Sticker Shock: How Much Will an iPhone Cost with Trump’s Tariffs?

If consumers would pay $3,500 for an iPhone, we could bring production to the US.

The iPhone with and Without Tariffs

The Wall Street Journal comments Here’s the iPhone. Here’s the iPhone With Tariffs.

Apple’s (AAPL) big moneymaker is a global patchwork. It has components sourced from all over the world, brought together primarily in China, where electronics manufacturing has been perfected over a generation.

Moving just the assembly process to the U.S.? Not cheap and definitely not easy.
Take a look at this iPhone 16 Pro. Your cost, for the 256GB version, is $1,100. The cost of all the hardware inside—aka the bill of materials—was about $550 to Apple when the phone was introduced, says Wayne Lam, research analyst at TechInsights, which breaks down major products. Throw in assembly and testing and Apple’s cost rises to around $580. Even when you account for Apple’s advertising budget and all the included services—iMessage, iCloud, etc.—there’s still a healthy profit margin.

Now factor in the newly announced tariff for goods from China, which currently totals 54%. The cost rises to around $850. That profit margin would shrink dramatically if Apple didn’t up the price. And you don’t become a trillion-dollar gadget company by charging for things at cost.

An Apple spokeswoman declined to comment on the company’s pricing plans or manufacturing details.

So what about that American-made iPhone? Wouldn’t it at least save on tariffs? Apple would still pay levies on the device’s many imported parts. Plus, a manufacturing move to the U.S. would be “a massive, mammoth undertaking” that would take years, says Barton Crockett, senior research analyst at brokerage firm Rosenblatt Securities.

And the phone itself would likely cost more—a lot more. The assembly ecosystem in China is labor intensive and wouldn’t make economic sense in the U.S., Crockett explains. “It’s not clear you can make a competitively priced smartphone here.”

Apple’s Costs

The above article looked at Apple’s costs which are about to surge.

Trump has threatened an additional 50 percent tariff, effective tomorrow, because China retaliated.

Apple’s Strategy

To avoid China tariffs, Apple Plans to Source More iPhones From India

Trump’s new tariff package raises levies on Chinese goods to at least 54% while imposing a 26% rate on Indian goods. On Monday, Trump threatened to add to China tariffs if the country doesn’t remove the retaliatory duties they announced after U.S. tariff plans were revealed on April 2.

The iPhone is Apple’s signature product and makes up about 50% of its revenue. The company’s heavy reliance on China for manufacturing has spooked investors concerned about its exposure to tariffs, leading to a 19% decline in its shares, their worst three-day performance in nearly 25 years.

The tariff on Chinese goods could add about $300 to the current $550 hardware cost to Apple of an iPhone 16 Pro that currently retails for $1,100, according to TechInsights. Apple could limit the damage by importing phones from India where the tariff is about half as high.

While Trump has called for a manufacturing renaissance in the U.S., analysts and suppliers said moving iPhone production to Apple’s home country was a nonstarter because the cost would be far beyond the cost of paying the tariff. 

“If consumers want a $3,500 iPhone we should make them in New Jersey or Texas or another state,” research firm Wedbush said in a recent note.

iPhone Tariff Q&A

Q: Dear president Trump, would a $3,500 iPhone be considered winning?
A: The question is moot because Apple is not going to bring the labor-intensive pieces to the US.

Q: So who will pay the tariffs?
A: Whatever Apple doesn’t eat, US consumers will pay the rest

Q: What tariff rate is that?
A: It will take a while to move labor intensive pieces from China to India. So Apple’s costs will be a blend of tariffs on China and India.

Q: How long will India’s tariff rate stay at 26 percent?
A: Good question. But who knows what Trump will do after he pisses and moans about moving operations to India.

Related Posts

April 7, 2025: What Happens if All Trade With China Comes to a Screeching Halt?

This is no longer a highly unlikely scenario after Trump threatens another 50 Percent Tariff on China.

China Retaliates Against Trump Tariffs

An April 4, 2025, I commented China Strikes Back With 34 Percent Tariffs, Stocks Plunge Second Day

China restricts 7 more rare earths, something I have warned about many times.

Whereas Trump may already be past the point China couldn’t care less what Trump does, the reverse is not true.

China can easily block rare earth exports to the world. If that happens, Trump will panic.

Clearly, “Trade wars are good and easy to win.”

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Thanks for Tuning In!

