Technically and fundamentally, my answer is yes. 
What Are Gaps?
- Gaps UP occur when a stock opens above the high of the previous day and stays there for the session.
- Gaps Down occur when a stock opens below the low of the previous day and stays there for the session.
In both instances charts appear as if they have a hole. That’s the gap.
Shorting a stock with stacked down gaps is asking for trouble as is buying a stock with stacked up gaps.
$NDX – Nasdaq 100 Daily Chart
I expected a rally after the stacked down gaps, but nothing like what happened.
Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, nearly retraced the entire move lower.
The context is Trump’s trade war, then 90 day suspensions, and now the trade war is back on big time, with additional threats on Apple and the EU.
Bond Market
On May 21, I discussed The Bond Market Is Fed Up with Fiscal Irresponsibility, Yields Surge
The yield on the long bond and the 10-year Treasury surged today on deficit concerns.
The fundamentals and the technical charts are singing the same tune.
Q: What Tune Is That?
A: Stagflation accompanied by a weakening US dollarStagflation is not baked in the cake, but the fundamentals and technicals both point in that direction now.
A return to reciprocal tariffs with increased prices would exacerbate inflation and recession issues.
A return to reciprocal tariffs is now the word of the day.
“Talks Going Nowhere”, Trump Threatens EU with a 50 Percent Tariff in June
Earlier today I noted “Talks Going Nowhere”, Trump Threatens EU with a 50 Percent Tariff in June
What happened to Trump’s claim “200 deals already”?
Obvious from the Beginning: The EU is never going to give up its VAT so EU talks were always doomed from the start on this reciprocal nonsense.
Progress was always imaginary.
The stock market rallied on the back of imaginary progress and tariff rollbacks. Today Trump all but admitted that there is no progress.
Looking ahead, the technical patterns on equities scream for those gaps to be filled, and the technicals on bonds scream of stagflation.
The bond market could get a reprieve if stocks collapse fast enough and a recession hits fast enough.
From reading the comments on your blog I’m guessing most sold on 11/5/24, 1/25/25 or on Liberation day. Great analysis but probably too late for many.
What “Big Rally” are you referring to – since 4/7 or the almost 500% rally of the 2009 low? If the former, the the real question is what happens after the gaps get filled, as this is very short-term thinking.
Once again, you ignore the elephant in the room when it comes to the direction of stocks WAR! The smart money has been fleeing the next killing zone – Europe, because when the bullets start flying the EU will impose capital controls that includes shutting down the popular money exchanger, Bitcoin.
With war and inevitability, unless you see a miracle for the euro and pension schemes, capital will continue to flee to the US, just like in WWI and I. A country could get rich establishing “numbered” accounts again, since the Swiss fell victim to the WEF.
“Shorting a stock with stacked down gaps is asking for trouble as is buying a stock with stacked up gaps.”
Gaps create an imbalance from sudden rapid price movement. Filling in the gaps, re-balances. Markets revert to the mean.
The rudderless dems blame Fetterman and Trump for their demise. Josh Shapiro closed 7 state colleges, bc enrollment is 50% down and the students don’t pay. If Trump’s Big and Beautiful approved by senate 300K out of 3M on medicare will lose their benefits in PA. 150K out of 2M Pennsylvanians will lose their snap benefits. PA hospitals and high schools either merge or closed. PA population is 13 millions. The boomers immigrated and the zoomers will rule the state.The dems ousted PGH woke mayor and voted for Corey O’connor, the son of ex PGH mayor and Judy Levine O’Connor. Corey paid tribute to his late father. The dems uniparty ruled PGH for a hundred years. Josh has Trump’s target on his back.
American consumer debt at the Michigan consumer sentiment tipping point with the resumption of repayable 1.6 trillion college loan debt and the collapsing deflationary Chinese property bubble are driving the 1982 to 2026 13/33 year 1st and 2nd fractal global credit cycle. While sovereign central banks can print money in parallel, individual citizens cannot. Will the 1807 US x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5x :: 36/90/90/54 year 4-phase fractal series be replicated by a self similar 27 Oct 2023 55/139/138/83 day fractal series ending with an incipient nadir on about 17 June 2025 with a transient SPX low of about 3500? Time will tell.
