This is no longer a highly unlikely scenario after Trump threatens another 50 Percent Tariff on China.
The lead image is from Chad P. Bown, Senior Fellow at PIIE.
Trump’s Social Media Threat
“If China does not withdraw its 34% increase above their already long term trading abuses by tomorrow, April 8th, 2025, the United States will impose ADDITIONAL Tariffs on China of 50%, effective April 9th,” he wrote on Truth Social.
“Additionally, all talks with China concerning their requested meetings with us will be terminated!”
How We Got Here
- On “Liberation Day” Trump put an additional 34 Percent tariff on top of existing Biden and long-standing Trump tariffs.
- China retaliated with 34 percent tariffs.
- Today, Trump threatens an additional 50 percent tariff on China if China does not remove its retaliation.
Current and Proposed Setup
Megan Cassella: The average U.S. tariff on imports from China starting Saturday: 76%. That’s the 34% reciprocal tariff + 20% fentanyl tariff + Sec. 301 tariffs from the first term + baseline U.S. tariffs.
Not listed: The 25% tariff on buyers of Venezuelan oil, which a WH official tells me is not yet in effect. Official says TBD if that will stack on top, too. Also not clear to me when it will take effect, as the exec order said only that it would be “on or after” April 2.
Trump is vowing an additional 50% tariff on Chinese goods, effective Wednesday, if Beijing follows through with its announced retaliation.
That would bring the total tariff rate applied to Chinese goods to 104% so far this term, a White House official confirms to me.
At What Point Does it Cease to Matter?
That’s the question I asked Erica York, VP of federal tax policy for the Tax Foundation.
I have no answer yet. But as soon as we hit that point, additional threats by Trump are meaningless.
For example, there is no difference between 200 percent tariffs and 5000 percent tariffs because all trade with China will stop.
Revenue Zero
If trade ceases, income from tariffs that Trump claims will balance the budget will drop to zero.
And for his efforts, team Trump will not collect a cent but prices will jump. We call this winning.
What About Tariff Avoidance?
The US trade deficit with China decreased from 2018 to 2024 but it was at the expense of big increases elsewhere.
The improvement with China was mostly a mirage.
Balance of Trade 2018 vs Now
- Vietnam went from -39 billion to -123 billion
- Mexico went from -69 billion to -172 billion
- China improved from -418 billion to -295 billion (yeah right)
On January 18, 2025, I commented The US Trade Deficit with China is Understated by as Much as 30 Percent
Normal trade math does not add up. US imports and China exports are not in sync.
Brad Setser Comments
- Chinese exports started exceeding US imports only in those categories with tariffs, and only after the tariffs were imposed — which provides the basic answer.
- We know the US isn’t counting 1 billion small value (de minimis) packages in the trade data, and that alone is at least $60b in missing US imports that appear in the Chinese trade data. There are other sorts of tariff avoidance/ circumvention as well.
- So right now the Chinese export data is better guide to US China trade than the US import data — which is why I now emphasize the $500b or so China reports in exports to US rather than the $400b or so the US reports in imports
This appears to be an amusing case of China cleverly avoiding US tariffs but not clever enough to hide it better.
Tariff Avoidance
It was much easier to evade tariffs between 2018 and 2024 than it is now.
Rerouting trade through Vietnam now will result in a 46 percent tariff. Previously nothing.
There is scope for tariff avoidance through Mexico or Canada but masking that would be difficult. Also, Mexico and Canada may not cooperate so easily this time.
Point of No Return
We may already be past the point of no return (where nothing Trump further does to China is meaningful).
That is not true in reverse. China can easily play hardball with the US over rare earth minerals.
Understanding Rare Earths
At present China produces 60 percent of the world’s rare earths but processes nearly 90 percent, which means that it is importing rare earths from other countries and processing them. This has given China a near monopoly.
According to the United States Geological Survey, China has been supplying 54 percent of the germanium used by the United States, a material used in infrared technology and fiber optics.
The United States has not mined its own gallium, used in semiconductors, since 1987. Japan supplies 26 percent of American imports of gallium, China 21 percent and Germany 19 percent, along with several smaller suppliers.
Antimony (Sb), a critical metalloid, is a key element of the American war machine, essential for communication equipment, night vision goggles, explosives, ammunition, nuclear weapons, submarines, warships, optics, laser sighting and more, according to U.S. Army Major General (retired) James Marks.
China controls nearly 50% of the global antimony supply.
