It’s another grim month according to ADP.
Please consider the grim ADP® National Employment Report for November
Private employers shed 32,000 jobs in November
Job creation has been flat during the second half of 2025 and pay growth has been on a downward trend. November hiring was particularly weak in manufacturing, professional and business services, information, and construction.
Manufacturing shed another 18,000 jobs. Professional and business service shed 26,000.
Education and health services gained 33,000.
Changes by Employer Size
- 1-19 Employees: -46,000
- 20-49 Employees: -74,000
- 50-249 Employees: +31,000
- 250-499 Employees: +20,000
- 500+ Employees: +39,000
Change in Small, Medium, Large Employment Year-Over-Year
Change in Small, Medium, Large Employment Details
- Small: -197,000
- Medium: +275,000
- Large: +1,012,000
No Surprise
None of this is a surprise. I have been discussing, and predicting this all year.
The tariff impact on small businesses is starting to take a big toll on small businesses.
Unlike large employers, small businesses have fewer means of tariff avoidance and less ability to hold inventory or eat the tariffs.
It’s turning up in other reports.
Value City Furniture Goes Bankrupt, Cites Tariffs, 120 Stores Will Close
On December 1, I commented Value City Furniture Goes Bankrupt, Cites Tariffs, 120 Stores Will Close
American Signature, Inc., parent of VCF, filed for Bankruptcy. Fallout in 17 states.
Readers commented that’s only 1,300 employees. Yep, “only” 1,300 “direct” jobs. It’s always “only” when it pertains to someone else.
But those 1,300 are very valuable to small communities. And those 1,300 will be eating out less and buying less items from other retailers.
Warn Notices
Value City is just one case. Warn notices are soaring. Newsweek reported Mass Layoff Warnings Climb to Highest Level in Nearly a Decade
According to a recent analysis by Goldman Sachs, Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification (WARN) alerts, which employers must issue before conducting mass layoffs, have ticked up in recent weeks. Outside of the initial spike which occurred during the pandemic, the bank said these are now at their highest level since 2016.
In addition to WARN alerts, Goldman’s economists analyzed earnings calls from Russell 3000 firms, finding that “the share of companies mentioning layoffs has increased recently.” In conversations about staffing levels, artificial intelligence has also emerged as a major theme, with “about half of layoff-focused discussions in the last two reporting quarters in the tech sector” including references to the technology.
If you look at the warn notices you will see most of them are “only” 50 jobs here or 10 jobs there. But it adds up to huge numbers.
Impending Layoffs
On November 17, Bloomberg commented Notices of Impending Layoffs by US Companies Surged in October
Some 39,006 Americans were given advance notice as required under the Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification Act last month, the preliminary Cleveland Fed measure showed. In monthly data from 2006, that number has only ever been higher in 2008, 2009, 2020 and May 2025.
Add Value City Furniture to the list. It’s “only” 1,300 jobs.
Bloomberg commented “Many optimists have pointed to weekly filings for unemployment insurance, which remain muted.“
Regarding unemployment claims, I am a realist, not an optimist.
Grim Unemployment Picture Is the Combined Worst Since October 2021
On November 26, I noted Grim Unemployment Picture Is the Combined Worst Since October 2021
The continued claims number, rising very slowly, does not tell the full story. Once someone loses a job it is difficult to find another. And as soon as someone exhausts their benefits they are no longer counted.
Initial claims is not a good measure either. The self-employed have no benefits and cannot file. Tariffs hit small businesses and the self-employed disproportionately.
Four Factors Making Things Worse
- The self-employed have no benefits and cannot file an unemployment claim.
- Illegal immigrants are hesitant to file a claim, even those who have been working here for years.
- Illegal immigrants are highly unlikely to respond to BLS phone calls regarding unemployment. This means the unemployment level itself is undercounted.
- Twelve states have a maximum of 21 weeks of benefits. Seven states including Florida offer 16 weeks of benefits or less. Once someone maxes out benefits, they drop off continued claims counts.
The unemployment level is 7,603,000. The 15+ weeks or longer unemployment number is 3,105,000.
Of those unemployed, over 40.8 percent, and rising fast, have been unemployed for at least 15 weeks.
