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Stocks Down Five Straight Weeks, US Oil Tops $100, Huge Republican Infighting

Weekly summary: Dow and Nasdaq in correction, bond yields up, $WTIC settles near $100.

Friday Recap

  • Dow drops 916 and enters correction
  • Nasdaq falls 460 after correction
  • S&P 5th straight losing week
  • 3–year long bond yield on verge of busting 5.0 percent
  • Oil closes highest level since 2022, topped $100, settled just below
  • Gasoline prices up $1 from a month ago.
  • House GOP rejects Senate DHS Bill
  • Strait of Hormuz still closed -Tomorrow = 1 month since Iran War began

Meanwhile

Golden Age Is Upon Us

Cuba Is Next

Important Announcement

Trump Top 10 Statements Yesterday

  1. We will not negotiate. Of course they’re negotiating, [Mish: How is that logically possible?] Who wouldn’t negotiate?
  2. Now, before this started, the Dow hit 50,000. The S&P hit 7,000. Both of those achievements were not achievable. [Mish: Now that’s an amusing revelation]
  3. We’re building an arc, a triumphal arc, which will be incredible for the city, incredible.
  4. We love the farmers. We gave them $12 billion and they’re extremely happy.
  5. See, I’m a gold person. It’s all real stuff. You can’t imitate it. Someday, they’ll discover a paint that will look like gold and the guy’s going to be the richest man in the world.
  6. I love the government like I love myself economically.
  7. He was shocked, the head of Sharpie gets a call. So, for $5 — it could be zero — but for $5 I get a much better pen than for $1,000. And I can hand them out and actually they become hot as a pistol.
  8. You know, I settled eight wars, and many of them, I think were more difficult than this one.
  9. I mean, I read a story today that I’m desperate to make a deal. I’m not — I don’t — if I was desperate, he’d be the first to know.
  10. We have done an amazing job. I had to do a little stopover; I call it an excursion.

Yes, those statements were all made in a single day, yesterday.

Here’s a bonus eleventh.

“And my predictions have been right. Trump was right about everything.”

For discussion of the above comments, please see What Happened at Trump’s Insane Iran War Cabinet Meeting Yesterday?

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Mish

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128 Comments
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Oldest Most Voted
realityczech
realityczech
3 months ago

Infighting should be the norm in political parties instead of the lockstep obedience we see in the other duopoly.

Is that too honest an assessment? Probably.

randocalrissian
randocalrissian
4 months ago

#5: Better tell them there is no gold paint so they can’t figure out I painted these $25 tchotchkies from Lowes and Home Depot that I hung all over the Oval Office. Nice try, Tangerine Terrorist.

TEF
TEF
4 months ago

The peak valuations in 1929 and 2026 were caused by terminal cycle extreme overvaluation accelerated by bad debt creation (e.g. 1929 10% margin and e.g. 2026 KKR et.al private fund bad investment in frothy equities. In 1929 there was an initial cascading nonlinear unraveling in the 11/26/27 day :: y/2.5y/2.5y incipient 3-phase Lammert fractal crash decay series.

2026 is different. Most (about 80%) of the 850 trillion derivatives are invested in interest rate hedge bets. With the inevitable bad credit/loan collapse, those hedges would have predicted lowered interest rates. Enter the Israeli-Trump war; the closure of Hormuz; the global sharp price rise in oil, LNG, and hydrocarbon byproducts (including fertilizer); the resulting inflation; and the held US sovereign debt selling pressure (for country’s dependent on imported energy and fertilizer). This sans-strategy and sans-big-picture war has resulted in rising interest rates, exactly opposite of the the derivatives’ hedge investment bets.

With the 600-650 trillion dollar upside down interest rate derivative bets, the incipient 2026 crash devaluation will be more severe than 1929.

Six000MileYear
Six000MileYear
4 months ago
Reply to  TEF

It’s amazing so many “professionals” placing derivative bets on interest rates are so ignorant of the Kontratiev Cycle. It’s been 60+/-1 years duration going back to the late 1790’s. This cycle is 75% complete, with the strongest interest rates increases (like in the late 1960’s to 1981) to take place. When $600T blows up, pennies will be minted again. The deflation will be tremendous.

rjohonson
rjohonson
4 months ago

no worries. Gavin is in the wings to destroy what’s left of us.

LM2020
LM2020
4 months ago
Reply to  rjohonson

By the time Trump and his gang of child diddlers is done there will be nothing left to destroy.

njbr
njbr
4 months ago

Is this winning? We end the war and the US admin is worried that Iran will have installed the Tehran toll-booth on the Strait.

Isn’t this a direct admission of US impotence on one of the key issues that this war was supposedly about?

