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The Census Bureau’s New Economic Activity Index Starts Off Negative

Economic Activity (IDEA)

The U.S. Census Bureau Index of Economic Activity (IDEA)  is an aggregation of 15 of the Census Bureau’s primary economic data series that provides a single time series constructed as a weighted average.

On the dashboard, we highlight updates to the current index month. Prior month data are revised in nearly all input data series to the index on a regular basis. Annual revisions to historical data are also included in index updates. Revisions can be tracked by comparing vintages of the input data series, available on the “Downloads” tab.

BEA IDEA Selectable Indicators

The tool is interactive and you can select any data number of economic indexes or just its composite measure.

Census Bureau of Economic Activity Detail

If you select too many items it gets messy quick. 

Why did the index move up to -0.05 in December from -1.49 in November?

I suspect it was manufacturing new orders. But note imports are a negative and exports are a positive. 

BEA Weights 

I am a bit confused about the weights. The table is straight from the BEA except for the total I added in Excel.

This post originated at MishTalk.Com.

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7 Comments
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Counter
Counter
3 years ago
Death spiral convertible
Bohm-Bawerk
Bohm-Bawerk
3 years ago
It’s good that they take their weighting in the model to the 9th decimal place. I’m sure their model is that accurate.
Maximus_Minimus
Maximus_Minimus
3 years ago
Reply to  Bohm-Bawerk
Hm, makes it look awful lot like science.
Jack
Jack
3 years ago
Reply to  Bohm-Bawerk
Eliminates rounding error.
tractionengine
tractionengine
3 years ago
Yet another bureaucracy increasing the amount of work to fill the available time. These brilliant ideas add nothing of any value and cost a fortune. Just like the Atlanta FED/s GDPnow, I can’t for the life of me see how these may be used to improve prognostications. Keeps people off the streets though.
Casual_Observer2020
Casual_Observer2020
3 years ago
I expect economic activity, GDP and employment to go back to 2017 levels. Pretty much all economic
activity after 2017 was due to TCJA, stock buybacks, covid spending/boom.
8dots
8dots
3 years ago
ES might popup > May 17 high and close above, for fun…
ES Anti : May 12 lo/17 hi.

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