Things are basically back to normal in FL from what I have noticed, then again we stopped the generous unemployment benefits a while ago and we didn’t keep our population in a perpetual state of lockdown like some other states did.
whirlaway
2 years ago
Small business folks still delude themselves that the Republicans are on their side. They are not. Just like the labor class thinks the Democrats are on their side. They are not. Democrats over the past 30+ years have made more of Reagan’s anti-labor, anti-minority wet dreams come true than the Republicans have.
So, small businesses and working class folks! When are you going to join forces?
Divide and conquer works no matter what century you happen to inhabit.
Casual_Observer2020
2 years ago
Here is the link I used a few years ago to determine that there are way less job openings than the 11M number. Linkup is aggregator site that eliminates double postings. Their data says there around around 4M openings. This is probably a lot more accurate.
The LinkUp 10,000 is an analytic, published both daily and monthly, that captures the sum total of U.S. job openings from the 10,000 global employers in LinkUp’s job search engine with the most U.S. job openings. Representing the entire U.S. economy, the LinkUp 10,000 is a macro indicator designed to measure real-time changes in U.S. labor demand. And because job openings are highly correlated to job growth in future periods, the predictive attributes of the LinkUp 10,000 deliver valuable insights into the future direction of the U.S. labor market.
LinkUp is a leading job search engine empowering people with knowledge obtained from the largest, highest quality database of global job listings. Through our proprietary and sophisticated technology, we index millions of job listings every day, directly from employer websites. We leverage that unique, predictive dataset to power our candidate sourcing and job market data solutions, forever progressing toward our vision of delivering perfect job market information.
People also forget that many job postings are not real and are simply cya for HR depts when the manager already has his pick.
tbergerson
2 years ago
I should add, small businesses have already been killed by governors shutting them down during the pandemic. More will open. Some will shut because of the higher wages for workers required. And that is the case. $15 is effectively the new minimum wage. But government has tilted the playing field so far in favor of big business it hardly matters. Business creation was already way down BEFORE the pandemic. Now? Good luck.
tbergerson
2 years ago
And who wants to work for $10 an hour if unemployment pays nearly as much if not more.
Uh-huh. Thats what all those “economists” were crying about with the “huge” extra 300 a week pandemic relief too. But thtas been gone awhile now. And still the jobs are not being filled. Also, you only get unemployment for a relatively short period, and you had to have income before that to qualify.
No, there are other factors at play. Like the fact that our economy is mostly made up of useless service jobs now. These are not middle class jobs. At one time they WERE lower middle class jobs. You probably cant even afford rent and a smartphone now. So why bother?
Even Ken Griffin recently said that globalization has destroyed small town America.
I am sure people are wary about being around lots of other people too what with the killer virus out there.
Someone impersonated me and got away with it. The owner of my company got a letter from DOL stating I was collecting unemployment. He didn’t open it for weeks, so the guy got several payments. Didn’t cost me a dime, but the company had to pay. From talking to DOL in my state, fraud is rampant. There is no security other than mailing a letter.
If you were fired, you can collect immediately if it was not for cause. You can collect after 30 days if it was for cause, unless it was for gross misconduct, i.e. theft, which will bar you from collecting against that specific employer permanently, but not from collecting against some other employer. If you left voluntarily, you have to wait 30 days to collect. You also have to be “actively looking for work”, meaning submitting occasional applications. This is not new, but over the years, if you offer a person a job, they will sometimes request their application back, and “un-apply”.
In this environment, as Ahab mentions, the rules are being bent. I doubt anyone is checking to see if a person is applying.
Cocoa
2 years ago
So, labor prices can’t inflate like products? The Swiss have a 36 dollar an hour minimum and people will work for it. If Covid taught us anything it’s -Don’t work for peanuts
-don’t accumulate debt
-You can live on a lot less that you think if you have no debt service
If you want to stick it to the “man” then don’t borrow or lend
Captain Ahab
2 years ago
There is probably no better overall gauge of business cycle stages than employment. When companies cannot fill open positions, and wages increase because demand for labor exceeds the supply, it is very likely we are at, or very near the peak of the cycle. That said, IMHO, post-Covid pent-up demand for goods and services is the primary factor underlying current transportation problems, and the high demand for labor. Add in labor supply influencing factors such as vax-resistance, unemployment insurance, Covid weariness etc., and it is highly likely that the current economic surge (real economic growth exceeds population growth) will be transitory.
My question is what happens following this peak–there are any number of scenarios from pessimistic to optimistic. At best, is a gradual slowdown in the global economy. At worst, the vast debt (public and private) sustained by low interest rates and central bank policies, will become unsubstainable. However, the worst case is exacerbated by a) derivatives in the quadrillions b) vastly overpriced stocks/bonds (thank you Fed), c) more uninformed investors than ever, d) algorithm trading etc. Note, I don’t need a Black-Swan event to pop this bubble; just a growing realization that things are slowing down.