Related Posts
November 21, 2024: China’s Puts Export Curbs on Minerals US Needs for Weapons and Technology
In a warning shot to the Trump administration, China tightens export controls on some dual-use minerals.
December 3, 2024: China Halts Rare Exports Used by US Technology Companies and the Military
This is China’s advance salvo at Trump tariffs. It comes one day after the Biden administration expanded curbs on the sale of advanced American technology to China.
China Retaliates Against Trump Tariffs
An April 4, 2025, I commented China Strikes Back With 34 Percent Tariffs, Stocks Plunge Second Day
China restricts 7 more rare earths, something I have warned about many times.
Whereas Trump may already be past the point China couldn’t care less what Trump does, the reverse is not true.
China can easily block rare earth exports to the world. If that happens, Trump will panic.
We should not be in this position, but we are.
Oh wait, I forgot. “Trade wars are good and easy to win.”
Seth “The US does not need China for rare earth minerals.”
How fast do you think that miracle will happen?
It takes a decade to get a mine up and running.
And that is just the mine. Refining is also a huge issue and China leads the way on technology.
My bet is, that the technological talent to do the refining will have to be imported, too. One last import.
A positive note i just found that before China the U.S. did process and provide 80% of rare earth minerals to the world so it would not be impossible to do.
a “Decade” ago NOW see Several rare earth element (REE) mining and processing projects are expected to come online globally and in the U.S. within the next two years. Here is a summary of key developments:
United States=Lynas Rare Earth Processing Plant (Texas):
=Round Top Project (Texas):
=Idaho Strategic Resources Projects:
=Louisiana Strategic Metals Complex:
=Phoenix Tailings Facility (New Hampshire):
=Energy Fuels (Utah):
Global ProjectsYangibana Project (Australia):
=Tanbreez Project (Greenland):
These initiatives reflect growing efforts to diversify global rare earth supply chains and reduce reliance on China, which currently dominates the market for mining and processing REEs.
You forgot the DFC’s investment in Rainbow Rare earth plc’s project in South Africa….
You are missing a huge point. Most of the Vietnamese and Mexico increase is due to China moving its final productions to these two countries. Although on the surface the trade deficit with China decreased, it is very misleading.
Try reading – I have only discussed this 20 time
I was one of the first with this excellent charts
https://mishtalk.com/economics/tariff-strawmen-and-why-prices-didnt-rise-in-trumps-first-term/
What happens?
Americans will have to pay $65 for cotton/polyester boxer shorts.
$65 for each, not for a package of three.
Other things may increase in price too!
Wow, when I have my Rummage Sale I’m going to be Rich.
Lisa, buy 100% cotton ones, sea island cotton if you can, their softer on your man parts.
ZH: “In 2005, Chuck Schumer passionately advocated for a 27.5 percent tariff on China, calling their trade policies unfair and saying it had to end.”
20 years ago. His tune seems to be different today. How long can something be allowed to go on? It reaches an inflection at some point. When does astronomical global debt inflect? When does an astronomical stock market inflect? When does a growing gap of $10 to get a $1 of GDP inflect? None of these things can simply go on forever, as history and mathematics has shown.
“Revenue Zero”
What happens to China if their revenue drops to zero? They can’t afford that.
Bessent: “The President has maximum negotiating leverage. Many of our trading partners have not escalated, and they will get priority in the queue. I think it was a big mistake, this Chinese escalation.”
When i woke up this morning, DOW futures were up 1,000.
Trump driving business and trade to the BRICs, they owe him a thank you.
Perhaps the US will start fewer wars if the Military Industrial Complex has fewer rare earth minerals.
That would be a plus…
China is the knife in our back. They are fully replaceable. Supporting China has let the fox in the chicken coop.
Trump has my full support.
If I were Chairman Xi, I would say we have decided to stop selling our products to the USA until these foolish tariffs are removed. All shipments to the USA are ordered to turn back. We await President Trump’s removal of his punitive tariffs and a personal apology.
Were this to occur, millions of businesses in the USA would have to shut down within days, immediately throwing the USA into a recession and possibly a real depression.
Would Trump go to war then?
China needs the US.
About as much as we need the ChiComs.
Exports to the US from China represent 3% of the latter’s GDP. These imports from China by the US represent 2% of the latter’s GDP. So it’d be more accurate that neither country needs the other that much.
– This is no longer a highly unlikely scenario after Trump threatens another 50 Percent Tariff on China.