Now, an even more pissed off Iran with a hand on the throat of the economy…

Is he calling for even more war???

Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Friday warned European allies that Iran could set up a “tolling system” in the Strait of Hormuz after the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran ends…
“I did describe to our allies, however, that immediately after this thing ends, and we’re done with our objectives, the immediate challenge we’re going to face is an Iran that may decide that they want to set up a tolling system in the Strait of Hormuz ,” he said. “Not only is this illegal, it’s unacceptable, it’s dangerous for the world. And it’s important that the world have a plan to confront it.”

You name it
You name it
4 months ago
Reply to  njbr

….while the mad dog is doing his best to make sure the whole planet receives a sound dosis of plutonium for the next 100.000 years – if containments are damaged and ceramic uranium dioxide fuel pellets are hit..

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/russia-warns-situation-bushehr-nuclear-plant-deteriorating-after-3rd-airstrike-ten

You name it
You name it
4 months ago
Reply to  njbr

And as long as this doesn’t happen – and it won’t – the crisis will get worse

https://www.theamericanconservative.com/to-end-the-iran-war-trump-must-divorce-israel/

Quatloo
Quatloo
4 months ago

PapaDave or anyone else who knows, how would the Houthis closing the Bab al-Mandab Strait affect the world economy?

Do you think logistically they would be able to keep it closed?

Last edited 4 months ago by Quatloo
njbr
njbr
4 months ago
Reply to  Quatloo

How many ships were needed to be hit in the Gulf to “shut down” shipping in the Gulf?

Not very many

Minimal targeting results in big impact

Shipping is still way lower in the Red Sea than before the previous Houthi attack on 4, yes only 4 ships last year

So yes, easy to effectively close it down with minimal attacks and no outreach from Iran or Houthi’s for resuming right of transit

Quatloo
Quatloo
4 months ago
Reply to  njbr

It looks like ultimately ships could get through the Suez Canal, so not a complete shutdown like Hormuz.

Which makes me wonder about the effect on the economy of closing the strait.

Last edited 4 months ago by Quatloo
Sentient
Sentient
4 months ago
Reply to  Quatloo

Most tankers can’t fit through the Suez Canal. The Saudi plan is to sail south. Honestly, who doesn’t like the Houthis?

Quatloo
Quatloo
4 months ago
Reply to  Sentient

Hard not to admire the Houthis’ courage and willingness to fight for what they believe in

todde
todde
4 months ago
Reply to  Quatloo

1. longer and more expensive shipping lanes.

2. Yes. we went to war with them for 2 months just last year and had to walk away with an indecisive outcome. the Houtis dont need to sink every ship that passes thru the Strait, the threat will be enough to divert shipping.

todde
todde
4 months ago

you see, right about now is when Trump usually declares bankruptcy .

Phil in CT
Phil in CT
4 months ago
Reply to  todde

Underrated comment. Accurate. Amazing that people voted for this. No explaining stupid.

Wild Bill
Wild Bill
4 months ago

George Carlin said it long ago. There is no need for a formal conspiracy. All these corporate executives that have BOUGHT congress have the same objectives. There is no need for them to get together, they came from the same “elite” universities, belong to the same fraternities/sororities, serve on the same boards and have the same objectives. The concentration of wealth and real assets continues, and will continue unabated. Hedge accordingly.

Joe Penny
Joe Penny
4 months ago
Reply to  Wild Bill

“Thunder Rock is across the street from the Dwight-Englewood School, a fancy private academy whose graduates include celebrity chef Anthony Bourdain, actress Brooke Shields, and former secretary of state George Schultz. Mehmet Öz, the Turkish-American celebrity doctor known professionally as Dr Oz, who currently running for US Senate, also sent his children there.”

https://www.jordannews.jo/Section-121/Travel/Gaddafi-s-New-Jersey-mansion-18424

Get a load of some of the names in the article…wowza

To wit:

“Gaddafi’s entourage ended up renting a much bigger estate in Westchester County, across the Hudson River from Englewood. (Hillary Clinton lives in the same county.) News crews gawked as workers unfurled a huge tent decorated with camels and palm trees. Just as in Englewood, local authorities ordered the Libyan delegation to stop the construction work.

Authorities also appealed to the owner of the property: real estate mogul Donald J. Trump.”

Last edited 4 months ago by Joe Penny
most of you voted for the uniparty all your lives
most of you voted for the uniparty all your lives
4 months ago

From another blog.

When Donald Trump speaks of a “10-day pause” before any strike on Iran’s infrastructure, he is not merely putting a number on the calendar. In the logic of war, time can matter as much as firepower. Properly understood, these 10 days are neither a clear sign of peace nor necessarily evidence of retreat. They look more like a deliberate pause—one that may serve simultaneously to reorganise the battlefield, shape the narrative, and perhaps prepare a less costly exit from a war that has not unfolded the way Washington had hoped.

