Forecasters accurately predicted tariff front-running would accelerate durable goods sales. 
The Bloomberg Econoday economists’ consensus was for retail sales to increase 1.4 percent in March based on “front-running tariff price increases on durable goods, especially autos, in March.”
The consensus estimate hit the number on the nose.
Advance Retail Sales
The Advance Retail Sales report for March shows the expected front-running of tariffs.
Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for March 2025, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $734.9 billion, up 1.4 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, and up 4.6 percent (±0.5 percent) from March 2024.
Total sales for the January 2025 through March 2025 period were up 4.1 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The January 2025 to February 2025 percent change was unrevised from up 0.2 percent.
Retail trade sales were up 1.4 percent (±0.5 percent) from February 2025, and up 4.6 percent (±0.5 percent) from last year. Motor vehicle and parts dealers were up 8.8 percent (±1.8 percent) from last year, while nonstore retailers were up 4.8 percent (±1.4 percent) from March 2024.
The key phrase is in italics. These are nominal sales. It’s real (inflation-adjusted) sales that feed GDP.
Month-Over-Month Details
- Total: 1.4
- Excluding Motor Vehicles 0.5
- Excluding Motor Vehicles and Gas: 0.8
- Motor Vehicles: 5.3
- Food Service: 1.8
- Gas Stations: -2.5
- Nonstore: 0.1
- Department Stores: -0.3
- Food Stores: 0.2
- General Merchandise 0.6
Advance Retail Sales Millions of Dollars Seasonally Adjusted
Advance Retail Sales Select Categories
Retail Sales Motor Vehicles and Parts 2025-03
Motor vehicles are counted as sales when they are shipped from the manufacturer to the dealer, not when a consumer actually buys them.
Real vs Nominal Advance Retail Sales
Real vs Nominal Advance Retail Sales Detail
The strong consumer is little more than a mirage of inflation.
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Mish I clicked the link for Advanced Retail sales and when I look at say Autos, everything for Mar 25 is a * meaning it’s not there yet. They are *expecting* an increase but this report doesn’t have actual numbers in it yet for March. So how can they be sure there will be a 5.3% increase until we see the final numbers (presumably next month)?
There was no change in Feb 25 vs Feb 24 for new car sales (Feb 25 was actually lower than Feb 24 by just over 1%) so will be curious to see actual March numbers. Especially since dealers typically carry 60+ days of inventory so any tariffs going into effect on Mar should not show for 2 more months (unless dealers plan to rip off the public for the tariff amount on cars already here which is what Trump warned against doing).
The first “*” relates to margins of error on the forecast.
The series that I think you refer are standard notices in the advance report – no details yet.
Full report in about a week I think
Motor vehicles and food service are both conspicuous consumption similar to tattoos, nose rings, gold teeth, and tats. The American consumer is flush, profligate, and may not feel the tariffs.
We will feel it when our nose rings and tattoo needles stop arriving in Chinese container ships. We’ll really feel it when our Chinese fentanyl stops arriving.
The issue with the title is that in a financialized economy, frontrunning is always the norm. A certain pile of credit needs to created or the economy will nosedive.
This can be achieved by low-low interest rates, or government spending.
One can say that credit pulls the economy like a donkey by the rope.
US Consumer is not strong they are just stronger then most other Nations populaces.
Most consumers are not savvy enough to front run Tariffs especially when shelves are still full with goods.
NAHB housing market index came in slightly better then figured. Housing shortage still drives demand. Will take a few quarters to turn things around. Some asking price reductions coupled with some foreclosure sales occurring. As job market stabilizes financing viability comes into play.
BTW, the thing that caught my eye is Starlink is able to exfiltrate any data and provide it to Russia. To me this calls into question many things over the last few years. Methinks Musk has a little too much power and now it all makes a little too much sense. Don’t say you weren’t warned. Musk and Thiel and Putin are the men behind the stage. Trump is just the face of it all.
Able. The CIA is able to supply the Russians with prospective targets for American forces in UA, or Ukrainian targets for Russian forces. So what?
As Elon Musk famously said, I wrote Paypal software that has access to millions of credit cards. Why would I be interested in social security numbers? Elon Musk is a wealth creator and a patriot. Petty theft and treason are not his style.
I said many months ago that if Trump won, then the US would effectively become another Russian state. We are there now. Our government is compromised to the point of FSB and other Russian state entities having access to US government systems.
https://www.mediaite.com/tv/whistleblower-accuses-doge-of-letting-russians-access-government-accounts-in-shocking-security-breach/
Get a hold of yourself, man.
Paranoia & conspiracy hysteria has gotten a hold of you.
A crisis of confidence.
“The strong consumer is little more than a mirage of inflation.”
Isn’t that the point of a 2% inflation target?
the relatively weathy can buy a car in advance, same with computers and phones
the real problem will come when the price increases hit the outlets of the cheap foreign goods the poorer people depend on
until then, no real PR problems
Yes! So many folks are stocking up like the end-time is coming. Not only stocking up on durables but figuring out how to be more self-sufficient, such as vegetable gardening, canning, freezing, eating more at home, smart food shopping (maybe food coops will return), building emer funds (those that can afford it), planning how to cut future discretionary spending, etc.
So the US makes very few cars that Europeans want to buy, but the Europeans do make great luxury cars that Americans want to buy. So, now Americans have to pay a tax, also known as a tariff, to the government in order to buy a European luxury car because Europeans aren’t buying the cars from the US that they don’t want. Notice that I called it exactly what it is, a tax. Tariffs are not income, not revenue, they are taxes.
Do I have this straight? This is how Trump is going to get government out of our lives?
The extra revenue is required to fund the tax break to the rich.
Wait until the prices at Wall-Mart or Pharma prices start to reflect the tariffs on Chinese imports. Low-income consumers will be gob-smacked. But hedge-fund managers and corporate equity holders need a tax break.
When did Trump say he wants to get government out of our lives? You’re thinking of the old Republican Party (now called RINOS). The new Populist Republicans want very much to control your life. They require you to live completely with their values, not yours. We are moving into the greatest change in the US since its founding.
Europeans and Japanese design quality cars for discriminating customers. Detroit manufactures for the mass market because only in America can a broom pusher afford a personal vehicle. Planned obsolescence and design to fail is Detroit style.
Car sales exploded. My bet: despite falling Buick sales. KIA and Hyundai should
expand in the US fast, before becoming a new Buick. Volvo and Buick price might have plunge along with the 737.
The tariff induced Last Hurrah … 5 additional equivalent trading days for the Incipient Global Equity Crash Low.