At present, markets appear to be driven by FOMO. However, enough of a decline will tip the balance. The mass-market race for the exits/safety will end in a rout–prices will fall so precipitously even hedging strategies will do little to limit the losses. FYI, I exited about six-nine months early for the last recession (based on employment projections). This time around, my portfolio strategy is based on FONGO: fear of not getting out (in time), or fear of no good options.
I have experienced my best career moves when the labor “shortages” occurred. I accepted offers with solid employers who were not in trendy industries. After the labor bubble popped, I still had a job.
“current transportation problems” is something I’m pondering as well. Working in supply chain, currently there is an abnormal deficiency in CDL drivers. Wasn’t there before COVID, won’t be there after this temporary surge in demand. So what is expected? As a previous operations manager, I was never permitted to staff but minimally, with overtime as an option if needed. How do we currently expect people to temporarily staff CDL drivers (ie go down that career path) when it too is temporary?
Not seeing the end as it approaches is what causes financial disaster. Buying near the bottom and selling near the top of a cycle creates fortunes. As I said, I exited the stock market six-nine months early for the last recession. That said, I retired at age 59. My sense is the next downturn will be devastating–fear of no good options.
Here’s an example, based on a discussion from earlier today.
Outboard motors are largely built in China. Few outboards were made/shipped during Covid. Note that most production is based on just-in-time inventory/production models. People had more leisure time during the shutdown, so demand stayed high. Outboards were quickly sold out, and went to back order.
A year later… we now have current demand (new plus replacement outboards) plus pent-up demand, so the supply must double (approx). Apply that to every product, and you have a massive problem of manufacturing and transportation. However, it is transitory. As soon as the pent-up demand is met, there must be a 50% cut in production. This will greatly exacerbate the next economic downturn.
Doug78
2 years ago
We went through many years of wage growth so weak that it didn’t
keep up with inflation and many just took it for granted that that was going to
last forever. Previous president and a presidential candidate even said
“get used to it”. Before covid we were at close to full employment
yet wage growth was still sluggish because of inertia and habit. Covid broke
that torpor. Suddenly for medical reasons many didn’t have to work but more
importantly those who were able to work found that for the first time in their
memory their labor gave them bargaining power. The stimulus enhanced that
power. Enough people decided to retire or stay home with the kids or whatever
that employers found themselves also for the first time in memory having to go
through extraordinary measures to get people to work for them and there is not
one thing they can do about it except throw the economy into a deep recession.
However doing that is fraught with danger in this climate. They will just have
to suck it up and pay up and wait for things to settle down with wages at a
new, higher equilibrium.
Those years of low/no wage growth are the result of global competition and a large number of jobs with limited value added. The high-value added jobs did very nicely with wage growth.
Capital was able to capture all the increases in productivity over labor. The cycle has probably turned since offshoreing is not very popular in boardrooms these days because it is much more rosky to the company than before.
LawrenceBird
2 years ago
1- I know first hand that the problem with most restaurants in my area (a touristy one) is a lack of kitchen staff, not wait staff.
2- covid has had a material change on what people at the lower end of the income scale are willing to do and at what price.
3- housing costs also effect the availability of low(er) wage employees. There is only so far one can reasonably travel for $10 or even $15/hr.
4- perhaps if we had not make the stock market and profits of large corporations (and their upper management) the sole focus of economic policy the past thirty years the current system would not be so out of whack.
Eddie_T
2 years ago
Welcome to my world. I can’t compete with any corporation, even though I do pay $15 to start and I have several key employees making $20 plus. I now pay half the premium on decent insurance (but the employees mostly can’t afford their half). I fund a simple IRA…but that’s as good as it will ever get…..so we struggle to find people.
Hygienists are a different issue. They’re as rare as unicorns these days, and I’ve paid my dental hygienists over $100K a year for the last 20 years. They do earn it, by working on commission.
My favorite waiters are knocking back $300 a night in tips now. Every restaurant I frequent is now absolutely operating at capacity, with reduced staff. I was turned away at my favorite prime rib joint on Friday and Saturday, because we were a large party, and we went Monday night and 3 of us waited 40 minutes for a table…. on Monday!!!!
Well, one issue is that many of the hygienists who WERE working pre-COVID had never realized they were working in one of the most dangerous jobs there is…as far as being exposed to a virus like COVID. A fair number just quit when we locked down, and never returned.
The hygiene schools are pretty full…and it’s suddenly much harder to get in hygiene school…because there are lots of applicants…..it is to some degree a gate-kept job. You have to have some college, a couple of years of training beyond that, and pass a State Board exam.
Now you have to have a perfect GPA and lots of experience working in dentistry as an assistant to have much of a chance to be accepted.
