Consumers went on a huge buying spree in March with upward revisions to February. Online sales surged 2.7 percent.
Advance Retail Sales Detail
- Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for March 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $709.6 billion, up 0.7 percent from the previous month, and up 4.0 percent above March 2023.
- Total sales for the January 2024 through March 2024 period were up 2.1 percent from the same period a year ago.
- Retail trade sales were up 0.8 percent from February 2024, and up 3.6 percent above last year.
- Nonstore retailers were up 11.3 percent from last year, while food services and drinking places were up 6.5 percent from March 2023.
Unexpectedly Hot
Sales unexpectedly hot in March, up 0.7 percent vs a Bloomberg Econoday consensus of 0.4 percent.
And the Census Department revised February to +0.9 percent from +0.6 percent
After a bad January, consumers went all out in February and March.
Those are nominal totals. Real (inflation-adjusted sales) were also on the hot side.
Real Advance Retail Sales Percent Change Month-Over-Month
In real (inflation-adjusted) terms. sales rose 0.3 percent in March, and 0.5 percent in February, after declining 1.2 percent in January.
Advance Retail Sales Major Categories
Winners and Losers for the Month
- Total Sales: +0.7%
- Excluding Motor Vehicles and Parts: +1.1%
- General Merchandise: +1.1%
- Food Stores: +0.5%
- Food Service: +0.4
- Motor Vehicles and Parts: -0.7%
- Department Stores: -1.1%
- Nonstore Retailers: +2.7%
- Gas stations: +2.1%
In general, people bought more of about everything but cars and they did so online.
Bond Yields Surge
If you are a bond market bull, it’s been a tough month. Let’s review what happened, why, and what’s ahead.
On April 12, I noted It’s Been a Bloody Month for Bond Market Bulls
As you might expect, the carnage continued today.
US Treasury Yields
- 30-year: 4.74 vs 4.64 in the above chart
- 10-year: 4.65 vs 4.55 in the above chart
- 5-year: 4.66 vs 4.61 in the above chart
- 2-year: 4.98 vs 4.97 in the above chart
The CPI Rose Sharply in March
Yields rose sharply on April 10 on news The CPI Rose Sharply in March Led by Shelter and Gasoline
Yields are up again today, killing a small rally since the CPI news.
I warned about pending bond market carnage on April 3 in Ominous Technical Trends for US Treasury Bulls, Three Durations
Spent $38 bucks on seed this year.New record for me. Put 25 tomato plants out yesterday for hardening off. Spinach, Turnip, Arugula, Beets, already in ground..
Peppers are sprouting in house, cherries, pears, apples, peach, plum,
paw paw at various stage of bloom. Persimmon, figs, pomegranate, grapes coming out of dormancy.
Keep believing J Powell knows what he is doing and don’t forget to click your heels together three times so everything going to be alright,
Only thing waiting for warmer temps are Gherkins and Charentais melons. Garlic wintered over and growing strong.
Extend and pretend…..
Breakfast and lunch places are now charging $15-25/entree. I’m talking non-fancy places. This is not sustainable.
Except it’s going to be sustainable. Eating out of the home will become the purview of the wealthy for the next few years. This should cause a decrease in overall sales volume and in turn that should cause layoffs and if not a recession then a period of great malaise (which I’d argue we’re already in). At some point, wages will catch up and those prices won’t feel so offensive anymore. That’s not what any of us want to happen (most people want prices to revert back to where they “make sense”), but that’s what history says will happen.
before rates can be cut –> lower, rates will have to go up & stay up.
some of us have been saying this for over a year now.
Powell’s Fed is NOT Yellen/Bernanke’s Fed.
Powell is prepared to defend the $USD, not bubbles+bonuses.
The non-US western/industrial economy is contracting, driving capital into the USA. This dynamic will 1) forestall US recession, and 2) fuel $USD inflation.
As US economic allies slowly collapse, it will be difficult for US markets & the Fed to cope with the sheer volume of capital pouring into US.
Japan & Korea blazed the trail, and now German+Italian corp./private capital are following… they are now here in the US w/ roadmaps & shovels, seeking to re-locate plant/equipment+people to tax/business-friendly US jurisdictions.
Right-to-work states will continue to grow/boom, and closed/union states will continue to hemorrhage employers & tax base.
If you don’t already see/recognize this macro-trend, then you really need to re-calibrate & seek additional (real) data sources.
The month over month numbers have a lot of noise. Looking at the year over year, and 3 month rolling average suggest this is not “Hot” or a surge but only lukewarm at best/
With REAL inflation over 8%, what does that math come out to for REAL sales?
Any stat on Units sold to favor out inflation?
Yard sale season is back! Now I can go shyopping.
Eventually the junkie has to face the pain of withdrawal.
I would think a lot of it was planned new year activities. My wife and I used to always plan a trip for the start of the year. Typically it was in the Caribbean. Planned in September/October and left around February/March usually. Didn’t want to miss the holidays at home, and holiday travel for relatives, and local get togethers.
Some was of course tax refunds, which is very typically spent as free money, so to speak. Also Christmas gifts in the form of Gift Cards get spent then too. Some people are using CC’s too, as a means of keeping the party rolling on, so to speak.
An anecdotal observation, was at a fav Jewish deli restaurant yesterday at 2:00 in the afternoon and it was the busiest I’ve seen it sans Jewish holidays ever.
I mean, yeah. What else would you expect? Especially at Dow 40K and with the military machine flush with newly digitized taxpayer loan-notes.
Like I said, the cash keeps rolling in, it’s a booming economy and has been for the investor class. GDP forecast bumped up to 2.8% so there is plenty of money train to ride out there. $$
The economy is so good that even Goldman Sachs is making money!
Yep, that’s why there’s been no recession…despite the many reasons why there should have been one by now (according to a lot of smart old-time investors anyway). We’re printing money as if we were still in the GFC or fighting WW2. That money goes first to the investor class and secondly to the welfare class, and the middle class gets squeezed further and further out of existence. Yet, because all of it gets averaged in the datasets, the reported National stats still look healthy as can be. Recession for some, boom times for others. Kind of like France in the late 1700’s.
Retails sales are not keeping pace with real government unadjusted inflation.
More people shop internet to save gas and avoid playing the afroamerican knockout game.
Inflation is a helluva drug.
I wonder if the jump in retail sales has anything to do with the increase in tax refunds?
“…The average refund was $3,011, a 4.6% increase from last April’s average of $2,878…”
https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/irs-delivers-strong-2024-tax-filing-season-expands-services-for-millions-of-people-on-phones-in-person-and-online-with-expanded-funding#:~:text=The%20average%20refund%20was%20%243%2C011,Improved%20phone%20service.