Advance retail sales rose 1.0 percent in July from a negative 0.2 revision led by autos. I’m skeptical because of how auto sales are counted. 
We have an interesting set of Advance Retail Sales numbers from the Commerce Department this morning.
Advance Retail Sales Key Details (Commerce Dept and Mish Notes)
- CD: Advance Estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for July 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $709.7 billion, an increase of 1.0% (±0.5 percent) from the previous month.
- CD: The May 2024 to June 2024 percent change was revised from virtually unchanged (±0.5 percent) to down 0.2 percent (±0.2 percent).
- Mish: Motor vehicles sales rose 3.6 percent after falling 3.4 percent in June.
- Mish: Nonstore sales rose 0.2 percent after rising 2.2 percent last month.
- Mish: Food rose 0.9 percent.
- Mish: Excluding motor vehicles, sales rose 0.4 percent.
Nominal Advance Retail Sales Millions of Dollars
Advance Retail Sales Major Categories
Motor vehicle sales are counted when shipped from the manufacturer to the dealer no matter how long the cars sit on the lots. This grossly distorts auto sales.
Did manufactures ramp up ICE cars to as EVs sat on the lots unsold?
Spotlight on Motor Vehicle Sales
Motor vehicle sales have not gone anywhere since December of 2022.
In the same timeframe, nonstore sales are up 15.7 percent,
Food and Beverage Stores vs Eating Places
Consumers hit a brick wall on eating out in late 2023.
Mirage of Inflation
Inflation and three rounds of free money fiscal stimulus accounts for all of surge in spending since 2020.
Here’s the key phrase from the commerce department: Advance Estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for July 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $709.7 billion, an increase of 1.0% (±0.5 percent) from the previous month.
The above chart shows how much of the surge is due to inflation. Real sales are still below the covid free money spike of 233,400 in 2021.
Credit Card and Auto Loan Delinquencies Surge in the Second Quarter
Meanwhile, please note Credit Card and Auto Loan Delinquencies Surge in the Second Quarter
Spending is a mirage of debt and inflation. But credit stress is rising.
Last month we visited the Toyoda dealer for an oil change. The place was a ghost down, the sales desks were empty, no customers and the lot had only a few trucks and a couple of Corollas. A guy told me they can’t get cars so inventory was low.
at what price are the cars booked when leaving manufacturer. Wholesale or MSRP? either way it distorts the final recognized value or price at the final sales point
UsIng Mish’s Real and Nominal sales chart, I ‘guestimate’ an average annual growth rate for real sales from 1992 to 2024 at about 2.3%. Real sales since 2021 have not grown significantly, if at all.
BTW, that 2.3% +/- is about the same as the growth in population.
Now, where do data revisions fall in?
The ‘coconut psyop’ was a success.
We had a doddering, senile presidential candidate sure to lose against Trump because of voter rage about the poor economy.
The corporate media has constructed a completely different reality in less than 30 days. Trump is way behind in the polls and sure to lose. The economy is hunky dory.
The power of brain-washing–mass media will steal the election again.
Elections are fake.
It is possible, even likely, that vote counting was sufficiently exaggerated in favor of Biden to swing the election his way. This is borne out by the makeup of the vote-counters.
However, the biggest impact by far stares us in the face. People vote based on what they believed to be true, and best for them. Brain-washing CONTROLS those beliefs. Not only for left and right, but those in the middle as well.
Same or fewer widgets sold. They cost a lot more.
~6 weeks ago I posted my significant other received a ton of e-tail orders even though she put deliveries on pause while we moved. But the rush is definitely over.
Reports of the economy’s death have been greatly exaggerated. The Fed should do it’s first quarter point cut in November, period. That is the optimal cut size and optimal timing for current conditions.
PS If they cut in September, inflation will likely take off again within eight months. It is a mistake.
This inflation is based on shortages. Lockdowns and other brain-dead ideas that increased pricing. It also severely screwed housing. Interest rates won’t fix this; it’s not a financial issue. We are reliving the 1970s stagflation. The only thing increasing rates will do is cause government debt to be expensive. The government is the largest debtor. Yes, rates were too low for too long, but raising them here is also wrong-headed. I think the primary reason for the rate increase is the insane war talk. The Fed knows war is the number one inflation creator. Vietnam destroyed Brenton Woods, for example.