On the surface, invoking negotiations always carries the appearance of restraint. Even when there is no serious intent to reach an agreement, merely placing “diplomacy” on the table serves an important purpose for Washington: it creates the impression that the diplomatic option was tried.

This is a familiar pattern in U.S. foreign policy. Negotiations are not always pursued to secure a deal; sometimes they are meant to ensure that if the next blow is struck, no one can say there was another path left unexplored. In that sense, the 10-day window may be less a genuine opening for talks than a political shield before the next move—a way to reduce the international cost of military action.

These 10 days could serve several military purposes at once:

assessing the actual level of damage inflicted and identifying which targets may require a second strike;
repositioning naval and air assets involved in the campaign;
moving equipment and closing operational gaps;
and re-coordinating with allied or proxy forces

These 10 days should also be read through the lens of the U.S.-Israel relationship. On the surface, both are in the same camp. In practice, however, they do not always fight according to the same logic.

Israel typically seeks rapid, hard, and maximalist blows; the United States, by contrast, must think beyond the battlefield: energy markets, domestic political costs, potential casualties, regional spillover, and the risk of being dragged into a prolonged war.

That is why any pause is not necessarily only a message to Iran; at times, it is also a message to Tel Aviv.

A message suggesting that Washington may no longer be willing to absorb unlimited costs for a war whose returns, for itself, are increasingly unclear.

If that reading is correct, then this pause is not just the space between two strikes. It may also signal that the U.S. and Israel are no longer standing at exactly the same point in this war.

These 10 days also matter inside the United States:

the media is given time to absorb and reproduce the preferred framing;
the Republican political base has space to align itself behind any coming decision;
opponents are allowed to exhaust the initial burst of reaction;
and the White House gains time to package whatever comes next in a more disciplined form.

In other words, this pause is not only for the outside world.Part of it is for managing the domestic front—so that if a strike is coming, the language that justifies it is already in place.

In the end, Trump’s 10-day pause should not be read simplistically. It is neither necessarily a sign of retreat nor, by itself, evidence that the crisis is winding down. More plausibly, it is a multi-purpose pause:

one designed to build political legitimacy, reset military positioning, manage fractures inside the alliance, shape public perception, and perhaps most importantly, prepare an “exit without openly admitting defeat.”

And that is precisely why the number 10 matters: not as a deadline, but as part of the operation itself.
–WANA
Iran understands all this, so it will not stop striking Israel, the US assets in the Middle East. Hezbollah is continuing attacking Israel, and it is Israel retreating. The Houthis just joined the exercise.

…from another blog.

most of you voted for the uniparty all your lives
most of you voted for the uniparty all your lives
4 months ago

Mish, I first tried posting the link alone, in a separate comment. That comment system bans the source. Does the system shadowban it or does the system display it in your queue for moderation?

njbr
njbr
4 months ago

10 days…

what if is his senile old mind thinking that within 10 days somehow this (boring) war falls out of the news and somehow resolves itself and he can move back to his usual attention-seeking BS

meanwhile the economy is being driven further into the rocks and the military geniuses are escalating attacks without considering responses

In 10 more days the economy will have broken

and poor ol Donald will still be bored

’Lil Mr.
’Lil Mr.
4 months ago

For 10 days he may be reconsolidating his positions in the markets…

Sy_Tuck
Sy_Tuck
4 months ago

This article gives too much credit IMHO.

I think Trump shot his mouth off with the “bomb the power grid” threat and the real brains in the room said no.

Now he’s pushed the date forward and made all kinds of nonsensical “negotiation” announcements because:
A) he’s looking to back down without saying it was a stupid call.
B) he believes the gulf will be open in ten days.

Joe Penny
Joe Penny
4 months ago

Wait….just wait….until the goyim begin opening their March 2026 401K 201K statements.

Sentient
Sentient
4 months ago
Reply to  Joe Penny

Wait til they see their 9/30/26 statements.

Last edited 4 months ago by Sentient
Albert
Albert
4 months ago

Those 10 statements should be put on Trump’s triumphal arch. On the bright side, Americans finally get a sense of what life must be like in North Korea.

most of you voted for the uniparty all your lives
most of you voted for the uniparty all your lives
4 months ago
Reply to  Albert

Did you ever watch that “North Korea propaganda” video skewering our culture that went viral around 15 years ago?

I bet NK leaders are more competent and more humane than ours. At the very least, we should stop presuming we know anything about anyone else if our only “sources” have been Oceania media.

