Please consider Self-Driving Truck Tech Startup TuSimple Raises $95 Million in New Funding.
TuSimple is part of a stable of startups seeking to automate parts of long-haul and parcel transport with self-driving technology that uses artificial intelligence, laser sensors and cameras to navigate roads. TuSimple, Embark, Starsky Robotics and truck-platooning business Peloton Technology Inc. have drawn strong interest from venture capital funds and have struck a variety of operating agreements with truck manufacturers and operators to test their technology.
TuSimple’s technology is built around cameras that it claims provide better long-range predictive capabilities than lidar, the technology used in most self-driving passenger cars that offers a 3-D laser view of the environment.
The company’s cameras can see about 1,000 meters, or 3,280 feet ahead, said Chuck Price, TuSimple’s chief product officer. “From a half mile away we can spot emergency vehicles, cars broken down on the side of the road, people walking around,” Mr. Price said.
The company has two delivery routes in Arizona that deploy its technology on retrofitted trucks, with backup drivers and engineers on board, that haul loads for a dozen customers that it declined to name. The average run is about 200 miles and is automated from end to end, including surface-street navigation, Mr. Price said, although the trucks need a human driver to back up to loading docks.
TuSimple is working with truck manufacturers Navistar International Corp. and Paccar Inc. and components suppliers such as engine-maker Cummins Inc. The company will use the new investment to fund joint development with those companies to integrate autonomous software with powertrain, braking and steering systems as it pushes to achieve commercial scale.
“We are confident that we will have our first commercial driverless operation in late 2020 to 2021,” Mr. Price said.
Main Players
- TuSimple
- Embark
- Otto
- Starsky Robotics
- Peloton Technology Inc
- Waymo
- Uber
- Lyft
Of those companies, I am confident in Embark, TuSimple, Waymo, and Starsky Robotics.
Spotlight Starsky Robotics
In March of 2018, Wired reported Starsky Robotics Unleashes it Truly Driverless Truck in Florida.
Starsky doesn’t want humans in truck cabs at all. “We want to get people out of the cab because the work is unpleasant and dangerous,” Seltz-Axmacher says. Today’s trucking work, he argues, is bad, with uncomfortable work environments, long hours that leave little time for friends and family, and wages that aren’t high enough to compensate for those downsides. That’s why annual driver turnover in large American fleets hit 95 percent in 2017, according to the American Trucking Associations.
Like Uber and Embark, Starsky’s trucks will handle the highway driving all on their own. But when a human grabs the wheel to negotiate the complex surface streets, they won’t climb into the cab to do it. They’ll work in buildings that look like call centers, monitoring 10 to 30 vehicles per hour via video links and using a videogame-controller-like wheel to take control as needed. (Today, the company employs four truck drivers.)
Which model of robo-trucking the future embraces is probably up to regulators as much as the free market. (Starsky, for its part, just announced a $16.5 million Series A funding round, led by Shasta Ventures.) Today, eight states permit trucks to “platoon”—that is, use sensor integrations and wireless communications to synchronize accelerating and braking between two or more vehicles, so that only one driver (the one in front) has to pay attention at a time. Peloton Technologies, a California company that has embraced platooning, says it will begin to make commercial deliveries this year.
Which Model Will Win?
I expect numerous models will win starting with Embark.
On February 3, 2019, I commented Amazon Hauling Cargo on I-10 in Self-Driving Trucks Developed by Embark.
Embark, Electrolux, and Ryder have partnered in a driverless truck endeavor on a 650-mile I-10 route.
Embark CEO Alex Rodrigues: “Embark, Electrolux, and Ryder are working together running the longest automate freight rout in the world. 650 miles starting in Texas and ending in California. On the Frigidaire line, we drive over 100 million miles a year.”
“Embarks approach is unique. Our automation is designed specifically for the highway. We rely on Ryder’s trucks and drivers to ferry freight between the warehouse and the interchange.