> I would guess this was in retaliation to adding a matching %, that we just applied, to make things more balanced.
– At What Point Does it Cease to Matter?
> There are several actually. So high they become meaningless, So low they become meaningless, Do away with them, and you will have “Free Trade”
– If trade ceases, income from tariffs that Trump claims will balance the budget will drop to zero.
> Way more complicated than that. It’s not income from tariffs, but Free Trade that He seeks I believe.
– And for his efforts, team Trump will not collect a cent but prices will jump.
> His efforts could result in “More Free Trade” as others join in and cease Tariffs along side Him.
– What About Tariff Avoidance?
> What about Avoidance of Tariffs?
>> China Needs America for economic survival, while America does not. However, China does have rare Earths, that we Need. Ukraine Has them, that we may have soon enough. Greenland has them, and we may have them soon enough there as well. We may be mining some already, I would guess, as well. We shall see how it all plays out I suppose. I also suggest that this can be done much quicker than expected if need be…
China needs America for printed paper.
America needs China for manufactured products.
West made 28000 sanctions against Russia and not successful.
China is now forced to use its own currency to trade and
it will be major draw back for US.
China is using our “printed paper” – which is in aggregate extremely valuable – to buy up the world.
We should never have allowed such extreme trade deficits in the first place.
We have been selling our birthright for cheap trinkets – no better than the original Native Americans.
My guess is that somehow the world will survive………
Red Herring alert!
Stay the course, Trump!
MAGA!
Trump’s current strategy aims to pressure China into reducing trade imbalances rather than eliminating trade entirely
While technically possible under emergency powers, raising tariffs to 2000% would be economically catastrophic, legally contentious, and politically unfeasible.
Legal Framework: Under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), President Trump has authority to impose tariffs during national emergencies. However, such measures must align with U.S. trade laws and international agreements. A 2000% tariff would likely face legal challenges domestically and internationally.
SEE: .Diversification Trends!
Both countries are gradually reducing reliance on each other, with China sourcing more goods from other nations and U.S. exports to China declining in key sectors like semiconductors and manufacturing. However, diversification does not equate to a full trade cutoff.
Aside from rare earths, what happens if China threatens to start dumping US Treasuries.
Nothing because China won’t
https://mishtalk.com/economics/under-what-conditions-would-china-dump-us-treasuries-or-dollar-holdings/
China already reduced its treasury holding and has only 759 billion left.
No, they are hiding their ownership under other accounting entities.
Do not discount Trump’s “Pardner” this time around.
“Howdy Modi”
Howdy Modi was a community summit and mega event held on September 22, 2019, in Houston. The event was notable for the joint address by MODI, the Prime Minister of India and TRUMP, the President of the United States, showcasing the strong ties and strategic partnerships between the two countries.
AI says: India can overtake China in exports to the United States by leveraging its strengths and addressing key challenges in several sectors, particularly rare earth minerals, technology, and manufacturing. Here are strategies India can adopt:
1. Expand Rare Earth Minerals Production and Processing
Well, bad news – Trump slapped a 26% tariff on imports from India, though I guess that’s 50% less than the tariffs slapped on China.
You say “processing” but you may want to consider refining and RECYCLING steps are current WIPs only a couple years out – For A Price:
AI says Yes, there are current and emerging alternatives to sourcing rare earth minerals outside of China, though challenges remain in scaling production and refining capabilities. Here are the key developments:
1. Mining Projects Outside China
2. Recycling and Circular Economy
3. Unconventional Sources
4. Refining Capabilities
5. Geopolitical Shifts
While alternatives exist, they often involve higher costs compared to Chinese supplies due to China’s economies of scale and established infrastructure. Nonetheless, these efforts mark significant steps toward reducing reliance on China for rare earth minerals.
Yup, in 10 years, maybe, problem solved.
Refining is the problem, I hope they build one near your house, where the toxic waste will poison the region, and the workers will soon die from cancer.
There is a big reason refining is done in China – because they dont care about those factors.
Some states are disposable like Nevada, West Virginia, and Louisiana. All have high cancer rates. I don’t support these policies, but Martha’s Vineyard isn’t going to accept any nuclear waste. They discriminate by the only legal way – cost.
Outside of North Korea, all nations use their competitive advantages and practice nationalism, realism, liberalism, mercantilism, corporatism, and even collectivism. The differences are in what degree you exercise these. The lopsided trade imbalances cannot continue, and won’t.