Labor Market Woes
November 7, 2025: Revelio’s Realistic Assessment of the US Labor Market and Jobs – Sinking Fast
Kudos to Revelio for providing an excellent set of jobs-related data.
November 22, 2025: BLS Nonfarm Jobs Revisions Are Negative 26 Out of Last 32 Months
The latest revision sets jobs at -4,000 in August from initial report of +22,000.
You can make excuses or pretend this economic weakness is not tariff related. If you want to worship tariffs, I cannot stop you.
However, increasingly obvious to anyone who can think clearly that tariffs have damaged this economy.
Don’t tell me things will get better if we wait it out, because they won’t. It is 100% certain that tariffs are a net destroyer of jobs. Only those in protected industries benefit.
Steel and aluminum tariffs are the best example. For every steel or aluminum job saved by tariffs (if any) there are tens-of-thousand of consumers and intermediates (think GM) all paying a higher price.
ISM Manufacturing Contracts for the 35th Time in 37 Months
On December 1, 2025 I noted ISM Manufacturing Contracts for the 35th Time in 37 Months
67 percent of panelists are managing head counts, not hiring. Price pressures rising.
Here’s my favorite ISM respondent comment.
“We are starting to institute more permanent changes due to the tariff environment. This includes reduction of staff, new guidance to shareholders, and development of additional offshore manufacturing that would have otherwise been for U.S. export.” (Transportation Equipment)
Hoot of the Day: In response to tariffs (or tariff retaliation) that company is developing more offshore manufacturing and firing US staff, not bringing more manufacturing back to the US.
Don’t worry it’s “only” one comment.
Those tolls are adding up, and it starts with small businesses. You see it WARN notices, in ADP small business reports, in adjusted unemployment claims data, and in the latest ISM report.
You have to be blind to not see it.
If you’re interested here is a good article on the impact on small businesses…. The article interviewed several small businesses who had a lot of compassion towards their employees. Unfortunately there are some small businesses out there who don’t show such compassion. They just wack them.
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/consumer/small-business-owners-layoffs-personal-rcna247229
Mish – please advise, what is the error in the ADP report? I believe for NFP it is order +/- 135K to be statistically significant.
And these numbers won’t count all the college graduates who are having trouble finding jobs…
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/03/job-market-new-grads-unemployment.html
I anticipate jobs numbers for October whenever they come out, will be dismal as all the government workers that took the buyout will not be in the count plus, I really do not see any real catalyst for large employment growth except for potentially in segments of the technology segment. Possibly healthcare also, people will be getting sick after swallowing hook line and sinker all the bovine feces they have been spoon fed.
Yawn… Wake me up when wage growth falls below 3%; Otherwise, there is a lack of labor competition, meaning, bottom line, the labor market is strong.
To clarify I am not trolling, about 4.1 million people retired in the last year. That’s roughly 340,000/month. So a loss of 32,000 jobs/month translates to a growth of 308,000/month. Wage growth is currently over 4.5% nominal, which is on the high side.
If wage growth were to fall below 3%, price inflation would be (essentially) stopped dead in its tracks. The current government and FOMC are not focused on stabilizing prices, and the actions of these institutions make that clear, despite whatever words they may say.
I chatted with my aluminum aircraft machining company wife this evening. She reported an interesting item in that Airbus has them bidding on parts now that they opened their facility in Canada.
The move was expensive and disruptive over the last four months as most of the machinists and CAD operators had families. They tried to move at the end of semesters for their kids. Three families have not sold their primary residence here and that is holding up closing on the sale of their building and moving the last equipment. It is keeping some production here is the US making things more complex for everyone.
All in, 17 employees earning over $100k have now opted to go to the Canadian operation! Word travelled through the team that the cost of living was substantially lower in Canada and wage/benefit package afforded a higher standard of living. Plus employees would learn on the newest machine tools and upgrade their skill sets would be more valuable.
She is absolutely thrilled with the economics of low cost aluminum billets, lower energy & shipping costs and no damn tariffs or import/export hassles to deal with.
Of course this is before whatever process is involved when they get an Airbus order.
The loss to our community will be at least $50 million dollars over the next ten years.
Exit strategies are real and like elections, they have consequences.
Unfortunately, effects of politicians in current office often take years to be realized and by then, serious damage is done to local and national economics.
