ADP reported a net loss of 33,000 jobs in June. Here are the winners and losers.
Goods Total +32,000
- Natural Resources and Mining: 8,000
- Construction: 9,000
- Manufacturing: 15,000
Services Total -66,000
- Education and Health Services: -52,000
- Financial Activities: -14,000
- Information: 5,000
- Leisure and Hospitality: 32,000
- Professional and Business Services: -56,000
- Trade, Transportation, and Utilities: 14,000
- Other Services: 5,000
Small Businesses Getting Clobbered
Change by Small, Medium, Large
- Small: -47,000
- Medium: -15,000
- Large: +30,000
Earlier today I reported ADP Reports 33,000 Job Losses in June with Negative Revisions in May
Small and medium-sized businesses shed jobs in June.
Click on the above link for more details.
No Driver for Job Growth
This economy is more than a bit screwed up. Tariffs and deportations rate to do more damage to small businesses.
There is no driver for job growth in the US. Expect to see negative numbers from the BLS this year.
Extending the observation window since the start of Trump’s admin (i.e., since March which covers the end of the first full month of the Trump admin), we find an even more impressive result: the number of native born workers has surged by 1.5 million while foreign-born (primarily illegals) have tumbled by 1 million.
So while one can certainly find warts in the broader jobs report – and with the economy 5 years into its post-covid expansion there better be weaknesses – the one thing that matters more than anything to most Americans, not having to compete with illegal aliens for jobs which not only pushes demand higher but also wages, is one where Trump can certainly say mission accomplished, for now.
Good information. Did you get the graph from ADP, or did you create the graph from just the numbers?
I’m thinking that Biden rigged the BLS numbers with a fudge factor to make them look better, and Trump saw the memo and said, “hey, that’s a great idea, let’s keep it!”
Or the BLS employees that actually accumulate the numbers through surveys and statistical methodology are the same and are doing the same job they have for years. And the statistics just have not changed much yet since January.
And it’s not political fudging; it’s just statistics. How you view those numbers through your political POV is up to you (or not)
In an odd twist i think what Trump is pushing is getting people back to work and off the public dole. It will take time but feels like it will work. The tax cut for the top 20% will spur job growth.
You think?
Sure… for people that make yachts, mansions and other useless crap that does nothing but signal wealth.
You don’t need infrastructure if you have a yacht, after all.
I believe the demand for foreign labor exists because Americans did not want to do those jobs. Much easier to just vote in the right people who’d coddle them.
Americans don’t want to do those jobs for slave wages, you mean. Big difference. Make the pay high enough and I’ll consider a career change.
And yes, prices for everything will have to increase dramatically. The free ride is over.
Paying them more just creates inflation that will keep them on the bottom. Your standard of living will always be dictated by your skill level no matter what the numbers are.
I stayed at a Hilton hotel in Wilmington, NC recently. White women were the room cleaners, with a few black women. No Hispanics. Everyone spoke English. It can be done.
Of course, necessity drives innovation. Those white women need jobs and hotel work is their best option. Roughly, 40% of the age eligible workforce isn’t working, cut their benefits and end the free rides and watch white people appear for any job!
Or, pay citizens more than illegals.
You think those “white women” are Americans?
Probably Ukrainians or other eastern European nations.
Yes. I spoke to a few, including one working in the kitchen. Defintely Americans, y’all. Same with the front desk. White women, a few white men, and a few blacks. No Hispanics.
The Jobs Market Is Starting to Fall Apart: Even if Thursday’s jobs report comes in strong, a look behind the headline number tells a different story. This Job Market is Weaker Than It Looks – WSJ (archive.ph)
The little guy getting screwed by Trumps policies? Gosh what a surprise…
For decades, Trump has refused to pay his subcontractors for work and materials.
When jobs are completed, he simply refuses to pay and makes the claim that “Working for Trump is a valuable marketing tool” and the victimized contractors can sue him if they want their money.
No surprise to me that small business are suffering under trump. Under the tyrannical rule of this bully, ordinary hard-working Americans are screwed.
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He should pay them in Trump and Melania coins 🙂
I’ve heard this story from multiple sources. Maybe it’s true?
Well. Do they sue?
Mister Mish, just heard you on George Noory’s Coast To Coast AM. Thanks for that great guest interview.
School let out and summer vacation started, so those categories make sense.
Professional and business services is interesting though. AI effects or general malaise?
Yes, as computer science grads are having a very hard time in the job market. Also federal guvmint cut backs impact the Beltway Bandits and government contractors. Maybe also states and municipalities cutting back on contracts for professional services like California and Los Angeles.
Plumbers, construction workers, oligarchs and non-humans will do great. That is, until the first two categories are replaced (see: Amazon warehouses as majority robot now).