The New York Times reports Farmers Hope Trade War Ends Before Beans Rot.
Kevin Karel, the general manager of the Arthur Companies, which has long sold soybeans to China. With that market now largely shut off, Mr. Karel said his firm has started to stockpile soybeans.
The latest federal data, through mid-October, shows American soybean sales to China have declined by 94 percent from last year’s harvest.
Mr. Karel, the general manager of the Arthur Companies, which operates six grain elevators in eastern North Dakota, has started to pile one million bushels of soybeans on a clear patch of ground behind some of his grain silos. The big mound of yellowish-white beans, already one of the taller hills in this flat part of the world, will then be covered with tarps.
“I’ve been to China 25 times in the last decade talking about the dependability of U.S. soybeans,” said Kirk Leeds, the chief executive of the Iowa Soybean Association. By undermining that reputation, he said, “We have done long-term damage to the industry.”
Public health officials in North Dakota, already confronting a recent rise in suicides, are concerned about the impact of falling prices, particularly on younger farmers with high levels of debt.
Brandon Hokama, whose family farms 3,500 acres near Ellendale, N.D., estimates that they need a price of $8.75 per bushel of soybeans to break even. Last year at this time, soybeans could be sold for almost $10 per bushel. Now, local elevators are offering prices below $7.
Storing a Record Soybean Crop
You cannot just pile them up indefinitely. Soybeans are a bit more susceptible to spoilage and need to be two percentage points drier.
This year was a Record Harvest so storing the beans before they rot is a record problem.
The Oct. 11 USDA Crop Production report forecasts Iowa farmers to harvest a record 606 million bushels of soybeans and an average yield of 61 bushels per acre.
Many grain elevators and a few farms were already carrying over more old-crop soybeans than normal. USDA reported that U.S. soybean stocks on Sept. 1 stood at 438 million bushels, up 45% from a year ago. Come Sept. 1, 2019, U.S. soybean stocks are forecast to increase to 885 million bushels, which if realized, would be a new record.
In a normal year, natural, unheated air will dry soybeans to 13% moisture. But in cool, wet, fall conditions, supplemental heat may be required.
Soybeans with less than 15% moisture can be dried with bin fans. Soybean seed stored over one planting season should be 12% moisture or less, while carryover seed should be stored at 10% moisture or less.
Compared to corn, soybeans are fragile and can be damaged by air that is too hot or too dry, and can be damaged from rough handling.
Not to fear, we call this “winning”.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Don’ t really understand the aggression in the comment section; it seems relatively clear-cut argument. China has stopped buying soyabean, and price for farmers has dropped to $7. There is no doubt that the bumper crop didn’t help….still don’t really see the fake news here. Trade policy affected Soyabean farmer end of story!
I forgot but isn’t there two sides to every story? The truth is usually somewhere in the middle. The fact that the EXTERMELY biased fake news NYT publishes it immediately makes it suspect.
The problem is the record harvest, not the China ban.
Obviously China has just bought from some other country. But that means whomever was buying from that country is now buying from the US. The global supply and demand hasn’t changed and for the most part (baring record good/bad harvests) supply = demand. The reason for that should be obvious. It takes years of planning and equipment to harvest a crop (ie in your back yard you can switch from soybeans to corn on a yearly whim but farmers planting thousands of acres can’t because they need special equipment/fertilizers/soil type/transportation/storage etc) commercially. A real change will take years of the trade war.
“I’ve been to China 25 times in the last decade talking about the dependability of U.S. soybeans” – Kirk Leeds, Iowa Soybean Assoc.
King Cotton never regained its crown over the American south after the Civil War as Egypt, India and other places moved in to fill the supply gap.
The party is over and you cannot hope to survive the hangover. 2018 is going to mark the year Americans remember as the last great Christmas of their generation.
Just think how much worse it would be for Farmers if we got rid of the Ethanol mandates and subsidies!
Treasury borrowin 90 billion THIS WEEK ALONE LOL! 95 billion next week……me thinks they need those tariffs (and then some) more than ever before!!!!
I have to agree with JL1 — reports in the New York Times have to be taken with a grain of salt, particularly if there might be a political slant to the story. Everything the Lefties touch turns to dust, including the NYT’s once sterling reputation for accuracy.
What is the other side of this story? Are Chinese people going hungry because of the lack of soy beans? Or are food prices rising in China? In the old days, the NYT would have covered the whole story.
As an aside, a friend in China reports that the Chinese government is offering its citizens a special “This Month Only” deal — they can pre-pay 5 years of annual Social Security obligations, locking in the price before rumored future price increases.
This suggests that the Chinese government needs the money. Perhaps the Chinese government will become more willing to come to the negotiating table about their unsustainable trade imbalance? It also suggests that the Chinese government has done a great job of learning Western marketing techniques!
“Everything the Lefties touch turns to dust, including the NYT’s once sterling reputation for accuracy”
Yes because Fox News is a paragon of accuracy. The only accuracy you and JL1 like is the one that agrees with your orange guy.
“Public health officials in North Dakota, already confronting a recent rise in suicides, are concerned about the impact of falling prices, particularly on younger farmers with high levels of debt.”
I can only assume here that “Public health officials in North Dakota” are “in it” with the NYT.
If this was the Titanic Trump supporters will deny that the ship is about to sink. Even after it sunk they would blame Hillary.
I’ve seen this movie before with Chaves adoring fans in Venezuela so I know exactly how it ends. BTW Chaves to demonized the press until it ran them out of bzns
In totalitarian, financialized dystopias, no press will ever be any more accurate than the one Goebbels at one point oversaw.