This is why politicians should be held responsible for the decisions they make for say 10 years after they leave office. If they are proven to have been full of crap, then they have to give up all their assets.
“Exit strategies are real….”
And who here has been telling you about them over the past few years? 🙂
Smart money moves first, gets the pick of the litter then leaves the leftovers for dumb money. There’s a reason 80% of the wealth is controlled by 20% of the population. You’re watching it in real-time now.
In October 2025, NY state raised the maximum unemployment benefits 73%, increasing it from $504 per week to $869 per week. To give some perspective, in 2003 the maximum benefit was $450.
In 20 years the benefit went up a little more than 10%. That’s hardly keeping up with inflation. To make up for the failure to track inflation, NY state imposes a huge increase that will force small businesses to close, cutting a source of UI funding AND drawing down on the fund.
That’s a poor decision but if I remember correctly, there are states with even higher payouts, like Washington and of course, Minnesota.
From my past experience when I was in the work world, high and extended unemployment are demotivators. Unemployment should not be too high and it should not last more than 26 weeks and that might even be too long.
So… if the benefit had kept up with inflation over the past 20 years would those businesses close? Or were they just getting a free ride, so to speak, and able to book more profit during that period?
Uh Oh, Commerce Swampcreature I mean Secretary Lutnick has this as a rebuttal Mish…. X-D
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/03/lutnick-jobs-tariffs-shutdown-immigration-adp.html
Yes, I have seen what Trump’s parrot says
Touché and the only hysterical part is they swallow they’re own BS!
Ludnick and Bessant are an embarrassment. I can’t see them returning to the business world after this gig ends. Who would have them?
Check real wages. Declining for some time now.
All power to make improvement lies with the bond vigilantes. We are getting closer and closer to a Treasury auction failure.
There are a number of yield curve theories (like most economic things all have varying merit and some points). In my book if Hassert get’s Powell’s job the long end of the curve will be much higher than otherwise. Maybe a early ’80’s redux? The bond market will not want to hold duration for fear Hassert will be inflationary. Yes, he/Trump could kill things so bad long bonds look attractive Vs near zero short rates; or buyers could not want to take that chance. [Check yield curve theories and pick a premise. I laid out the coming market big battle IMHO.]
WAY back during the OPEC Embargo oil price spike and recessionary fallout a term, or addage was coined. It is: “If your neighhbor is laid off it’s a recession; if you’re laid off it’s a depression”. And the phrase/analogy stuck around.
Ahhh, my first panic. I thought by the time I got my license there would be no gas, like in Americathon.
Is that the same Zerohedge that bragged an uptick of 2 million native born people in the labor force?
Are they just flying out of wombs fully grown?
Complete with vacuous looks on their faces, Brute Squad/ICE job skills and MAGA hats.
It’s really from the Epoch Times as you should have noticed from the 3rd line of the post:
“Authored by Mary Prenon via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),”
Perhaps I should have bolded it to make it easier for you to recognize and understand?
JoJo is correct with the posting of the article. You may not believe the source (Epoch Times via ZeroHedge), but just google ‘college graduates unemployment’ and a plethora of articles will pop up from Forbes, NY Fed, St. Louis Fed, etc.
https://www.highereddive.com/news/are-young-college-graduates-losing-an-edge-in-the-job-market/806426/
Lutnick Gives Dumbest Excuses Ever For Job Losses In ADP Report
“Next year, the numbers are going to be fantastic,” the billionaire said.
“Next year, the numbers are going to be fantastic,” the billionaire said.
I ask “when next year Jan 2 or Dec 31??”
It’s always the last day of the last month by tradition.
I was tired of working anyway….
Me too… I keep hoping the axe will fall, but it hasn’t.
I have other projects I want to work on, an The Man is making me too tired to get much done on them.
No one seems to mention the fact that Trump started tariffs during his first term in 2017! Not only that but Biden kept many and even increased some so we now have 9 years of tariffs so where is the golden age?
Where is all the manufacturing coming back? Remember, Trump’s tariffs hit China from 2016 so when are all those jobs coming back MAGA?
What has been happening since those tariffs? Well inflation has been going up, yeah it slows down now and then but it keeps going up higher and higher. Jobs have been lost or are MAGA under the delusion that jobs are increasing?
