Stock Selloff Blamed on New Covid-19 Variant, Lockdowns Feared

Global Fears

The WSJ reports New Coronavirus Variant Arrives in Europe, Sets Off Global Fears of Restrictions

Europe recorded its first case of the fast-spreading new coronavirus variant and dozens of countries restricted travel to and from southern Africa—where it was first detected—amid concerns that it could be more contagious than previous strains and render Covid-19 vaccines less effective.

White House officials have been discussing imposing travel restrictions on countries in southern Africa, and are expected to meet with agency officials this afternoon to make a recommendation, people familiar with the matter said.

Germany’s BioNTech SE, which developed one of the most commonly used Covid-19 vaccines together with Pfizer Inc., said it would take about two weeks to establish whether the new variant renders its shot less effective. If needed, a BioNTech spokeswoman said, the companies could produce a new vaccine adjusted to any variant within six weeks and ship initial batches within 100 days.

Data from South Africa’s National Institute for Communicable Diseases show how the new variant over the past two weeks quickly crowded out the highly transmissible Delta variant. It now makes up around 90% of infections in the country’s most populous province, home to its political and economic capitals of Pretoria and Johannesburg.

The European Union said Friday that it would propose activating an “emergency brake” to stop air travel between the 27-country bloc and the southern African region, citing concerns over B.1.1.529. Several member states have already moved to impose restrictions, following the U.K. and several countries in Asia, including Singapore, Hong Kong and Japan.

Spotlight Germany

Note that 357 more people died from the virus in Germany the last 24 hours.

CNBC reported Merkel’s push for German lockdown reportedly blocked as death toll passes 100,000.

Market Reaction

In general, it is difficult to pin a one day move in the markets on anything, especially with valuations stretched across the board. 

But global lockdowns and threats of them can easily be a trigger. 

The US will not disconnect from global weakness any more than China disconnected from the global economy in 2007.

Thanks for Tuning In!

Like these reports?

If so, please Subscribe to MishTalk Email Alerts.

Subscribers get an email alert of each post as they happen. Read the ones you like and you can unsubscribe at any time.

If you have subscribed and do not get email alerts, please check your spam folder.

Mish

Subscribe to MishTalk Email Alerts.

Subscribers get an email alert of each post as they happen. Read the ones you like and you can unsubscribe at any time.

This post originated on MishTalk.Com

Thanks for Tuning In!

