Quick update 3.6% nowcast yesterday, 3.0% today. We find out tomorrow.
The GDPNow headline forecast was 3.6 percent yesterday.
The final estimate is now 3.6 percent.
GDPNow Percentage Point Contribution Estimates – Final
- PCE Goods: 0.17
- PCE Services: 1.51
- PCE Nonresidential Equipment: 0.25
- Intellectual Property: 0.31
- Nonresidential Structures: -0.05
- Residential Investment: 0.00
- Federal Government: 0.07
- State and Local Government: 0.17
- Imports: -0.04
- Exports: 0.07
- CIPI: 0.53
GDPNow Percentage Point Contribution Yesterday
- PCE Goods: 0.17
- PCE Services: 1.47
- PCE Nonresidential Equipment: 0.13
- Intellectual Property: 0.31
- Nonresidential Structures: -0.05
- Residential Investment: 0.00
- Federal Government: 0.07
- State and Local Government: 0.17
- Imports: 0.52
- Exports: 0.10
- CIPI: 0.69
2025 Q4 Nowcast Final
- GDP: 3.0 percent (top line estimate)
- Real Final Sales: 2.5 percent (GDP Minus CIPI)
- Real Final Domestic Sales: 2.4 percent
- Real Final Private Domestic Sales: 2.6 percent
2025 Q4 Nowcast Yesterday
- GDP: 3.6 percent (top line estimate)
- Real Final Sales: 2.9 percent (GDP Minus CIPI)
- Real Final Domestic Sales: 2.2 percent
- Real Final Private Domestic Sales: 2.4 percent
The BEA reports GDP tomorrow.
We can compare to the GDPNow final forecast.
For discussion of the trade deficit please see Trade Deficit Surges in December, Full Year Deficit Hits a New Record
TARIFFS DECLARED ILLEGAL BY SCOTUS. TRUMP IS FOR SURE BOMBING PERSIA NOW
Supreme court rules against Trump’s sweeping global tariffs
The supreme court has issued a sharp rebuke and ruled against the legality of the president’s sweeping global tariffs.
In a 6-3 decision, the court holds that International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) – a 1977 statute which grants the president authority to regulate or prohibit certain international transactions during a national emergency – does not authorize the president to impose the tariffs.
Justices Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, and Brett Kavanaugh dissented.
-The Guardian
It’s Christmas.
…. and the weather.
SCOTUS rules AGAINST Trump’s tariffs.
LOL!
Tantrum time at the Whitehouse!
yeah .brent=oil trades as if there will be war sooner
alx
whoever wants clear picture of real economy
just plot 2 single graphs:
=1 NEW HOUSES sold per capita (or 1000 people), size no matter. in bad times people still buy smaller, and if times are good, people buy bigger!
so size is irrelevant.
=2 new cars sold per 1000 population! again in bad times people still buy smaller/cheaper cars.
see those charts last 10 20 30 years time slot
it is multi decades bottom. USA consumer is fuck11ed
alx
THE boomers croaking off. they only know how to shop. nihilist cunts. the 20 and 30 somethings already know the empire is cooked, and don’t have the extra cabbage to buy stupid shit. houses are an anchor when young. not a good move to own. happened to me in my twenties. i’m a 65 year old boomer who has owned dozens of investment properties over the decades. i let them all go to market 2 years ago, except for two properties.
most clear sign IS 10 year %RATES!
despite new fed chair , and obv trump is in favor of lower rates
10y is not moving down..
=====
CLEAR BIG BOYS KNOWS ENDGAME IS HERE, no way USA congress/trump would even try to fix budget deficit.
and OF COURSE GOLD IS $5000, WE HAVE BOTTOM!!
BUY ALL gold UNDER 5000$,
alx
The Spanish Empire disintegrated due to debt. During the 16th century their navy was more powerful than the Brits and French combined. Eventually the overextension caught up with them
i love how in spain, today they celebrate 1898 as the END OF THEIR EMPIRE. just wonderful. when i visit barcelona i stay at the hotel 1898 on the rambla. us amerikans are still in love with our empire. in fact we are as dumb as the romans were. WE vote for the empire. The UNIPARTY blues and reds alike. unlike the british french or spanish empires……..who had kings and queens. Cheers to King Donaldo, our pederast and diddling King
at some point Spain just stopped do anything!
what for? there were still ships filled w/ gold/silver went from S. America
in the 19th century, the chinese were waiting in ports of spain to unload the gold/silver as payment for the silks and spices and gunpowder……………much of the spanish gold is in china. hat tip peter bernstein in “power of gold”. a real history of gold. no gold bug sales bullshit thing. read it. his book on insurance is tops, too.
