New variants, especially the Delta and Omicron, just provide cover for the crash in markets and the emergency powers required to print. NU was supposed to be the next variant but even that was so obvious. Classic playbook routine to continue lockdowns as well
Carl_R
2 years ago
One theory was that more vaccination would mean more mutations because it would need to mutate to get around the antibodies produced by the vaccine. The alternate theory was that less vaccinations would mean more mutations because there would be more cases, meaning more opportunity to mutate. So far the real world data seems to favor the latter, as Delta came from India, and Omicron came from Botswanna, neither of which has done much vaccination. I’m not aware of any mutation of interest that originated in a heavily vaccinated country.
I had earlier seen an article that said it originated in Botswana, but the last one I looked at implied that it originated in South Africa, and had moved to Botswana. If it originated in Gauteng Provice, South Africa, where they are moderately vaccinated, at about 35%, it doesn’t clearly support to either theory, though it probably leans more towards the more cases=more mutations theory.
Viruses have no need to waste precious energy mutating if they can achieve their life cycle end (infect & reproduce) w/o doing anything. The unvaxxed would have gotten sick with the original variant, the immune system would have killed the virus or the virus would have killed the host. Those that survived would have been immunized against the virus going forward. When it ran out of hosts to infect, the virus would die off.
The problem here is that the so-called Covid vaccines are LEAKY and don’t sterilize or kill the virus. This allows the virus to fester in people’s upper respiratory areas, mutating as they try to find a way to infect the host. Given that this partial solution reduces the severity of the infection in those who take the shots, they can often feel that they aren’t “that sick” and go wandering around, go to work, go shopping, etc., transmitting their mutating viruses everywhere.
The real problem prolonging the Covid scamdemic is the vaccinated and the fake vaccine shots, NOT the unvaxxed!
Some weekend reading for you and other pro-vaxxers:
Leaky vaccines, super-spreads, and variant acceleration
Imperfect vaccines can make a virus more prevalent and more deadly. some questions on covid vaccines and their policy implications.
Don’t worry, I get it. Pick scientists that have theories that support the conclusions you hope are true. If the real world data doesn’t agree, ignore it. I’m aware of the possibility that the virus, in response to the vaccines, could mutate to find a way around the vaccine, possibly becoming more deadly as a result. I’m also aware that all viruses, including Covid, mutate from time to time, and that, the more cases there are, the more they mutate.
So far, all the serious mutations have occurred in mostly unvaccinated countries. Delta came from India, at a time where it was almost completely unvaccinated. Omicron came from either Botswana or South Africa, where the majority of people are unvaccinated. Before those, Alpha appeared in UK at a time they had few, if any, vaccinations, and other variants appeared in South Africa and Brazil. The odds favor the probability that all of the above occurred in unvaccinated people. What variants have originated in highly vaccinated countries? Well, in Japn they had the A394V variant, which is actually a good variant, not a bad one.
Someday, perhaps a serious variant will originate in a highly vaccinated country that will be effective in getting around the vaccine. So far, however, that hasn’t happened, at least that I’m aware of. If you have evidence otherwise, please feel free to present it, but it adds nothing to say “oh, but it could happen”.
It’s you that need to produce data to defend your hypothesis. What variants of concern have come from highly vaccinated counties? Delta and Omicron both came from countries with low vaccination rates.
“Viruses have no need to waste precious energy mutating if they can achieve their life cycle end (infect & reproduce) w/o doing anything.”
There exists no such thing as “we.” Nor “them.” Nor “They.” Instead, there are only individuals.
While that may be too complimecated for the average well indoctrinated homo idioticus to grasp; more advanced liforms, like Covid, aren’t that dumb nor naive nor economically and evolutionarily illiterate.
Every single covid “individual” has an incentive to beat his peers, by becoming aggressive enough to beat the others in the race to take over a potential host’s reproduction-facilitating machinery. Covid individuals aren’t naive enough to sit back and coordinate and do as told by their “democratically elected” President of Covidstan and his panel of appointed five year planners and “experts” Instead, they act as free and rationally optimizing individuals. Using every opportunity presented, to make their offspring better suited at getting spreading itself. Back when humans where literate, pre progressive movement, go forth and multiply was the slogan. Those covid guys are not dumb enough to fall for progressivism.