In the next few days solar eruptions might shutdown the internet, destroying our satellites.
Is that like saying movement along the New Madrid fault might cause a catastrophic earthquake in the next few days? According to knowledgeable people-
“QUIET WEEKEND: The sun is peppered with at least 9 sunspot groups. However, they are all stable and quiet. Strong solar flares are not expected this weekend.”
https://spaceweather.com/
put down the acid and stick to chem trails and cult leaders
Trump’s 50% Tariff On European Union Decried As ‘Islamophobic’ | Babylon Bee
Muslim Bros took over EuroArabia. Macron and von der Leyen are two spineless leaders, blowing in the wind, who don’t know how to respond. They blame Israel’s genocide and blockade for inspiring protests, shifting the blame. Did FDR feed Japs and Nazi Germany in WWII. Did GB and Wilson feed the starving Germans in WWI: legally we don’t have to feed our enemies. After WWI German scientist designed the “Starvation Plan”. In the next war, if it comes, the Germans will eat farmer cheese and bread. The Jews and the gypsies will be slaughtered. And the master race will enslave the inferior slavs. In WWII Hitler adopted the “Starvation Plan” which complemented the Third Reich creed and dominance.
Hmmm. Two Hitler fans?
they are hate filled kooks. there is a cult leader that makes those lives worth living.
Solar eruptions destroyed your brain.
Next to fall is the Vatican and the Ottoman empire will be restored. Its Islams desire to multiply faster than the Christians world and thus conquer the globe.
all 3 branches of abrahamic religion are technically batshit crazy.
Which one was responsible for 911??
ALL 3 ABRAHAMICS. muslim hijackers. jewish mossad on the flights following them, and their lookouts on jersey side of ny harbor. and of course the christian bush crime family who wrote the project for the new amerikan century need for a new pearl harbor.
Erdogan has stated his aspirations for reestablishing the Ottoman Empire, which are almost as insane as the “petite Napoleon”, who thinks Russia can be defeated and France will rule the world with the $75 trillion in Russian resources.
dad actually guarded nazis in the war. amerikans treated them very decently. they were happy not to be on eastern front. the Zionists of israel are the new nazis.
Fun how Trump’s personal internal stuff becomes policy. Like his derision for all foreigners. His desire to wall off and make a gated exclusive class-stratified Switzerland out of a country least like that, forever until now. His interesting internal landscape becomes our everyday reality. Note: he is not getting younger, so this is likely to become even more entertaining. A good, if very loosely relevant analogy is the late days of Stalin, when the fellow went after, for example, his doctors, as a national policy, and meddled with crop genetics in a big way.
Most of his wives have been foreigners.!
There are a variety of interesting stress-tests of the system, different combinatory scenarios to play with mentally (and on a street near you, next week). Resetting 150 years of what was formerly known as The American Century, forcibly top-down from a super-networked federal government, in a compressed time with a bunch of TV personalities steering, was certain to be an entertaining choice of possible bizarre bank-shot crapshoots, with the national future rent money riding on it (except the exempt alpha predators can head for low orbit or libertarian treasure islands). But if it is suddenly Monopoly money and fantasy equities, who cares anyway, right? Sorry to mangle metaphors. The life raft for the plebs is 10x leveraged stablecoins, wahoo. Good thing holiday gas is cheap.
I don’t try to time the market in my retirement. I just try to buy good companies and hold them as long as the story is good. Professional traders have a leg-up over amateurs because they have much better access to information both formal and unformal. Once you no longer have that access it’s like being blind in one eye and the one left is nearsighted when it comes to trading. On the other hand by being stepped back you can have a better feel for groundswell movements. This may be one and could account for the sharp snap back after the drop. Pessimistic people do not buy. As for charting, they are great for telling why you should have bought at this point and why you should have sold at this other one. When few people looked at charts they worked well then everyone started looking at the same charts and they became less certain for trading.
Memorial Day: Rubio fired, in an email, pentagon, cia and state dept workers, spreading maga.
Rubio stays. Works well with LatAm.
Need to fire the entire CIA.