Mish

Subscribe
Notify of
guest

60 Comments
Newest
Oldest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Cocoa
Cocoa
2 years ago
New variants, especially the Delta and Omicron, just provide cover for the crash in markets and the emergency powers required to print. NU was supposed to be the next variant but even that was so obvious. Classic playbook routine to continue lockdowns as well
Carl_R
Carl_R
2 years ago
One theory was that more vaccination would mean more mutations because it would need to mutate to get around the antibodies produced by the vaccine. The alternate theory was that less vaccinations would mean more mutations because there would be more cases, meaning more opportunity to mutate. So far the real world data seems to favor the latter, as Delta came from India, and Omicron came from Botswanna, neither of which has done much vaccination. I’m not aware of any mutation of interest that originated in a heavily vaccinated country.
Carl_R
Carl_R
2 years ago
Reply to  Carl_R
I had earlier seen an article that said it originated in Botswana, but the last one I looked at implied that it originated in South Africa, and had moved to Botswana. If it originated in Gauteng Provice, South Africa, where they are moderately vaccinated, at about 35%, it doesn’t clearly support to either theory, though it probably leans more towards the more cases=more mutations theory.
Jojo
Jojo
2 years ago
Reply to  Carl_R
Viruses have no need to waste precious energy mutating if they can achieve their life cycle end (infect & reproduce) w/o doing anything.  The unvaxxed would have gotten sick with the original variant, the immune system would have killed the virus or the virus would have killed the host.  Those that survived would have been immunized against the virus going forward.  When it ran out of hosts to infect, the virus would die off.
The problem here is that the so-called Covid vaccines are LEAKY and don’t sterilize or kill the virus.  This allows the virus to fester in people’s upper respiratory areas, mutating as they try to find a way to infect the host.  Given that this partial solution reduces the severity of the infection in those who take the shots, they can often feel that they aren’t “that sick” and go wandering around, go to work, go shopping, etc., transmitting their mutating viruses everywhere.
The real problem prolonging the Covid scamdemic is the vaccinated and the fake vaccine shots, NOT the unvaxxed!
Some weekend reading for you and other pro-vaxxers:
Leaky vaccines, super-spreads, and variant acceleration
Imperfect vaccines can make a virus more prevalent and more deadly. some questions on covid vaccines and their policy implications.
el gato malo
Aug 17, 2021 
Carl_R
Carl_R
2 years ago
Reply to  Jojo
As I said, so far the real world data supports just the opposite.
Jojo
Jojo
2 years ago
Reply to  Carl_R
As I always have to remind you – produce the data.  Anyone can declare any results they like, such as that the Covid shots are effective.
Six000mileyear
Six000mileyear
2 years ago
Reply to  Jojo
Chris Martenson has been presenting the real world data.
Jojo
Jojo
2 years ago
Reply to  Six000mileyear
You should send the link to Carl.
Carl_R
Carl_R
2 years ago
Reply to  Jojo
Don’t worry, I get it. Pick scientists that have theories that support the conclusions you hope are true. If the real world data doesn’t agree, ignore it. I’m aware of the possibility that the virus, in response to the vaccines, could mutate to find a way around the vaccine, possibly becoming more deadly as a result. I’m also aware that all viruses, including Covid, mutate from time to time, and that, the more cases there are, the more they mutate.
So far, all the serious mutations have occurred in mostly unvaccinated countries. Delta came from India, at a time where it was almost completely unvaccinated. Omicron came from either Botswana or South Africa, where the majority of people are unvaccinated. Before those, Alpha appeared in UK at a time they had few, if any, vaccinations, and other variants appeared in South Africa and Brazil. The odds favor the probability that all of the above occurred in unvaccinated people. What variants have originated in highly vaccinated countries? Well, in Japn they had the A394V variant, which is actually a good variant, not a bad one.
Someday, perhaps a serious variant will originate in a highly vaccinated country that will be effective in getting around the vaccine. So far, however, that hasn’t happened, at least that I’m aware of. If you have evidence otherwise, please feel free to present it, but it adds nothing to say “oh, but it could happen”. 
Carl_R
Carl_R
2 years ago