Therefore, the status quo can no longer be maintained and we all find out what that reset looks like.
Reciprocal tariffs likely mean the end of US hegemony. All those giveaways to other nations in the fine print of those unfair “free trade” deals was a quid pro quo for acknowledging the supremacy of the American Empire…..
Tariff avoidance is hardly harder, since imports can just shift to other countries which are now comparatively more competitive. For instance, it now may be cheaper to import fabrics from Brazil rather than from China and no jobs will be created stateside yet. Alas, the trade deficit will just be accounted to a different country.
Yeah, I’m really worried about China. Will they survive?
Buy less, and hope this doesn’t last long.
Fortunately, our food doesn’t come from China.
No, it comes from Mexico and Central America.
The USA sells a lot of food to China. If that trade stops and surplus food has to be moved, then the prices of many foods will decline, as they did during Covid. Almonds were cheaper, as were Medjool dates and strawberries here in CA. The strawberries were also larger.
But since food isn’t included in BLS “core” inflation, changing prices on food will not have much, if any, effect on inflation.
Pork prices would drop in the U.S. for sure. China owns Smithfield farms which is the biggest pork producer in the US. I guess all the pork they send to china would stay in the U.S.
Wondering if trade was already starting to freeze in the lead up to “Liberation Day”? Last week I purchased a high-power broadcast tube from Alibaba for quite a bit of money, all was well. 3 days later got a sudden cancellation due to the U.S. not permitting the import because the tube “Could” be used in a medical device. That I was using a vacuum tube for a broadcast facility didn’t seem to matter to the “land of the free” bureaucrats. Received a refund and had to purchase an inferior tube from the few remaining domestic suppliers. (it’s a niche and declining market) Maybe it’s patriotic to “lose”?
I’d add these tubes use thoriated tungsten of which the United States has only thin, poor quality stocks. The rare earth and strategic minerals supply chain matters.
gerry maddoux
Ignored
04/07/2025 at 12:49 pm
Contrary to corporate opinion, this abrupt fall of WTI to $60 is very good for U.S. energy independence. These CEO’s aren’t thinking past their next earnings report. No matter alternative forms of energy, the U.S. (and the world) is going to need oil and gas for decades to come. Look no farther than the Permian Basin. They have run through an amazing collection of source rocks like maize through a goose, with absolutely no regard for anything but money.
For the uninformed, man has traditionally drilled into oil that had migrated a good distance from the source rocks, gathering in an oil trap of some sort.
Drilling deep into the earth to blast oil and gas out of the SOURCE ROCKS represents some degree of desperation–this is the last gasp in American oil and gas production.
I make my living from oil and gas, primarily from shale. However, I would very much rather sell less product at higher prices than to give away large quantities as though it’s no big deal to replace it. When the source rocks are all blasted to smithereens, there’s no more production.
The world has not known fossil fuel starvation for over a century. It will not be a good look. Those who are demonstrating against FF’s have no concept just how bleak an oil-starved world would be. This correction–if it persists for months, not just weeks–will idle a lot of rigs, bankrupt a lot of people drilling the next well from the flush of the last one, and will reset the priorities. At least that would be the ideal. No pain, no gain.
Gas prices haven’t moved an inch yet here in SF Bay Area of CA. Most are still over $5/gal.
You are missing the point of the comment.
Nothing new here.
1. Low oil prices will reduce oil production.
2. Low production will push prices back up.
3. Higher prices will bring production back up.
Same thing for all commodities.
^ First comment with any relation to reality.
Apply the same logic to other industries, like agricultural – see farmers saying the same thing: without export markets, they go out of business.
Prices cant drop forever, Americans can only consume so much, when suppliers go under, prices will go right back up, as temporary over- supply conditions soon end.
Mfg. has been leaving China caused by high labor costs. Marketing and branding companies don’t give an F where it’s mfg. So simple even a 5th grader should understand. Tariffs will give Trump some bargaining chips but it’s so simpler to just tax the bastard companies inside the US into a frightful existence. Good luck and tax the crap out of foreign owned mega business.
If companies are leaving China due to high costs, where does that put America, where costs are much higher ?
What happens? Smuggling.
If you force a price up too high, you get black markets.
If you force a price down too low you get lines around the block.