Embark’s trucks pick up at the edge of the interstate and from there, the computer drives it 650 miles, all the way to California.”
That is the model I envisioned a decade ago. Platooning can easily be a part of that model. And 8 states already allow it. I expect the US Department of Transportation (DOT) will soon mandate allowance in all 52 states.
Starsky’s model goes even further. It completely solves the “last mile” problem.
Competition
This level of competition guarantees one or more self-driving models will be successful.
There is no other realistic way of looking at this.
The timeline primarily now depends on approval from the Department of Transportation (DOT). It will come withing a few years, most likely two.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
I guess there will be less bottles of urine laying around the roadside…
“Another article about something that’s a year away. Every year, they’re a year away.”
Kidhorn can neither read nor think.
I came up with a timeframe of 2022-2024 about 10 years ago.
The only thing I have done is move the date forward, not backward.
2021-2023 is more likely and I believe 2021-2022 will be it. Stop the stupidity
Another article about something that’s a year away. Every year, they’re a year away.
“always believed we’ll see self driving trucks before cars”
Cars could indeed be first – but not in a big way – Mass adoption by trucks before taxis get even 10% penetration
Reinstating the draft is a good idea as long as the President, Congress, and their families are obliged to immediately go to the most active war front.
” My more detailed plan involves robbing the truck as it is rolling down the highway using a stolen Ryder truck with the top of the cargo bay cut out, throwing roofing nails out across both lanes behind you to bring all pursuing traffic to a halt, and using specialized equipment built just for doing these kinds of robberies.”
What the hell does driverless have to do with any of that?
How about Nothing
They can do that today. How is the driver supposed to stop it?
Hey Mish, you definitely need to work on your criminal mindset. 🙂
Most thieves don’t want to risk a murder rap, or being killed by a driver for $10K worth of Nikes or big screen TV’s, so they’re not going to rob a truck that has as driver. The driver would stop the truck and blow your brains out with his 12 gauge.
Robbing driverless trucks will be more like robbing a freight train: no risk of human contact or a murder charge. On a train, the crew is a quarter mile ahead of you in the engine. There’s no risk of human contact for the thieves.
The whole discussion was about whether or not driverless trucks will be robbed or not. IMO they will be, just as sure as freight trains are today, and using some of the same methods and inside men who get you the freight manifests and all the inside info you need. I’ve loaded an unloaded enough semis in my day to know they are palletized and often enough, the load is 100% Nikes, or 100% high-end electronics. With no more than a Swiss army knife, any pallet can be broken down into the manageable size boxes the end user is going to require anyway. Thieves aren’t tossing entire pallets off trains and they won’t need to off driverless trucks either.
So, you fake an accident (and you know which truck to target, since you have an ‘insider’). The driver stops to help. You ambush the driver, tie him up and ransack the truck. Easy peasy…really no difference between a truck with a driver and without. Except the driverless truck is armed and kills you. Or the armed guards inside the truck kill you. Or the drone escorting the truck, kills you. Or the increased patrols, or private security guards, kill you. In Mexico there is a stretch of highway, where the cars queue up, and are then escorted by the army over that bad stretch. The same can be done with a convoy escorted by armed guards – through the bad stretches of highway. Although I like the drone idea – 10 drones come out of the night and strafe your Ryder truck to little pieces 🙂
The problem that I see is the drivers being laid off (and getting pissed off). And then sabotaging the driverless trucks at the truck stops. Not at first, but during the transition, when there are still lots of drivers (and truck stops). I also see the truck stops disappearing, since they are there mostly for the drivers. Fueling stations can be set up, with automatic fueling – no need for a big truck stop. A couple of armed guards and drones can then protect the trucks while they fuel up.
Hey Mish, I agree with you 100% on self-driving technology. To me it’s a no-brainer and just a question of when, not if.
I do disagree with the theft aspect. One of the main conclusions of the 911 Commission was that US Intelligence officials were just not “creative enough” to anticipate what terrorists with an IQ higher than celery might be able to accomplish. I think that is the same problem here with doubting that theft will occur, just lack of creativity.
