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NVDA Jumps 24 Percent, Flirts With $1 Trillion Market Cap, and Biggest Jump Ever

NVDA chart courtesy of StockCharts.Com, annotations by Mish

Blowout Earnings

Last night Nvidia Reported Blowout Earnings that exceeded all analyst estimates.  

  • Quarterly revenue of $7.19 billion, up 19% from previous quarter
  • Record Data Center revenue of $4.28 billion
  • Second quarter fiscal 2024 revenue outlook of $11.00 billion

That was easily enough to blow shorts out of the water.

Good, Bad and Ugly

  • Nvdia reported revenue for the first quarter ended April 30, 2023, of $7.19 billion, down 13% from a year ago and up 19% from the previous quarter.
  • GAAP earnings per diluted share for the quarter were $0.82, up 28% from a year ago and up 44% from the previous quarter. 
  • Non-GAAP earnings per diluted share were $1.09, down 20% from a year ago and up 24% from the previous quarter.

That’s quite the jump for performance that is down 13 percent from a year ago. But if you wish to focus on the positive, GAAP earnings are up 28 percent from a year ago.

 Spotlight AI

“The computer industry is going through two simultaneous transitions — accelerated computing and generative AI,” said Jensen Huang, founder and CEO of NVIDIA.

“A trillion dollars of installed global data center infrastructure will transition from general purpose to accelerated computing as companies race to apply generative AI into every product, service and business process.

“Our entire data center family of products — H100, Grace CPU, Grace Hopper Superchip, NVLink, Quantum 400 InfiniBand and BlueField-3 DPU — is in production. We are significantly increasing our supply to meet surging demand for them,” he said.

Headed for a Record?

The Wall Street Journal notes “If the gains hold through Thursday trading, the graphics-chip maker could beat Amazon for the largest one-day gain in market capitalization of any U.S. company. It would need to close at $382.82 or higher to surpass Amazon’s record on Feb. 4, 2022.”

It would need to close at $404.86 or higher to reach a market cap of $1 trillion

Neither happened. 

Cathy Wood Dumped NVDA in February

On the humorous side, Bloomberg reports Cathie Wood’s ARKK Dumped Nvidia Stock Before $560 Billion Surge

Wood said Nvidia’s valuation was ‘very high’ in February. She dumped NVDA from her flagship ARKK ETF but did hold it in much smaller amounts in other portfolios.

NVDA PE

Ycharts says NVIDIA PE Ratio 221.78 for May 25, 2023.

NVDA is certainly not a value play. 

Technically Speaking

Technically speaking, I note two enormous gaps that I expect will fill. 

Gaps occur when a stock opens above the high of the previous day or below the low of the previous day, and stays there for the whole session. 

The two gaps on the lead chart are both enormous.

My comments are not a recommendation to short. Story stocks can get even more extreme before they crumble. It’s generally a mistake to short on valuation. 

At the same time, I ask: What will NVDA do for an encore with a PE in the stratosphere?

Meanwhile, party on dudes. 

This post originated on MishTalk.Com.

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21 Comments
Newest
Oldest Most Voted
Irondoor
Irondoor
3 years ago
JP Morgan filed a trademark patent for “IndexGPT”. Supposedly it will offer AI investment advice. The rubes will jump on this and those with the first “inside info” will gladly sell them the stock that the machine recommends.
Bam_Man
Bam_Man
3 years ago
Even based on 2024 forward earnings the P/E on this thing is still almost 60.
Reminds me of CSCO circa 1999.
It took CSCO 20+ years to grow into that valuation.
radar
radar
3 years ago
Mish, are you still expecting 2400 on the S&P, it seems to be holding up pretty well with rates as high as they are.
bernanke airdrop
bernanke airdrop
3 years ago
Reply to  radar
Mish has been expecting a housing collapse for like 5 years, https://mishtalk.com/economics/housing-collapse-coming-right-up
This stuff is never going down in nominal terms until the US government is gone because there is no political will to allow for deflation.
Christoball
Christoball
3 years ago
Is AI nothing more than sophisticated plagiarism with an incredible data base????? Me thinks so.
KidHorn
KidHorn
3 years ago
Reply to  Christoball
Looks that way to me. It’s the new cold fusion.
Zardoz
Zardoz
3 years ago
Reply to  KidHorn
While it’s overhyped, it definitely has a lot of solid applications. Cold fusion had none.
It’s a massive boon to creative people with limited educations.
KidHorn
KidHorn
3 years ago
Reply to  Zardoz
You don’t think unlimited free energy had solid applications.
Zardoz
Zardoz
3 years ago
Reply to  KidHorn
No, I think cold fusion had zero applications, because it didn’t actually do anything. Was quite a letdown.
Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
3 years ago
Reply to  Zardoz
Cold fusion isn’t done yet.
Zardoz
Zardoz
3 years ago
Reply to  Lisa_Hooker
‘ees only napping!
Quagmire46
Quagmire46
3 years ago
I wonder how much NVDA Pelosi owns?
Zardoz
Zardoz
3 years ago
Reply to  Quagmire46
She secretly authored Chat GPT to further her conspiracy to take over the world!
dtj
dtj
3 years ago
Nvidia screwed so many over the last few years. Gamers. Miners. Video card makers. EVGA rightfully dumped them last year because of their abusive practices. And the reward Nvidia gets? More billions thrown their way.
Zardoz
Zardoz
3 years ago
Reply to  dtj
They make a product people want, and people buy it. The tantrums are irrelvant.
bernanke airdrop
bernanke airdrop
3 years ago
Reply to  dtj
The Add-in-board partner model is so weird, it’s like an antiquated liquor distribution or car dealership model. Nvidia is able to design their own card layouts, and they now even have their own cards manufactured and branded as ‘Nvidia’ rather than middlemen like EVGA. The datacenter cards no longer follow the AIB model.
Billy
Billy
3 years ago
I guess no one cares about the carbon footprint anymore.
Makes me wonder which industry offers more ROI if you could implement AI to manipulate:
Stock market or politics?
Elon already admitted that it’s manipulating political chats in Twitter. I’m guessing it’s already in all other comment sections. We’ll maybe not here yet.
The fact that fundamentals have taken a backseat compared to technical, I’m guessing it’s already been implemented in stocks.
Zardoz
Zardoz
3 years ago
Reply to  Billy
Not this tech, but similar. Our financial markets have been ruled by AI for over a decade.
Billy
Billy
3 years ago
Reply to  Zardoz
On one end they have algorithms controlling the trade based on AI predicting movements. One the other end they are manipulating us and our actions by imitating commenters in finance sections. A clear tale of this is when you make a comment pointing out good reasoning and within 10 minutes you get 5+ thumbs down. There is no reason why someone should give you thumbs down if you show intelligent thought. That is unless a program is trying to discredit you.
Zardoz
Zardoz
3 years ago
Reply to  Billy
“There is no reason why someone should give you thumbs down if you show intelligent thought.”
Have you met humans?
Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
3 years ago
Reply to  Billy
Have you never ever heard of “opposing thumbs?”

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