Spanish experience in the 20th century is hardly an argument for ending an empire though.
Neither is the terminology of “empire” useful for describing US hegemony.
YOU are a moron. all the men in amerika used the term empire for US in 1800s and early 1900s. i block morons. have a nice life phillip.
= “empire” useful for describing US hegemony.
what hegemony??
in heydays Rome empire was way ahead in terms of hegemony! in any fields!
in 20 th century USSR at least was at par , military , technologically. or way ahead in space , etc .
it was economical model (= communism) that was fuc11ked up!
====
and obv Great Britain was pretty much way ahead any country in world whole 19th century: military, culturally ,and in industrial production!
only by start of 20th century USA and Germany over took in industrial field, and yet GB was center of universe for next 50 years.
buddy, you should read more ebooks!
alx
Trumps reminds me Gorbachev. yeah I was kid in 80x in USSR
Gorbachev probably saw system was fu11cked and recognised need of changes
but his methods were awful
====
he was uneducated party figure who had NO real life experiences, and=or
read some books about free economy, reforms, etc
====
it seems USA is going down same path as USSR!
non functional party system, giant military budget, internal social tensions.
in USA it is race , dems/repubs lines.. in USSR it was Moscow/ non Moscow regions non russian regions : Muslim, baltics, etc .
alx
i was in Russia in 1990s with pals of mine from columbia u, who had defected from USSR and poland in the 80s………….my investment banker pal took me into the board rooms of the oligarchs of oil companies with 500k men working for them……….and many other industries. it was fun and a great experience to see how a crumbling empire plays out……………went to a few rock concerts in red square with other 20 and 30 somethings……….high energy fun for the young folks being free. the geezers north of 40 were mindfucked. i knew a ton of them who came to brighton beach……..where i frequented in summers a subway ride away from our home.
had an oligarch as a client. he escaped the putin purge. he is still in power there. nice fella, really. just a physics oil nerd in right place at the right time. in politboro too. learned a lot from him.
smartest thing Gorby and Yeltsin did was to let the flag officers sell of their military bases and pocket the money and send the enlisted men home…………those fellas became oligarchs but prevented a civil war which might still be waging in old USSR states……….
= gdp numbers – GARBAGE in, GARBAGE out!
USA budget is $2.4 trln y/y.
no need any add. figures.
trade deficit is same , or worse
========
and trump is thinking to start new war in middle east.
biden, no biden , DONT SEE MUCH DIFFERence
USA is fuc11ked.. sorry folks.
alx
A couple of interesting things. When you look at AI hardware-related imports you find that they accounted for the surge in goods imports. Now when you put that against AI-related service exports you see a similar surge abet one a bit smaller. AI is rapidly expanding so the AI-related hardware imports will continue but the investment buildout will result in a higher surge in AI production and AI service exports down the line. At some point, perhaps in 2027, the AI-related exports will overwhelm the AI-related hardware imports as domestic production of the components increase as they are.
Companies everywhere in the world do not have a choice. If they don’t adopt AI they are dead and they know it Today the US commands 50%+ of global high-value AI/digital services trade, far ahead of competitors like China. Will it continue to dominate depends upon whether foreign companies prefer to use Chinese or American AI services in the future. Europe unfortunately blinked and missed the boat on this one. Catching up is going to be impossible at this point for them.
One word: Electricity.
That is the bottleneck for the US but China has other bottlenecks too. The race has just begun.
“If they don’t adopt AI they are dead” – This is complete horseshit. Just like the tulips of old and the dawn of the internet, the craze/fever will result in an a massive mis-allocation of capital and resources until the companies that are not actually adding real products of real value to the average persons life all fuck off and die. AI requires tremendous amount of energy and water. Guess what, so does the system the feeds the fucking planet. In a truly free market all that energy and water would go to where the actual demand is, not into building AI data centers so people can stay home being unproductive and doing things “online”… The devolution of the vast majority of the human population is truly staggering.
like all new tech bubbles most of the companies go bust. but the tech stays. like the internet, autos, RRs……….canals………
I think we should realize by now. What AI wants, AI gets. I am just glad it doesn’t want paperclips…..for now.
we do NOT have the capacity. yet. watch the film, the thinking game> free on youtube.
Headline GDP number is 1.4%. growth rate is contracting like a salted slug in the hottest economy on earth. Got to wonder about Trump asking for supporters to stick with him on tariffs in Georgia yesterday.