Still…+1

JCH1952
JCH1952
4 months ago

Imagine you’re in a private school where your Dad paid for your grades by paying for the football stadium, and you’re 6’3″ and you claim you’re endowed, and every time you pick on a nerd, you get the holy shit kicked out of you. And somehow 39% of the teachers still think you’re great.

I’m back robbyrob
I’m back robbyrob
4 months ago

The Next Financial Shock to Come From Trump’s War With IranAmerica’s current credit rating masks a fatal contradiction, and a downgrade is the only honest assessment of an empire in decline.
https://newrepublic.com/article/208170/trump-war-iran-credit-rating

You name it
You name it
4 months ago

Good article.

“AA ratings banking on the assumption that American military power will guarantee both global economic stability and the dollar hegemony required for the United States to service its debts, in perpetuity”

Well that illusion is certainly falling to pieces really fast. Satanyahu certainly doing a fantastic job for his dark Astral lords

Stu
Stu
4 months ago

So we reached $100 oil. With the energy / Oil issues, that’s pretty cheap I would say. Heck it was $119.50 just a few weeks ago, and nary a word… Oh, we “considered steps” to ease concerns. That was it, and here we are down to $100. Hmm… let’s not get all hyperbolic over a significant drop, but also let’s not fret about cheaper oil today, then it was only weeks ago!!!

Don’t even get me started on stocks, which have been in a seesaw level for a long time now. With Inflation an issue, and lots more going on, it’s a given right now that they will fluctuate up and down and in big percentages at times.

Look at Gold, Silver, etc. it’s all a giant mess, and they both and others will come crashing down soon enough as well. Everything is going down before it eventually goes back up. It’s normal behavior, reacting to disrupted markets, tight money, and a BS Media, hair on fire reporting to hurt the opposing party…

This IS after all, the game we call life!!!

Kevin W
Kevin W
4 months ago
Reply to  Stu

You may be confusing Brent crude at $119, vs WTI crude which just hit $100

JCH1952
JCH1952
4 months ago
Reply to  Kevin W

That, and around 10,000 other confused things.

Stu
Stu
4 months ago
Reply to  JCH1952

10K, really…

radar
radar
4 months ago
Reply to  Kevin W

WTI actually went that high for a moment and was then beat down.

Stu
Stu
4 months ago
Reply to  radar

High 80’s I believe.

Stu
Stu
4 months ago
Reply to  Kevin W

They generally track around the same, except in disruptive times like at the moment. So you are correct, my bad.
They were both expected to be around $55 – $60 in 2026 for a benchmark, according to initial forecast. If disruptive times persist it could stay more lopsided as you point out, my guess is that won’t happen, and this will all get resolved one way or another, as too many Countries are going to be affected at some point.

Phil in CT
Phil in CT
4 months ago
Reply to  Kevin W

You may be confusing

Indeed, confused and confusing. I always feel claustrophobic and like I actually lost ground intellectually when try to follow Stump’s posts.

Last edited 4 months ago by Phil in CT
Joe Penny
Joe Penny
4 months ago
Reply to  Stu

You are not a smart man

Stu
Stu
4 months ago
Reply to  Joe Penny

I guess it depends… About what? I am brilliant in some areas, and got paid very well and retired early as a result. I suck at dancing, hockey, and many others. I am an excellent golfer! Great at Football, and was a U.S. Ranked Foosball Player in my 20’s. Pretty good driver, and love to walk too. Hated Trigonometry, but got an A+ in Algebra, so go figure…

What are you good or great at, and you must suck at something if you’re human? Just curious…

Quatloo
Quatloo
4 months ago
Reply to  Stu

Don’t sell yourself short. You excel at parroting Israeli propaganda.

Stu
Stu
4 months ago
Reply to  Quatloo

Not Israeli, so no need or desire to do so? Have not been, and no desire to do so either. You?

Sentient
Sentient
4 months ago
Reply to  Stu

Stu, Thats normalcy bias. Oil and gas price increases have been constrained by releases from multiple countries’ strategic reserves and by the amount of fuel that’s been en route across the seas. Global gas production in particular has already been reduced for years by 20% with strikes on Iran and Qatar. Similar long term reductions exist in hydrogen, sulfuric acid and urea. These affect chip manufacturing and agriculture worldwide. China and Russia have already implemented temporary export bans on fertilizer products.

alx
alx
4 months ago
Reply to  Stu

Look at Gold, Silver, etc. it’s all a giant mess, and they both and others will come crashing down soon enough as well.
====

what crushing, what mess, moron?

gold trade as start of 2026 4500*4600, after growing gods knows what in 2026
just pull up 2*5 years gold chart, or better USA debt chart

you are something of moron who can;t open simple chart?