Plus finally allow a permit for the enormous mineral rich Pebble Mine in Alaska. I lit could be one of the largest in the world. It is estimated to be worth around $300 to $500 billion based on the value of its contained minerals
Didn’t Forbes make their money from opium smuggling? And Grandpa Trump made money selling horsemeat as steaks out of a brothel.
What happens?
Two huge economies go into the shitter.
Ours will be a golden shitter.
Called Thucydides Trap.
Off-topic – another strong indictor of economic malaise: Real Per Person Consumer Credit is down hard, again, now falling year-over-year at rates only previously seen during (or just *after*) recessions.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1HS1N
(Use FRED to graph Total Consumer Credit divided by Population, then divided by CPI-U.)
Persuasive chart. How does that square with credit card debt, which was increasing at an 8% annual rate in the 2nd half of 2024? How can the 2 not move together?
Updated data – this is not second half of 2024.
If goods don’t cross borders, soldiers will.
A case in point: FDR purposefully manipulated the US into WWII via declaring economic war on Japan.
China has a surplus of males due to their earlier one child policy. China has the industrial might to fight a war of attrition. Taiwan is a valuable advanced silicon product source. The use of nukes in war would be suicidal for the US. The US is in no shape to fight a war of attrition until it re-industrializes. Cannon fodder is currently being deported from the US.
Perhaps this is China’s time to act on Taiwan.
I forgot this: The US is experiencing significant social/economic disruption.
So is China, you’re just not going to hear about it
More disruptive than 20 million illegals invading our country and being put up by the taxpayer? More disruptive than being lied to by the govt about anything of any importance for 4 years–from everything Officialdom said about the Fauci virus and jab to J6 to crime to Ukraine to men being able to have babies to Biden is sharp as a tac…
The avg net cost ( paid taxes minus government benefits) is $-68k of ann illegal immigrate during their life in the U.S. We are going to have a nice bill going forward
https://epicforamerica.org/federal-budget/billions-of-government-benefits-for-illegal-aliens/
Out of date.
Missiles and drones now a day.
If trade with China came to a screeching halt (subjunctive mood), there would be unforeseen consequences because their production is so interwoven into various products. During Covid, some new construction homes couldn’t get their final certificates of occupancy because the circuit panels were on back order for a year. People knew abut the appliance backlog, but not about things like the circuit panel.
I’d worry more about India, though, because they make 40% of pharmaceuticals taken by Americans. The NYT ran a sad story a few years ago about the US embargo on Venezuela where a Venezuelan family caught their mentally ill son on the verge of cutting his arm off with a power saw because he was psychotic and they couldn’t get his meds.
Color me unconcerned.
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/foreign-trade/india-emerges-winner-in-us-reciprocal-tariff-sees-limited-impact-of-pharma-tariffs/articleshow/120021786.cms?from=mdr
Did Mish know this? Germany may look to withdraw its gold from US https://www.mining.com/germany-may-look-to-withdraw-its-gold-from-us-vaults/
If the U.S. and China cannot agree on tariffs for direct trade, and “all trade comes to a screeching halt” … then middlemen in 3rd party nations will pick up the burden of collecting profits by buying parts low from one country, doing final finishing to get a new product label, and selling higher into the other country.
That plus smuggling. Plenty of both already going on (cough Vietnam cough).
Excess tariffs don’t work because evasion, smuggling and black markets all become too profitable.
Canonical example is fentanyl, which has effectively and “infinite tariff” in the U.S. yet is still being imported from China.
Tariffs Are Splintering Donald Trump’s Coalition
One of the Right’s biggest funders and most important strategists, longtime Federalist Society head Leonard Leo, seems to be breaking with Donald Trump over tariffs.
The jolt into positive territory was short-lived — a spark of hope kindled by a bogus rumor that Trump was weighing a three-month delay on tariffs.
CNN
LMFAO
The pace of reshoring will accelerate.
What will China do with so many unemployed people who could cause civil unrest?
Shoot them?
China will cave. Trump isn’t backing down. Trump will up the anti by putting a 50% tariff on any country that does business with China.
Where does this nonsense end, putting a tariff on any country that does business with any country that does business with any country that does business with China.
Get a grip.
I believe it ends when other countries treat the US the same way that they want to be treated, i.e. “reciprocal tariffs”. I believe that is this administrations goal, is it not?
No, apparently not. Netanyahu offered to eliminate Israelis tariffs but Trump said no deal.
Last time I checked, rare earth minerals before and after they are mined are fungible. So is China going to blockade the whole world so the US can’t get them. Nobody will sell them to the US in a black market? China cannot hurt us much.
