We don’t have BLS reports but we do have ADP and Revelio.
Please consider the Revelio Labs Nonfarm Payroll Report for November 2025.
Non-farm employment measures the total employment in the US (public and private) leveraging individual level data collected from online professional profiles. The monthly change in this total employment is a proxy for number of jobs added in the economy during the month. In November, the US economy lost 9 thousand jobs, predominantly driven by employment losses in the retail trade and manufacturing sectors.
Tariffs went into effect in April with May the first full month on inpact.
Nonfarm Payroll Changes by Month
- 2025-05: -35,000
- 2025-06: -9,000
- 2025-07: +20,000
- 2025-08: -40,000
- 2025-09: +38,000
- 2025-10: -15,000
- 2025-11: -9,000
January-April: +240,000
May-November: -50,000
Please note Bad jobs report caused by shutdown, deportations — not tariffs, Lutnick says
Excuse me for pointing out that poor jobs reports in 2025 started with Trump’s tariffs.
Month-Over-Month Change in Nonfarm Payrolls by Industry
Education and Health Services was the big winner in November. That’s not good news.
Year-Over-Year Change in Nonfarm Payrolls by Industry
Revelio Labs Employment Change from Year Ago
Key Year-Over-Year Results
- Total Nonfarm payrolls are up by 186,000 from a year ago.
- Education and Health Services provided 436,400 of the total. Combined, everything else is negative.
- Financial Activities gained 146,300
- Professional and Business Services gained 94,600
- Leisure and Hospitality was the big loser, down 261,600.
- Retail Trade dropped 98,300.
- Manufacturing shed 73,900
Trump is no responsible for the huge decline from 2022 through 2024.
However, Trump must take ownership for 2025. He bragged multiple time he would improve jobs, inflation, and manufacturing.
He improved none of the above, and is getting hammered in polls and surveys for that.
Related Posts
December 4, 2025: Challenger Reports Employers Announced 71,321 Job Cuts in November
Announcements imply future, not immediate, layoffs and unemployment claims.
No Surprise
None of this is a surprise. I have been discussing, and predicting this all year.
The tariff impact on small businesses is starting to take a big toll on small businesses.
Unlike large employers, small businesses have fewer means of tariff avoidance and less ability to hold inventory or eat the tariffs.
December 5, 2025: Welcome to Tariff Complexity Hell, No One Knows What Trump Will Do
Tariffs are a tax, and complexity adds to that tax.
December 3, 2025 : Small Businesses Drop 120,000 Jobs in November, ADP Total Down 32,000
It’s another grim month according to ADP.
Change in Small, Medium, Large Employment Details
- Small: -197,000
- Medium: +275,000
- Large: +1,012,000
Not a bit of this is a surprise to any thinking person. And Trump owns all of it for overpromising and underdelivering.
I have finally had enough of Ben. I cannot take his support for illegal actions, xenophobia, war crimes, or Trump’s attacks on the constitution. It is a waste of my time and this blog refuting such things. If you think this is some sort of free speech issue, then you have no idea what the constitution says.
Obviously it’s not a legal free speech issue, but there’s always the risk of creating an echo chamber or silo where all the allowed commenters have the same opinion, more or less. I’m not saying Ben should have been tolerated in perpetuity. Just pointing out the risk.
I suppose I am on probation for not having toed the line enough on condemning Trump’s actions. I believe as the majority believes that stopping the boats is legal . I also believe that unfettered immigration is very bad for the country too. As to the Constitution there are different interpretations and that is completely normal. Let’s remember that the Bill of Rights was added the Constitution over three months after the Constitution had been ratified because already the document needed revision. I do not believe in the Libertarian creed to which you adhere.
You’ve been around forever. You’re ok.
You in the other hand are not but you do take the Mish-correct Anti-Trump line.
Awww, boo boo…
You have a civil manner 🙂
The Bill of Rights were written after the original draft was prepared to get the states to agree to its ratification.
I really think he was paid. He seemed too smart to believe what he’s been saying.
Trump claimed a “deal”, Bessent today said there was a “deal”, but…
Soybeans Tank as USTR Says No China Deal: Pulls Corn, Wheat DownSoybean futures ended sharply lower on Friday, with the January contract down $.33 for the week. Matt Bennett with AgMarket.Net says the poor close was tied to comments from USTR Greer confirming that the U.S. and China have not reached a purchase agreement yet on soybeans.