I’m working on a detailed plan, (Jojo and I have a screenplay to write!), but for now, suffice it to say that no matter how quickly a human calls the police to report that their truck is being hijacked/robbed at GPS coordinates XYZ, there will be a time delay with police actually getting to the scene. Pulling a job at 2:00 AM when the fewest highway patrol officers are on duty and minimal traffic, at a location such as the 36-mile stretch between Desert Center and the truck stop near Mesa Verde, CA where there are no on/off ramps, is the time to do it. By creating a simple diversion, such as faking a car wreck by torching some junker cars on the side of the road, or smashing in a bank door in Mesa Verde to set off all the alarms, or multiple diversions, thieves can buy plenty of time to rob a self-driving semi. My more detailed plan involves robbing the truck as it is rolling down the highway using a stolen Ryder truck with the top of the cargo bay cut out, throwing roofing nails out across both lanes behind you to bring all pursuing traffic to a halt, and using specialized equipment built just for doing these kinds of robberies. Too many details to mention here but thieves will be constantly evolving new methods as quickly as programmers fix the old ones. That is guaranteed.
The movie The Bank Job was based on a true story, Everybody said it could never be done, yet it was. Robbing a self-driving truck is infinitely simpler than pulling off that bank job, IMO.
One question I have is, if you climb aboard the moving truck, and smash the driver’s window with a crowbar, I wonder if you can climb in and hijack the truck? If the computers shut it down, no problem, our team can unload what we need, in place in under ten minutes. If the truck is driveable, we can pull it over and unload it in place. It will take the cops longer than that to get there. Our stolen Ryder truck has white contact paper stuck to the sides,which we peel off afterwards to reveal that bright yellow Ryder logo. Any witnesses in the eastbound lane will be reporting a white truck, not a yellow Ryder truck. But at 2 AM, it will most likely be too dark for witnesses to see much.
I see recreational drone hunting as a bigger problem lol. Oh look, free pizza! A few problems with your idea. One is most of these are freightors and stuff is palletized so large and heavy. None of its clearly marked unless you know what youre loooking at. Youd have to have the manifest ahead of time. Wouldn’t want to hijack a trailer full of canned peas. If all these ideas of yours were easily implemented it would be happening more with regular trucks as you’d already be looking at 20 years my as well just bust a cap in the driver. I suppose it will be attempted at some point but considering tens of thousands on the road per day an isolated incident here and there will be a mere nuisance and a test /improvement period for security upgrades. Maybe team up with Boston Scientific and put an unfriendly K9 in the back.
“I’m curious how a driverless vehicle with cargo won’t be prevented from being run off the road and having its cargo stolen.”
I am curious how anyone can possibly think this is an issue. In fact, it is downright stupid to suggest it.
Cops will be alerted in seconds. There will be no time to break into the truck, unload the contents into another truck and get away. The whole thing will be recorded, including the guys unloading the truck as well as the vehicle they are unloading into.
“I think you will find that many incidents involving a truck are caused by the other driver.”
Define many as in percentage
Regardless, here is a set of true statements: Many truck accidents are caused by exhausted truck drivers. Many others are caused by truck drivers speeding to make delivery before they are forced to take a rest break. Many truck accidents are caused by driving carelessness or driving recklessness. Some but probably not many truck accidents are caused by drunk or high truck drivers.
Finally, the technology will be better at avoiding accidents even when the car is 100% at fault.
All guaranteed true.
Amazing how the free market pretty much figured this out. Yes, there was some R/D government money at first but a drop in the bucket compared to what the free market is doing.
No obama billion dollar subsidies picking winners and losers, no billions of tax subsides so rich Americans could buy one to virtual signal how they care for the environment, no “quotas” forcing Americans to buy their products and no massive kick-backs from these companies to “foundations” and political campaigns.
So far, the only thing the “free” (now, that’s a good one…) market has figured out, is how to get its hand on some more freshprint.
