Kalshi is at 55 percent for Talarico, the first cross of that level. 
Kalshi Competitive Senate Races
What Senate Control Comes Down To
Assuming North Carolina and Maine are in the bag, Democrats need to pick win three of five of Alaska, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas to take the Senate.
That is quite doable and has been my bet much of the year.
There is a reasonable shot they win all five. Right now, Kalshi has Democrats winning four of four tossups defined as 46 to 54 percent.
I think Iowa is closer to tossup than 59 percent Republican.
Since Michigan is already in the Democrat column, a clean sweep would be a net pickup of 6.
There is a small outside chance in a total shellacking for Democrats to pick up Nebraska.
Mish shouldn’t this be placed under Politics rather Economics? I’ve noticed some articles miscatagorized…
Sure he is… like Collins is going to lose too? Fat chance imo!!
Planter will win nothing, and Talarico will win the same. They Both have MSM Hype and they Both detest Republicans and America in some way, as does their base. The Dems will swarm like bees with hate and disgust, and the Media will fawn over them all, but that only helps to lose races, and not win them.
As long as the emotion among all the good people doesn’t reach the point where they falsify the vote count, as I think they sometimes do.
One can hope, as I do too.
Betting odds are pure BS. Show me what a poll of the electorate says.
The WI poll for Dem governor candidate didn’t work all that well! 😁
Days before the Wisconsin primary, prediction markets priced Francesca Hong at 93% implied probability to win the nomination. Kalshi (94%), Polymarket (95%), and PredictIt (91%). – Hopefully Mish uses more reliable sources for his economic analysis.
They eat their own for sure! They force their candidates upon the electorate with massive Hype, and at times will just pick whom they want (Ex. Harris) despite the party supporters and their voters. This is yet one more example of that.
Hong was tossed aside like a cheap suit, before a wedding. She never had a chance, and the party knew that as well, but wanted, or actually needed some Hype before the election, and it’s all they had…
Happy Days Are Here Again!
They are excited choosing uniparty.
Not if you care about, for example,freedom from religion, abortion rights, voting rights, and, let’s face it: three levels of difference in corruption.
Abortion rights? Seriously? You do realize it’s a moot point now. It’s been sent back where it belongs imo, and that’s to the States.
Trump, or anyone in charge Federally has zero say moving forward, as they shouldn’t imo. It was always with the States, and belongs there. This means 100% of those wanting one, can simply go to any State that offers it, and they can get one.
Other than the sh&# show recently by the Dems, I do believe Religion is also covered (was) now 100%. That should be a Sell!
Voting rights are being fixed now, and again, going back to how it was and should be. Same Day Voting & Results, NO Exceptions, but Military perhaps depending, and a carve out or two for special circumstances / situations that can’t be changed, like child birth as an ex.
Religion is always there, and if people really believe it, as they do with a new religion, it is very important in politics. The official religion of the West is Education. Christianity is a traditional religion, but bright and mentally stable people haven’t been able to take it seriously since the publication of ‘The Origin of Species.’ The world has moved on. Unfortunately it has moved on to a messy religion whose main tenet is that you SHALL believe whatever you are told by your self-appointed intellectual superiors. That is a tenet of all religions, but it is just about all there is in Education.
Hundreds of Thousands of DEEPLY LIBERAL families moved from CAL to Texas and other states. They may have been fleeing that nutcase, NEWSCUM, but they remain BLUE VOTERS. WEIRD people!
RED OR BLUE, we are a uniparty anyway when it comes to the TOP 5 LOBBYING industries.
I would guess that anyone leaving CA.at this point, is mostly due to the Politics. Look at the rapid rise in taxes already occurring. The Lower Class have no choice but to eat it, and hope they have enough food to eat as well. The Middle Class has a large majority that can flee and they are and will continue too, wherever and whenever possible moving forward, as it is only rapidly going to get worse. The upper class have been left with no choice now, as they are going to get annihilated financially if they don’t flee. Some will be forced to stay and most of them will lose more than they ever dreamed possible.
Trump will declare a national emergency and mandate voter ID proof of citizenship and limited mail in ballots due to the illegal immigrant population and proven mail in ballot fraud ===this should help to keep texas red—we saw poor pole results in Wisconsin
Trump doesn’t have the authority to do any of that.