=======

do not you moron understand simple fact that USA gov in 2026 is going to collect $5 trl in taxes, and PRINT $3 -3.5 TRLN MORE?

jesus!!

Stu
Stu
4 months ago
Reply to  alx

I follow gold very closely and my observation and prediction, is that a massive crash (2,500?) is coming. Too much profit sitting there, and as a result it will be taken in large chunks, and it will appear to occur all at once. The only way for many to pull large profit out, without losing a chunk of it. This is and will again, be coordinated, as it continues to be since the peg was removed. Keep watching as it’s coming soon (May/June?). Let me know when I’m right, or wrong…

most of you voted for the uniparty all your lives
most of you voted for the uniparty all your lives
4 months ago
Reply to  alx

But the 10% tariffs will cut the budget deficit and the IRS.

Christoball
Christoball
4 months ago

Global markets have lost 11.5 trillion in market cap since Israel and the US launched a war against Iran. I would say that Iran is winning the war. In contrast Pedophilia raised the DOW to over 50,000. What a sick equities market the US is endowed with.

Joe Penny
Joe Penny
4 months ago
Reply to  Christoball

Inflation raised the Dow to 50,000

CJW
CJW
4 months ago

Are Americans proud of this?

Frosty
Frosty
4 months ago
Reply to  CJW

This one is not! I am appalled by this schoolyard bully that the far right Republicans enabled to destroy our nations credibility, finances and position as benevolent leader of the free world.

Jon L
Jon L
4 months ago
Reply to  CJW

Yes, just under 40%. Appaling.

most of you voted for the uniparty all your lives
most of you voted for the uniparty all your lives
4 months ago
Reply to  Jon L

Explained partly by geriatrics and dumb people.

Partly by lying about the poll in order to gaslight us into thinking “other people accept this” so “I must accept that it’s accepted by many others”.

Casual Observer
Casual Observer
4 months ago

Iran is just getting started. They weathered the first storm. Missiles incoming to Saudi Arabia and Israel from Yemen. The window for the US to exit isnt here yet. It is gonna be a quagmire until June. Expect US soldiers to get paraded on middle Eastern TV. Trump may well launch a nuclear weapon at Iran but I would expect Russia to shoot one as well.

Joe Penny
Joe Penny
4 months ago

Yeah, I hear that we wiped out 90% of their missiles, and somehow they still have 70% remaining

Quatloo
Quatloo
4 months ago
Reply to  Joe Penny

The reality is we likely destroyed only about 1/3 of Iran’s missiles.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/28/us-destroyed-third-iran-missiles-intelligence-suggests-trump

most of you voted for the uniparty all your lives
most of you voted for the uniparty all your lives
4 months ago
Reply to  Quatloo

That includes the missiles Trump “wiped out” using radar, fuel depots, the Gerald Ford laundry room, and other such missile interceptors.

Sy_Tuck
Sy_Tuck
4 months ago

“Wait! You haven’t seen my final form”

This isnt anime. If Iran had anything to start it would have started before all their leaders were killed and bases destroyed (and US reinforcements arrived), not after.

njbr
njbr
4 months ago

it didn’t turn out as fun and exciting as he thought…

“[Trump] is getting a little bored with Iran,” the official said. “Not that he regrets it or something — he’s just bored and wants to move on.”

A second White House official who was granted anonymity for the same reason said that Trump has begun to “move on” from the conflict and has started shifting conversations and personal focus toward the economy, domestic issues and the upcoming midterm elections. 

The White House’s public communications have suggested a similar detachment, presenting the conflict less as an ongoing war with human lives at stake and more as a cultural moment that generates online content.

njbr
njbr
4 months ago
Reply to  njbr

By this Trump has revealed his pathological need to be the constant center of attention via a blizzard of bullshit…

which led to the biggest “look at me” which is a real war started randomly by him with real missiles and real explosions and real dead people…

…and it’s bugging him because it drowns out his next attention-getting spurt of BS…

…it’s so boring,…

…and really, how do you top the destruction of the US reputation and the knee-capping of the world economy?

K.V.Sadasivan
K.V.Sadasivan
4 months ago
Reply to  njbr

Especially, US’ Gulf Allies have paid a heavy price.The World too by way of supply side problems

Rogerroger
Rogerroger
4 months ago
Reply to  njbr

Worked for a guy like trump one time. Hard to put into words. Its a technique to keep the incompetent graft going Were so caught up in the day to day ( can you believe this) that we fail to notice to things we would normally be concerned with.
Say the doge bro running off with all the ss info of every American.

Feral Finster
Feral Finster
4 months ago
Reply to  njbr

Being a bully isn’t nearly as much fun when your victim fights back.

Sentient
Sentient
4 months ago
Reply to  njbr

Satanyahu won’t let Trump get bored with Iran.