That was the target before the money numbers were corrupted. 1st. qtr. 2026 should be low too. The problem is that the economy has been run in reverse for decades.
see: working-paper-80.pdf (cato.org) Banks are Intermediaries of Loanable Funds
Powell: “When times are good in the economy, banks and other lenders tend to have a lot of money to LEND. And in case you didn’t realize, banks are in the business of making money off of loans. So if they can LEND to more people who they believe will pay them back on time, they’ll make more money.
But right now it’s costing banks more to get the funds they need to make loans. Part of that goes back to the Fed’s interest rate hikes. But the other part comes from the recent bank failures. Since many depositors withdrew money from mid-size and regional banks, these banks have less money to LEND.”
The past two months of increases in currency and demand deposits is best explained by a combination of macroeconomic uncertainty, falling interest rates, seasonal patterns, and a renewed preference for liquidity. This will tend to reduce the supply of funds and their velocity.
GDP 1.4!
PCE m/m 0.4% higher than expected…y/y PCE 2.9% Core at 3%
ROLFMAO! The golden age is here! /s
Cut rates? Lol!
oh heavenly pedo protector and father of the covid vax, please watch over all the pederasts. they just have different needs and wants in the century of self, nihilist twat empire. peace and blessing to you my lord pedotus and commander in chief of diddling
We’re not even at war. Can we just disband the damn thing, bring our idiots in uniform, home, and let the rest of the world slaughter itself? If US citizens want to make and sell weapons to the rest of the world, fine, but why do the rest of the taxpayers need to subsidize them???
I have a feeling Iran is prepared for this, and a lot of our guys are gonna get killed.
It will be interesting to see how well the ship defense systems work against an adequately armed enemy.
GDP is a stooopid number just like GDP nowcast. like believing the USSR high command in the 1970s or 80s. they count idiotic items which are anything but productive. the money laundering and stealing from the people for the never ending MICC wars. the USD as a denominator in any calculation is also a big mistake. it’s a moving target which is getting debased by the minute due to computer cursor currency………..by………..
OUR PEDERAST POTUS AND COMMANDER IN CHIEF OF DIDDLING LITTLE BOYS AND GIRLS, IS ON THE JOB. SEE HIS YARMULKE HE WEARS UNDER THE COMB OVER.
@ Mish
Does the platform block links to some websites? Into your article about the Warshington build-up against Iran, I tried posting a link to Corbett’s website about four past attempts by Warshington to start a war specifically with Iran in a way to frame Iran.
Maybe I posted it to the wrong thread and am missing it?
Yes, the platform itself seems to censor. Whereas my comments above and here went through automatically (suggesting you already whitelisted me), posting the obfuscated link went into moderation, automatically.
It reminds me: remember how you, Mish, were added years ago to some list the establishment doesn’t like? IIRC Corbett is on there too.
Anyone with thoughts on what will happen with gold and silver with Trumps latest war?
There are many factors hidden in the “top $500 part” of the gold price that make it, IMO, difficult to predict. Nobody expects it to jump all of a sudden again, and if it does, it won’t maintain it. Is the new true equilibrium circa $4,500? Or will it conquer the hilltop of $5,000 for good? Are there better opportunities than just waiting for $4,800 to become $5,000? If Iran surrenders, won’t the US$ go up, oil and gold down?
Thanks for the thoughts!
In talking my book ~ I am positioned for gold and silver to continue their tear upward because of the global addiction to the printing of fiat. The war is indeed a short term catalyst for sure. If Trump goes through with an attack, I doubt Iran can do anything on its own. No one stepped up to help them last time they got their faces stomped. So it’s very Trump like to beat up a first grader to steal his lunch money.
Stealing Venezuela’s oil turned out to be stealing tar balls that are not easy to refine. Iran has great oil assets, so stealing them is far more advantageous.
If Trump takes over Iran’s oil for his personal use (as he did with Venezuela’s pirated tankers), it really does not benefit the US. Only Trump benefits from that activity. If Trump turns over the Iranian oil that he has our military steal? That could eventually drive oil prices down which would lower gold prices.
The war against Iraq’s fantasy WMD’s cost the US trillions and basically failed. Will this time be different?
>> No one stepped up to help them last time they got their faces stomped.
I read different claims from different parties. In the age of CGI+AI, I am not confident of the claims by Iran. But I am sure almost nothing Oceania says is true, because they lied about everything before CGI+AI and certainly won’t stop now. <– simple reliable heuristic — just like Newtonian mechanics it’s valid except at relativistic speeds.
correction. persia won the iraq war. like Ike, our Pederast Potus and commander in chief of diddling will try to install the shah. this time his son. amerika, fuck yea. all those twats that keep voting uniparty warmongering red and blue are the real problem. too easy to point fingers at donald or sleep joe. point them at yourself and your friends and neighbors. democracy works. i think usa is too weak in 2026 to pull off a “successful” coup like Ike did. ps we profited as a family from shah’s rule. not proud but i was a mere child.
