Nonstore sales (think Amazon) were up 1.9 percent from a month ago. Motor vehicles and parts fell 2.0 percent. This behavior has been ongoing since April of 2022. 
The Bloomberg Econoday consensus expected retail sales would decline by 0.3 percent in May.
Instead, the Census Department reported flat retail sales with an upgrade to May from 0.1 to 0.3 percent.
Nominal Advance Retail Sales Percent Change Month-Over-Month
Motor vehicles and parts decline 2.0 percent vs a rise in online sales of 1.9 percent. Online merchandise is heavily imported goods.
Monthly noise masks long term trends but the online sales vs motor vehicles detail that caught my eye.
Advance Retail Sales Key Points
- Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for June 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $704.3 billion, virtually unchanged (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, but up 2.3 percent (±0.5 percent) above June 2023.
- Total sales for the April 2024 through June 2024 period were up 2.5 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The April 2024 to May 2024 percent change was revised from up 0.1 percent (±0.4 percent) to up 0.3 percent (±0.2 percent).
- Retail trade sales were down 0.1 percent (±0.5 percent) from May 2024, but up 2.0 percent (±0.5 percent) above last year.
- Nonstore retailers were up 8.9 percent (±1.4 percent) from last year, while food services and drinking places were up 4.4 percent (±2.1 percent) from June 2023.
Mirage of Inflation
The key phrase above is “adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes.”
Nonstore Retail Sales as Percent of Advance Retail Sales
Online Shopping Chart Notes
- I created the above chart by calculating the percentage of things bought online that normally can be purchased online.
- The calculation excludes the obvious, like gasoline and restaurant dining. It also excludes auto sales and grocery shopping.
- While one can buy groceries online, nearly everyone buys the vast majority of their groceries in physical stores. Things like Doordash are trivial vs eating out and will remain that way perpetually.
Judging from the lead chart and the chart above, online sales will soon pass the sales of motor vehicles and parts. The former is heavily imports.
Powell Says the US Really Needs to Fix the Unsustainable Deficit
On the fiscal reality side, please note Powell Says the US Really Needs to Fix the Unsustainable Deficit
Jerome Powell: I am very worried over time about the deficits that we are running. It’s not the Fed’s job. We don’t give Congress advice. But let me just say, that we are on an unsustainable path.
Is this a great economy or what?
July is going to be solid. My significant other has an e-tail business. While we are still moving into our new Red-state place, she accepted orders, but posted a delivery date in mid August. STILL people have been ordering, AND that’s more than March,April,May combined.
TAX REFUND TAX REFUND TAX REFUNDS!!!
It seems the so called EXPERTS forget this happens almost every year, where there is a boost in spending at the end of spring and beginning of summer!!!
It seems the so called EXPERTS have amnesia!!!
Which again will be played out in Aug/Sept!!!
Well it seems some people here, hate facts!!!
Are they part of the so called EXPERTS???
We’re waiting to buy a new car until next fall. Auto sales numbers will continue to decline as people can’t afford them with the prices and interest rates. Manufacturers will have to lower prices if they want to sell them. Cash buyers are also King.
Last week, we visited the Toyota dealer for an oil change and recall. The lot was 90% empty, zero Priuses’ one Carolla and a 40k Camry with ugly colors. What it did have were trucks running up to 77k. good luck
GOOD ARTICLE! WAIT UNTILTHE REAL REVISIONS TO THE BS NUMBERS COME OUT AND IT WILL REVISED DOWNWARD, TO A NEGATIVE NUMBER! THE ONLY FUTURE GROWTH WILL BE IN BANKRUTCIES AND INFLATION WILL KEEP GROWING! I’M RETIRED FROM DOING EXPERT TESTIMONY, PLUS FORENSIC ACCOUNTING & ANALYSIS IN TITLE11 CASES! I WORKED FOR BOTH DEBTORS AND CREDTIORS IN BANKRUPTCIES, MAINLY CHAPTER 11’S AND 12’S! I HAVE RECEIVED TWO CALLS FROM ATTORNEY’S IN THESE CASES TO DO SOME WORK! THAT IS DEFINITELY NOT A GOOD ECONOMIC INDICATOR!