Do you think that would stop him?
Yes, No Kings!
Too bad, it’s what’s required.
They need to prove their Wisconsin residency by biting the head off a smelt.
All should hope for such. We want fare and honest elections, and same day helps most of the crap, to go away.
Texas has been breaking Democratic hearts for years . . . dangling victory within reach, then yanking it away on Election Day.
Same thing with Susan Collins.
The last poll I checked on Tuesday morning had Francesca Hong up by 22 points. That didn’t exactly hold up.
Polling has been notoriously unreliable since the beginning of the Trump era. The only bottom line is, it still ain’t over ’til it’s over.
Texas is already run by Democrats…the Repubs hold power in numbers only, but defer to the D’s on almost all legislation…in other words, same rigged one-party system that you see in DC
It amazes me that you get down-votes for calling things in Political America a UNI-PARTY but we all know, deep down anyway, that the parties equally sell us ALL out for money.
Betting markets are not polls. Betting markets have generally proven more accurate than polls in predicting election winners.
The problem with betting polls is that the bettors are wagering on what they think other people will do. They’re just guessing and with a huge dose of emotion.
“Our Democracy” lol. Things can get worse, don’t forget-white lives don’t matter, open borders, free school loans, sex change operations and free stuff for all. Welcome to the spoils system on steroids.
I can’t get as bothered as I used to about free stuff for everyone when we’re spending $200B (and counting) on a stupid, evil, immoral, illegal and unconstitutional war on Iran on the orders of Israel. I won’t consider any candidate for congress or the presidency unless they repudiate the Israel lobby.
Texas could turn blue but I would not put any faith in polling/betting markets. Remember Ann Selzer’s 16 point miss in Iowa in 2024? How about Hong losing in WI after being up 20 points/95 percent in betting markets?
And in the CA governor primary, Matt Mahan was at 95 percent in prediction markets, and got about 4 percent of the vote. Someone was intentionally betting to push the prediction market numbers.
I hope Dems win Michigan, but it may be tough. Just the name El-Sayed is enough to turn away lots of voters regardless of the position, and you can bet lots of money will flow to hammer that point. It’s gonna be an ugly racist race.
Latest simplicius.
Encore at the Cirque Du Hormuz – The Greatest Show on Earth!
Simplicius
Aug 13, 2026
The unhinged nature of Trump’s Iranian debacle continues to descend into something truly bathetic.
It calls to mind the popular description of the fall of Rome, one variation of which reads something like: “The average Roman citizen hadn’t noticed their empire had collapsed until one day the roads and bridges simply stopped being repaired.”
Holy shit.
…
Particularly at a time when Western media jeers at Putin for allegedly dotting his “Lake Valdai retreat” with an AD shield, and mocks Mojtaba Khamenei for “hiding like a rat”. The President of the United States of America is playing golf enwreathed in concertina wire with a mobile surface-to-air battery as his caddy cart, only days after escaping Turkey in a meat locker, all while US sailors literally fling themselves from the gunwales of Navy flagships to escape a war that has seen every American base in the region get debasified.
Folks. These are not normal times—we may be in the end game here.
That’s actually an eye-opening list. I feel like we’re all frogs slowly boiling.
Predators stalk the land and eat the seed corn, shared among them. Daddy is burning the family furniture for heat, and taking the credit card to the casino.
Any excuse will do when mocking or criticizing the empire’s enemies. When WE do the same thing or worse, then that makes it okay!
Didn’t you go to high school? It’s the cool kids and the loser kids, all the way down.
Feral, yes it feels like we never left high school. I, too, have shared that sentiment amongst friends.
Aaaand here comes the announcement from the authoritarian senior administrator with a below-average IQ about another pep rally. Not for the chess team, because we dont have that.
Keep counting those chickens before they hatch!
Winning!!!
Text messages from a sailor aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln reveal no milk in three months and ROTTEN food arriving at sea…
He reportedly wrote that almost nothing fresh makes it out except meat, because only frozen goods survive the supply run, and called it the worst deployment he has been on, with sailors who have far more behind them agreeing it could still get worse.
Add that to the list of grievances, and they become almost too numerous to enumerate…
No hot water for long stretches, laundry down for weeks, hour-long lines at the ship’s store, one sailor eating half a cup of rice and two tortillas.