If u glue 1M SPX Feb, Mar and Apr together May is an inside bar. Hikkaki risk: SPX might rise to a new all time high – not in a straight line – before a plunge. Bar by bar stock traders don’t care. All they care is about accumulating between 0.5% and 1.5% Net per week. It’s good enough. It’s a trading system with a feedback loop and a strong filter to prevent large losses. Losses avoidance is bad. BRK.B has $350B in cash.
Most people all over the world hate the US. “Americanism” is beyond peak. It have been decaying for years. After WWII our elite universities: Harvard, Stanford, Yale, MIT… accepted foreign students to spread our way of life all over the world. JFK exported our kids to frontier countries as foreign policy “influencers”. In the last decades money flow from the Gulf states and Turkey spread Islam in our colleges. Our students became Islamic agents. After Oct 2023 the Islamic bubble peaked. Trump is trying to prick it, but it’s difficult. Qatar spent millions to re-educate our children. It’s a tiny state with great ego. It’s our largest airbase. It’s buying dozes of Boeing F-15 to beef its defense, Al Jazeera is its mouthpiece. Qatar mediates between Israel and Hamas, buying both sides with money. It mediates between Iran and the US. Trump can bend Israel will and make a nuke deal. If Israel dismantled ==> so will Iran. A peaceful ME, without nukes, is better than radiations and death.
I don’t try to predict the level of the stock market, particularly in the short term. In the very long run, it will be up, but in the short run it’s a wild guess. As markets hit new highs, I tend to increase my cash and decrease my core holdings (sell the rips). I use my cash to day trade, which is very lucrative when markets are volatile like they are lately.
I am expecting a recession to begin later this year IF Trump keeps the tariff and trade war going, so I have been increasing my cash levels and decreasing core holdings. The tariff uncertainty is killing business investment decisions. Which over time will result in a weaker economy. But it will take several more months for the impact to hit.
I rotated out of Equities and Bonds and invested in low-income housing. I am now a slum lord and I am kicking out all whites. The Section 8 housing gig is lucrative. I hired a tough to keep the drug dealers at bay and they are paying us a Vig.
Lots of ways to invest. Good luck with yours.
Slumlord Millionaire!
Yields on Japanese bonds have been rising too. The BOJ is no longer buying bonds, but letting existing portfolio mature.
Same with China. Japan however is bordering on a currency crisis so it may have to sell some of its dollars to defend the Yen. Japan has $1.15 trillion USD’s to sell if it needs to.
China is rolling over its purchases and buying lots of gold to support its currency and tier one assets with its excess trade receipts. Soon those trade receipts may include Euros and Rubles.
My bet is on a black October but a month earlier or later isn’t out of the question for a true correction. So far we’ve just gotten hiccups. Eventually, all of Trump’s cancer will metastasize and cause real damage.
MAGA voters not happy in Michigan.
https://thesarkariform.com/michigan-voted-for-maga-now-their-unemployment-rate-is-soaring-from-4-4-to-5-5/
MAGA farm voters in Vermont have deep regret.
https://thesarkariform.com/we-voted-for-trump-to-fix-the-border-now-were-milking-cows-alone-at-4-a-m-vermont-farmers-face-harsh-reality-as-ice-raids-hit-home/
I know a farmer close to where my daughter lives in Vermont whose business is growing about 35 different varieties of apples. He does very well and I asked him last summer how he gets his apples picked. He said he brings in workers from Jamaca under the H2-A visas which are specific for agricultural workers and the workers work very well. He said he never uses illegals because the Jamaicans work much better and since they are legal and under contract are stable labor. That dairy farmer in the article found out that using illegals has hidden costs that the apple farmer doesn’t have.
As an aside I made the mistake of asking him which varieties are best and he gave me a rundown on each variety, the week it is best and the weather conditions that gave the best taste. I was totally confused at the end
Great story !
Rastafarians to the rescue
build back better by making America great again!
Plus they all know how to BAKE!!!!
Apple phones, Apple pie Ala Jamaica mon!!!!
Dumb fat whitey need not apply for Apple picking, building, etc!!!