By Michelle Rook
Updated December 05, 2025 04:26 PM
Imagine what will happen to the business and financial activities sectors and the 240K combined YOY job gains, when the equities go south. In 2005, I described a simple 4-phase time-based fractal series for the asset-debt macroeconomy’s equity self-ordering valuation growth and decay in the Main Page of The Economic Fractalist blog. (The large scale US hegemonic Fractal series has since been identified to have begun in 1807 vice 1858) For the SPX/QQQ/ACWI, the 7 April to 5 Dec 2025 fractal growth series of 34/69/68 days :: exactly matches the x/2-2.5x/2x (2005 identified) fractal growth pattern – replete with the nonlinear lower low gap between days 68 and 69 of the 69 day 2nd fractal. What will be the administration’s approval rating in November 2026? Will there still be 28% diehards left? Time will tell.
stagflation. i have some old bell bottoms from 70s HS………..might have high resale value in some of my family member’s vintage retail shop for the kids. i gotta look in the 5th floor attic for my old vintage bongs.
The market for collectibles has collapsed since COVID money ran out. You’re better off just using the bong.
thanks for the opinion. i’ll consider it, counsellor.
I am no fan of Trump but he is right about the raging inflation starting under covid policy in 2020 and then continuing under Biden. If he points out that Fed policy led to all the economic booms and busts over the last 50 years and that we need a new system of monetary and fiscal policy, public opinion would decisively turn in his favor.
Regarding birthright citizenship and saying this as an immigrant who came to the US legally to become an American citizen, I think he is partly right to challenge birthright citizenship. If SCOTUS hands him a partial victory and rules that those born in the US to those who came here illegally or on temporary work visas including H1 and other temporary work visas, it will vindicate him amongst those who came here through legal means like myself. For all of Trump’s faults, most citizens know there is some truth and merit to what he is saying.
Aside from whether or not birthright citizenship is a desirable part of the law, as long as it is law then people born in the USA under whichever circumstances are in the US exactly as legally as you are. Both paths are equally legal.
Not certain about that . I said this when Trump first challenged it. I think they wouldn’t have taken up the case unless it was open to interpretation. It likely comes down to case history and interpretation of a few key phrases.
Supreme Court’s decision on birthright citizenship will depend on its interpretation of one key phrase
https://theconversation.com/supreme-courts-decision-on-birthright-citizenship-will-depend-on-its-interpretation-of-one-key-phrase-271064
The oddity of all this is it will come down to arcane case law that no one alive knows about. But there must be something to this if they are actually going to entertain opening the can of worms on historical cases of birthright citizenship. I suspect they will end up saying there are exceptions to it and hand Trump and Stephen Miller a small victory that has consequences for decades to come.
The court would have to overturn the Wong Kim Ark precedent. That might be tough.
Wong Kim Ark’s parents were legal immigrants.
Now, I’m not a guru of this case, but that’s NOT what we’re talking about here. We’re talking about illegal immigration.
Be that as it may, I agree, but SCOTUS did overturn Roe v Wade, so it’s not entirely without precedent.
Like Dred Scott.
– Trump is right about the raging inflation starting under covid policy in 2020 and then continuing under Biden. > 100% Correct! You could pile on, and add the NGO, DOGE, USAID, ETC. Debacles in here as well. That’s money NOT well spent, and now gone…
– Regarding birthright citizenship and saying this as an immigrant who came to the US legally to become an American citizen, I think he is partly right to challenge birthright citizenship.
> 100% Correct! It’s an absolute joke to say it’s proper, as the intent was for slaves to become Citizens.
>> It’s as simple as answering a few very simple questions.
1. Did we have the means for Country to Country Travel by all Countries, and for all People?
2. Did we know anything about the World, other than where we lived at the time?
3. Can all groups of people, easily come together abruptly, and coexist without issues relating to their ethnicity, religious affiliates, Wealth, Food, etc.
I could easily list 100 more, but your answer to just these few will give you your ultimate answer…
– For all of Trump’s faults, most citizens know there is some truth and merit to what he is saying >Yes!