You name it
You name it
4 months ago
Reply to  Sentient

MAGA = Miriam Adelson Governs America

MPO45v2
MPO45v2
4 months ago

Breaking: Qatar announces it is “withdrawing” from the war. Is that code for making nice with Iran?

By the time Trump leaves office, the entire middle east may become an Islamic Republic with nuclear weapons.

https://www.reddit.com/r/DeepMarketScan/comments/1s5h12y/breaking_qatar_withdraws_from_the_war_iran_has

Do worry, Trump will find a way to make things even worse.™ 

Sentient
Sentient
4 months ago
Reply to  MPO45v2

Israel would have to start playing nice.

alx
alx
4 months ago
Reply to  MPO45v2

=atar announces it is “withdrawing” from the war.

they never were in war

it is 10.000 sq km size , and 3 mil people COUNTRY
half of from india/etc who actually WORKS..

IT IS JOKE. TRIBE LIKE COUNTRY

Rogerroger
Rogerroger
4 months ago
Reply to  alx

Thats the problem. When gb colonized the region they did not divide the region by religion or culture. Probably to keep them from uniting and rising up.

K.V.Sadasivan
K.V.Sadasivan
4 months ago
Reply to  MPO45v2

Forget the Islamic Republic.Global economy and trade are already shattered to the extent Gulf Nations have started selling their Gold.

SleemoG
SleemoG
4 months ago

Pam Bondi called the market top during the Epstein hearings.

Frosty
Frosty
4 months ago
Reply to  SleemoG

Does a lower DOW allow the Epstein victims to seek justice?

PreCambrian
PreCambrian
4 months ago

We need to redo those Dos Equis commercials for “the most ignorant man in the world”.

Six000MileYear
Six000MileYear
4 months ago

The US, along with the DAX, CAC40, Shanghai, Hong Kong, and India’s Nifty50 are trading below their 200 day moving averages. The London FTSE is not too far behind since it testing its 200 DMA.

The Nikkei is about half way to its 200 DMA, but don’t let that fool you. It has been in a hockey stick motive wave since the end of 2008, with wave 5 of Wave 5 extending. The French CAC40 is also in a bad technical situation, which completed an ending diagonal that started from the depths of the COVID selloff. Both these patterns are typically followed by a sudden reversal, retracing about 90% of the advance. In other words: CRASH!

I don’t see how one major index, let alone TWO, crash without taking the rest of the markets with them.

MPO45v2
MPO45v2
4 months ago
Reply to  Six000MileYear

The damage to oil infrastructure is a done deal. Even if all hostilities, bombing and destruction stopped right now, the damage is done and it will take YEARS to fix so expect high oil prices for a long time (as in years).

High energy prices = broke people. Throw in labor constraints, stupid tariffs, and other Trump nonsense and it’s a miracle stocks haven’t crashed further yet but they will.

K.V.Sadasivan
K.V.Sadasivan
4 months ago
Reply to  MPO45v2

And even US’ allies will not trust US weapons,from now on.

Feral Finster
Feral Finster
4 months ago
Reply to  MPO45v2

Not to mention that marine insurance will not instantly reprice, nor go back to pre-war prices.

Insurance for transit through the Red Sea has never returned to pre-2023 prices.

Last edited 4 months ago by Feral Finster
El Trumpedo
El Trumpedo
4 months ago

“I hang out with losers because it makes me feel better. I hate guys that are very, very successful and you have to listen to their success stories. I like people that like to listen to my success.” – Donald J Trumpstien
Top men.

'Lil Mr.
'Lil Mr.
4 months ago

One of my favorite videos: yanking off 2 dudes at one time!!! It’s the right song and everything! I’ll take dyslexia over narcissitic dementia anytime…

john
john
4 months ago

Back in 1977, President Jimmy Carter rose in the banquet hall of Tehran’s Palace to toast the deep bonds between the U.S. and Iran. But after this celebration the U.S. became hostile and has now managed to successfully push Iran into deep bonds with Russia and mighty China. America is surely reaping what it sowed.

Last edited 4 months ago by john
Suzie Alcatrez
Suzie Alcatrez
4 months ago
Reply to  john

You might read up on the Iran Hostage Crisis.

john
john
4 months ago
Reply to  Suzie Alcatrez

You might want to read what the CIA did in Iran before the hostage crisis? CIA only admitted in 2023 that they installed the Shah who was a brutal dictator loyal to America instead of Irainians? https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/in-first-cia-acknowledges-1953-coup-it-backed-to-overthrow-leader-of-iran-was-undemocratic

Last edited 4 months ago by john
Fubar111111
Fubar111111
4 months ago
Reply to  Suzie Alcatrez

You might read up on the entire sorry hostory of US intervention in Iran, but facts are of course out of bounds for most Americans

Limey
Limey
4 months ago
Reply to  Fubar111111

You might want to read up on every American ‘expedition’ post WW2 where the hand of the CIA was involved, and probably us too.

