Deaths are expected to exceed births within a decade.
Deaths to Exceed Births
A Congressional Budget Office Report Lowers Population Growth.
- In CBO’s projections, the population increases from 350 million people in 2025 to 372 million people in 2055, growing at an average rate of 0.2 percent per year. That rate is less than one-quarter of the average growth rate seen from 1975 to 2024 (0.9 percent per year).
- The annual number of births is projected to exceed the annual number of deaths through 2032. Those net births account for about one-sixth of projected population growth during that period; net immigration accounts for the rest.
- Beginning in 2033, annual deaths exceed annual births in CBO’s projections, and net immigration is projected to more than account for the population growth from 2033 to 2055.
Social Security Implications
In CBO’s projections, the number of people age 65 or older grows more quickly than the number of people ages 25 to 54. That difference affects the number of people who are employed, because people age 65 or older are less likely to work and are generally eligible for Social Security and Medicare. In addition, the number of people age 24 or younger declines in CBO’s projections.
Fertility Rates by Age Group
Fertility Below Replacement Rate
- In CBO’s projections, fertility rates continue to be lower than the replacement rate—the fertility rate required for a generation to exactly replace itself in the absence of immigration—which is 2.1 births per woman. Mortality rates generally continue to decline, and immigration becomes an increasingly important source of overall population growth.
- CBO projects fertility rates on the basis of its assessment of past trends. For the 20 years before the 2007–2009 recession, the total fertility rate averaged 2.02 births per woman. After peaking at 2.12 in 2007, that rate has generally fallen, largely because of lower fertility rates among women ages 15 to 24. The total fertility rate was 1.64 births per woman in 2020 and declined slightly, to 1.62, in 2023 (the most recent year for which data were available when these projections were made). In CBO’s projections, the total fertility rate equals 1.62 births per woman in 2025, 1.60 in 2035, and 1.60 in 2055.
- The fertility rate for women under 30 is projected to keep falling: from 0.79 births per woman in 2025 to 0.62 by 2055. The rate for women age 30 or older is projected to increase, from 0.84 births per woman in 2025 to 0.98 by 2055, in part because CBO expects women to delay bearing children until older ages.
- CBO’s projections of fertility rates are subject to considerable uncertainty. If future trends in fertility differed from what CBO projects, the agency’s projections of overall fertility rates and the age distribution of mothers would change as well.
Net Immigration
Net Immigration Crash
- In CBO’s projections, net immigration totals 2.0 million people in 2025, 1.5 million in 2026, and an average of 1.1 million per year from 2027 to 2055.
- For 2025 to 2045, CBO based its estimates of net immigration on its assessment of recent trends. After 2045, net immigration in a given year is projected to grow at roughly the same rate at which the overall population grew in the previous year, which is projected to average 0.04 percent annually.
- CBO develops its projections of net immigration so they fall in the middle of the likely range of outcomes in the absence of new legislation or significant administrative or judicial changes.
Four Mish Observations
- There are many other interesting charts in the report. None of this is a surprise.
- Having kids is very expensive so fewer people have them.
- Immigration has kept the US growing but Trump will dramatically slow that process.
- If Trump succeeds in deporting 15 million, the US would have an instant labor shortage. But he won’t come close.
Related Posts
January 2, 2025: Five Funding and Legal Obstacles to Trump’s Immigration Plans
The way to a deal involves giving legal status for dreamers and mixed families in return for more funding for a wall, more judges, and ICE agents.
Throw in some additional funds for cooperation for cooperation from cities and states and you will have a solid deal.
What’s a Good Deal?
I discussed the essentials of a good deal in The New Home for Hispanics is the Republican Party
Florida Congresswoman Maria Salazar, a Republican, has some great ideas.
Her “Dignity Act” would allocate $35 billion in funding to enhance and improve infrastructure and technology between and at ports of entry. It also reforms the U.S. asylum system to make a final determination of asylum eligibility for most asylum seekers at the border within 60 days.
It’s not simply that the cost of living makes having children expensive, there are other factors too:
The rise in cost of living is mix of:
but underneath it all is:
There is no actual inflation… because you need expansion of money supply, expansion of credit as a prerequisit for that to happen. Price rises are not inflation… they are scarcity… and in the current case, synthetic scarcity caused by policies.