By your logic and using the same examples, the 2nd amendment was never intended to allow people machine guns, AR-15s, pistols with 100 rounds in them.
At the time the Constitution was written, people had single fire, front loading muskets. Perhaps that should be the limit to gun ownership?
Nice try MPO, but you’re leaving out one crucial detail.
“Weapons” for “Defense” was the issue, and that has not changed, from the DAY they became available until TODAY.
BRC For Slaves, AFTER slavery was ended. EVERYTHING has changed since then. Most importantly, the Original Law and intent of the law was no longer an issue. As slavery was gone, so was the needed law. No such thing as BRC was addresses, as it wasn’t a thing, issue, or something pertinent.
I give you a “C” for effort, because I know You Knew Better…
NO!
The writers of the 2A would have known that law abiding citizens in 20th century wouldn’t be walking around with muskets for self-defense.
However, the core issue at hand in the 14th Amendment is the interpretation of the jurisdiction language. Moreover, the authors would have never anticipated that there would be this massive illegal invasion from the south. Nor would they have envisioned that we would had a brain-dead president who was so UN-AMERICAN that he would create OPEN BORDERS chaos.
FYI – Machine guns are properly regulated as dangerous & UNUSUAL. What’s at issue is the fact that 30M+ semi-automatic rifles are in common & 99.99% legal use. Personally, I’m not an advocate of FRTs & uber high-capacity magazines, but I also don’t think suppressors or SBRs should be regulated under the NFA.
A 30 round AR is adequately effective against USUAL school children. Who needs more?
With respect – your post sounds nutty.
Interestingly, the 14th amendment was written because of the 2nd amendment. Southern white racists were attempting to use the law to take weapons away from newly freed slaves so that they could intimidate them into taking their land. By making the Bill of Rights apply to the states, they unwittingly destroyed the original intent of the 2nd amendment, that the federal government couldn’t take over the free states by disarming their militias, into the modern view that every nutcase can own weapons to kill children. They may have assumed the people were too intelligent and reasonable to let that happen, but they didn’t have access to Fox News at the time.
Private individuals at that time had their own cannons and warships, too.
repeating air rifles have been around much longer
Girardoni air rifle – Wikipedia
Unfortunately the report does not give many details on the manufacturing sector’s drop and just gives a broad figure. Maybe the paid subscription does. I don’t know. However you can find it by looking at individual industries. What we find is something interesting and that is the AI boom is sucking capital and material resources out of the traditional manufacturing sectors such as construction and non-tech manufacturing and into directly AI-related sectors such as data-centers, semiconductor and the corresponding infrastructure. That is why the figures show a big surge in big company hiring and weakness in smaller ones. Something close to it also happened in the dot-com era of the 1990s. The traditional manufacturing sectors are now paying borrowing costs 1-2% above that of the tech sector which is also what we saw back then. Factory and warehouse construction has been side-lined and we all know that the competition for electricity has caused the traditional manufacturing sectors to be disadvantaged.
One should point out that 41% of the drop in manufacturing is from the automobile sector and the aftereffects of the Boeing strike on the aeronautical sector. The autos is of course due to Canada-specific tariffs but other than that we do see the cannibalization of the traditional manufacturing sector by AI’s capex needs and as well as by AI productivity gains allowing headcounts to be trimmed.
Put together and this economy is tech-driven to a higher extent than before. Long-term this is excellent but short-term there are distortions which we see in age growth. White-collar manufacturing wages (anything related to AI) are showing very strong growth while blue-collar manufacturing wages are lagging. AI is pulling talent away from one and into the other. The interesting thing is that in the dot.com era the growth was almost exclusively in the coasts. This time around the growth is occurring in the Midwest and South because AI needs infrastructure and energy as opposed to just software as in the 1990s. The coasts are still very important in the innovation/talent but it is good to see a better balance this time.
Going forward every economic analysis is going to have to take in AI dominance of the economy to understand what is going on.
Quick question Doug, do you think we even have the electricity needed to go full blown with AI? My understanding is that the AI-related data-centers consume way more than some people understood, in terms of where will it come from.
We couldn’t even build Battery Charging Stations for EV’s because of the need to “Capture the Energy”. I think Biden built like 5 at a cost of a Billion or something crazy like that? EV’s are coming nonetheless, and so is Solar (more captured energy needed) and Windmills (more captured energy needed).