Quatloo
Quatloo
4 months ago
Reply to  Limey

Yes, the 1953 coup in Iran was jointly engineered by the CIA and British Intelligence

'Lil Mr.
'Lil Mr.
4 months ago
Reply to  john

I don’t think Carter wanted to take the Shaw but his advisors convinced him to let him in for cancer treatment.

Peace
Peace
4 months ago
Reply to  john

“There are no permanent friends or enemies, only permanent interests”

Stu
Stu
4 months ago
Reply to  john

China–Iran relations refer to the bilateral relations between the People’s Republic of China and Iran. The relationship between the two civilizations is one of the oldest continuous contacts in history, stretching back more than 2,500 years.

I’m back robbyrob
I’m back robbyrob
4 months ago

Iran Just Hacked the FBI Director’s Emailhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AlM0vylK_r8

most of you voted for the uniparty all your lives
most of you voted for the uniparty all your lives
4 months ago

Did Iran claim responsibility? If not, bet on some other explanation.

Sorry I didn’t check or watch the video. I generally avoid most compromised platforms.

Last edited 4 months ago by most of you voted for the uniparty all your lives
CaptainCaveman
CaptainCaveman
4 months ago

I’m going to be a no good dirty bear until all four of the economic horsemen have shown up and done significant damage. 1. The Iran war and the resulting energy pinch. 2. Private Credit unwind. 3. The AI bubble unwind. 4. Housing, which is still 25-40% too expensive to “pencil” for anyone. I am not sure where commercial real estate falls into that list, but we’ve been hearing about that one for years now and nothing ever materialized.

EJ Yoerger
EJ Yoerger
4 months ago

Let’s see. Wasn’t it Obama that said Joe Biden was on the wrong side of every international decision. Eerie, how history is repeating itself with Trump! Biden must be feeling pretty good by now!

I’m back robbyrob
I’m back robbyrob
4 months ago

President Donald Trump made a wildly condescending admission about the sort of people he likes to surround himself with during an event in Miami shortly after the signing of his executive order to move money around to pay Transportation Security Administration officials in the absence of a congressional deal to reopen the Department of Homeland Security.
“I hang out with losers because it makes me feel better,” said Trump. “I hate guys that are very, very successful and you have to listen to their success stories. I like people that like to listen to my success.”

Rogerroger
Rogerroger
4 months ago

Maybe that is why he has a weird obsession with Obama. Obama care trump rx / peace prize obsession. Take the iran nuclear deal. By all accounts they were following the rules. And he ripped it up only to sign basically the same agreement.

Tony Frank
Tony Frank
4 months ago

Hopefully, sooner than later, this too shall pass. Unfortunately, a great deal of lasting damage has already been done.

Fubar111111
Fubar111111
4 months ago
Reply to  Tony Frank

Can the USA or the world survive another 3 months of Trump, never mind another 3 years?

I’d say probably not

Jackula
Jackula
4 months ago

One of these days the Republicans in congress are gonna wake up and roll this guy outta office either by impeachment or the 25th amendment

Sentient
Sentient
4 months ago
Reply to  Jackula

Only if gasoline goes up by another $3.50 a gallon. Which it will before the election. Then the democrat-run House will impeach. 25th is a real difficult way to remove.

whirlaway
whirlaway
4 months ago
Reply to  Jackula

Well, the 25th is possible if the Cabinet is not nuts and only the President is. But here, it looks like everyone in the Cabinet is nuts as well – maybe to a somewhat lesser degree, but definitely crazy.

Sentient
Sentient
4 months ago
Reply to  whirlaway

Ultimately the 25th requires 2/3 majorities in both houses to agree – or the president (Trump) returns to power. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-fifth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution#Section_4:_Declaration_by_vice_president_and_cabinet_members_of_president's_inability

Rogerroger
Rogerroger
4 months ago
Reply to  Jackula

Nah they are just gonna push the election fraud / gerrymander thing. Those that survive will say they did not agree with him. Most r voters will vote for what we have now over a dirty dem any day.

John H
John H
4 months ago

I would never wish this on anyone, but if someone was to pass away peacefully in their sleep, it may be the best thing that could happen for all of us.

LM2020
LM2020
4 months ago
Reply to  John H

“I have never wished a man dead, but I have read some obituaries with great pleasure.”

Limey
Limey
4 months ago
Reply to  LM2020

He left the world in a better state than he found it. NOT.