Multiple sailors have reportedly attempted to jump overboard, and one wife said her husband sits on medical hold now, terrified a 13-year career ends in a dishonorable discharge because he burned out.
The costs that don’t make the gas sign are the ones Americans are actually paying: a thousand dollars a year gone from the average household, eighteen service members killed, and interceptor stockpiles run down to nothing.
All of it rides on the bet that Iran breaks first, which raises a question nobody in Washington wants to answer about who breaks first back home.
https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/2087717978473112031
WRONG! Here’s the correct info but don’t let me interrupt your whacking off for the Iranian Regime.
Defend a pedo and you are as bad as one
So we borrow more to dump tons of money into a bloated defense industry to top up the needlessly wasted arms. Meanwhile we are already vulnerable, and do not control the straits for lack of missiles and missile defenses (for ourselves and others) . This is due to our track record: failed strategy and tactics. Arms do not appear at the snap of a finger. Our ship of state is already wildly underwater. But we’ll keep the propaganda blaring.
THAT is your rebuttal to JP?! 😆
So, by your own link. we’ve burned through over half of Patriots and 40% of THAAD, worldwide.
Why would that be a problem? Weapons are made to be used. They bring no value sitting in inventory. STOOPID…
OK, so we’ve already blasted through about 40% or more of worldwide inventory to get the Straits closed and the Red Sea closed on top of that and no way of changing either. Not to mention Iran has been using US facilities as a punching bag, so we haven’t been able to protect our facilities or our catamites, in spite of profligate use of interceptors.
And that assumes that Russia won’t escalate, that China won’t make a move on Taiwan.
I wonder why the Pentagon hasn’t hired you already?
JoJo that is ridiculous
The Fact that the pentagon is pressuring suppliers to step up production is proof of shortages. And guess what, they can’t
My reply to Penny was specifically to the statement below:
I provided documentation that they NOT “down to nothing”. as you and many others have been implying or saying We have a perfectly adequate supply to deal with the Iranian Regime.
What we don’t have and what seems to be what many are complaining about, is adequate supply IF CHINA SHOULD ATTACK TAIWAN any time soon.
Weapons get USED in warfare. The stock declines. This is normal.
Our problem in the past has been that the process to build and test some of these weapons is artificially extended by foolish CONGRESSIONAL PARTRONAGE considerations. This is not a TRUMP problem alone.
Here’s a relevant article:
Looks pretty depleted right? You need this Rockets to cover a lot of ground, so they’re spread out.
And the situation on the Abraham Lincoln is a disgrace. But not a surprise, given the leadership talents of hegseth.
They should be happy they won’t get scurvy these days like wooden ship sailors of old!
No one promised them a rose garden when they VOLUNTARILY signed-up for service.
Lil jojo = shameful, cowardly armchair warrior
You must be the happiest person on earth, if “not having scurvy” is the baseline for you when it comes to happiness.
all because the molester and thief and his billionaire buddies wanted to molest children and not be punished.
Don’t be ridiculous. You don’t get people to read your stuff or take you seriously by making that sort of unsubstantiated accusation. You may get a bit of applause from people who have the same weaknesses as yourself.
from the homeless camps in many us cities and rural counties………to the debt load, and lost wars past 70 years, to an outright flim flam man as commander in chief, who has a cult and has neutered the republican party, like geldings……….the amerikan empire is crumbling. the blue states and counties have effectively already seceded in mind body and spirit. crumbling evil empire 101. democracy works. assholes elect assholes to do asshole things.
“a thousand dollars a year gone from the average household,” if referring to tariffs, is popping up as corporate earnings, juicing the stock market.
So Trump gave the better off a tax cut, AND an earnings boost from a (tariff) tax hike on consumers (now with a pass-through to corporations). This cements elite loyalty for Trump. The poor got benefits cuts and a stealth tax hike. Meanwhile government finances are weakened. Segments of society start to run bitterly against each other. They become predatory toward each other.
Nobody practices a purer form of Marxist doctrine (class war) than Trump.
I’m not a bleeding heart urging big free rides for people who manage their own lives and finances poorly, whether they are rich or poor. I’m just trying to counsel some kind of reasonableness and reason. This now poses all kinds of troubles.