Hi-Tech equally consumes energy at high paces as well, as does a lot of New Innovations here, or on the way. Most will require yet more captured energy.
I am thinking we have a big problem here, in the coming technologies and our ability to service such things, and all together… “How” is a Big Question?
We have lots of cheap natural gas and with that we can actually generate electricity at a lower cost than China so it makes sense to locate the data centers in areas like the Gulf, parts of the Midwest and Pennsylvania. Availability is the key though and many new data centers are being built off-grid with a dedicated powerplant hooked into a pipeline. That should be the future but the build-out takes time. We can have enough if enough money and resources are put in and looking at the incredibly high numbers we see of capex I would judge that we will have enough. Also keep in mind that the new chips coming out are much more energy efficient than the prior ones and that will help too. The real problem is NIMBY which is prevalent in many areas so you have to plan around it. Jensen Huang said that Trump’s “drill baby drill” was the best thing for AI in the US and it was.
First. Let me congratulate you on a well written summary of how a combination of tariffs and AI data center build-out are hampering traditional manufacturing while keeping the US economy from falling into recession. I agree with what you wrote.
Second. I mostly agree with your second post. The US has a lot of natural gas to power the electricity generation needed. However, there are a few problems that we need to overcome.
1. A 2-4 year wait list for natural gas turbines. The nest result is that we can only add 5-10 GW of new generation per year when we need 40-60 GW. Which means the bulk of new generation must come from solar and wind.
2. Natural gas was cheap a few months ago. But just a little cold weather and prices have gone up dramatically. Such is the problem with relying on gas.
3. Our electricity prices are much higher than China’s.
4. Drill baby drill is a slogan. Actual drilling is down significantly this year.
1) There is a backlog for turbines and the suppliers are not investing enough by themselves so the AI companies are partnering with them to give them capital to expand more rapidly so they are no longer capital-constrained. Additionally turbines for other uses are being repurposed to work as gas turbines and is a promising development because many of them are already idle. As you said solar and wind will help too.
2) Gas is abundant so supplies can easily be expanded since the demand is high. When I said US natgas is cheap compared to China’s, it is something like 30-40% cheaper. That is a major advantage.
3) Electricity in China is cheap because it is heavily subventioned. Most comes from coal and oil and that is not cheap since the oil is imported and the coal is either imported or of low quality. Renewables are very expensive too but the government picks up the tab.
4) Yes it’s a slogan but Oil and gas output is up this year over 2% because the wells are more efficient so there is less need to drill.
1. The backlog in turbines is not because of a lack of capital. It is because manufacturers were caught flat footed when demand soared after 2 decades of tepid growth. And it will take 3-7 years to build the manufacturing capacity that is needed to meet the new levels of demand.
2. Perhaps I misunderstood your comment on electricity prices. You were referring to electricity prices from natural gas and I was referring to overall electricity prices being lower in China. Assuming you were referring to the price of electricity from natural gas; that is irrelevant to the comparison because China only gets 3% of it’s electricity from natural gas, while the US gets 43% of its electricity from natural gas.
3. Yes. China still generates over 50% of its electricity from coal. It does NOT use oil to generate electricity because oil is way too expensive to use. You are completely wrong to say that renewables are too expensive. They are, in fact, the cheapest source of electricity available today. Which is why China is building so much of them. In 2024, China added 420 GW of solar and wind, coal 19 GW (net), hydro 14 GW, nuclear 2 GW.
per the tons of experts, left and right on CSPAN for the past few years, i believe your analysis on cost of power in China v. USA is dead on, and i believe Doug is just plain wrong. China has built more infrastructure in the short 25 years of the 21st century than the USA did for the entire century of the 1900s. our hay day. will life still be luxurious in usa and eu for the next century. no doubt. but china will keep lifting tens of millions from abject poverty into the luxurious world all amerikans have lived for the past 80 years. even our poor and illiterate and stupid, are obese with fancy shoes and plenty of food. the only place in USA that’s 3rd world is some of the reservations. my 13 years in AZ attending school with many native amerikans was an eye opener. some of my pals had no running water back home.