There was a brief period of shortages, but they are now gone, and have been gone for a good while. If anything, prices should have fallen long ago (other than the Red Sea shipping debacle). Recent inflation has been real inflation, and it is still a problem. The touted Supercore CPI was 4.73% in yesterday’s report. No one is suggesting rates be raised further. The current debate is the appropriate time to cut.
This month I bought a toilet seat and some flashlight batteries. So I guess I splurged.
You should be skeptical, I’m in the car business and it’s dead right now
I expected this. Summer is when more people go shopping. Slow/low growth and declining inflation is the fact of the day. Gas is below $4/gallon where I am after being closer to $5 during the spring. I still expect 2025 to be the year when the shit hits the fan regarding state, local and federal debt at the same time. I see signs of contagion from debt in China that is currently collapsing. I think we may get a global contagion in 2025 based on one or more countries that hold US debt needing their money back.
Kamala Harris isn’t going to get a clean slate from Biden
The whiny 1% lost money on TLT since Jan 2020, after Trump and the Fed raided their bank accounts, distributing “their” money to the crumbs, before raising rates and stabbing them in the back, like nobody else.
Yahoo Finance proclaims: ‘Stocks soar as US economy keeps roaring.’
LMAO. All stock market indices up 1+% to keep pace with inflation.
Motor vehicle up the max, online min. No negativity in July. New vehicle cost $48K car payments over $700/M. WMT gap up.
THIS IS THE INVENTORY OF
VOLKSWAGEN ID 4’s
AT A LOCAL DEALERSHIP
HERE IN QUEBEC CITY CANADA
Date QUANTITY
Aug 10 450
YES PLUS 100 THIS WEEK
Aug 3 351
Jul 27 322
Jul 20 282
Jul 13 267
Jun 29 266
Jun 22 246
Jun 15 206
Jun 8 169
Jun 1 146
May 25 125
May 18 95
Apr 27 40
THEY ARE NOT SELLING IT IS A BIG JOKE
Wow! VW and Ford crushed their EV aspirations over the last few years. Way out over their skis releasing beta products and now they are reaping the consequences.
man that chart of nominal vs retail sales is a killer Misha. The bloomberg machine has once more ramped up the illogical and hysterical “look everyone, the eeconomy is fine, CUT rates NOW” rhetoric. You should post that chart on X
If the economy is fine why cut rates? The disconnect is pretty obvious.
Cut rates because Wall St. depends on life support. Otherwise, no bonuses..
Agree…. compounding’s a bitch.
With inflation, to stay even, every company’s earnings ought to be up 20% since Biden came to power. Are they? (A: yes, mostly …)
So, basically, real sales have flat-lined since Covid ended. Maybe it’s time to end the fallacy of 2% inflation stimulating growth, and skewer the Fed for controlling interest rates and unemployment. .Free markets, by definition, efficiently balance demand and supply, and at the lowest price.
Everyone keeps discounting the overshoot in pricing brought on by excess pandemic monetary conditions. A slight correction in pricing is expected and healthy. A one or two percent drop is exactly what the doctor ordered.
How much did you wager on that .50 cut?
My canned goods and bear mace purchases pushed us higher
Algo market says off to the races again. Algos don’t buy groceries or rent apartments.
You’re right on, Mike, price inflation ain’t growth.
Is this why the yield on the 10 year is up by .12% today?
Looks like it to me. Just looking at intra-day price movements, price on the 10T dropped like a rock at the same time as the announcement.
Wonky yield curve. Still inverted, with 30day at 5.33, the 30month at (about) 3,86, and the 30yearr at 4.19. Compared to 12 months ago, the long end is dropping, the short end is increasing. Expectations for inflation (and interest rates) depend on the Fed’s continuing manipulation.
My earlier comment is a lousy explanation, omitting the 2-7 yr yield: Go here for real time yield/price changes here: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/bonds