Reply to  Jojo
It’s you that need to produce data to defend your hypothesis. What variants of concern have come from highly vaccinated counties?  Delta and Omicron both came from countries with low vaccination rates.
FromBrussels
FromBrussels
2 years ago
Reply to  Carl_R
‘the real world’  meaning the one sponsered and/or bribed by Big Pharma….
StukiMoi
StukiMoi
2 years ago
Reply to  Jojo
“Viruses have no need to waste precious energy mutating if they can achieve their life cycle end (infect & reproduce) w/o doing anything.”
There exists no such thing as “we.” Nor “them.” Nor “They.” Instead, there are only individuals.
While that may be too complimecated for the average well indoctrinated homo idioticus to grasp; more advanced liforms, like Covid, aren’t that dumb nor naive nor economically and evolutionarily illiterate.
Every single covid “individual” has an incentive to beat his peers, by becoming aggressive enough to beat the others in the race to take over a potential host’s reproduction-facilitating machinery. Covid individuals aren’t naive enough to sit back and coordinate and do as told by their “democratically elected” President of Covidstan and his panel of appointed five year planners and “experts” Instead, they act as free and rationally optimizing individuals. Using every opportunity presented, to make their offspring better suited at getting spreading itself. Back when humans where literate, pre progressive movement, go forth and multiply was the slogan. Those covid guys are not dumb enough to fall for progressivism.
Carl_R
Carl_R
2 years ago
Reply to  StukiMoi
Viruses are not “life forms” per say. They have no consciousness, nor will. They do not plan to mutate. They do not “try” to improve. Mutations are just random chance.  If some mutation happens to have advantages, it has a better chance of thriving.
StukiMoi
StukiMoi
2 years ago
Reply to  Carl_R
They’re not self sustaining life. But as far as evolutionary calculus is concerned, including wrt mutations, this does not matter. Their “decisions”, whether conscious or not, are still taken at an individual level. They adapt (limited to only mutation in their case) to beat their peers in competition, regardless of whether their “community’s” current policy is hampered by a vaccine or not (vaccination does change the environment they are adapting to, though..). They are not really any different from from other beings i that regard. Just limited to one pathway (mutation) to adapt. Modeling their behavior as if there is some collective strategy guiding them, is as misguided wrt viruses as it is wrt people.
Christoball
Christoball
2 years ago
This might just be the start of a healthy 20% correction
ColoradoAccountant
ColoradoAccountant
2 years ago
Reply to  Christoball
20 percent correction of the market or the population?  You weren’t clear.
Jojo
Jojo
2 years ago
Both seem like positive occurrences.
ColoradoAccountant
ColoradoAccountant
2 years ago
Reply to  Jojo
Only if you and your family are left standing, and you are mostly in cash.
Jojo
Jojo
2 years ago
Of course.
RonJ
RonJ
2 years ago
“…357 more people died from the virus in Germany the last 24 hours.”
Died from the virus, or died because they were denied early treatment with anti-viral drugs? These drugs were blocked, for a vaccine agenda. This has been going on since what, April 2020? The bodies have been piling up like cord wood and no one will do anything to stop it.
357. Stalin said one death is a tragedy, 1,000,000 deaths is a statistic. To the public health agencies, these 357 are just a statistic, since they blocked therapies that could have saved the lives of most of those people.
There is a tremendous conflict of interest going on and it is costing people their health or their life. The very people who are supposed to regulate for the benefit of the public, are captured by those they are supposed to be regulating. That is how an Alzheimer’s drug that doesn’t work, is approved by the FDA, or a drug that failed safety trial- Remdesivir, is part of the PREP Act in-patient Covid-19 protocol. All this faux concern that a very safe drug, Ivermectin will harm people, while ignoring the very real danger that Remdesivir could destroy one’s kidneys and kill them.
Remdesivir is not about saving lives. AZT as treatment for AIDS patients, was not about saving lives. It was about the benefit to a pharmaceutical company.
The public health agencies have misplaced priorities and people are dying because of it.
Felix_Mish
Felix_Mish
2 years ago
Covid is right on schedule. Notice the northern hemisphere is going in to “flu season”?
Siliconguy
Siliconguy
2 years ago
Reply to  Felix_Mish

