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The 3-Year to 30-Year Bond Spread Flattened Over 50 Basis Points Since October

The yield curve flattening continues relentlessly.
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Change in treasury Yield Since October 1 2021-11-22

Since October 1, the 30-year to 3-year flattened 52 basis points with the 30-year long bond yield dropping 6 basis points and the 3-year rising 46 basis point.

Treasury Yields October 1 vs November 22 

Treasury Yields October 1 vs November 22 2021-11-22

One Day Change 

One Day Change in Treasury Yield 2021-11-22

Bearish Flattener

On the reappointment of Jerome Powell, yields rose across the board but with yields from 2 years to 20 years all rising more than the 30-year long bond. 

This is known as a bearish flattener. 

A bearish steepener happens when yield rise across the board with the long end of the curve steepening more. 

A bullish flattener happens when yields drop across the board and the long end of the curve drops more.

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What About Inversions 

The 30-year long bond yield has pretty much been stuck in a wide range centered around 2.0% while yields in the middle of the of the curve have risen dramatically.

The 20-year to 30-year spread is -5 basis points (inverted). 

The 7-year to 10-year spread is only +8 basis points. I expect inversion there next. 

By next June when the Fed is finally done tapering and allegedly ready to hike rates, the yield curve may be hugely inverted and signaling recession. 

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