How do you figure that Persia won the Iraq war?
This is s super interesting statement ~ as Persia in a modern context (post 1935) refers to Iran.
Persia? Do you refer to the rich cultural heritage of the Arya? Implying that some form of the historical political Persian empire continues to exist under the flags of the many governments that occupy the former contiguous empire?
the shia took control of iraq after amerika lost. iraq is now a big time ally of persia. unlike in the past century. had a great pal who fought in that bloody war in 1980s.
my iranian pals call themselves persians. and yes, your post is also true. my dad did business with the shah. the shah wanted him fulltime. my dad too smart. he enjoyed his life at 100 wall street. not proud of the blood money but it is what it is. amerikan evil empire at work…………..i won’t vote red or blue. only libertarian or greens for federal office. local and state is a different matter. i vote the woman or man…….
Unless he is moving troops nto place it will be limited. How long did it take to prepare to invade iraq. Air power is great for destruction boots on ground for control.
it is not the price of gold in usd, that matters. it is how many ounces do you have in your possession. the purchasing power of long lasting real, money, will remain, that allows a man to purchase leather shoes, many togas or winter coats and meals and bottles of wine, or whatever one does with one’s money.
through the roof. purchased more silver other day on the drawdown due to lunar new year holiday. i’m shocked it’s been going up. spoke to 3 chinese friends of mine this week. i don’t think individuals there give a hoot about buying metals even with shutdowns………so many have family in west where they can purchase in hand the actual coins. safer way to get the funds out of china………too. i know many chinese folks in canada and usa who pay their family and friends to bring small amounts out of china and get a free vacation in SF or NYC or vancouver by flying in with the cash………and coins……..
No better indicator of what will happen with gold and silver than the options market. The GLD 460 puts for Dec 18 strike sell for 38 and the 490 calls sell for 38 meaning you could make 6.6% return with near zero risk.
If you are confident GLD will go higher then just sell the 490 covered calls and rake in 16% and if gold drops, buy back the calls, when it goes up again, sell them again. You could make 30%+ or more with downside hedges.
Of course, there are no certainties, only probabilities.
I am seeing huge PUT volume for XOP on March 20 expiry at 145 strike. It could be people are betting Trump will TACO on war or hedging risk.
I am also seeing huge CALL volume on XLE, so much so that it looks like the end of the world.
Strange days.
best indicator is the spot market for actual gold and silver bullion in your hand.
Nonsense. The premise of holding gold or silver is to have money. You not only need money today but you will need money tomorrow. You have no way of knowing what gold will be worth a year from now, if it drops back down to $3000 from $5000 you will have lost purchasing power.
Of course, this all changes if you’re geezer waiting for the grim reaper so just go ahead and spend all that gold and silver, what’s the point of keeping it? You can’t take it with you and if you leave it to your kids they’ll just sell it because they need the money now.
All money handling boils down to forecasts and risk management.
nope. wrong amigo. no taxes on gold bullion, either. one can easily travel with it and buy houses or dinners anywhere on planet. i have.
Of course there are taxes on Gold bullion. Very high taxes too. You’ve just chosen to go the illegal route and not gotten caught.
As for traveling with gold, it’s increasingly risky unless you are just taking 1-2 coins. Anything more and you are smuggling (exceed 10K in value) and if you are flying you are very likely to get caught by scanners and have the gold confiscated.
The idea you could travel with enough gold to buy a house is ludicrous unless you are buying a 10K house in the 3rd world.
If you want to cross borders, crypto is the way to go.
You can bury it, too (risk management).
gold and silver, like precious art work, can be gifted to one’s kids or spouses……with nobody knowing. no lawyers or governments or whoever. it’s the greatest asset ever. outperforms all others every century. 4x and 8x better than stocks and r/e for the 21st century so far. NO taxes, too. old or young. it’s the best.
there are no indicators of future of anything that is anything but poppycock. don’t fool yourself, my friend. worse than fooling others.
I sell reasonable volumes of weekly covered calls and puts given the intense IV crush during the last days before expiration.
Today, a rather large pile of naked puts I sold will expire on silver mining stocks that I would have enjoyed adding under last weeks takedown prices.
I do not trade the GLD out of principle but agree that it is high probability and ultra liquid…
for now gold will be up 10/20 % each year, there will be spiking 500 *1000$ probably in case of war!
but real movement will start by end of 2026
market need to chill a bit., esp silver