Flu season is more like people staying indoors due to the weather and spreading whatever viruses are around easily. 

The South gets hit in AC season, the North in heating season. And the Northwest this year got hit in hot and smoky season. The smoke did seem to irritate everyone’s lungs, and that and the heat kept people indoors. 
Felix_Mish
Felix_Mish
2 years ago
Reply to  Siliconguy
The “AC/heating season”, etc. is the usual thinking, far as I know. But some time ago I noticed that reality is stranger.
Like, if cold-indoor living of winter was the driver of the winter high of “flu” (actually, the numbers I see are deaths per week – in a sine-ish wave with the high in Jan/Feb-ish), then you’d expect “flu” (and deaths) to start rising in the Canadian states (those bordering Canada, that is). And then you’d see the “flu” spread south as people go inside. And, yes, you’d see a counter-cyclic thing in the south and southwest as the AC kicks on. And, as spring comes, you’d see the wave recede back to Canada.
But, if there’s a consistent pattern, it’s that a Caribbean flu-barge docks in New Orleans or maybe east Texas in late October-ish, and the flu disembarks and spreads from there. It spreads out to the country in sometimes-smooth, sometimes-jumpy patterns until extra USAians are dying all over the country. Then, with early spring, the wave pulls back to the Texas/Louisiana coast.
My gut feeling: There are fundamental aspects of viral diseases completely unknown to humans.
numike
numike
2 years ago
– many waves
– herd immunity not happening
– waning protection
– endless boosters
– recombination not point mutations creating new scary variants
– epidemiological models with limited usefulness or wrong predictions .
– heterogeneity in several dimensions ( time of year, location , etc..) still resistant to explanation.
-proximal origin
-men more affected than women
numike
numike
2 years ago
Will Omicron make up greater than 1% of U.S. COVID-19 cases by the new year? link to kalshi.com
FromBrussels
FromBrussels
2 years ago
Oooooo  Micron ….WELCOME !, We ll worship you, and feed you,  with new vaccines and endless boosters to make you even more stronger like we did with your venerable  siblings !!
Doug78
Doug78
2 years ago
Reply to  FromBrussels
You do not understand. It is O’Micron which means it is Irish. 
Maximus_Minimus
Maximus_Minimus
2 years ago
Reply to  Doug78
No. It’s Macron, which again is French for macaroni.
Doug78
Doug78
2 years ago
Wrong. Macron is French for really tiny.
Blurtman
Blurtman
2 years ago
It’s reminiscent of the 2018 flu epidemic when ICU’s were overburdened, hospitals were treating patients in tents, everyone had to mask up and the entire country went into total lockdown. Except that masking and lockdowns never happened.
Steve_R
Steve_R
2 years ago
Biden asked for lower oil prices, looks like he got them, I thought GS was short
Scooot
Scooot
2 years ago
Reply to  Steve_R
He can replenish his reserves at lower prices -:) 
Jmurr
Jmurr
2 years ago
Reply to  Steve_R
Total manipulation. 
Eddie_T
Eddie_T
2 years ago
The new variant is a cause for concern for more than markets….we’re not out of the COVID woods yet. But boy am I ever tired of COVID.
But….I took the opportunity to add to many of my favorite positions today in energy. Uranium took a big hit. Oil & gas took a big hit. Miners took a big hit. Mostly I made small adds, but I did add a larger piece to SBSW, one of my favorite miners. They are a producer of gold, platinum, palladium, rhodium, nickel, and copper. And they pay a dividend. They’re a South African company, so they got gobsmacked today.
What weathered the storm great TODAY ? Carbon credits were actually green…also midstream US pipeline companies were not seriously affected.
Also, fwiw, the income ETF’s that track the NASDAQ 100 and the S&P using options strategies, NUSI and JEPI, barely moved today. I’ll be watching for delayed effects.
My portfolio was down 5.68% (mostly due to uranium which is volatile and was already in a pullback)  …but my timeline is such that I still view this as a fortunate chance to build long term positions in companies that have a claim on tangible energy assets and other commodities.
Scooot
Scooot
2 years ago
Reply to  Eddie_T
“But boy am I ever tired of COVID.”
Yeah it’s very wearing, never knowing what’s around the corner.
Doug78
Doug78
2 years ago
Reply to  Eddie_T
Myself
I am looking for buy points but not buying yet. My animal spirits are still in
the lair waiting for the moment to slink out and strike. It will be soon I
believe. The primal hunger for sinking my fangs into a prime hunk of
undervalued assets is building.  
The markets are still covid-shy. 
Scooot
Scooot
2 years ago
Reply to  Doug78