Market participants, even in unfree markets like our current ones, respond to incentives. They don’t “solve problems” for the sake of it. In free markets, the two align. But we haven’t had one of those, not even a fractional version of one, since the early 70s at the latest.
Instead, our current version of an unfree dystopia, incentivizes selling paper, promises and mindless hype. Then calling in the jackboots to ban, tax or otherwise harass someone, when underlying incompetence and proclivity to overpromise, is about to get called out.
Calls to “hold climate change deniers accountable” today. Even stronger calls to ban and restrict human drivers tomorrow, once it becomes obvious the robots cannot figure them out. Or that “they lower my robot investment’s ROI,” as the monkey army says, in fluent contamporary idiotese. After all, the dupes mostly owning the stock of robot patent troll outfits, tends to be better connected than someone just driving his own car to work…
Will be interesting to see the first time one of these crashes and loss of human life occurs. Tolerance for loss of human life is by computers is less tolerable than loss of human life by other humans imo. I’m sure the kinks will be worked out and computers will make flawless decisions like humans though.
Good point.
Didn’t seem to stop cars from proliferating (and the deaths reaching 40000 plus a year).
Exactly, so glad I didn’t spend any of my gold buying stock in Amazon or netflix.
Starskys model will win. A vehicle will never be 100% self driving and the cheapest way to allow a human to take over is the “call center” approach, not the “backup driver in the cab” approach.
Clintonstain “I’m trying to gauge your horseshit-to-reality ratio”
Mish: Dear Clintonstain, I am not invested in any of those companies.
In case you haven’t noticed, good companies don’t always make good investments, especially in bubbles.
So when it comes to these imminent, “world changing” technologies, your horseshit ratio line is going parabolic?
Very good point Mish.
Mish, how much are you personally invested in those eight companies?
Of that amount, how much is invested in those focused exclusively on automated semi driving like TuSimple?
I’m trying to gauge your horseshit-to-reality ratio.
Good question,@Clintonstain
But, how does one go about betting on these outfits? Uber/Lyft maybe, though they are probably not dependent on auto-driving. Waymo is lost in the Google soup, isn’t it? The others are still private, aren’t they?
On the flipside, being someone that occasional ships item via freight, I am sick of the continually rising prices. It’s to the point where things I use to ship can end up in the junkyard if there are no local buyers its just not worth it. One of the problems is that people just complain about all the lost driving jobs. Not only will that be an issue, where are all these people going to go? That’s right. Spill over everywhere. No more mouthing off to the mcdonalds drive thru guy that’s now 300lbs and 6′ tall. Of course, that job is set to end as well. I think guaranteed basic income is a legitimate discussion no matter the morals or problems with it. I mean if you want the country to turn into Haiti with millions with nothing to lose then you’re all set. Problem this time around I think our tech is way too fast than in decades past for any sort of smooth transition. I mean to put that many out of work and then expect to roll along business as usual is a bit stupid. If not a lot stupid.
That fear has been present throughout history whenever technology replaces humans. The worst case scenario has not been realize to date and I doubt it will again. This is creative destruction and is just the evolution of free markets. New higher skilled higher paying jobs should emerge as the landscape changes from low skilled labor to higher skilled labor. The problem is we currently have a labor shortage especially in high skilled trades. I don’t see the loss of these drivers being an economic catastrophe. The real problem lies in the fact we have a new generation of entitled snowflakes that refuse to do any manual labor , skilled or not. They want 100k college degrees in the fine art or gender inequality and bitch when they can’t pay off their debts with their Starbucks job. Then they will all vote for AOC. We should reinstate the draft so these people will learn discipline and the meaning of work.
Reinstating the draft is a good idea as long as the draftees have a peace core option
Doing it out of concern that it’s a crappy job is all time BS. Anything that involves $ is a target. If its a crappy job and not easily automated you can keep your crappy job.
Agreed. Does that include A.I. programs that replace bloggers?