“Deaths are expected to exceed births within a decade.”
That will make Bill Gates and the other globalist elitists, happy.
so deflationary? should I buy gold? Bonds? Gold Bonds?
its all so confusing I wish they’d bring back that Madoff Fund, that guy had fabulous returns, and every year. Bernie was a genius, he just needed a larger investor pool each year.
The problem isn’t just lower birth rates, the real problem is having 80 million geezers getting free money and healthcare from social programs – plenty of pressure on demand but no productive contribution except bitter anger filled comments on blogs like this one blaming everyone but themselves for their predicament.
Guess who’s going to be eating up all the healthcare over the next decade? Well at least they are going to try because there won’t be enough doctors, nurses or other healthcare professionals to go around. Add plumbers, carpenters, electricians, pilots, air crews, etc to the list.
Start thinking deeply about it and you’re going to hope that you’re out by 2035 or chose to move somewhere with plenty of young folk to cater to your needs.
There is also a growing explosion of cancer in young people and pollution/diet seems to be the cause.
https://wearesouthdevon.com/surge-in-cancer-rates-in-young-adults-highlights-critical-role-of-hospice/
No country for old men.
Agreed
Isn’t there “productive contribution” from all those companies that service the geezers?
I mean, even the Clean Air Act created an entirely new industry specializing in, well, reducing corporate pollution.
Secondary industries are what helps the average citizen.
Servicing the geezers is a net negative.
Not if your small company services those geezers. I mean, they aren’t saving it, but spending it into the economy.
If servicing geezers is a net positive then so is servicing illegal immigrants is net positive no?
Hell, no, they don’t belong here and didn’t pay into anything. The money they spend does benefit some industries, obviously, so it’s not like burning money into nothing.
It’s NOT free. They still have to pay monthly premiums, deductibles, etc. There are currently A LOT of ILLEGALS and people too lazy to work that are eating up a lot of FREE health care.
These guys are perfect for distracting the slack jawed serfs from the fact that health insurance companies are robbing them of far more with their socialist grifting.
Hate the brown people! (Except my H1Bs… and if you see one in public unsupervised, give me a call. There’s a $25 reward.)
We’ll be rolling out Euthanasia by Cybertruck near the end of the year to solve this. Thinking outside the box!
As one of the 80 million geezers, I suspect that I am more than paying my way, with hundreds of $ every month in Medicare premium surcharges and extra taxes on investment income (3.8%). If you are looking for someone to blame, start with President Johnson with his guns (Vietnam war) and butter (costly social programs) policies. Then there was Bush 43’s costly Middle East wars coupled with income tax cuts. More recently, there is the Ukraine-Russia war which I would blame on bad Obama/Biden foreign policy activities. Poking the Russian bear has cost the US around $200 billion since the Maidan Revolution of 2014.
those millions of elders did not control the policies of the deep state that brought us here. They will bear the burden of these policies, just as every citizen will.
The schizo divide and conquer thinking that puts the woes of each younger generation as being a gift from the elders, fails to recognize, the elders had as little power as the young now carry.
Census numbers are inaccurate they still use 2010 numbers and those are under reported. Government using bad data how usual.
Why on God’s Green Earth do people always yammer about birth rate?
In about 10 years, AI & robotics will start the slow steamrolling of jobs. We’re in the honeymoon period right now. It makes you better at YOUR job. Down the road, it’s not going to take YOUR job. Eventually, almost no job will be safe.
Being concerned about fewer & fewer people working to pay for the unfunded liabilities of those retiring now & into the future pales in comparison to the social & economic upheaval that’s coming from AI & robotics. It’s like night & day.
Which would you rather have? Tens or millions of EXTRA illegals competing for fewer jobs or fewer illegals competing for fewer jobs? Personally, I’ll take the later. Same thing will happen with skilled labor. And I’d rather have fewer H1-B visas & a declining population of college educated people competing for fewer jobs.
Hell, TODAY NOT TOMORROW OR DOWN THE ROAD, the Chinese robot maker UniTree has their little $16K robot that can do all sorts of physically demanding jobs. In 5 – 8 years time, it will possess general human intelligence, have 2-3 times the working capacity and probably cost 1/3 as much.
Declining population, IMHO, is good, and it will make the Climate Change zealots happy.
robots and AI don’t buy homes, or cars, or real estate , or take vacation cruises and eat out at fast food, slow food, or overpriced food venues.