Yeah, you may want to take a look at Francesca Hong’s (Wisconsin) “betting odds” and how that worked out
A 95% chance to win means a loss every 20 times. Not earth shattering i think.
The president of the senate presiding over a democratic senate. Now that would send a message.
He’d just change parties again, lol.
and you were worried about oil? pulling on a different set of strings now…
Crude oil inventories in the United States saw a massive increase of 17.4 million barrels during the week ending August 7, according to new data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released on Wednesday. The increase brings commercial stockpiles to 424.4 million barrels, according to government data, which are now just 2% below the five-year average for this time of year.
The EIA’s data release follows API’s figures that were released a day earlier, which reported that crude oil inventories had risen by a hefty 9.072 million barrels in the period.
Crude futures sagged in early morning trade after two days of steady gains. At 9:51 a.m. in New York, Brent futures were trading at $88.52 per barrel—down $0.39 (-0.44%) on the day but up roughly $9 per barrel from this same time last week. WTI was also trading slightly down on the day, by $0.44 per barrel (-0.53%) on Wednesday morning at $82.76, up $7.50 per barrel since this time last week.
In this particular race, this would be a true blessing as paxton is as bad as taco; close to a clone when it comes to morals, ethics and character. However, in the current state of the world, with the lack of these once important traits, I will have to see it to believe it.
Most rural Texans are Christian fascist pedophiles. Paxton is one of their own – they love the guy!
Paxton all the way baby!
senate my go to a Democratic majority But will that substantially help getting us out of this quicksand we are in?
No, the only thing that will get you out is a good exit strategy.
Strange that someone down voted that.
There are races, and languages for a reason. Good luck fitting in.
I never had a problem.
I’m fitting in just fine. races and languages are irrelevant when you have money. Too bad you never learned that lesson.
I fit in, even when I was as poor as Job’s turkey.
Nope
what was hongs winning percentage prior to her loss?
do not know – It would be fitting if Democrats took the senate but lost michigan
It would be fitting if Mike Rogers joined Lindsey Graham and John McCain.
What?!? I meant in heaven.
Republicans and right wing Sinclair Broadcasting supported El-Saied in the Michigan primary because he was beatable…
Rogers is a clone of Trump.
Exactly…Hong was a sure thing, until she wasn’t
Her loss by a hair? In a primary election? What is this supposed to prove?
I was disappointed in her loss. She would have been so easy to beat!
Mish, if the Dems manage to take over both the Senate and the House, do you expected impeachment and conviction for Trump?
Let us hope so.
I’ll be happy with complete gridlock and an end to the asinine and evil war. Impeachment would be the cherry on top. Although JD is nothing but a name-shifting Peter Thiel plant, so that’s not going to be good either
Vance will do as his Deep State and Zionist demand. Thiel is a douchbag like Musk.
Thiel is actually a dangerously crazy person. no doubt
The AI-driven Palantir drones Ukraine is using are programmed – if they miss their primary target – to target anything moving, including kids on bicycles.
From the American perspective, collateral damage is a feature, not a bug.
Can we see some citations on that? Palantir doesn’t make drones and autonomous drones haven’t really shown up at all, so I’m curious where your claim is coming from. Certainly not your ass right?
…musk really is a douchbag. Cant just disagree with a polish pol but tells him “be quiet, little man”. Has so much money he rubs it in everyone ‘s face by offering $1b to Wikipedia to change its name to Dickipedia. (I don’t go out of my way to see what other ways he expresses himself. That’s enough for me to agree with you.). Owes most of his financial success to taxpayers and political connections AFAICT.
Not me … I want to see him shrieking and crying as they haul his fat ass to jail. Always that way with these blubber covered tough guys.
The house will impeach regardless of the senate. Senate getting 67 votes? Hmm… that’s a stretch. Especially for those whom Taco endorsed. You stand a better chance of removing a cabinet member.
True, but it depends on the size of the drubbing. Senators can read the room.
Impeachment, yes. Impeachment is by simple majority in the House. Conviction would require a 2/3 senate vote, and good luck peeling away the requisite number of Team R senators.
Correct, Oil industry donations would drop precipitously.
Speaking of oil, my second favorite gas station went up .22 cents for regular overnight…
Who does Trump and the republicans work for?