The bulls are cheering loudly today as the S&P Hits Record, Equals Longest Bull-Run
> The benchmark S&P 500 hit an all-time intraday high on Tuesday, the same day it equaled its longest-ever bull-market run, as U.S. stocks rose on encouraging earnings reports and hopes that the United States and China could resolve their tariff dispute.
> The index’s bull-market run is now 3,452 days old and on Wednesday will be the longest such streak in history, at least for some market watchers.
> The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 128.98 points, or 0.5 percent, to 25,887.67 and the Nasdaq Composite added 75.26 points, or 0.96 percent, to 7,896.27.
What’s Coming?
Record Breaking Bear Coming
Following the record breaking bull market we can expect a record breaking bear market.
GMO predicts returns of -2.3% to -4.9% per year for seven years.
John Hussman is even more bearish as noted most recently in Extrapolating Growth.
Hussman Comments
Hussman, the bears in general, and the gold bugs specifically have long been discredited in this bull market.
Mathematically, that’s the way it “must” be at major market peaks. The masses have to ride every wave in both directions. There is no escape for the bulls.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
If you took out the near zero rates and stimulus where would we be ? The market is a hype machine. Is everyone rich again yet?
We would be in a richer, more prosperous place. Where those who owned wealth, would have contributed something in exchange for it.
Way way way beyond artificial,hazard to guess central banks have printed easily 10-12 (at least) trillion and dumped into stocks over the last decade.Printed 10-12 trillion and bought bonds,10 trillion (all freshly printed)into commodities,trillions printed to bail out country after country.and the next big purcheses by central banks………wait for it!!Call it the EVERYTHING BAILOUT… stundent loans,auto’s, cc’s,printing money and (literally)buyin everything works ….until it doesn’t!
You’re right about that.
First, provide the privileged enough cheap debt to allow them to outbid those who have to work for a living for all real assets.
Then, print enough bailout money to effectively forgive their debt. While leaving their ownership of real assets intact.
That way, they will own everything free and clear. Without having to do anything complimecated and difficult, like doing a lick of productive work in return. Hard stuff is for the indentured class, after all.
The rest is all, 100%, obfuscation.
Is it really longest? This plot from Morningstar says there were four runs over 150 months. Obviously there are some measurement differences.
They have a video too,
This is interesting as to where it could lead.
“Germany Calls For Global Payment System Independent Of The US”
Meanwhile they still expect US to do heavy defence lifting.
What’s next? Who knows how long the PTB can keep the “funny money” directed towards inflating risk assets if they really put their minds to it. Mish, you have a Stockman-like tendency to underestimate the self-serving dishonesty of the new class of financial overlords.
Well .. their goes the retirement pension. What’s next?, well whatever works right? More QE. Once rates go up to 3% through 2020, then maybe we can do another unwind, maybe a bubble combo this time, health care, billion dollar corporations valued based on revenue adds, (tech sector again), and subscriptions, banks, err, probably so, RE again? (repeat), it’s hard to say. QE is an amazing thing, we are entering a new era where debt doesn’t really matter as much as being able to service debt. Then, of course rates need to go up, with some countries going to negative rates we know what the banks will want, an easier train to ride, and to restructure/flip debts into manageable tranches. World is weird, I saw a strange thing at a warehouse today. Epson printers from Japan, ink cartridges removed, printer junked, cartridges shipped to China.
But When?
Hussmans record is to loose money whichever way the markets go, he didnt make money in the downturns he “predicted”and he is not making money in the bull market.
He has invented the perfect hedge: Loose money whichever way the markets go.
The only thing that is sure is that markets go up and down, but in the long term more up than down.