The Census Bureau’s Advance Retail Sales Report was a strong one, especially in light of revisions.
Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for May 2019, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $519.0 billion, an increase of 0.5 percent from the previous month, and 3.2 percent above May 2018. Total sales for the March 2019 through May 2019 period were up 3.6 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The March 2019 to April 2019 percent change was revised from down 0.2 percent to up 0.3 percent.
Retail trade sales were up 0.5 percent from April 2019, and 3.1 percent above last year. Nonstore retailers were up 11.4 percent from May 2018, while sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument, and book stores were down 4.2 percent from last year.
Winners and Losers
Winners and losers are easy to spot.
Year-Over-Year Winners
- Nonstore retail sales (think Amazon) are up 11.4% from a year ago.
- Overall numbers including autos are 3.0 to 3.2%.
- Food and drinking establishments are up 3.7%.
Year-Over-Year Losers
- Department store sales are down 4.6% from a year ago.
- Electronic stores are down 2.4%.
- Clothing sales are down 2.3% and sporting goods 4.2%.
- Miscellaneous retailers (booths in department stores and malls) are down 2.6%.
Housing
Broadly speaking, if it’s related to housing (Appliances, Gardening, Furniture) sales are also weak, -2.4%, +0.2%, +0.6% respectively.
Questions Abound
Some numbers just don’t seem to add up.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
“Nonstore retail sales (think Amazon) are up 11.4% from a year ago.”
“Department store sales are down 4.6% from a year ago.”
Not long ago there was a story about numerous empty store fronts in one section of Manhattan. What does that sort of thing do to a community?
Meanwhile, news was the other day that Amazon is building a couple more fulfillment centers in southern California.
Higher stock prices make people feel like they are wealthier than they really are. Purely psychological. I wonder what investor and consumer psychology will be when the tide turns and the stock market tanks? Not to mention when housing really slides?
What percentage of the middle and lower classes own stocks?? I doubt the person who spends $60 a day on lotto tickets at 7-11 own stocks. It’s all due to easy credit and record amount of revolving credit outstanding at rates of over 15% APR
Their pension funds probably own the stocks. Pension funds, mutual funds, and hedge funds control most U.S. equities. Your responses to my post are interesting.
The stock market is an inflation hedge. Stocks are unlikely to tank with the amount of unpayable debt owed. Inflation is the only way for the US Treasury to pay interest.
Inflation is 6%
Savings rate is 6%
Money supply growth is 5%
Tariffs are regressive
The welfare class is getting an incentive squeeze to take a job and contribute to society by creating wealth rather than sucking on the wealth creators.
Exactly what type of jobs are they taking and at what pay?? Are they making at least $25 an hour with 40 hours??? Are they working in food service or retail which I cannot understand why anyone would want to work such a job….. I mean millennials who are waiters or batistas waiting on the offspring of the 1%, why would anyone work such a job
People work jobs they aspired and prepared for. Electric linemen or heavy construction equipment earn over six figures. Plenty of job openings in STEM and programming pay well. President Trump is bringing home good paying manufacturing jobs if he has to raise tariffs to 200%. If you never learned English, if you have tattoos, if you dress with your butt crack showing, then your best shot could be hod carrier or garbage man. Public education is free. Do homework from dinner time to bed time and the future is golden.
By the way, I have worked construction laborer, hod carrier, and office flunkie. I delivered newspapers. I sold door to door. But I took all the hardest subjects in school and I studied constantly. Delayed gratification is good.
Mish says he played poker to help pay his way through school. I admire his talent.
And some girls work as strippers to pay for school, what is your point???
Secular change slower than I expected. I think boomer retirements – propped up by strong stock market – is helping car sales and spending in general
Uh no, retirees are downsizing and consuming in reverse.
Millennials are buying on revolving credit for stuff that provides no long term value and depreciates quickly ex. $500 jeans from Morea or Macy’s depreciates faster than a new car but store credit cards average 28%.
Next Gen X liked to actually do things other than eat at crappy overpriced fast casual one step above Mc Donald’s restaurant and into the phone the entire time.
I hear nothing about the amounts of credit card and auto loan debt millennials carry but student loan debt is debt that should be forgiven according to the talking heads on TV and Radio
Why is this conflicting in the era of less consumption by millenials ? Many of the numbers over the last two decades have been mixed and due to secular changes in America’s spending habits.
Less consumption uh no. According to Larry Kudlow we are in the best economy in the history of the USA and the construction boom in cities like NYC is not being picked in the economic numbers. He says what I do, millennials are in the best economy in the usa history, millennials are all driving new vehicles or using Uber and always have latest iPhone
“…millennials are in the best economy in the usa history, millennials are all driving new vehicles or using Uber and always have latest iPhone”
‘”and all have $65,000 in debt (mostly student loans), barely make minimum wage, and live with their parents…”
Don’t preach about how great millennials have it unless you factor in debt!
Debt is a choice. You bleeding hearts are all over student loan debt but say nothing about auto loan or credit card debt.. The former student loan debt is good debt, the latter for cars, and credit card debt at an average of 16% APR is hardly good debt and hardly necessary since most consumer items like designer clothing and electronics depreciate quickly.. But I forgot most millennials are sheltered trend whores who only about what their Facebook friends are doing
Secular changes??? Consumption by any measure is drastically higher in inflation adjusted growth than anytime in the 1980s or 1990s
Agree! Consumption of cell phones, connection charges, lattes, uber transport, Amazon prime subscriptions, credit interest, and uplift bras are enormously expensive.
Standard of living may be lower.
I was referring to cars and real estate. Consumption of small stuff is irrelevant in the grand scheme of things.
Andrew Carnegie carried dimes in his pocket and gave a dime to little children saying, “It’s the dimes I saved that made me rich.” Little things count. Save your dimes and pay cash for cars and real estate.
That dime is probably a few thousand dollars now. Just guessing few are saving it now.