So . . . Japan & Germany will willingly export more Gallium to the US, make up the difference by importing from China – possibly invoking the ire of China wich will then restrict exports to these countries – and willingly to help the US because they are such great friends . . . . maybe before their exports to the US were tariffed because they are allies, but WHY would they do so now? Same question for any other country and product, WHY would they willingly help the US at this point?
Countries will not help out the US.
We have no friends anymore, as you must have noticed.
With friends like those, who needs enemies. Our “friends” only give a shit as long as we continue to be the cash cow.
Who needs friends when we have the world’s reserve currency?
An increasing black market for one item increases the black market for other items.
The PRC creed: 1) rule with an iron fist, 2) Taiwan and 3) restore our national pride. Trump increased his economic pressure on China to show who is the boss. The Chinese econ (as well as ours) is in frog cooking for decades. By raising the temp centrifugal forces might break China apart (and the US). China will not dbl down. Xi might be more elastic in order to avoid separation or a kinetic conflicts. China will still be in bed with us in a stealthy way. No amygdala. Within a few month both side will negotiate with each other in order to restore relationship. Xi will bend the PRC constitution bc both sides cannot live without each other. It will work bc both Trump and Xi are smart and talented superstate leaders.
Mish I think your followers are fed up with my comments. I will give them a break for a while.
I actually enjoy reading your comments. I don’t always agree, but they seem well thought out, especially since I don’t think English is your first language.
Yes, fed up – but I give you an up arrow anyway.
Perhaps if you ran them through an AI first and translated them into proper English before posting?
If tariffs are so bad, why does the whole world have them against us?
Is China hurting itself with their 34% increase? Does the EU hurt themselves with their tariffs and VAT? Seems like they have all done ok to me…..?
I will cover this in a post
But if Susie jumps off a bridge should you?
Most of the world has VATs. If trump wanted reciprocal he would seek a VAT.
The actual effective rate, discounting Trump’s blatantly stupid method that by the way has an error) might be 5%.
“ If tariffs are so bad, why does the whole world have them against us?”
They don’t.
Most countries in the world do NOT have tariffs against the US specifically. Most countries have tariffs on certain products in order to protect domestic industries.
For example, Taiwan has a 4% tariff on industrial goods. This is on all countries; not just the US.
It is false to say that the US is being targeted by tariffs more than any other country.
Similarly, the US has had a 25% tariff on imported pickup trucks since 1965 in order to protect our domestic automakers. This tariff is not on any specific country. It is on trucks.
Over 95% of world trade is already tariff free. Most countries trade weighted tariffs average less then 5%. The US, Europe and China have trade weighted tariff rates of 3% or less.
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/tariff-rates-by-country/
What does this mean? It means Trump’s claim that the rest of the world is taking advantage of the US is pure bs.
A quick check of the Interwebs and I don’t believe you are correct.
Not to mention the Laws, rules, and regulations used to prevent US goods. China has had very large tariffs on US goods for some time and they are the fastest growing economy in the world, so my question still stands.
Lol! The only reason that China has specific tariffs on US goods is in retaliation for US tariffs on Chinese goods over the last 8 years. Perhaps you can check that out on the interweb as well.
I believe China’s tariffs are about 50 years older than that. Perhaps you too should read the interweb, might help understand what’s going on. There is much more at play than simply tariffs, but I digress.
Why should I bother when you can simply show me these 50 year old Chinese tariffs on US specific goods that you have already looked up.
Go ahead and prove it. Show me those tariffs.
And while you are at it, you can also show me all the other countries that have US specific tariffs and the dates they were imposed on us.
I look forward to being enlightened by your interweb research.
Thanks in advance.
Oh, and if you don’t show them to me then you will prove that you are a lying sack of sh*t.
Stop using facts
That’s why Trump’s tariffs are actually a hidden sales tax to fund his legislative agenda.
Here’s a good price deck for the individual Rare Earth metals
https://strategicmetalsinvest.com/current-strategic-metals-prices/
They vary a lot in price. One of the dearest ones is Neodymium – which makes the most powerful magnets for electric motors/generators, etc. Typically the dearest RE metals are one of the so called “Heavy” REs.
California’s “Mountain Pass” RE site HAD/HAS REs; but just having REs is not enough. It needs the valuable “Heavies” which it does not have. Thus it’s been through multiple bankruptcies.