All of us old rich white folk were wondering who was going to do all that manual labor!
Sure isn’t going to be YOUR progeny!!!!
Listen to Bob, Don worry bout a ting
Except he and his wife would work alongside them picking apples as well as their eldest daughter. It’s not a sugar plantation. It’s an orchard and the Jamaicans are hired help and not slaves. Why do you make fun of farmers who follow the laws? You sound like someone who works at Starbucks. Do you?
They make money during the picking season then they go back to Jamaica in winter and make more money banging over-the-hill single cat-lady Karens in winter. Works out for everyone.
A good gig. I can have housing for them in an instant. I also hire the drug dealers and we all make out.
I think the fundamental problem is that there aren’t enough H2 visas to go around. Search google news on ‘H2 visas’ and you’ll find a ton of articles
https://www.seafoodsource.com/news/supply-trade/us-senators-renew-effort-to-exempt-seasonal-seafood-workers-from-visa-caps
Bizarre.
Guess the interviewee’s hopes that drug testing of detained people would sort out the “bad” undocumented people from the “good” ones wasn’t realistic. A shame that in previous years he didn’t help the workers get proper paperwork, but one might suppose if they were adequately documented they might require a higher wage.
What a shame that farmers have to milk their cows. Perhaps they should have sought other employment heaven forbid they have to get their hands dirty
Ultimately, the higher prices will be passed on to you from either lack of milk or higher labor costs, choose your poison.
The costs of dairy price supports are passed on to the public.
Along with my slum housing, I am buying used Vans and we are bringing in illegals from Canada who want to work. ALL IS WELL.
New York City residents faced the harsh reality of an illegal alien invasion under Biden/Harris. As did Chicago and other cities and towns across the country. Martha’s Vineyard kicked them out as fast as they could, instead of welcoming them.
An an absolute decline in tourism nationally from foreign visitors not to mention Trumps recent student fiasco.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/travel/north-america-travel/absolute-decline-collapse-in-u-s-tourist-spending/ss-AA1FjRN7
I think the article is confusing real tourists with fake tourists who came because they expected to be able to stay forever. Trump cut that expectation off. The corresponding increase in outflows sort of confirms it. Nevertheless there has been a drop in real international tourists but domestic tourism is very strong. Strangely enough Canadian flights to Palm Beach County have actually increased by 15% since Trump announced his tariffs. Perhaps they are refugies from Canida’s new left-wing government? Canadians make up only 1.7% of Florida’s tourists so it doesn’t really matter.
Never in history has so many sheeple had access to so much leverage without any ability since 2020. I mean any kid can get leverage now, stock accounts were opened in the hundreds of millions from all around the world. I mean these people have no knowledge at all, they were brainwashed into buying options which is unbelievably foolish, they are in massive debt, they lost it all & still they come back for more. I have calculated these idiots use 3000 times leverage, 6000 times leverage, it’s absolutely insane & not by chance did this happen. The fallout has really happened yet cuz banks & financial institutions are hiding it, Governments are hiding it. I mean do banks even have any capital limits anymore cuz I doubt it, I wouldn’t be surprised if there tier 1 capital it in the toilet, something far lower than 2008. This can’t be stopped, eventually the losses can’t be hidden like 2008, the banks, financial institutions & governments can’t force the sheeple to repay what they can’t repay. This doesn’t even include the losses on Gov bonds which are far more than they admit. Even in the great depression you didn’t see every idiot using massive leverage like this. Think about that, 15 minutes to open an account at a broker & you can be gambling using 6,000 times leverage, sounds unbelievable to most, it’s true though, in fact some have infinite leverage. Let me give an example, pick any broker, a person registers & get an account, uses a credit card to deposit 5k, then buy options which can be 100x leverage or more depending on price, then buy a leveraged etf x3 or x5, that’s already infinite leverage cuz with zero money of your own you can buy 300 x 5000= $1.5 million of assets, or 500 x $5,000= $2.5 million. Hell they can even have a leverage account with 10 times leverage on top to buy the options resulting in $1.5 million x 10 = $15 million, or $25 million. Any clown can get this level of access without the need of a professional account & sheeple wonder why the hyper bubble exists in all assets, never in history has this happened. God help us all cuz even innocent sheeple will lose it all.
so i assume you’re writing puts.