Mish

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Houseplant
Houseplant
8 months ago

I’m pretty skeptical about the labor claims. Electronics are the most automated form of manufacturing that exists or probably ever well. Ever heard of pick and place machines? Look it up on youtube.

There’s a little secret that isn’t talked about much in economics — elasticity. I don’t want to spill the beans but basically since China has super cheap labor, they send workers off on all sorts of folly. Say a board has problems…you can have a bunch of techs take all the good parts off the board, clean them up, test, then try to stick them back on. If manufacturing were done in the US, we’d just scrap most of the parts and be done with it — labor costs just went *way* down.

realityczech
realityczech
8 months ago

Serious question…. Did anyone double check Wedbush’s math? That $3500 makes no sense.

OPmoney
OPmoney
8 months ago

Washing Machine post tariff prices (LOL using Apple technology or not) went up very little 2% to 5%.

SEE: The Success of the 2018 Washing Machine Tariffs – Jeff Ferry

  • 01/16/2024

Consumer Prices
The greatest myth about tariffs is that they lead directly to a one-for-one increase in consumer prices of the tariffed goods. The price effect of tariffs depends on the competitive dynamics of the industry that is tariffed, the weight of the level of imports in domestic consumption, and other variables. The U.S. International Trade Commission found in a detailed study published last year that across a range of industries, the various tariffs imposed by the Trump administration led to price increases in the domestic market for the tariffed goods worth between 10% and 20% of the headline rate of tariff. In other words, a 25% tariff would lead to U.S. price increases in the tariffed sector of between 2.5% to 5%.
Key Points

  • The 2018-2023 washing machine tariffs led to a larger, more competitive U.S.-based residential washer industry, including the creation of over 2,000 new jobs at two Korean-owned companies which opened U.S. manufacturing facilities in the southern U.S.
  • Washing machine prices are now below pre-tariff levels, and prices have risen less than consumer inflation, demonstrating that after a six-month flurry, tariffs had little to no effect on washing machine prices.
  • The success of the washing machine tariffs shows that “tariff-jumping investment,” i.e. inducing domestic industry growth via tariffs is a viable strategy for the U.S. in industries that have suffered decline.
Flingel BUnt
Flingel BUnt
8 months ago

So, now we’ve ripped Trump’s MAGA strategies apart, whether eliminating DEI, stopping illegal immigration, imposing tariffs, reducing government waste, fraud and abuse…etc etc; where are all the brilliant ideas to turn the US around and make it globally competitive?

Lefteris
Lefteris
8 months ago
Reply to  Flingel BUnt

Maybe we should keep paying the Europeans to be our friends. Americans have gotten used to SIMPing.

Kevin Sears
Kevin Sears
8 months ago

Apple revenue in China has been declining. The CCP rules all and believes strongly in import substitution policies. Rare earth metals are generally not rare. China cornered the market through destructive low cost mining and flooding the market to drive down prices. In the end, just another commodity which can be bought and resold to anyone.

JayW
JayW
8 months ago
Reply to  Kevin Sears

Exactly! One of the most profitable companies on the planet has seen their market share in China reduced to 15%. Like Ford & GM, it won’t be long before it’s time for them to just get out of the market all together. Hopefully, Trump’s tariff war will hasten this happening. It’s inevitable anyway. People in China are well on their way to completely eliminating consumer face products made by US companies in China.

Pokercat
Pokercat
8 months ago

34% tariff, stop sales of rare minerals China version of FAFO, you asked for it bitches.

Kevin Sears
Kevin Sears
8 months ago
Reply to  Pokercat

Really. Not much of a problem. Commodities can be resold innumerable time. Russia is still selling oil to other countries.

David Heartlandd
David Heartlandd
8 months ago

I reviewed, in my mind this morning, how much my very 1st Motorcycle Costed me in America, 1970: A Honda 305 Scrambler was only $325, all in. That slightly more than just the TARIFF’s now.

Inflation is killing us!

TexasTim65
TexasTim65
8 months ago

Pretty sure that Scrambler doesn’t meet any of today’s regulations for new bikes.

Those are also costing us big time especially in the car world with mandatory safety features like backup cameras etc that we don’t actually need.

Flingel Bunt
Flingel Bunt
8 months ago
Reply to  TexasTim65

When you’re too fat to actually look in the rear mirror, or turn around/look over your shoulder, backup cameras are an essential need.

PapaDave
PapaDave
8 months ago

A couple of thoughts on Trump’s tariff policies.