The other handicap is processing the REs into proper purity. The US unfortunately sold our patents and ways to Hitachi (who licensed some to China) back in the ’70’s. That ship has sailed. IMO we’d do best to partner w/ say an Aussie RE co as some have nice projects a bit advanced; and w/ some processing capex and experience that would really help all of us (non-Chinese users). Sorry Trump, we only need good and reliable Western partners and not the entire food chain – which would be far more costly and take far longer. (Something we could work towards.) But to start, some advanced Aussie projects are just the ticket to the cheapest fastest sharable supplies.
Well I just ordered 20,000 units of acrylic discs from a company south of Shanghai for a business I am starting. So that would really suck
Other elements I can get more cheaply here in the US, but this one is more than 7 times as expensive to get in the US
Yes, you are one of the small companies Trump does not give a rat’s ass about.
Did you vote for Trump?
The US does not need China for rare earth minerals. They do however need to scale up mining efforts to become largely self-sufficient, since they have significant rare earth deposits such as Halleck Creek and the Round Top Project. China needs the US far more than reverse due to do their export business to the US. Though China has been decreasing it’s US export business, losing it will still have a significant impact on China’s economy, which is heavily struggling. It is in the best interests of both countries to work out a deal.
Seth “The US does not need China for rare earth minerals.”
How fast do you think that miracle will happen?
It takes a decade to get a mine up and running.
And that is just the mine. Refining is also a huge issue and China leads the way on technology.
Operations in Halleck Creek are expected to begin by 2029. If the rare earth supply is that critical, the current administration will fast track these and other efforts to start sooner. In the meantime the U.S. may need to source rare earth mineralso from other countries such as Brazil, Australia, and India.
Who will refine them? What do we do for the next 5 years?
President Trump can declare an emergency, waive all regulatory/safety requirements, and invest in the business.
Still will take years. In the mean tine, companies who need those NOW, will go out of business, if they cant get supply now, reducing demand, causing mines and refiners not to expand or be built at all.
Trump can sign piles of papers, but supply/demand will over-rule him.
Who is going to finance projects that take 5-10 years when selling the eventual product is so uncertain?
The sheer stupidity in most comments of Americans on these topics on many sites is just mind- boggling.
Well, getting rid of the Department of Education does indicate American priorities. Mob action and lynching has played an important role in our history.
Whatever “technology” China leads the way on I’m sure they stole from someone else. Do you really think we can’t figure out how to refine these minerals? If we decided that this was a priority and made it a “Manhattan project” we would lead the world in short order. Of course the looney left would file a hundred environmental lawsuits with their favorite activist judges, so that might slow things down a bit.
No problem – we’ll just make sure the refineries are built in your neighborhood.
The refining issue is serious. The outcasts who work at some of the plants in China have many die from cancer and such. If you’re thinking having SOME level of safety is an onerous stupid lefty thing than please volunteer to do it.
You know, the refining technology we SOLD to Hitachi 50 yrs ago; they LICENCED to the Chinese. (W/ out safety protocols.)
Your using overly simplistic convenient bombastic catcalls about a complex multifaceted problem. It’s called REDUCTIONIST FALLACY.
BTW, no one involved in processing REs 50 yrs ago in the ’70s is alive.
Stop posting facts
The arrogance is strong. China has had many more times the STEM grads than the US for 20 years. And half the US ones are actually Chinese or Indian. The US economy is now all about services and innovation means a new financial investment product.
Stop posting facts
The lunch has already been eaten.
Xi exit, stage left.
Trump is counting on his Insaneodynium to save the day, it’s the rarest of the REEs /s
To put it quite succinctly, China is f*cked.
If you think this is not mutually assured destruction I suggest you read up on those rare earth elements Mish is referencing for starters.
The majority of China’s trade is with other Asian nations. Tariffs could hurt their economies – and thus China’s exports – but it’s not like the US is the only place China sells stuff. At all.
I think they sell to Australia too.
Aussies are next exporters of REs. W/o checking into it (later) I can not say they are refining all of them.
I listed a price deck link for ALL the REs. So quite simply as they quote all the RE prices (in English too) someone besides China has some level of production.
A check of REs at the USGS website will list all the resources, production, exporters and all
Here it is
https://www.usgs.gov/centers/national-minerals-information-center/rare-earths-statistics-and-information
Sorry, I misread the above post – thought Sentient was referring to China’s exports, in general.
Lol sure they are.