NO, why would I get involved in the insanity, it’s impossible to calculate when this madness will explode, I’m just pointing to scale of corruption & it’s inevitable collapse. Not everything is about money. This will cause chaos for everyone.
The mid / late 1920s weren’t The Great Depression. Plenty of leverage / over leverage, especially in what were considered ‘mutual funds’ then. I get what you’re saying though, and agree.
Just stop with the technical analysis. It doesn’t work.
Don’t panic David, just don’t be greedy & sell
Imma a suckhuh for doom and gloom, dat’s why imma all ways watching da Mish end of the world blog-o-rama!!!
You are my new most favorite Talib black duck commentor of all time since cheeky bastard and cognitive dissonance!!!
Keep up the good work!
I’ve been SHORT since 3/9/2009!!!
.
Making money hand over fist with great fore-casters like you!!!
The greatest show on earth besides POTUS!!!
YAYYYYYY!
You have no idea what you are talking about or the primary use of TA.
It is about safe entry-exit points not a prediction mechanism.
Another random act of economic instability.
Tariff’s are acts of economic war according to Warren Buffett and cause tensions and de-stabilize relationships. Trumps actions against Europe open the door for both Russia as a supplier of energy and China as a reliable trading partner.
Let’s think about the unintended consequences of the 50% tariff on the EU that our importers and citizens will be paying:
This is of course the tip of the iceberg as far as unintended consequences go and you can feel free to add to the list. Trumps disregard for long term relationships is stunning and destructive.
The U.S. has become the least reliable nation for trade as trump not only declares random, punitive tariffs, he breaks trade agreements or negotiating deadlines on a whim.
It is pointless to negotiate with trump or his team of sycophants.
.
The lowest Memorial Day gas prices at the pump in years, under Trump. TNX surged today bc SPX might reach 7K/8K (1,300 x 1.618 ==> 7K).
Hasn’t it dawned on you yet lower gas price means your economy is imploding?? You say SPX 7k or 8k like it’s nothing from these levels, you talking tens of trillions in higher valuations. For what are these obscene valuations? Sure the S&P can easily go to 8k when the Dollar loses 99% of it’s value cuz that’s is the only way.
Stock prices do not decline in a hyperinflation.
The stock market is “forward-looking” and sees that is where we are headed.
Yes, you are saving 25 cents a gallon on gas this Memorial Day, but your auto insurance premiums have tripled in the past four years.
###WINNING
There are gaps all the way back to 900 on the S&P which will be filled. That’s 85% from here people……………. Hold at your peril. This ship is going down so fast & so hard it’ll turn boys it to real men
Preaching to the CHOIR JACK!!!
BURN IT TO THE GROUND!
IMMA STOCKED UP ON AMMO AND FEMALE COMPANY!
YOU ARE BLASTED TO KINGDOM COME IF WE SEE YOU LOOKING FOR A HANDOUT!
BOOM!
YOU AND YOU’S PUTS ARE KAPUT!
Our economy is run by people that don’t participate in it and our tech companies are directed by people that don’t experience the problems
https://www.wheresyoured.at/the-era-of-the-business-idiot/?ref=themorningnews.org
while true … it’s also the longstanding precedent. not sure what we’re supposed to do with that but the people controlling the money supply and spending the tax revenues have never been common people.
Just think if we didn’t have an oil supply side shock.
And wait till the Treasury refills the TGA.
its basically November 6th right now
Soon you’ll think it’s Armageddon…..
i know! buying apple at 15x earnings would be an absolute disaster. i’m not sure i’d ever recover. i can’t imagine the horror of a recession, all of those people and businesses having to act rationally and responsibly again … can you imagine the horror!!!! i know, i know … this time it’s different. this is the first time we’ve ever seen sticky inflation and a potential contraction. it’s never happened before! this coming (if even) event will be the one that irreparably ends everything.
remind me to never get in a foxhole with you.
You, me, and uncle Warren will be mopping up the blood on the street!
Come along JACK infin you have the sack.