Yep. China has become an infrastructure, energy, and supply chain powerhouse in just two decades. Which is amazing, since central planning has rarely worked like this anywhere else in the world. How they managed to successfully identify where the world is going and what the world is needing two decades in advance is pure genius.
They correctly identified that the future involved the electrification of all economies, then built the supply chains needed to supply the industries that would dominate those future economies. They did this both domestically and in other countries all over the world. Now they are dominant in wind, solar, chips, batteries, rare earths, evs, drones, high speed electric rail, etc. They have a good chance to dominate AI because they have the abundant and cheap electricity needed and we don’t.
Natural gas is what data centers are going to use in Az. The Corp Comm just approved a new pipeline.
Our residential bills have gone up 20% to pay for the pipeline. kph costs have doubled in the last few years.
Water in Az is also a big issue. The data centers are building just outside of the cities, in county controlled areas to get easier approval. The cities have denied permits due to water shortages.
Yep. Data Centers will raise electricity prices for many reasons, including the need for additional infrastructure. Large data centers consume as much electricity AND water as a major city. The water is needed primarily for cooling. In areas with little water available, this will also increase water prices and “could” force water rationing for everyone else.
Many data centers will have to be built in countries with adequate cheap power and water. Not a lot of viable places available in the US.
Over 2 million migrants self-deported or were forcibly removed from the country since January. Some of them had reported jobs — but tariffs — sure whatever.
Britain is deporting 10s of thousands there on work visas. India decided to try to export its population problem to world when Modi came into power. The time has come for the equal and opposite force of this.
The birthright citizenship case is being taken up by SCOTUS. Curiously they could have easily upheld multiple federal court rulings on this.. I have a strong suspicion what they will do is hand Trump a partial victory on this and invalidate any birthright citizenship of anyone here illegally or on a work visa. This will effectively nullify the citizenship of millions that were born here and force DACA recipients to be deported. Millions of others who were born while their parents were here on a work visa will have to reapply for citizenship if their parents are now citizens. If their parents are greencard holders, their status will be revoked to greencard status.
This is the exact outcome Trump amd Stephen Miller want.
The new trend is that everything is excellent. I am loving it.
For many here, Immigrants are the answer to everything. It’s either 1. All of them are working and taking away jobs from Americans, or 2. None of them will ever work because they are all on government cash for life and have no incentive to work. 3. They all drive really expensive cars, then get in long food bank lines, which keep Americans from getting the food they need to survive. 4. Which is why Americans are all so fat.
Love the logic!
We should add 5. immigrants are why the rest of us are all so stupid.
Scroedinger’s immigrant.
You wont see it printed elsewhere but some of the cause of the inflation is less trust in the dollar. A longer term decoupling is well underway
Well – No
Less trust is a symptom not a cause
Its a cause downstream. The upstream root cause is the debt problem.
Lower rates wont help this time. The world has partly decoupled itself from the US consumer due to the sheer unrealiability of the US political system. 2026 is going bring debt shock into the US. Im seeing a massive deflationary spiral in home and car prices. The Fed can try their bag of tricks but AI is both deflationary(incomes) and inflationary (energy prices). It is the exactly the worst of both worlds.
The social security snapshot came out with both September and October reports recently. I looked them over and 241k new socialists were initiated onto the social security platform those months. The total new additions to social security from January thru October is 1.975 million so far.
Because some people retire and don’t take social security until later, the number of retirees this year likely exceeds 2 million.
How is unemployment rising with so many people retiring?
Add in all those deportations that Trump is claiming and the labor force has shrunk by at least 4 million and we still have rising unemployment?
Lastly, we’re approaching death rates greater than birth rates the past decade which adds to the issue.
It’s not adding up.
Layoffs are widespread. Large tech companies are throwing in the towel on work visas. The scam is coming to a slow death. I suspect there will be an acceleration soon.
– How is unemployment rising with so many people retiring?
> I think a lot of people just don’t want to work, and have the ability to live ok without such, due to the extreme level of “Free Money” from the Taxpayers.