Let’s assume that Trump manages to eliminate ALL tariffs worldwide, including those that the US charges. What will be the result in a zero-tariff world?

1. No tariff revenue for the US to reduce our deficit and debt, eliminate income taxes, and make us all rich.

2. Free and open markets worldwide, where the winners are those with competitive advantages.

3. Who has these “competitive advantages”? China, India, Vietnam, Indonesia, Mexico, Canada, and others.

4. Imagine a flood of inexpensive Chinese vehicles coming to America and wiping out the North American auto industry. Then watch this spread to almost all US manufacturing.

Be careful what you wish for.

David Heartlandd
David Heartlandd
8 months ago
Reply to  PapaDave

You just made me wish for Cheap Chinese Vehicles. Let’s recall that Japanese imports, such as the Honda Motorcycle, not only allowed Millions of young people to afford a Bike, but they also did not leak oil like our Vaunted English Bikes, such as the Norton.

JayW
JayW
8 months ago
Reply to  PapaDave

Does anyone actually believe that we’re going to get to zero tariffs with China while Trump is in office or anytime thereafter? I would suspect that even if the Chinese come to the table in a meaningful way that Trump will expect at least a permanent 10% tariff. China is already letting its Renminbi drop outside of its usual currency manipulation range.
.
#1 – Is nothing more than Trump bluster and you know this. Two months ago you kept yammering about when are the on / off again tariffs going to arrive. Now, they’re here and you’re still parroting the same old talking point.

#2 – Again, the end game isn’t going to result in zero tariffs world-wide. If you think that’s going to happen, then good luck with that near zero probability.

#3 – Yes, and the reality is that all of this is about accomplishing four things: weakening China, stopping Chinese-based fentanyl from continuing to flood into the US, moving strategically important manufacturing back to the US & raising revenue. Accomplishing those ends has nothing to do with parsing who has comparative advantage.

#4 – Again at least while Trump is in office, Chinese made vehicles / EVs will not be sold in the US. Don’t hold your breath for this one, PapaD.

Almost every other country is simply caught up as a 2nd-tier bystander with regards to achieving these goals.

JayW
JayW
8 months ago
Reply to  Mike Shedlock

Yes, and I would be quite happy if this were to happen. I might even go out and dance in the streets. Again, weakening China is one of the main goals with Trump’s policies. It’s called currency manipulation for a reason, Mish.

While I’m sure our reserve status affords us a certain level of “manipulation”, there’s a massive difference between what we do & they do with their balance being far worse. And don’t get me started with how the CCP subsidizes all sorts of manufacturing. Again, we do this as well, but not nearly to the extent they do. And a lot of their interventions are in the shadows not seen by the public or media.

pete3397
pete3397
8 months ago
Reply to  PapaDave

Tariffs are not going to generate enough income even at Trump’s wildly inconsistent rates to fund the government while removing or reducing income taxes. So, why not reduce tariffs to close to zero instead?

And are you seriously going to argue that the U.S. has no competitive advantages, whatsoever? You’ve listed countries that are labor intensive or resource intensive with China just now perhaps transitioning to a more capital intensive economic structure. But to argue that the U.S. is devoid of competitive advantages in a host of industrial and economic sectors is to simply deny reality. It’s just anti-American defeatism masquerading as economic policy.

Further, I can imagine a flood of inexpensive Chinese vehicles coming the America. In fact, I’ve seen it. First, Japan, where we had to engage in trade restrictions to save a U.S. auto industry that was inefficient and turned out pieces of automotive junk for years until faced with actual competition on both price and quality. We saw it repeated with Korean automobiles. It won’t be any different for the Chinese and the biggest obstacle the Chinese will face is the (perceived and/or real) quality deficit between their vehicles and those produced elsewhere. Maybe lower prices will be attractive to many American consumers, but with domestic producers (traditional U.S.- owned, Japanese-owned, Korean-owned, or European-owned) turning out cars that are generally well north of $30K they’re pricing themselves out of a large segment of the market. If the Chinese can sell decent – just decent, mind you – cars at a significantly lower cost then that would actually be a good thing for many lower income Americans or those just starting out who don’t want to devote >15% of their income to buy an American-made car or be forced to make due with an older, used model or the hell of public transport.

Flingel Bunt
Flingel Bunt
8 months ago
Reply to  PapaDave

This is what happens when:
1) a country becomes self-centered, lazy, and dependent on government.
2) the government is not held accountable for negative outcomes it caused
3) the people are unable to think critically/and for themselves
4) …..