It’ll be interesting to see if the buy the dippers turn it around yet again, I’d guess most expect they will. I’d got the impression many are already fully invested with not much room to top up though. 
Siliconguy
Siliconguy
2 years ago
Reply to  Scooot
Do more people rebalance at the end of the year, or after New Years?
Is there anyone able to find a tax loss to harvest? With all the Fed Bucks flying around I have my doubts. 
Scooot
Scooot
2 years ago
Reply to  Siliconguy
I don’t know, the UK tax year ends 5th April, so a while from now.
FromBrussels
FromBrussels
2 years ago
Reply to  Doug78
‘markets are still covid shy’ ….Last time I had a look(yesterday) I saw mostly all time highs …  
Doug78
Doug78
2 years ago
Reply to  FromBrussels
Yesterday is yesterday.
Eddie_T
Eddie_T
2 years ago
Reply to  Doug78
1000 point Dow drop is all I need for a buy signal. I’m so weak that way.
Doug78
Doug78
2 years ago
Reply to  Eddie_T
You might be right. In any case if you are early you will still make out in the end. We are not going into a multiyear bear market.
Scooot
Scooot
2 years ago
Reply to  Eddie_T
Looking on the bleak side, an interesting article here which is worth a read.
Eddie_T
Eddie_T
2 years ago
Reply to  Scooot
I certainly could be very wrong, but the sell-off today, especially in the energy sector, reeks of manipulation. All the usual things were in place. A post holiday very light market day. A “COVID black swan” that really isn’t a black swan. Oil and uranium both dropping into a DCL after a weak couple of weeks. 
I lean more toward this piece from the Tyler Durdens:  link to zerohedge.com
Scooot
Scooot
2 years ago
Reply to  Eddie_T
My first thought after reading that was Goldmans were trying to rationalise the degree of the oil price move with fundamentals to conclude it had moved too much. However this presumes the price was fair before the move which may or may not be right. Either way they were caught off guard.
I do agree the timing was a bit of a lucky coincidence as far oil is concerned because we know the western authorities wanted lower prices. However they would’ve also known the new variant news would’ve also upset other markets.
FromBrussels
FromBrussels
2 years ago
Reply to  Eddie_T
SBSW ? thanks for the tip  Dividend ? Withholding tax ? 
Eddie_T
Eddie_T
2 years ago
Reply to  FromBrussels
I have not collected a dividend from SBSW as of yet. My understanding is that they pay out in a similar way to MLP’s which are tax advantaged in the US because some of the pay-out is considered return of capital and is therefore taxed as capital gains. Not advice, do your own DD, of course. 
Fwiw, some people HATE MLP’s because they make for difficult tax accounting. But I only know about US taxes. In general, if you’re a high income earner, the tax deferment is worth a little extra tax accounting. imho.
Maximus_Minimus
Maximus_Minimus
2 years ago
Reply to  Eddie_T
You cannot loose on BTFD because stocks are now supported by printer Powell (or electron Powell?).
There is no way the oligarchy can let the market fall, their lives literally depend on it, and that’s not a good omen.
Scooot
Scooot
2 years ago
If the Dow finished 2021 at say 31,500 it would still be up over 10% for the year, which is quite a good year, just an observation, not a forecast -:) 
Scooot
Scooot
2 years ago
Reply to  Scooot
Whoops got that wrong sorry, ignore me.
Doug78
Doug78
2 years ago
Keep an eye on hospitalizations there. Judging from the speed of reproduction of the new variante we should be able to see its lethality rate fairly soon. The official name of it is now Omicron which sounds rather ominous if you ask me.
Jojo
Jojo
2 years ago
Reply to  Doug78
I thought they agreed to use Greek letters as names?  Omicron sounds like an evil something from Marvel.
Doug78
Doug78
2 years ago
Reply to  Jojo
Omicron sounds better than Oh Sh_t.
IB6
IB6
2 years ago
Reply to  Doug78
I wonder why they skipped Xi, which is Greek letter before omicron…
Doug78
Doug78
2 years ago
Reply to  IB6
You’re right. I didn’t think of that. It should be Xi, not Omicron and much more appropriate. 
amigator
amigator
2 years ago
Reply to  IB6
It was already taken by a virus in China death toll unknown (national secrete). 
Jojo
Jojo
2 years ago
Reply to  IB6
Because China’s President Xi would be royally pissed!
Jojo
Jojo
2 years ago
Reply to  Doug78
I’m dumb when it comes to Greek alphabet.  I did not know that Omicron was one of the Greek letters.  So sorry…
Scooot
Scooot
2 years ago
I’d say it was definitely the the new variant that triggered it. I was watching the decline get going last night shortly after the reports of Sajid Javid’s comments and other scientists were reported by the BBC. They seemed pretty scary. 

Stay Informed

Subscribe to MishTalk

You will receive all messages from this feed and they will be delivered by email.