Robots and AI don’t go to concerts, don’t require medical care, don’t do funerals.
When you wipe out the consumers by wiping out their livlihoods, you wipe out economy, without an economy you wipe out humanity.
But pickup a shovel and get busy digging your own grave, maybe an AI or robot will help you..
What a bunch of babbling nonsense.
When corporations start deploying AI & robotics en-mass, they’re not going to care about your job. Have you not seen Terminator / SkyNet?
You have this backwards. All I’m doing it warning / reminding everyone of what’s coming, and it’s going to be here a lot sooner than most think. The agriculture industry is within 10 years of making a lot of illegal immigrants who have no workers’ rights obsolete due to AI & robotics. That’s just the start, then it starts working its way up the food chain. Chipotle will automate 50% of their burrito making in the next 10 years. In 5 – 7 years, you’re not going to need a human financial advisor. Google already has AI that can have a very expansive natural language conversation with you. They’re just waiting on the general AI intelligence to come together to move to the next level. 3 years ago, an AI startup focusing on healthcare had tech that was 85% accurate with making health diagnosis vis a human doctor’s 96%. That was 3 years ago, That’s a long time in the AI world. And the list goes on & on.
Finally for the tip of the spear, the CEO of Amazon said late last year that AI has got the coding down. We don’t need to be sending new coders to school.
Again, worry about birth rates is trivial compared to what’s coming.
My gawd, dude, wake up!
Neither do serfs, when I get things how I want them to be.
nice troll, aren’t you supposed to be on facebook or myspace or something?
I agree, we need declining population.
Problem Mish brings up quite a bit is the economy will collapse if it doesn’t continually expand.
My thought is, good, let asset values drop and reset the economy back to productive, and not financial, industries.
a slow collapse, is a good thing for most of us. a rapid collapse is chaos and that is rarely a good thing for anyone.
We have a pro-family administration coming in.
They will be working very hard to make economic growth a real thing again.
When people feel better about the outlook then they will be able to have families gain.
Victor Orban already has put in place pro child policies in Hungary.
Good model to follow.
Woman are finding out that material pursuits are not so rewarding as having a family.
Just need some decent men to reappear
One of the MAJOR vax injuries is the inability to get pregnant. This affects men’s sperm and women’s eggs.
Indeed, I have 12 kids by three different women, I’m extremely profamily.
No. That makes you an over populator. But hey, everything you post is just made-up nonsense.
Look it up. 12 kids by 3 women, and I’m not married. Big love, baybee!
It’s obvious you are not Elon Musk.
Oh Sherlock, you’re so confused…
Having 12 kids from 3 women is not profamily you nimrod.
It’s being promiscuous
Profamily is having 3-5 kids with one women, the love of your life.
12 kids is, again, over procreation.
im beginning to think its not really Elon Musk, but just some troll…….
I’ll ask him at lunch tomorrow…
decent men have always been here, they are just invisible to a world blinded by greed and lust.
Fear Moguls have been doing a number on Woman psychology for some time.
The whole material Girl thing now brings with it much unhappiness.
Am surely going to be labeled a sexist, but Woman crave safety and when they get it, tend to be happier bunch.
Current scheme of substituting the State for what a man should be able to provide has ripped culture apart.
This will be getting reversed shortly.
”Your body, my choice” will be the law of the land!
Reddit misses you and hopes you return soon.
the entire culture has been programmed since Bernays wrote that book. A man and woman can be quite happy together without much of the material world.
My parents were married for more than 50 years, one marriage for each, and they were very happy and made 8 babies.
The modern world is a nightmare compared to my youth. The iphone has destroyed peoples ability to reason, they watch the world and beleive what they see, as they soak continually in it, and their own lives disappear, day by day.
The followers of Islam don’t seem to have a birth-rate problem. They increase their own populations, and send over a few more to increase Europe’s & our populations. This will work out in a few decades, so we’ll all be like southern Michigan.
They gotta breed fast… they get blown up a lot.
I’ll keep saying it. Illegal immigrants are a net loss to the economy. Even if a few do work, they don’t come close to covering the costs of welfare that include food stamps, healthcare, school and housing costs.
The average illegal immigrant might cost the government a few thousand dollars to deport, but many times that over their life time to keep.