JayW
JayW
8 months ago
Reply to  Flingel Bunt

I think your points are a bit exaggerated, but I can’t say that I disagree with them. Common ground for sure.

limey
limey
8 months ago
Reply to  Flingel Bunt

Can’t think where the hell that would be………….hhhhhmmmmmmmmm.

Joe Penny
Joe Penny
8 months ago

Yeah, well when robots are building the phone is won’t be $3500.

If you have children, have them pursue anything “robot” — tech, repair, systems commissioning, production, software, etc etc — and they’ll be employed for life.

DennisAOK
DennisAOK
8 months ago
Reply to  Joe Penny

That will take years.

David Heartlandd
David Heartlandd
8 months ago
Reply to  Joe Penny

Let’s get rid of Human Laborers, too, while we are at it. Wishing for Robotics means that “they” will eventually turn on us. It is inevitable. Cops today are nearly Robotic in how they handle a speeder: “Out of the Car. OK: FACE DOWN ON THE PAVEMENT. I SAID FACE DOWN!”

limey
limey
8 months ago

Well next time your’e stopped, be polite, don’t say ‘I’ll have your job for this or I know your chief. And turn the rap off the car stereo. Try being compliant.

bmcc
bmcc
8 months ago

back in the 70s through early 90s, i’d see so many illegal chinese sweat shops in nyc chinatowns in manhattan and brooklyn……….in the summer when  living on waterfront in oakland CA, a few years ago,
 surrounded by tons of chinese produce, and other products, trading companies with huge warehouses, I’d peak in or go in sometimes to see the hundreds of women men and kids working their tails off, for sure under the table 24/7.  Another eye opener.  There was also a huge schnitzer steel recycling yard where the containers that had been unloaded from Asia, that had been delivered by 18 wheelers to amerika would come back to port of oakland to be chopped up and recycled in scrap and emptied into converted oil tanker ships by gigantic cranes to be sent back to Asia so the asians would manufacture containers and fill them with stuff that we all buy and enjoy.  That was a PHD in global trading economics.  No schooling required.  Just eyes to view and digest properly.   PRO TIP.  Our kids ain’t gonna be working in sweat shops like our great great grandparents perhaps had to do somewhere in europe or amerika in the 1800s

RandomMike
RandomMike
8 months ago

Workers making the phone in the US would have a living wage,

Anthony
Anthony
8 months ago
Reply to  RandomMike

no, they wouldn’t because no one would buy the phones so there’d be no jobs.

i’m all for living wages. Europe accomplishes this with common sense taxation, and in this country that’s viewed as communism, which is ironic given that what Trump is doing now is more communist than anything the northern euros have done

Patrick
Patrick
8 months ago

Illegal immigrants get the choice, deportation to crummy place of origin, or to new Apple Giga factories in the desert. Not slavery but indentured servitude. After a contract period, they could choose to stay or go, but would be eligible for legal domicile like a green card. Indentured servitude bad? The Irish were brought over in droves as indentured servants. Better than using the slave labor arb in China no?
Speaking of the Giga concept, how long did Tesla take to set those up? Get out of the box Mish.

Mark Tichenor
Mark Tichenor
8 months ago

This comment won’t satisfy. Too complicated to detail here. I’d rather pay 3K+ for an Iphone or have NO Iphone at all if it meant a more stable America in all the ways we could discuss.

I was raised without Iphones, even for a while without TV, or so many other (so called) essential conveniences. Confidence in one’s ability to have a job that approximated what was needed to house, feed and clothe and save for a rainy day brought much more happiness and correlated far less frustration and, I think, more love amongst us all – than today.

Keep your Iphone. I’ll take my happiness in finding meaning to life.

bmcc
bmcc
8 months ago
Reply to  Mark Tichenor

posting comments in the intertubes, invented at university and DARPA, IS THE MEANING OF LIFE. maybe mish is your guru. please LOL. just good fun.

Mark Tichenor
Mark Tichenor
8 months ago
Reply to  bmcc

Recommend you read Viktor Frankel “The Unconscious God”. Very short but insightful psychology. Viktor is the creator of “Logo Therapy”. Humor well taken 🙂

Anon1970
Anon1970
8 months ago
Reply to  Mark Tichenor

Paying 3K+ for an i-phone will not fix our crime ridden ghettos.