Check your wife’s purse if you have a wife.
Your sack might be in there…
If you don’t have a wife, hold on tight to your sack because it’s going to get WILD!!!
Above you asked if I’m writing puts & here ya bragging about your probably fake purchase of Apple at 15 times earnings. First of all the phrase (This time is different) applies to bulls which is you right now, second Apple at 15 times earnings is meaningless, earnings to today’s earnings or date of purchase, this indicates to me you purchased nothing & own nothing. Your comments are combative & ya failing, my comment was just pointing out that very chaotic times are ahead. I will not be in a foxhole, as you can see I’m comfortable with the truth & it’s consequences, it’s you that will be hiding in a foxhole & already mentally are, this is clearly evident in your inability to even consider my thesis & revert straight to denial, delusion, maybe also lies & fantasies. I’m not asking for you to believe anything or fear anything, just be prepared & alert.
not only do you not know what it means to write a put, you can’t read. buying Apple at 15x would be a great opportunity when all the panic idiots like you start fear selling. you sound like a freshman in college.
Stop trying to cover for your mistakes, writing a put is writing a contract to cover a fall in prices, I didn’t understand because you didn’t explain what you meant. You can’t talk about buying Apple at 15x earnings & expect everyone to know whether you bought or waiting to buy. So really you have zero theory, your comments are worthless. You say if they collapse you’ll buy, whoopy doo, they’ll fall to less than 10 times earnings so buy then. All this back & forth & you do not understand what writing a put is & have zero idea about where the market is or going, you’ll just buy apple at 15x if they do fall, who says they will rise back anyway. You are so smart you’ll buy after the collapse I predicted at 15x and they’ll drop to below 10x & won’t get back to your purchase price in your own lifetime. At least be a man & admit you’re clueless & bored so make things up for some interaction online.
it’s not my fault if you don’t understand what the word “would” means. I’m starting to think it may not be your fault either. we’re not all born with fully functioning brains.
it’s also clear you don’t know what a foxhole is. I’m starting to feel really bad for your parents.
I wasted all that time typing believing you might bring forth some insight but ya clueless, ya just a bored troll, Bill, please get a life, stop wasting mine. I made a comment of my views, you do not have to agree & you hurling of insult or put downs are really not doing you any favours. I maintain my belief, at least I have one & explained it in detail, you just make things up as you go, no one is forcing you to believe, no one is forcing you to agree.Don’t be embarrassed at being schooled, I wouldn’t dream of bringing your parents into the debate, that’s just losing on an epic scale really..
my belief = buy risk assets when other people sell them. I’m sorry your parents failed you so hard that you were not able to understand that even though it’s clearly what I’ve said over and over again.
Why would I write puts if I think the market will collapse, puts are insurance, if the market does collapse I’ll have to pay, see, you have no idea what ya talking about. Why would I not buy puts should be your suggestion as a hedge if I’m certain, the answer is above, right now everything is in a hyperbubble, bubbles are illogical, one cannot predict what millions of mad sheeple will do next, the only certainty is a massive collapse to reality. The world wont end, reality will return. I don’t gamble, I suggest no else does either.
oh my gosh. you have no idea what it means to write a put. that’s hysterical.
I will gladly let you pay me to do what I plan to do otherwise if the market drops. dork.
Writing a put is agreeing to buy a stock at a price today, if I say a collapse is coming and that is how this conversation started why would I agree to buy stocks from anyone at today’s prices? That’s basically writing insurance against what I predict losing me money when I’m right. Please Bill stop humiliating yourself, being stupid isn’t as bad as being stupid & thinking ya smart. Just ask questions if ya don’t know, stop pretending you know & even arguing in front of everyone who know ya wrong. I trying not to humiliate you but you insist on doing it to yourself.
this is absolutely hysterical. you have no idea how options work.
My prediction is these two get married one day
Imma getting!!!
Like Armageddon only we have enough stashed to put you and all your puts into the next life…
Get it?
Come for us and go to forever after.
.
Up, down, your decision!
Kindly learn to read & for that matter type too, I said I have zero puts & I’m not writing puts, why the hell would I write puts if I’m saying it’s all gonna collapse?