THE STOCK MARKET TODAY IS NOT A GOOD INDICATOROF THE ECONOMY SINCE IT IS A WORLD WIDE MARKET TODAY! MOST ECONOMISTS ARE A JOKE! MISH DOES A GREAT JOB AND YOU CAN RELY ON WHAT HE SAYS TO BE REAL AND THAT IS IMPORTANT IN TODAYS DISINFORMATIONS, SPINNING OF FACTS, AND JUST PLAIN LIES!
2019-2024
Return on TIPS: approx 20%
Return on S&P500: approx 85%
My personal inflation: appox 60%
There is no hope without stocks.
60%, you have to be kidding.
TIPS are a total disaster, a racket. I made the mistake of buying some in an IRA, should have just stuck with 3 month bills and re-invested.
You lost money when inflation is applied…
Yes there is … 5-year return on gold is 67%.
Better be able to get out fast though I’d rather take my chances with bullion
Unsustainable path … We’re on the highway to hell.
Every report for decades all skewed by the underreporting of actual inflation. I continue to spend more but get less. Soon there will be more packaging than actual product with the shrinkflation. Home improvement products I have purchased in just 2021 are 2x, not +25% like the numbers would have you believe.
So each time this report comes out and they say it’s stronger than expected it’s simply because inflation is higher than reported.
Big Lots stores are suffering. Declining sales. More stores closing.
I continue to receive emails on sites I have ordered from in the past. These recent emails are continuous and are always offering deals…20%-50% off. I used to see one of these types of sales per quarter. Now I am seeing them weekly or better. I sense underlying weakness. Many people are struggling with rent, utilities, fuel, and food payments…stuff that you really need.
between them and the credit card offers (big rebates and 10+ months no interest) money going a lot further, for now
Several companies have reported a decline in unit sales, but revenue is up. I call that inflation. It is driven by the bifurcated wealth situation caused by horrible pandemic economic response by government and the Fed.
CPI adjusted nominal sales are only half way adjusted. Real retails sales are contracting rapidly. The good news is retail sales include a lot of unnecessary fluff purchases such as door dash, fast food, tattoos, hair and nails, pedicures, massage, non utilitarian college degrees, dog walkers, exercise coaches, commuter trucks, electric vehicles, cell phone upgrades, chat GPT investment, criminal invader walk around money, and Joe Biden campaign expenses.
Damnit there goes the recession, gone before it ever started.
Looks like this month is just catchup from much weaker numbers/reversion to trend. YTD sales are still below the 25th percentile since 2000 or so per BI. A bit of a headscratcher for control group sales, but makes sense in terms of a longer term weak trend with some significant monthly ups and downs. Bonds are distracted by the Trump trade/Zandi analysis still and not reacting like normal. Looks like the real yield curve is tight if you take consumer surveys of expected inflation as the inflation leg of the match. Also per BI, the difference between the pros that trade inflation swaps and the guy on the street’s expection is pretty big and wildly divergent, though the math for the inflation swaps seems to wrap a term premium into their numbers which isn’t appropriate. On balance, you have to think the probability is high that the 0.8% ex gas/autos reverses next month. One wonders if seasonals are at play as well given the home improvement/garden increases in June.
Eat DoorDash everyday and you’ll look like a Millennial, GenZ softie, I work with these people. A number of you look like older people in your 50’s and 60’s. You’ll be paying me rent too. I treated a younger coworker to this a week ago (last time I used DoorDash was 4 years ago on a motorcycle trip) and was shocked at the price for a lousy sandwich. I’m in California. He had the App on his phone and ordered. Almost 40 bucks. Last time I’m generous with DoorDash.
Don’t eat out all the time. Try to make your own meals. They have meals you can warm up and make your own veggies on the side and have a decent meal. I see younger folks with these sugar laden Starbucks drinks and XL power drinks. I’m in healthcare and just shake my head, but…I make money off your foolishness.
Like someone told me once, One man’s suffering is another man’s gold.
Gold and Silver exploding higher
Powell should expand on this; he has been too silent. He could point out the economic distortions that come from relying exclusively on monetary actions to constrain inflation.
Congress owns the Federal Reserve Act, they are literally Powell’s true boss. No way he’s going topiss them off. Powell’s official job is to manage rates and monetary base and that’s about it.
There are many many other economists whose job is to advise Congress. Why are they so silent as we head over the debt cliff?