Viruses are not “life forms” per say. They have no consciousness, nor will. They do not plan to mutate. They do not “try” to improve. Mutations are just random chance. If some mutation happens to have advantages, it has a better chance of thriving.
They’re not self sustaining life. But as far as evolutionary calculus is concerned, including wrt mutations, this does not matter. Their “decisions”, whether conscious or not, are still taken at an individual level. They adapt (limited to only mutation in their case) to beat their peers in competition, regardless of whether their “community’s” current policy is hampered by a vaccine or not (vaccination does change the environment they are adapting to, though..). They are not really any different from from other beings i that regard. Just limited to one pathway (mutation) to adapt. Modeling their behavior as if there is some collective strategy guiding them, is as misguided wrt viruses as it is wrt people.
Christoball
2 years ago
This might just be the start of a healthy 20% correction
“…357 more people died from the virus in Germany the last 24 hours.”
Died from the virus, or died because they were denied early treatment with anti-viral drugs? These drugs were blocked, for a vaccine agenda. This has been going on since what, April 2020? The bodies have been piling up like cord wood and no one will do anything to stop it.
357. Stalin said one death is a tragedy, 1,000,000 deaths is a statistic. To the public health agencies, these 357 are just a statistic, since they blocked therapies that could have saved the lives of most of those people.
There is a tremendous conflict of interest going on and it is costing people their health or their life. The very people who are supposed to regulate for the benefit of the public, are captured by those they are supposed to be regulating. That is how an Alzheimer’s drug that doesn’t work, is approved by the FDA, or a drug that failed safety trial- Remdesivir, is part of the PREP Act in-patient Covid-19 protocol. All this faux concern that a very safe drug, Ivermectin will harm people, while ignoring the very real danger that Remdesivir could destroy one’s kidneys and kill them.
Remdesivir is not about saving lives. AZT as treatment for AIDS patients, was not about saving lives. It was about the benefit to a pharmaceutical company.
The public health agencies have misplaced priorities and people are dying because of it.
Felix_Mish
2 years ago
Covid is right on schedule. Notice the northern hemisphere is going in to “flu season”?
Flu season is more like people staying indoors due to the weather and spreading whatever viruses are around easily.
The South gets hit in AC season, the North in heating season. And the Northwest this year got hit in hot and smoky season. The smoke did seem to irritate everyone’s lungs, and that and the heat kept people indoors.
The “AC/heating season”, etc. is the usual thinking, far as I know. But some time ago I noticed that reality is stranger.
Like, if cold-indoor living of winter was the driver of the winter high of “flu” (actually, the numbers I see are deaths per week – in a sine-ish wave with the high in Jan/Feb-ish), then you’d expect “flu” (and deaths) to start rising in the Canadian states (those bordering Canada, that is). And then you’d see the “flu” spread south as people go inside. And, yes, you’d see a counter-cyclic thing in the south and southwest as the AC kicks on. And, as spring comes, you’d see the wave recede back to Canada.
But, if there’s a consistent pattern, it’s that a Caribbean flu-barge docks in New Orleans or maybe east Texas in late October-ish, and the flu disembarks and spreads from there. It spreads out to the country in sometimes-smooth, sometimes-jumpy patterns until extra USAians are dying all over the country. Then, with early spring, the wave pulls back to the Texas/Louisiana coast.
My gut feeling: There are fundamental aspects of viral diseases completely unknown to humans.
numike
2 years ago
– many waves
– herd immunity not happening
– waning protection
– endless boosters
– recombination not point mutations creating new scary variants
– epidemiological models with limited usefulness or wrong predictions .
– heterogeneity in several dimensions ( time of year, location , etc..) still resistant to explanation.