Mark Tichenor
Mark Tichenor
8 months ago
Reply to  Anon1970

Entirely different issue. Recommend reading Charles Murray’s. “Facing Reality”: Two Truths About Race In America”

MPO45v2
MPO45v2
8 months ago

Reading some of the comments here is ridiculously funny, “just buy a used Android”…lol. Is that what MAGA is now, a hand-me-down used goods “prosperity” country? What’s next, “Just buy a used truck, no one wants an $140k range rover…. Just buy used clothes, new clothes too flashy and expensive for you city slickers…”

Is this what the golden age is supposed to be, shopping at thrift stores because we don’t want Chinese making our goods? The “golden age” where quality of life goes down. Is this the best Trump and the GOP can do? Lol! What a joke.

And all the idiots demanding manufacturing be brought back, who is going to be working in these manufacturing plants with 4.5% unemployment? I guess you’ll have to kill social security to get boomers back into grinding their remaining years away. Oh wait, it’s robots, well if robots are going to save us why don’t we have them now? Why wait?

Just another reason to go where you are treated best and live like a king elsewhere.

JayW
JayW
8 months ago
Reply to  MPO45v2

If you do live in the US, the please take your own advice.

FYI – buying used stuff during a trade war makes sense, no?

FYI – these tariffs aren’t going to be in place, for example, with MX & CA forever. At some point, someone is going to blink although it’s not likely to be Trump. What will result is a new trade deal for the US that’s better than USMCA. And don’t give me that Trump brokered USMCA crap.

He signed USMCA well before 10M+ illegals invaded the US through MX & CA & before more than half million fentanyl deaths. Only an idiot would not want USMCA reset as a means to get MX & CA to do something meaningful about illegals & drugs.

Where I come from, that’s called doing nothing / status quo.

MPO45v2
MPO45v2
8 months ago
Reply to  JayW

Only an idiot would not want USMCA reset as a means to get MX & CA to do something meaningful about illegals & drugs.”

And what do you think has been done? Run it real slow for me.

Did Trump secure the border or not right now? If the answer is yes then is there still a fentanyl crisis? If the answer to that is yes then USMCA had nothing to do with that. If the answer is no then USMCA had nothing to do with that. From what I hear, trump is drawing up plans to attack the cartels but why do that if his trade deals are stopping the flow of drugs?

Endless contradictions and idiots defending the illogical. Who’s the real idiot?

At the rate things are going, Trump will be impeached in two years when dems take Congress but if that fails, he’ll be gone in 2 after that then what? It’s deja vu all over again.

CzarChasm Reigns
CzarChasm Reigns
8 months ago
Reply to  MPO45v2

Impeachment is the only option: you can’t fix stupid.

JayW
JayW
8 months ago
Reply to  MPO45v2

As for fentanyl, Trump will expect the MX government to go after the cartels in a meaningful way. That’s what the tariffs are for and nixing the USMCA. No fentanyl smuggling isn’t going to be squashed, unless MX takes bold action against the cartels. Fortunately, though, with near zero illegal immigration, the flood of fentanyl, for now at least, has been pushed back to some extent. Time will tell whether or not Trump takes military action, and if he does, it’s certainly going to be a post 2026 elections event. That’s the one thing he’s got to be very cautious about.

The bottom line is this:

TRUMP IS TAKING A VERY DIFFERENT PATH & HE’S DOING EXACTLY WHAT HE SAID HE WAS GOING TO DO & WAS ELECTED TO DO.

Time will tell as to whether or not this very different path achieves anything meaningful, and I fully understand that “IF” things turn bad that the GOP will lose Congress in 2026 & the WH in ’28. For me, the next big thing I’m looking forward to is for Musk to leave DOGE in May. I’ve never been a Musk fan. One can say he’s Trump’s long-lost, narcissist, petty, obnoxious brother. And yes, I would assign all of those adjectives to Trump at different points over the last 10 years.

Just let us know when you’re vominosing outta here.

Orak
Orak
8 months ago

Common Mish – do you really believe this BS? $3500 for iPhone if the manufacturing is brought back in US – that’s the biggest joke I’ve heard in a while 🙂 And on the top of everything we are seeing already that half the world wants to negotiate with Trump, so maybe the strategy is working 🙂

EADOman
EADOman
8 months ago
Reply to  Orak

He provides statistics and pricing analysis. You provide yours.