The good news is, while we begin the process of deporting them, there are many things we can do to mitigate the recurring expenses.
Illegal immigrants are WAY more than a “net loss”.
It’s like going back 40 years, when we were all dupped into thinking that sending 80% of our manufacturing capacity to China was economically advantageous. Well, on the surface, especially for CEOs / investors, that very well may be the case. For those who live below the surface, not so much.
:Like I posted above, it’s social suicide to have tens of millions of illegals streaming into the US, when not too far down the road, AI & especially robotics are going to start to slowly start to make them obsolete in terms of the work they perform.
Shhhh….don’t let Mish hear you. Per a previous article, selling your country out to China for cheap plastic products should instill a sense of National Pride. Same with immigration. Besides, when the country implodes, you and I won’t be around to deal with…
Fall of Rome type stuff where kids become a vanity project.
“Kings made tombs more splendid than the houses of the living and counted the old names of their descent dearer than the names of their sons.”
Tolkien about the decay of Gondor.
I beleive Gondor may have been a fictional city, so not the best cite of historic precedent.
But you love fiction, you take everything me and my sock puppet say as absolute gospel and we are some lyin’ fools.
Do you get paid for stupidity or just have too much time on your hands?
Do the Venn diagram thing. Sets of things which then overlap, or either contain elements of other sets or do not. Abortion, Feminism, Natural Gay, Techno Gay and Human Reproduction. Yes, depopulate the planet under guise of human rights. You have the right and hence obligation NOT to reproduce.
Venn diagrams are models or charts, subject to manipulation like all data. They are a shorthand for difficult to understand interactions, they are not the truth revealed, nor are they destiny.
They are pretty things in reports to make the stooges beleivers in the summary on the last page.
How many children do gay, lesbian, trans and abortion bring into the world? Skip the Ven analogy, its tongue in cheek. Globalist Cabal efforts to depopulate are not hidden and success is reflected in birth rates.
we make our own future. its okay to fight destiny, especially when its foistered upon you by the Club of Rome and its many tentacles.
– A Congressional Budget Office Report Lowers Population Growth.
> Of course it does, from this office for this administration. Let’s wait a couple weeks and get a more honest report shall we… If they are simply saying the birth rate model leaves us short, then there idiots, and we wasted money and time on this crap! Everybody already knows this, so what’s the point?
– the population increases from 350 million people in 2025 to 372 million people in 2055.
> WOW!!! That’s Amazing!! These people have no idea and no clue as to “How Many” Millions will be born in 2055. What if we have a massive case of people not able to bear children? What if Men become sterile at birth all of a sudden. Both not likely, but what is likely is that we only have 300 Million, or 500 Million, or None? Who knows, but “WE DO KNOW THAT THEY DON’T KNOW” because nobody possibly can. It’s stupid to even suggest such projections.
>> Let Me Try:
1. We will send a Person to Mars!
2. We will see a New Planet in our galaxy!
3. We will see a New Form of Energy!
Hey this is fun making shit up, too bad I don’t get millions like these fools…
– Social Security Implications
> Made up Numbers, are going to affect other Made Up Numbers. Wow again!
Four Mish Observations
There are many other interesting charts in the report. None of this is a surprise. > Not one word is a surprise, and it’s a “Guesstimate” Anyway
Having kids is very expensive so fewer people have them. > Exactly but how many people and how many that equates too, is a “Guesstimate”
Immigration has kept the US growing but Trump will dramatically slow that process. > It has, and that apples to most Countries. I don’t necessarily agree Trump will slow it, but rather qualify it, or “Make Sense” of it, so we are Much, Much, More selective for sure. Legal Ports will be wide open for business, and used by many I am certain!
If Trump succeeds in deporting 15 million, the US would have an instant labor shortage. But he won’t come close. > He will most certainly will come close, but count all deported please. Those we send back, AND those that head back. With no work, no free living, no tent cities, and no money, they will return home, as you and I would as well. You can’t live on nothing, and you’re sent back if found, so a labor shortage is no worry. Not to mention all the people that are here legally not working. And Citizens here and not working. As rules tighten for them too, as funds dry up, they will be forced to work as well. A lot more time is needed to see where this leads, but it’s not a “Net Negative” no matter what IMO.