No offense Eddie but I refuse to see a hygienist when my dental plan pays to see a dentist. This like going to see a PA or Nurse practitioner when your paying to see a doctor. I love my dentist and I’m glad she has a practice where she deals with all patients directly on every visit. I tried switching to a practice closer to home but they missed so many things my regular dentist caught.
It depends on the practice, but most dentists really can’t afford to clean teeth for a living at UCR insurance fees. “Carriage trade” concierge practices that are all cash can do it any way they want that works for the doctor. They set their own fees. These days, most of my fees are capped by the insurance companies, so even if I raise fees, I won’t get paid more. I also treat medicaid kids, which pays about 50 cents on the dollar compared to private pay.
I have over 9000 thousand active patients (and 30,000 more charts in storage) Sometimes people come back years after being dead-filed…..
I couldn’t come close to taking care of them all without a well-trained staff. I’d have two hygienists if I had more clinic space. I see every hygiene patient personally every six months, so it is not an either/or…..and in Texas and most other states, hygienists are only licensed to clean teeth and perform a few other limited services.
My patients get far better care than they would if had to clean all their teeth, and my hygienists are trained and encouraged to point out anything they think I might need to give a second look.
I do real dentistry……root canals and crowns and wisdom teeth extractions and implants and dentures and full-mouth pedi restoration cases in the OR under general….and I also do orthodontics. That is also largely delegated work…..but delegated to a very highly trained assistant with decades of experience. I do see every patient in braces at every office visit and give directions.
What made me successful is that I have a high volume, high quality practice that keeps almost all procedures in-house. I only refer treatment I don’t want to do…..there is very little that I can’t do. Obviously I do what works for me, taking care of working class people…it requires me to do a lot more work to earn the same money as someone like your doctor…no slight to her intended either. I’m sure she’s a great dentist and has a successful practice.
She has a small practice and declines to see everyone that wants to see her. Overhead is also way smaller. She cant scale but she did this to control outcomes better. The truth about teeth is cleaning can be done at home these days. Preventative dentistry is way cheaper than letting problems fester. I had my fair share of teeth problems until I realized that twice a year cleanings and brushing and flossing arent enough. The food industry has laced everything with bad stuff that eats away at teeth more quickly. I’ve had more preventative work done in the last 10 years and wish I hadn’t been passed off to cleanings and only once every 2 year xrays. Technology has improved the ability to catch stuff sooner but I dont think hygienists are trained well enough to know what they are seeing. The level of training between a dentist and a hygienist is drastically different.
Interesting… There was another post about how raises to the “minimum wage paid” cascades to higher expectations throughout the company. For example, BofA took out, what, $4 billion in loss reserves to avoid showing stupid profits during the pandemic, and cut nearly all bonus pay due to a “tough year”. Since then, they boosted pay for the low tiers like 50% (gladly taking press praise), released $2 billion in reserves after bonuses for the common employee were issued for executive compensation calculations, and pushed for $1 billion in social justice programs while hiking fees… Not a whole lot of happy campers there
While Bank of America talks up wage gains … they, uh, fail to mention reduction in force.
CEO Moynihan on Q2:
“So there’s basically buildings and how many do you need and how many people — that’s driven by how many
people and how much you pay our teammates who are talented to drive the business, that’s driven by how
many people. And we just had a — we have been working our way down in headcount, and it then froze
because of all the work we had to do around the pandemic-related programs. But now it’s dropped by 1% in
the quarter, and that’s where it pays back”
Banks need a lot less branches in this environment. I see a lot of empty spaces for rent that used to be banks.
Karlmarx
2 years ago
The elimination of small business is one of the main goals of progressiviism. The state and its academic and media apologists are so skilled at generating propaganda in support of their schemes that Americans are mostly unaware of the dire threat they pose for the future of freedom. See Italian Corporatism as their model for the economy.
Democrats want to eliminate competition as a way to control the economy. Most large businesses and established small/moderate businesses are happy to comply with Democrat demands. Loss of tax competition means that Democrats can take a much larger share of profits without fearing capital flight.
Competition smacks of meritocracy, which has been declared raciss
Dean_70
2 years ago
I find it humorous that each generation believes they work harder and more responsible than the generations that follow. Truth be told, generations are simply products of their environment. Boomers were once ridiculed as lazy and unappreciative by their predecessors.
People will take advantage of the system that was created before they arrived. That is human nature. If boomers want to blame someone for poor work ethic then they have to look in the mirror because they created that environment.
Of course this is speaking in generalities as the masses are simply sheep.