Orak
Orak
8 months ago
Reply to  EADOman

Apple’s profit margins for iPhone went from 33% in 2022 to 43% last year. The majority of the iPhone assembly is automated. The BOM is $500+ and even with 100% tariffs it will be $1000 (and most of the chips are not from China and won’t have 100% tariffs). The actual labor to assemble the phone is around $15 in China. So where did you say the numbers are that support $3100 selling price for iPhone?

Last edited 8 months ago by Orak
Victoria "the Hutt" Nuland
Victoria “the Hutt” Nuland
8 months ago

A lot of people will just fly overseas to get their items and bring them back as used possessions. That’s what I’m having to do with a small item that cost $12,500 that I ordered on March 18th that hasn’t shipped. I’m having them hold it since a round-trip flight and a hotel room is a fraction of what the tariff would be. I’m just going to have a two or three-day vacation out of it.

MikeB
MikeB
8 months ago

I was thinking “well there is Motorola”. Sadly they shut down their last manufacturing facility in Texas (700 workers) in 2014. I understand production continues in China and Brazil and more recently India.

misc
misc
8 months ago

This is a massive exaggeration of price increases. If anyone believes this, they should invest a huge portion of their own money into I-phones today and sell at a massive profit when Apple raises its price. Hint — it ain’t gonna happen.

Again, this is Globalist fearmongering at its finest.

EADOman
EADOman
8 months ago
Reply to  misc

So then what would be the price of an iPhone if it is made in the US? Provide your analysis.

misc
misc
8 months ago
Reply to  EADOman

Trump negated the tariffs for cell phones. Hope you didn’t go through and buy those i-phones looking for a tariff price bump.

Lefteris
Lefteris
8 months ago

I would like to contribute a point: a few months ago, the West realized that it could not match Russia’s industrial capacity in weapon production.
We also realized a few years ago our huge dependence on China for healthcare equipment, even medicines.
Isn’t it time to bring back a lot of manufacturing to the US? Competing factories in the US would lower the cost of the iPhone over time (if that is our major concern).

Bayleaf
Bayleaf
8 months ago

The thing we have to worry about is China and the Deep State unleashing another deadly virus on the world to try to stop Trump

Jojo
Jojo
8 months ago
Reply to  Bayleaf

Actually, the Chinese were developing the Covid virus under NIH grants, so technically, it was the US who unleashed Covid.

But I understand that it really isn’t too difficult for any biology student to construct viruses in their home garage.

Augustine
Augustine
8 months ago

Where I live, the price of an iPhone will remain the same, whatever happens in Usonistan.

Bayleaf
Bayleaf
8 months ago

Judge Boardman smacked down. DOGE wins again. Oh but DOGE is powerless, they cry.

I’m back robbyrob
I’m back robbyrob
8 months ago

Blackmagic Design, a professional video equipment seller based in Melbourne, Australia, announced that it would hike prices, but only for US shoppers.
https://www.theregister.com/2025/04/07/trump_tariffs_make_prices_greater/

Six000MileYear
Six000MileYear
8 months ago

If cell phone prices spiked, humanity would be saved. Traffic accidents due to distracted driving would drop significantly, along with car insurance. People would have to interact in person and learn to think. Delayed gratification would come back in style.

Anon
Anon
8 months ago
Reply to  Six000MileYear

It is nice to know that drug dealers will at least be paying Federal taxes on their cell phones as import taxes are passed on by Apple to their US customers.

Jojo
Jojo
8 months ago
Reply to  Six000MileYear

Almost all new cars have a tablet display for fiddling and distraction while driving.

And in a few years, all cars are going to be autonomous and humans will not be allowed to drive on public roads. We are just too dangerous.

Lefteris
Lefteris
8 months ago
Reply to  Six000MileYear

I was actually hit from the back by a young texting driver, and that was about 24 years ago. It would be nice to have a feature that would deactivate texting while driving.

Bayleaf
Bayleaf
8 months ago

Judge Boasbergs. Another smuck, another smack down.

bmcc
bmcc
8 months ago

great post mish. i’m sure you have read this, but this is great. my better half had uncle milton as a professor. As Milton Friedman (Nobel Economist) explained back in the 1970s :

  In the international trade area, the language is almost always about how we must export, and what’s really good is an industry that produces exports, and if we buy from abroad and import, that’s bad. But surely that’s upside-down. What we send abroad, we can’t eat, we can’t wear, we can’t use for our houses. The goods and services we send abroad, are goods and services not available to us. On the other hand, the goods and services we import, they provide us with TV sets we can watch, with automobiles we can drive, with all sorts of nice things for us to use.