When all wealth are distributed by government fiat, according to how willing one is to mindlessly parrot regime propaganda, there is no longer any incentive for the press to print anything other that what benefit’s the class of regime sycophants and beneficiaries.
Just as there is no incentive for companies to produce things efficiently, since all money comes from sales of paper to those the junta has decided to enrich by fiat. No incentive for erstwhile educational institutions to bother with reality and accuracy, since they too are judged simply on how good a job they do of flattering and furthering the regime.
Fox and NYT are both owned, ran and given privileged access to “sccops,” by people who owes their wealth and privilege entirely to the regime. Because that’s where all wealth and privilege stems from in dystopias. Any seeming difference between thei two outlets’ outlooks, is just bread and circuses. Aimed at keeping the regime’s captive drones reliably dumb, uncritical, pliable and looking the other way; as they are robbed, raped, pillaged and exploited.
Apologies for bursting your bubble Carlos, but personally I watch Fox News as often as I watch CNN — which is to say, never!
Take a step back for a moment. Think about what Lefties have done to the Church of England; to the Catholic Church; to stand-up comedy; to the Universities; to the movies; to the Supreme Court; to science fiction writing; to the BBC. Everything Lefties touch turns to dust. It is undeniable.
Another Trumptard nutter- good grief.
Carlos, words of wisdom. Oh yeah. The Trump true believers saw him as the ultimate mastermind. They perceived the man’s every move, every word uttered, every breath taken as a masterful move to crush his opponents and implement a plan well beyond the comprehension of mere mortals. The master 4-D chess player, hell 12-D chess player.
Nowadays, the bright bulbs of this collection of idiots have just shut up, hoping nobody else remembers their Trump boot licking. However, some idiots are still too stupid to see they were duped by a hustler, or they will do the idiot thing of doing anything to save face. These folks will be the loyal indentured servants of those with two brain cells to rub together.
Your TDS can be cured it will require electroshock therapy and a taser. You will feel much better afterward dog.
I would think that the customers that were getting soybeans from the countries that are selling to China would buy them from the US instead. Why is this not happening? Is there an excess of soybeans disrupting the supply/demand balance. I would like to think this is the price we have to pay in order to get fairer trade terms from China. They are screwing us royally and using the profits to then try to become the worlds dominant military power. Thats winning for China. I don’t care what the textbooks say about free trade. They don’t take into consideration enriching a malevolent country that would like to subdue and dominate the world. They are communists and have already murdered at least 50 million of their own citizens. A trade war will cause price inflation if it persists, but that would be great for the idiots at the FED who keep touting how beneficial inflation is. Your alternative is to let capitalism reign here and sell out or future to these ruthless bastards.
“They don’t take into consideration enriching a malevolent country that would like to subdue and dominate the world.”
You mean like a country that says that they will not stop arms sales to the Saudis just because they are killing civilians in Yemen or because they torture and then kill a reporter in the Saudi embassy in Turkey . That kind of malevolent? Do you have any Kool aid left?
Brillant! That makes us a bad as the communist Chinese. Who is drinking cool aid? If we don’t sell arms to the Saudis someone else will if you can think that far out. Is that worse than your savior Obama overthrowing Khaddfi or Bengazi or withdrawing from Iraq to let ISIS (which he was instrumental in starting to fight Assad) murder countless innocent civilans many of which were Christians.
There are two very wrong things with your argument: 1) That I’m a democrat who admires Obama (wrong). 2) That I was making an argument against selling arms. I wasn’t. I was making an argument against your comment against your “malevolent” comment for china as if we are any better. You can make any argument you want but remember: “people who live in glass houses shouldn’t throw stones”.
I would argue that we are hippocrites no doubt but on the malevoent scale we are nowhere near the Chinese.
USA should tell Saudis to STOP the genocide that Saudis(sunnis) are committing in Yemen against Yemeni shias through starvation tactics and indiscriminate bombing immediately and confiscate all Saudi property and investments in USA if the bombing and starvation tactics are not stopped.
That is apparently happening. Iran just bought a large quantity of soybeans, presumably to resell to China. I doubt the beans will rot, any more than they would in any other year with a record harvest. Rather, the price will fall, which it already has. The drop in price makes up for the necessary middle men (i.e. Iran) to get their profit.
If the cost to produce is below selling price, as mentioned in this particular case, you dont need to take the time considering different scenarios. Well, not until several farmers go out of business leaving only a few standing. I guess they could always subsidize for the tarriff losses lol!
Record harvests usually lead to more soybeans to store…
The company whose soybean pile that is has reported that the soybean pile was the same size last year so this is FAKE NEWS from NYT.
Also USA exported more soybeans than in the same period last year so this is FAKE NEWS upon FAKE NEWS.
Good post.
So the company that has that pile is the elevator company (they don’t plant, they buy from farmers).
“Brandon Hokama, whose family farms 3,500 acres near Ellendale, N.D., estimates that they need a price of $8.75 per bushel of soybeans to break even. Last year at this time, soybeans could be sold for almost $10 per bushel. Now, local elevators are offering prices below $7.”
Yeap keep saying “Fake news” as farmers go out of bzns…
Amigo, no sé si hablas español, pero soy de Colombia. Es incredible a mi la mentalidad de los miembros del partido de Trump/Republicanos- como explicar la locura de ellos.
Do you have PROOF to support your claim or do you expect people with a brain to accept on face value the mumblings of an anonymous MAGA piehole? You know, links to reputable sources.