-proximal origin
-men more affected than women
numike
2 years ago
Will Omicron make up greater than 1% of U.S. COVID-19 cases by the new year? link to kalshi.com
FromBrussels
2 years ago
Oooooo Micron ….WELCOME !, We ll worship you, and feed you, with new vaccines and endless boosters to make you even more stronger like we did with your venerable siblings !!
It’s reminiscent of the 2018 flu epidemic when ICU’s were overburdened, hospitals were treating patients in tents, everyone had to mask up and the entire country went into total lockdown. Except that masking and lockdowns never happened.
Steve_R
2 years ago
Biden asked for lower oil prices, looks like he got them, I thought GS was short
The new variant is a cause for concern for more than markets….we’re not out of the COVID woods yet. But boy am I ever tired of COVID.
But….I took the opportunity to add to many of my favorite positions today in energy. Uranium took a big hit. Oil & gas took a big hit. Miners took a big hit. Mostly I made small adds, but I did add a larger piece to SBSW, one of my favorite miners. They are a producer of gold, platinum, palladium, rhodium, nickel, and copper. And they pay a dividend. They’re a South African company, so they got gobsmacked today.
What weathered the storm great TODAY ? Carbon credits were actually green…also midstream US pipeline companies were not seriously affected.
Also, fwiw, the income ETF’s that track the NASDAQ 100 and the S&P using options strategies, NUSI and JEPI, barely moved today. I’ll be watching for delayed effects.
My portfolio was down 5.68% (mostly due to uranium which is volatile and was already in a pullback) …but my timeline is such that I still view this as a fortunate chance to build long term positions in companies that have a claim on tangible energy assets and other commodities.
Myself
I am looking for buy points but not buying yet. My animal spirits are still in
the lair waiting for the moment to slink out and strike. It will be soon I
believe. The primal hunger for sinking my fangs into a prime hunk of
undervalued assets is building.
It’ll be interesting to see if the buy the dippers turn it around yet again, I’d guess most expect they will. I’d got the impression many are already fully invested with not much room to top up though.
I certainly could be very wrong, but the sell-off today, especially in the energy sector, reeks of manipulation. All the usual things were in place. A post holiday very light market day. A “COVID black swan” that really isn’t a black swan. Oil and uranium both dropping into a DCL after a weak couple of weeks.
My first thought after reading that was Goldmans were trying to rationalise the degree of the oil price move with fundamentals to conclude it had moved too much. However this presumes the price was fair before the move which may or may not be right. Either way they were caught off guard.
I do agree the timing was a bit of a lucky coincidence as far oil is concerned because we know the western authorities wanted lower prices. However they would’ve also known the new variant news would’ve also upset other markets.
I have not collected a dividend from SBSW as of yet. My understanding is that they pay out in a similar way to MLP’s which are tax advantaged in the US because some of the pay-out is considered return of capital and is therefore taxed as capital gains. Not advice, do your own DD, of course.
Fwiw, some people HATE MLP’s because they make for difficult tax accounting. But I only know about US taxes. In general, if you’re a high income earner, the tax deferment is worth a little extra tax accounting. imho.
Keep an eye on hospitalizations there. Judging from the speed of reproduction of the new variante we should be able to see its lethality rate fairly soon. The official name of it is now Omicron which sounds rather ominous if you ask me.
I’m dumb when it comes to Greek alphabet. I did not know that Omicron was one of the Greek letters. So sorry…
Scooot
2 years ago
I’d say it was definitely the the new variant that triggered it. I was watching the decline get going last night shortly after the reports of Sajid Javid’s comments and other scientists were reported by the BBC. They seemed pretty scary.
Stay Informed
Subscribe to MishTalk
You will receive all messages from this feed and they will be delivered by email.
Flu season is more like people staying indoors due to the weather and spreading whatever viruses are around easily.
I am looking for buy points but not buying yet. My animal spirits are still in
the lair waiting for the moment to slink out and strike. It will be soon I
believe. The primal hunger for sinking my fangs into a prime hunk of
undervalued assets is building.