  The gain from foreign trade is what we import. What we export is a cost of getting those imports. And the proper objective for a nation as Adam Smith put it, is to arrange things so that we get as large a volume of imports as possible, for as small a volume of exports as possible.

  This carries over to the terminology we use. When people talk about a favorable balance of trade, what is that term taken to mean? It’s taken to mean that we export more than we import. But from the point of our well-being, that’s an unfavorable balance. That means we’re sending out more goods and getting fewer in. Each of you in your private household would know better than that. You don’t regard it as a favorable balance when you have to send out more goods to get fewer coming in. It’s favorable when you can get more by sending out less.

Tenacious D
Tenacious D
8 months ago
Reply to  bmcc

What in this post merits a downvote?

Jojo
Jojo
8 months ago
Reply to  Tenacious D

This is why I want to see WHO voted up or down, like Disqus shows, which would explain a lot. Also show who the lurkers are.

bmcc
bmcc
8 months ago
Reply to  Tenacious D

i ignore the up and downvotes on the internet. when i live in silicon valley i learned from the owners and developers of the biggest firms, like FB, it’s just like junior HS triggering and slot machine idiot rewards……

Christoball
Christoball
8 months ago
Reply to  bmcc

So you are saying it is better for a family to send out more money than is being taken in? That is the reciprocal of what you expouse.

pete3397
pete3397
8 months ago
Reply to  Christoball

That’s not what is being said at all. And it is Milton Friedman who is being quoted by bmcc. And what Friedman is saying is that you go to work (assuming you go to work or engage in some sort of income generating activity) and trade your outputs/skills (intellectual, labor, etc), i.e. you export your skills to others (your employer, your clients) and they trade you dollars which you import back to your bank account. Whether you spend more than you earn has little or nothing to do with you exporting your skills and importing dollars, i.e. engaging in trade.

Sentient
Sentient
8 months ago

Google A.I. tells me that the estimated labor cost per iPhone is between $12.50 and $30. I obviously don’t know if that’s true. If it cost an extra $150 in labor to build in the US, that would factor into the price, but by how much? Maybe the CIA and NSA could give them more money for their back door spying privileges.

JayW
JayW
8 months ago
Reply to  Sentient

There’s one BIG REASON Apple makes the iPhone in China:

PROFIT MARGIN

If tariffs stay in place long enough, then Apple will move production out of China. I think people forget that one of the goals here is to get companies to move production OUT of China to non-Chinese controlled countries / companies. It may not come back to the US, but it hurts China all the same which is a good thing.

Joseph Zadeh
Joseph Zadeh
8 months ago
Reply to  Sentient

Google AI sounds about right. This is from investopedia, https://www.investopedia.com/financial-edge/0912/the-cost-of-making-an-iphone.aspx,

The iPhone is primarily assembled in China by Taiwanese companies, such as Foxconn. The average salary for an iPhone worker is $10 an hour. 

According to Tim Cook, the CEO of Apple, the reason to build in China is not because of the lower labor costs. If this were the case, Apple could make its phones in even cheaper locations. The main reason, according to Cook, is the skill required in tooling engineering. He claims that the specific skill set is no longer available in the U.S., but in China, the expertise is prevalent.

The WSJ article talking assembly costs versus the tooling engineering issue is just the first thing that shows you how full of it they are.

The second is the labor cost. WSJ says By Lam’s estimates, the assembly labor that might cost $30 per phone in China could cost $300 in the U.S.

So Apple would have to pay Iphone workers 10X more than China? $100 an hour? $200,000 per year?

Tesla’s paying people between $20 and $40 to assemble cars in the USA. At those rates, the Iphone would cost between $30 and $90 more to assemble in the USA then.

Sunriver
Sunriver
8 months ago

I have a 5 year old Android. Cost $125.

Apparently, thhe newer analagous version of my Android is stlll $125.

The phone does everything I could ever want it to do, and I suspect would satisfy 90% of consumers.

Point is, couldn’t a US company(s) make a 90% sufficient phone at a $600 per unit price point?

Face it, Apple is the Ferrari/Gucci of cell phones. Their price point proves it even without tariffs today.

Is Apple Grandfathered into the no tariff zone? Because of its founder and Swifty backing?

Lastly, I believe Apple could make a 90% sufficient phone in the US for $600. They just don’t want the inconvenience.

Wild Midwest
Wild Midwest
8 months ago
Reply to  Sunriver

This.

