What is Stagflation?
Stagflation is recession coupled with inflation.
Great Depression era economist John Maynard Keynes thought the combination of recession and inflation was impossible.
That should have ended Keynesian nonsense right then and there. Unfortunately, it didn’t.
Explaining Keynesian
Keynes believes in government spending, stimulus, and other economic free money prime the pump nonsense.
Governments and academia latched on to free money and stimulus ideas. Thus, it’s no wonder Keynesian nonsense is the overwhelming consensus thinking.
GDPNow Forecast
The October 5 GDPNow forecast is for 1.3% growth. That’s low and at the stall rate, but seemingly not recession material.
Look closer. Real Final Sales are the true bottom line measure of GDP.
Inventory changes net to zero over time.
The latest GDPNow measure of real final sales is -1.0%. That is recessionary.
If these numbers stick, third-quarter GDP will only be positive based on an inventory build.
Case For Recession
- Tax hikes: Recessionary
- Tariffs (Biden is following Trump and threatens more): Recessionary
- Stock Market Bubbles: Inflationary While Expanding, Deflationary and Recessionary when collapsing.
- Attitudes
- Energy Policy: Mandating 80% clean energy by 2030: Stagflationary
- Biden’s $1.5 trillion to $3.5 Trillion “Build Back Better” Plan: Inflationary
- Continuing Supply Chain Woes: Stagflationary
- Wage Hike Escalations: Inflationary
Point-by-Point Discussion
Regarding point number 1, if any deal is signed, it will include at least some tax hikes.
Regarding point number 2, Biden to Continue Trump’s Chaotic Policy on China, Just More Politely.
Biden is threatening China with more tariffs, even though Trump showed how useless tariffs are. Worse yet, Biden is starting from a far worse inflationary setup than Trump.
Regarding points 3 and 4, Stock market speculation is rampant. People feel wealthy and spend. A sustained stock market decline would likely curtail car buying and people chasing houses. Attitudes matter.
Point 5 is the biggest killer: Energy prices are already soaring. Forcing businesses to move to 80% clean energy by 2030 is simply crazy.
Senator Manchin is worried about the inflationary impact of Build Back America. He is rightly worried. The question at hand is how much he gives in.
Regarding point 7, supply chain disruptions may have peaked but they have not gone away.
Regarding point 8, please note BofA Raises Minimum Wage to $21, Wage Push Inflation Will Kill Small Businesses
Three Measures of Inflation are All Running Hot
Note that Three Measures of Inflation are All Running Hot.
Finally, the Fed will start tapering, supposedly. Whether the Fed does or doesn’t will likely not matter.
If the Fed doesn’t taper will be because the economy is weak. If the Fed does taper, it could easily affect attitudes.
At best, the economy is slowing. Rate cuts? Nope, not possible unless the Fed goes negative.
Yet, recession seems to be on no one’s mind.
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Mish
If you can CHARGE more per UNIT, then you do not need to MAKE MORE. That covers the revenue shortfall and of course, prevents price deflation-the holy grail of economists. Plus, even here nobody is enforcing collusion laws, monopoly laws or fair competition laws to bring prices down.
Large conglomerates or government controlled cartels are managing supplies of chips and certain base products-US and Europe is hopeless in getting changes. Especially since Tariffs continue. Game over for US and the consumer. I suggest growing your victory garden, paying debt down and buying less
Bank of America analysts, who have
been accurately clairvoyent of late, predict that the third quarter slowdown
will be followed by a third quarter resurgence back to 6 percent. Their
concern is whether the supply side can handle the higher demand. https://business.bofa.com/en-us/content/market-strategies-insights/global-economy-outlook-and-forecast.html
On the other hand, Mark Hulbert, a
frequent contributor to “MarketWatch”, https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-consumers-are-gloomy-about-their-finances-and-that-means-a-recession-could-be-near-11632815496?mod=home-page,
feels that a recession could be near.
U.
Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey showed a remarkable drop of 13.4 percent
from July to August, followed by a couple of percent gain (preliminary) in
Sept. Such a drop has been generally accompanied by a recession.
Inflation
is a both a laggard and a stubborn influence. Dr. Richard Curtin,
the chief economist for the U Mich survey relates: “The reaction of
consumers to rising prices has been to postpone purchases, given their fears of
falling future living standards as well as the presumed transient nature of
inflation due to the pandemic. The partisan wrangling about debt ceilings and
infrastructure programs, along with rising market interest rates, will produce
greater negative spending forces, unless quickly reversed.” https://news.umich.edu/inflation-raises-uncertainty-about-future-living-standards/
Hope
springs eternal….