Yes, boomers were bad employees back in the 60’s and 70’s. All generations go through that. Once they get married, and have kids, though, they suddenly realize that they can’t afford to be fired, and they become better employees. The same should happen to the younger generations, if they form families.
conservativeprof
2 years ago
Major labor unrest coming. The entry level wage push will lead to pushes for lightly skilled work, moderately skilled work, … Janitors at the Denver airport had a wildcat strike last week. Other airport workers now threaten a strike. You have not seen anything yet on labor unrest. Health care is ripe for labor unrest with an army of low paid workers (CNA, pharmacy techs, checkin workers, …). Inflation especially with higher housing costs will cause a spiral of wage price demands. The Democrat spending plans are throwing fuel on the inflation fire. Work at the bottom level does not pay. Better to have Democrats take care of your needs.
Historically, crashes have burst bubbles in housing, employment, and living standards. However, we have almost unlimited government spending now. A crash will lead to even more government spending. Consumption and production have become delinked. A crash will not abate demand for housing, health care, food,… Consumption is now an entitlement, but producers cannot keep up. It will take a major crash to reduce demand in the face of increased government spending. I still see a prospect of spiraling inflation as happens in developing countries.
Sooner or later we are going to see someone advocate for ‘Wage and Price Control’ again.
Even though it didn’t work, there has been enough time passed that most will have forgotten that fact.
Tony Bennett
2 years ago
“I suspect small family owned businesses are getting killed by spiraling wages hikes and supply chain disruptions.”
…
Absolutely.
As they fail that will drag down demand – not only from employees being ex-employees, but many of these small businesses purchase goods / services from the Big Boyz … and that is supposed to lead to HIGHER wages? Near term higher labor costs will provide added impetus for corporations to automate / outsource to protect bottom line.
The rug already being pulled … GDPNow (Q3) tanking.
All the same anecdotes for me too, the Red Robin closed it’s dining room and is now carry out and delivery only. No workers. Etc, etc, etc. Amazon went to $18/hr recently, maybe you missed that.
So where did the workers go? At the peak it was about 15M unemployed, almost all at the lower end of the wage scale (ie, Red Robin staff) and roughly half of the Uber/gig worker type. Benefits are over now and in many states have been for some time.
Maybe they work for Amazon for $18/hr now instead of Red Robin for $10 or $12. Benefits aren’t completely over, the biden child tax credit checks are still coming and could easily be $1000/month. Add in all the other benefits like welfare checks, housing assistance, food stamps, free cell phones, etc and you could be sitting at home taking in $40-60k per year.
So then you are saying the system works – workers have abandoned low paying jobs for higher paying jobs.
Bungalow Bill
2 years ago
Isn’t Bank of America one of the most corrupt banking institutions in this country–who have some of the highest fees (fines) for their clients who trust THEIR money with this bank?
I recall a great article in Rolling Stone after the housing crisis…
“most corrupt”, not likely, if only because BofA aquired MBNA, Countrywide, and Merrill (among others) where most of the problems were to begin with. Similarly, PNC were charged with similar problems including redlining not for what they had done, but what National City Bank was guilty of prior to the acquisition.
It’s classic. A company with a bad reputaion always has a problem hiring good people. They are the last on the list when looking for a job and consequently have to pay up. Usually they are the ones who also fire people easily as well. What goes around comes around.
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So, small businesses and working class folks! When are you going to join forces?
-Don’t work for peanuts
We went through many years of wage growth so weak that it didn’t
keep up with inflation and many just took it for granted that that was going to
last forever. Previous president and a presidential candidate even said
“get used to it”. Before covid we were at close to full employment
yet wage growth was still sluggish because of inertia and habit. Covid broke
that torpor. Suddenly for medical reasons many didn’t have to work but more
importantly those who were able to work found that for the first time in their
memory their labor gave them bargaining power. The stimulus enhanced that
power. Enough people decided to retire or stay home with the kids or whatever
that employers found themselves also for the first time in memory having to go
through extraordinary measures to get people to work for them and there is not
one thing they can do about it except throw the economy into a deep recession.
However doing that is fraught with danger in this climate. They will just have
to suck it up and pay up and wait for things to settle down with wages at a
new, higher equilibrium.
No offense Eddie but I refuse to see a hygienist when my dental plan pays to see a dentist. This like going to see a PA or Nurse practitioner when your paying to see a doctor. I love my dentist and I’m glad she has a practice where she deals with all patients directly on every visit. I tried switching to a practice closer to home but they missed so many things my regular dentist caught.
people and how much you pay our teammates who are talented to drive the business, that’s driven by how
many people. And we just had a — we have been working our way down in headcount, and it then froze
because of all the work we had to do around the pandemic-related programs. But now it’s dropped by 1% in
the quarter, and that’s where it pays back”
The elimination of small business is one of the main goals of progressiviism. The state and its academic and media apologists are so skilled at generating propaganda in support of their schemes that Americans are mostly unaware of the dire threat they pose for the future of freedom. See Italian Corporatism as their model for the economy.
link to rollingstone.com