Just another vehicle to push his nonsense illegal immigration stance
It is quite rich, isn’t it…
The Rate of illegal numbers coming across “Right Now” is probably in There #’s, but we all know, that will be drastically reduced. Then they toss darts to fill in the rest more than likely. All while dining out at our expense?
A true believer, I love it!
A hundred years ago children were necessary for free labor on the farm. Today, they are unnecessary except as a vanity project. Demographics is a Ponzi scheme with no exit. Society can get unlimited workers from the hatcheries south of the border so kids are unnecessary for society in general.
The prog elite are happy. Depopulate the planet.
They had the chance to do that with COVID and instead they chose to bankrupt the planet doing the opposite. It’s almost like you people are crazy or stupid or something.
You people?
I love the crazy and stupid!
bankrupting the planet accomplishes the same thing as sterilizing it, and is probably faster. Sometimes a tool can have many uses, like a swiss army knife.
Covid was a program, we know it was likely man made, it was made for a purpose. It is up to us to ferret out the reasons behind that purpose.
God knows the press has gone silent, as if it never happened.
A cheeseburger for an unknown injection, is rarely anything other than a bribe to get you to do things that aren’t in your own interest. But they lined up like lab rats waiting to push the lever for a dose of social approval, a free sucker, a cheeseburger, a donut.
the future forked and the road is unknown, we wait to see what will be the outcome of this medical recklessness, this program for humanity.
Good – depopulate. Oil is the only reason we could have over 8 billion people. As easy, cheap oil production drops, so must the population one way or another (disease, war, famine, etc)
You first pal. Bon voyage.
The marriage rate and the birth rate would explode if women could offer a federal prenup that superseded all state law and all divorce courts. Forty percent of marriages end with divorce. The woman gets the house, the car, the kids, the dog, and half the schmuck’s paycheck. Schmucks are getting hard to find.
I guess, but then child labor would increase, to pay for it all?
child labour? I can’t even get the kid to mow the lawn since he got that smartphone..
Ask the phone to mow if its so smart.
family courts that awarded custody to the men 50% of the time would solve the problem pretty much instantly.
You have to find 50% of the men that want custody.
I doubt their projections of either birth rate or immigration rate will prove accurate. Major historical trends are reversing all over the world and this will affect most everything, including attitudes toward having children and legal immigration.
Besides, only the US has population growth as an option for escaping its debt trap, and that is a titanic strategic advantage in the current Cold War II situation.
The borders need to be locked down, only tolerating legal immigration. At least one million current illegal immigrants who are net drains on the economy or safety need to be forcibly deported.
Aren’t we averaging 1/2 Million a Month? 500,000 X 12 = 6 Million, and 6M X 4 Years = 24 Million…
How many illegals estimated right now? Roughly 25M or so?
Looks about right.
Closer to 30M last time I did a little research
Was that counting the getaways? I left them out. So basically 30M+ is about right, thanks!
So pretty much: 600,000 Illegals (have been) “Streaming Across” Our Borders “Every Single Month” for 4 Years!!!
yes, a country without a border, isn’t a country. We must control our borders, its that basic.
The condition will get much worse.
Medical breakthroughs that extend life include:
Those options are only for the rich. Insurance doesn’t cover most of these treatments.
– Anti-aging drugs: > It’s called eating right, and proper sleep.
– Treatments for age-related diseases: > Sleep, Legal Drugs we already have, and P/T, and Exercise.
– Stem cell therapy: Treatments that improve physical function: > It’s called P/T and regular exercise.
– Treatments that reverse signs of aging: > Reversing doesn’t mean GONE, but rather attempting to slow the inevitable.
age reduction therapies cannot cure stupidity, which is the number one killer.
but on the upside you look marvelous in that pine box at the viewing..
We’re in better shape than western Europe and obviously Ukraine. Probably even China. I’m not worried about it. Worse case scenario get the ‘Beast’ to double capacity for a while.
https://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/2014/06/05/318905712/riding-the-beast-across-mexico-to-the-u-s-border
Not good news.
Bad news.
Why is my comment “awaiting approval”?
you need to wear pants when posting or your comment will be “awaiting approval”. ask me how I know….
So, my cargo shorts are the cause?
Sad.
Perhaps the software filters out ‘goofy’ statements for Mish’s approval?