>> If you grab a 6 family, and pile 10 families in together. Kids share a couple rooms and single adults as well. It meets that requirement, and there is plenty of Beth rooms, and empty space to fill with tables and chairs. They do this in a friend of mine’s neighborhood (In Mass.), and have been for many years now… Nobody works, and the kids go to school with free Transportation, free Meals, free Supplies etc. The ones that cause problems they kick out themselves, it’s like a little commune, and they are all over his area living like this on the taxpayers… They will never work!!!
I agree that there are more “group living” households now.
Especially since the pandemic.
I do know from experience that employers do not always replace retirees.
For reasons you can imagine.
the boomers retiring are gonna need a ton of people employed to doctor them, nurse and maids for them and undertakers and grave dig for them. it’s gonna be full employment for the younger generations who need a paycheck.
Job openings peaked and unemployment bottomed 3 years ago. During the past 3 years, Layoffs were above the 25 year average. Biden started something so bad that no one will be able to “clean up the mess” before a recession begins. Not even the job openings at ICE with generous hiring bonuses will be enough.
ICE will compound the inflation problem and possibly even the job setup
This isnt about jobs. This is about remaking the country. The Democrats are still more unpopular than ICE because they want rampant immigration.
No…..we don’t.
stop pretending you’re not a figment of his fevered imagination!
inflation and layoffs are bitter pills individuals and the US as a country need to swallow for years of trying to spend beyond their means.
A thousand cuts are killing the system. It will take a decade to repair.
Hmmm. Exactly what mess did Biden start?
During Trump’s first term the US lost 2.7 million jobs.
During Biden’s term, the US gained 16 million jobs.
So far, in Trump’s second term first year, we have gained 935,000 jobs in 11 months. And the rate of gain is weakening. Not very inspiring is it?
634,000 Through September BLS
I have to say I’m surprised you’re using BLS Data for support…
All the people who went back to work after the ill-conceived covid shut down period did so on Biden’s watch, so Biden’s “historical” job numbers are less than meaningless.
Exactly. Trump was right when he said it was mostly bounce back jobs. Biden admin allowed rampant work visa fraud and overstays. The US citizen worker did worse under Biden than most here on work visas. The blowback has just started.
It’s very easy to blame immigrants. Well, since ICE is deporting everyone, there should be plenty of jobs out there.
Very true.
Yep. We agree.Trump created a huge mess in the job market with his Covid response. Biden’s numbers (16 million) look better because of Trump’s mess.
Now I will repeat my question. Exactly what mess did Biden start in the jobs market?
correct. agree, biden went hog wild starting government / private backed big jobs projects in many states……….trump is a disaster with his smoot hawley idiocracy. biden was brain dead, but his team helped put folks back to work after the wuhan flu.
Yes, this.
Masks
Lockdowns
killing small businesses
WFH
“If it saves even ONE life, it’s worth it. After all, we’re all in this together!”
Trump was not the governor of Michigan, Illinois or California at the time.
8.5 million/2.8m a year from 2017Q1 to 2019Q4 (FFR upper bound goes from .75 to a peak of 2.5)
9.4m/3.1m a tear from 2021Q4 to 2024Q4 (FFR .25 to peak of 5.5)
We are less than a million for 2025 so well below pace set in 2024. Read the comments from the Dallas Fed Business Surveys and you can see this is a policy-driven break from the trend: tariffs and related uncertainty caused by chaotic policy.
does Genocide Joe ring a bell ? that’s inflationary and outright evil. underwriting Zion. war is economics is war.
Nope. Try again.
if you don’t think the hundreds of billions of currency wasted backing Ziion and Ukraine under Genocide joe is not inflationary than i have no arguments left. also doing idiotic things like that, have unforeseen costs. just like 9.11.01 attack was a blowback to the amerikans keeping boots on the ground in saudi and other aggressive acts done in the muslim world that bin laden took offense. his list included backing Zion against the palestinians.
Lol! What happened to explaining the “mess in the jobs market” that Biden supposedly created? I didn’t ask anything about wars, or inflation or any other cult crap that you want to spout.
I repeat my question. What mess did Biden make of the jobs market? Want to answer that question?
My dog tried to genocide a squirrel in the backyard the other day. I had to call out the special ops (my wife) to get the rogue force (the dog) back under control. Am I misusing the word “genocide”?
yes. if your dog had killed all the squirrels in the county you reside, than i’d bring the pooch to the tribunal at the county fair for war crimes.