'Lil Mr.
'Lil Mr.
4 months ago
Reply to  John H

So far Nostradamus nor the Simpsons have come through yet…

Feral Finster
Feral Finster
4 months ago

Sweet Bastet’s tail…

Sentient
Sentient
4 months ago

I think he’s quite demented. Hegseth has no excuse. He and Miss Lindsey are just bloodthirsty.

Peace
Peace
4 months ago
Reply to  Sentient

Neocons in quagmire.

Its quite nice to watch.
They don’t know what to do.
They don’t know what to say except hysterically mumbling we have won, we have won. They are begging for negotiation.
Haha.

BigBob
BigBob
4 months ago

If you are someone who absolutely hates this country and wants to see it destroyed and in ruins, the Chief Pedophile of the United States is your man.

MPO45v2
MPO45v2
4 months ago

The upcoming economic crash will be brought to you by Trump and the GOP. Remember that at the midterms folks.

If only we had all listened: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rRndMiVIB-w

Do worry, Trump will find a way to make things even worse.™ 

And Mish, we need a musical tribute on Fridays, please. It might earn you a Mishelin award 😉

Last edited 4 months ago by MPO45v2
Sentient
Sentient
4 months ago
Reply to  MPO45v2

No lie detected

Nate
Nate
4 months ago

The US had a scorching economy before the republicans guaranteed they would “fix” the economy.

We just didn’t understand what they meant.

Limey
Limey
4 months ago
Reply to  Nate

They ‘fixed’ it alright, sadly not just in the USA, they spread the love worldwide.
This jackass is going to be ridiculed for decades after this.

Sentient
Sentient
4 months ago
Reply to  Limey

I’ve disagreed with you over Russia, but I wish you guys well in the coming trying times. The UK has given the world many good things. Trump has really lit the world on fire with this war. The ramifications have not yet been comprehended by most Americans.

Naphtali
Naphtali
4 months ago
Reply to  Limey

But, but, but he has the arch of victory coming.

Sentient
Sentient
4 months ago
Reply to  Naphtali

And the Golden Ballroom.

Frosty
Frosty
4 months ago
Reply to  Sentient

Where he can sit on the floor like a spoiled toddler in diapers ~ playing with a loaded machine gun…

Quatloo
Quatloo
4 months ago
Reply to  Sentient

Assume he is arranging for a McDonald’s to be put in the Ballroom?

CaptainCaveman
CaptainCaveman
4 months ago
Reply to  Nate

Biden’s’ economy was all government stimulus, AI/housing bubbles AND the stimulation that comes from unbridled illegal immigration. Not defending traitor Trump, but let’s be real!

Tollsforthee
Tollsforthee
4 months ago
Reply to  CaptainCaveman

I thought illegals depressed the economy by putting citizens out of work and soaking up all kinds of services?

CaptainCaveman
CaptainCaveman
4 months ago
Reply to  Tollsforthee

Well you thought wrong. They depress middle class wages, absolutely, but because they work hard and consume a lot and/or receive so many benefits from Uncle Sam via printed dollars, their net effect to the economy is definitely stimulative.

alx
alx
4 months ago
Reply to  CaptainCaveman

please!!

half of time for last 30*40 years
repubs HAD MAJORITY IN LOWER house and-or senate

THEY DID NOTHING , !
same budget, ,same deficit, same policies

Frosty
Frosty
4 months ago
Reply to  Tollsforthee

Probably unwise to argue with a caveman.

alx
alx
4 months ago
Reply to  Frosty

it is ok in distance.

of course in person he might have huge stick :)))

alx

Rogerroger
Rogerroger
4 months ago
Reply to  Tollsforthee

Complex issue. They also support the economy buying goods and services which are taxed. They also work for lower wages which keep the cost of goods and services down.
If you have to blame anyone i would blame employers who hire illegals and pocket the profits from not paying taxes etc.
they privatize the profits then pass the expense of enforcement and support onto the public ie government.
I am probably one the few people on this site who has lost a job to an immigrant( for lack of a better description ). It took a good Christian businessman talking to his good republican congressman to pull strings to get hb2 visas in a time when congress was restricting them. For whatever reason.

alx
alx
4 months ago
Reply to  CaptainCaveman

=Biden’s’ economy was all government stimulus, AI

bs.

blue/red/ repubs/dems

RIGHT NOW TRUMp runs 2.8 trln gov deficit..
it is highest outside covid (= during again trump)

alx

CaptainCaveman
CaptainCaveman
4 months ago
Reply to  alx

I agree, but if one person is a thief, we’re supposed to reminisce about the guy who may have been a bit less of a thief? Biden was an equally terrible steward in my book, though this war solidifies the throne for Trump..

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