Take away the massive amount of iPhone bloatware, AI garbage, flashy transitions and rainbow coalition emoticons – you might have a decent phone. I miss my iPhone 6S Plus with its thumb sensor and excellent battery life. The only thing I didn’t like better about that phone was it pocket-dialed too frequently. That was a software glitch affecting everyone I knew with an iPhone. Apple left that bug unaddressed for years.

Augustine
Augustine
8 months ago
Reply to  Sunriver

Guess what will happen to the price of used phones when the price of new ones rises.

TexasTim65
TexasTim65
8 months ago
Reply to  Sunriver

Correct. The big reason is they don’t want to invest in the effort of automating the production. The reason is BECAUSE they get $4/hr labor costs. If they had to pay US labor rates they’d automate production in the same way production of TV sets, cars etc is automated.

JayW
JayW
8 months ago

How Much Will an iPhone Cost with Trump’s Tariffs?
I don’t care! The good news for you Mish & everyone else is that you all will know in about 2-3 months. Until then, if your iPhone breaks, go buy a used one like I do with my Pixel phones. I just nabbed a Pixel 7 for $225 drive out. Great phone for the money.

Augustine
Augustine
8 months ago
Reply to  JayW

Guess what will happen to the price of used phones when the price of new ones rises.

JayW
JayW
8 months ago
Reply to  Augustine

OMG, thanks Dr. Economist.

Of course the price will rise, but guess what? It’s not likely to get anywhere near $1,500. The other good thing that will happen is people will move off contracts onto pre-paid where you keep your phone longer & spend a lot less money in totality.

That’s the whole point of tariffs from a substitution standpoint. People will figure out ways to save money just like producers will.

Igor
Igor
8 months ago
Reply to  JayW

Welcome to 3rd world America, Trump edition. I see you are already there mentally.
Hope you realize that you describe how it is done in those pesky poor country where new phone is a luxury. I saw wooden bikes very popular in Africa, might a nice, cheap option here as well.
You might also learn sewing, shoe making and many other skills that were popular in 1950s.
What a character, Trump absolutely loves you.

JayW
JayW
8 months ago
Reply to  Igor

What a character, Trump absolutely loves you.”

Trump appreciates his base. Again, I’m no fan of Trump’s mouth, but I do support most of his trade, immigration, military, et al policies.

DEI & CRT has done way more into making America a 3rd world country than Trump has.

MAGA!

Matt Beauchamp
Matt Beauchamp
8 months ago

Trying to think of something I care less about that Apple. Here’s an idea – why not make a phone that costs $100 without a million useless bells and whistles like 5 cameras in it? I still can’t believe morons pay $1500 for an iPhone. Funny how the price of an 85” TV went from like $50,000 down to $800 and it’s 10x better than the original, but somehow Apple crap always goes up in price.

Anon1970
Anon1970
8 months ago
Reply to  Matt Beauchamp

Such phones already exist. Try visiting your local Target store. The last time I checked, my local target store was offering such phones for a little over $100.

CaptainCaveman
CaptainCaveman
8 months ago

There’s enough perfectly good iPhones sitting in people’s drawers that people should be fine for a few years. Unless Apple were to drop a “poisonous” update….

Brutus Admirer
Brutus Admirer
8 months ago
Reply to  CaptainCaveman

Wouldn’t it be nice to have a phone company that provides its customers with a phone that will be durable for a number of years, rather than one that they purposely try to render obsolete.

Jojo
Jojo
8 months ago
Reply to  Brutus Admirer

Cellphones are pretty close to commodities today. There is no reason that they should cost what they do and as we can see from that price list above, all the part prices are way overpriced.

Matt1234
Matt1234
8 months ago

The only way you can replace 12 hours a day $4 per hour workers who don’t complain or get benefits, make 40% profit margins, and remain competitive in the US is with full robotic production. Hooray for “free” trade.

bmcc
bmcc
8 months ago
Reply to  Matt1234

back in the 70s through early 90s, i’d see so many illegal chinese sweat shops in nyc chinatowns in manhattan and brooklyn……….in the summer when they kept the doors on the factories open and you’d see hundreds of chinese immigrants hunched over sewing machines sweating with no a/c working for peanuts, it was an eye opener.

Christoball
Christoball
8 months ago
Reply to  bmcc

Brooklyn is a place well known to have people who like to make a dime scream.

EddyD
EddyD
8 months ago

FUD

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