The Fed is poised to lower rates, is that going to bring back jobs? Manufacturing? Keep inflation low?
Is anyone tired of the carnival barker and his circus clowns or do you need to feel more pain and less gain?
Because Mish was right all along on this issue, I hereby award a 3 star Mishelin award for this post.
Correct. And don’t expect the next administration, whoever they are, to get rid of most tariffs, as they like those taxes being paid by us businesses and consumers.
8 years of tariffs and no discernable positive results. Of course, there’s always next year! Lol!
So what is the solution? It is impossible to convince Trump to admit that his closely held, cherished belief in tariffs is foolish.
I guess we should all be sending letters to SCOTUS demanding that they rule Trump’s arbitrary tariffs illegal.
Or otherwise, wait for the AI takeover.
“So what is the solution?”
It starts with exit and ends with strategy. All other solutions lead to nowhere.
At the rate he’s going, he may have forgotten about them completely by now. I wonder if they check…
One solution is to stop wasting time on politics and focus your attention on things that will improve your health and wealth, so you become immune to whatever is happening economically.
If the GDP data are correct, labor productivity growth must be quite robust (about 2 percent). The fact that people express strong unhappiness about this relatively fast labor productivity growth (as per consumer confidence) can only mean (1) the gains accrue mainly to capital (as per stock market valuations) and that (2) the gains are driven by capital deepening & AI adoption, leaving labor in the dust. Is this what MAGA economics is all about?
Well, that, but it’s mostly about cruelty to anyone that fails the paper bag test.
About half of the US small businesses have only 1-4 employees. This represents several million people. In 2023 small businesses accounted for 97% of importers. How many of these 1-4 people businesses have gone south with the tariffs with the entrepreneurs barely hanging on and hoping for a seasonal turnaround before seeking unemployment?
I doubt most entrepreneurs will qualify for unemployment. But we’ll start to see the true condition of the economy in February, after Christmas season reveals the winners and losers of the retail sector.
Good point.
Every government intervention seems inevitably to render the economy more corporatist.
aka fascist, cf “Facism and Monopoly” by Daniel Crane. Spoiler: He’s far from the first person to make that connection.
“Fascism should more properly be called corporatism because it is the merger of state and corporate power.” — Benito Mussolini
The TACO economy is alive and well, as expected.
As you say, these numbers will be irrelevant to the believers that are not affected by them. I do wonder how many people that are directly impacted voted for the tariff madness though.
Trump keeps telling us that he is going to replace $2.3 trillion in income tax revenue with about $200 billion in new import taxes, aka tariffs. Meanwhile small business owners are being strangled with these new import taxes. I wonder if MAGAs can put 2+2 together.
This will clearly reduce the national debt but 15000%!
Now, now you don’t have to exaggerate. Taco is only reducing the deficit by 1500% lol.
But I just LOVE that guy so much, and he will do anything in his power to make me happy. Surely another 0 in sharpie isn’t too much to ask.
22
“I wonder if MAGAs can put 2+2 together.”
If Trump says 2+2 = 7 then MAGA nitwits will believe and repeat it even though they know it’s wrong. How many so called “Christians” keep posting comments here advocating murder and bombings even though that’s the #1 sin on the list?
You can’t reason with this level of stupidity and evil, Mish is correct in banning them. Sad that he has to do it so often.
I like having piggies here. I can get at them. Can’t say much that isn’t praises to PedoPig in their safe spaces, without getting banned.
I’ve adopted their “Fuck your feelings” mantra, but most of them flee. It’s the only thing we have in common, and I was hoping we could build on that.
Actually the number 1 sin is worshiping false idols/gods…
Every time Mish says TWS, I cringe a little. Do these so called christians, understand?
They’re prancing around with the MAGA mark on their foreheads, repudiating Jesus with their behavior, and obsessed with a guy that ticks quite a few of the antichrist boxes.
Only thing I can figure is none of them have read the bible, or forgot what they read. Surely they didn’t join Satan’s army by choice.
The data points are all there, but the typical trump supporter will not be swayed… “fake news, those are necessary losses that come with the necessary tariffs, wait six months or a year and the country will be humming”. That’s what they are already saying, and good luck convincing them otherwise. Facts and data are not part of trump world.
Piggies to the slaughter.