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Shelter Inflation: Is there a Shortage of Houses?

Is there a shortage of houses or simply a shortage of houses that people can afford?

Allegedly there was a shortage of housing in 2007. Then suddenly there was a surplus. 

When prices are surging and speculation is high it appears like a shortage is on the way.

Then at the peak of every market it always seems like there is a major shortage. 

I am not suggesting we are at the peak. 

But alleged shortages are a sign of speculation coupled with free money from Congress and easy money from the Fed.

Mish

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18 Comments
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ajc1970
ajc1970
5 years ago
“This time everything is different.”

https://twitter.com/WSJ/status/1372386052346941441?s=20

Webej
Webej
5 years ago
According to YUN there is always an inventory problem.
Agree with Mish, but there’s more going on.
People have never paid such a large proportion of their income for housing.
That money is going somewhere, and there has to be a reason everyone is paying so much more for shelter.
RonJ
RonJ
5 years ago
There is a shortage of houses for the homeless in L.A. City Councilman Mike Bonin is proposing to create homeless camps at some local beaches and parks, including a section of parking lot at Will Rogers State Beach. LAX airport property is apparently another possible site.
Overnight parking and camping would be allowed and possibly the installation of tiny homes, depending on the location. Local residents are not too happy with the idea, with safety issues and concerns about public beach access.
njbr
njbr
5 years ago
New funding source for taxing authorites.
Put some effort into verification of homestead claims.
njbr
njbr
5 years ago
A bunch of lazy flippers…
They figure there is money to be made by buy and hold for a year or two?  Maybe not very much fix-up at all.  Don’t bother with those troublesome renters…
When and if the market rolls over, look for the market to be flooded with new listings, lazy flipppers running for the door.
Casual_Observer2020
Casual_Observer2020
5 years ago
Reply to  njbr
The problem is housing is supported by the banking industry which is supported by the Fed. All the bondholders keep getting bailed out repeatedly and thus the speculators never lose their shirt. Until we get another recession like 2007-2009, the excesses will not ever be cleared out. We are just another Japan when it comes to this stuff. The result will be 1% of less growth for a decade or more. 
FromBrussels
FromBrussels
5 years ago
….of course there s a housing shortage….there also is a obvious  shortage of Bitcoin, Dogecoin, Ethereum …..not to mention EVs , gold, silver, lithium etc., even agricultural products are lacking, and then of course  ‘ART’, a few paint strikes being worth millions,….Thank gowd that, at least there seem to be enough C19 ‘vaccines’ ! 
PostCambrian
PostCambrian
5 years ago
Cheap money (low interest rates) can cause excess demand.  Much of the increased demand is by those who already have a home or by entities (investors) that don’t need a home.  Perhaps the US could put a tax on home purchases by those who already own a home and by entities.  Or perhaps the US shouldn’t subsidize interest rates in general and housing loans in particular.
QTPie
QTPie
5 years ago
If you look at actual real estate listings and compare them to years past there certainly does appear to be a shortage of housing units for sale. How quickly can this shortage be alleviated if market conditions change is difficult to tell. A lot of it depends on where mortgage interest rates go. It’s insane that the Fed is still buying tens of billions of $ of MBSs per month in a super-hot real estate market like this. The real estate market requires no support at this point whatsoever. There’s no justification for what they are doing.
Cansip
Cansip
5 years ago

With historically low  treasury interest rates, mortgage rates are also historically low  and this fuels the housing  speculation. Wait for the stock market bust and housing prices will collapse simultaneouslty with the market. 

Jojo
Jojo
5 years ago
Reply to  Cansip
And just like 2009/2010, all the sidelined cash will appear to scoop up the auction buys.
Jojo
Jojo
5 years ago
There is too much money available as people/companies fearful of the stock market heights cash out, foreign money coming in from overseas, pension funds and such looking for someplace to put their cash that generates more than 1% interest, money laundering, etc.
AND 
How many vacant houses are there really in the Bay Area?
Estimates vary widely but census data suggests there are thousands
January 6, 2020
There’s a home on South Jackson Avenue in San Jose’s Mayfair neighborhood that has it all: excellent location within walking distance of a school, parks and shops; a nearly acre-sized backyard; and — a rarity in California — a basement.
But for at least a decade it has sat unoccupied — one of an estimated 46,000 such homes in the five-county Bay Area. It’s a surprising number in a region beset by a crippling housing shortage and a ballooning number of homeless residents, where vacant housing has become the latest flashpoint in an ongoing crisis.
….
AND
Unmasking the secret landlords buying up America
By Aaron Glantz / December 17, 2019
America’s cities are being bought up, bit by bit, by anonymous shell companies using piles of cash. Modest single-family homes, owned for generations by families, now are held by corporate vehicles with names that appear to be little more than jumbles of letters and punctuation – such as SC-TUSCA LLC, CNS1975 LLC – registered to law offices and post office boxes miles away. New glittering towers filled with owned but empty condos look down over our cities, as residents below struggle to find any available housing.
All-cash transactions have come to account for a quarter of all residential real estate purchases, “totaling hundreds of billions of dollars nationwide,” the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network – the financial crimes unit of the federal Treasury Department, also known as FinCEN – noted in a 2017 news release. Thanks to the Bank Secrecy Act, a 1970 anti-money-laundering law, the agency is able to learn who owns many of these properties. In high-cost cities such as New York, San Francisco, Los Angeles and Miami, it’s flagged over 30% of cash purchases as suspicious transactions. But FinCEN also cites this bill to hide this information from the public, leaving the American people increasingly in the dark about who owns their cities.
….
Casual_Observer
Casual_Observer
5 years ago
Reply to  Jojo
It is most Chinese money. This has been the issue in Vancouver for almost a decade. 
Karlmarx
Karlmarx
5 years ago
Reply to  Jojo
I guess this is why Mayor DeBlasio thinks it is best for him to make the decisions about where people should live rather than markets.  Was in Havana before the world shut down and everyone gets a shipping container, or an apartment the size of a shipping container.  That’s all a family needs.  Plenty of houses out there.  I could put probably 3 full families in mine.
Greenmountain
Greenmountain
5 years ago
Reply to  Jojo
Certainly in the Northeast we are seeing increased cash buys, lots of second home purchases.  May be great for the buyers but not communities.  We need people to live in our communities, care and be part of the daily life.  Investment buying is not good long term for any community.
Casual_Observer
Casual_Observer
5 years ago
This is the mother of all bubbles — basically every asset class is in a bubble. 
Mr. Purple
Mr. Purple
5 years ago
House value go brrrrr
Zardoz
Zardoz
5 years ago
Been staying in somebody’s lake house since November… dozens of big houses around me, all empty until just a couple weeks ago.
Not too efficient… but it’s been peaceful.
Buyers do seem to have an awful lot of money to get into bidding wars with, lately…

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