The Entry-Level House Has Become a Myth, Few Can Afford Them

The once-ubiquitous entry-level home is now mostly a myth. Point2Homes comments on Starter Homes & Where to Find Them

Once upon a time, nearly 70% of all new builds were starter homes — single-family houses with 1,400 square feet or less that started at $6,990. But that was in the 1940s. Fast forward to 1980 and that share fell to 40%. Then, in 2019, the U.S. Census Bureau reported that a mere 7% of all new homes were represented by the small, entry-level homes that are affordable for first-time buyers — and the prices aren’t even remotely similar.

Due to the increasing cost of land, as well as zoning restrictions and skyrocketing costs for building materials, the modest, bare-bones homes of yesteryear have become the stuff of myths and legends — the actual unicorns of the real estate market. More elusive than ever, this type of home seems almost extinct. Based on the latest renter income figures, starter home prices and mortgage rates, in October, renters in Los Angeles and New York only earned 30% and 34%, respectively, of the income they would need to buy a starter home.

When Is a Starter Home Not a Starter Home? When It Costs $1 Million.

The median starter home in San Francisco costs as much as the median starter homes in the top 10 most affordable cities combined.

The average renter household made $100,715, but the amount a first-time buyer would need to comfortably cover mortgage payments was $251,190. This means that San Francisco renters are $150,475 (or 60%) short of making their homeownership dreams come true. Moreover, in three other cities (San Jose, CA; Los Angeles; and New York), renters were more than $100,000 short of the amount they would need to cover their mortgage on a starter home. In fact, Los Angeles renters had it the worst: They’re making 70% less than the amount they would need to comfortably cover their monthly mortgage.

Share of Starter Homes 

Key Points

  • In 13 more of the 50 largest U.S. cities, renters earned less than half the income they would need to make the move from renters to homeowners.
  • Renters in only 4 large U.S. cities (Detroit; Tulsa, OK; Memphis, TN; Oklahoma City) earned 100% or more than what they needed to afford an entry-level home.
  • This very short list was all the more shocking because just one month prior, in September, it also included Kansas City, MO. And, one month before that, in August, Baltimore was also affordable for renters who wanted to make the move to homeownership.
  • In only 15 of the 50 largest U.S. cities, the price of a starter home still fits the “old” definition of the term: Entry-level houses here were $200,000 or less.
  • But even the definition needs to change. It’s now the lower third of homes available. There are no livable $200,000 homes for sale in San Francisco.

Cities Where Renters Can’t Afford a Starter Home

Congratulations to California. It has 8 of the top 15 least affordable cities in the nation for which to try to buy a starter home. 

Affordable Starter Homes 

Point2Homes located four cities where renters can afford a starter home. 

They are Detroit, MI; Tulsa, OK; Memphis, TN; and Oklahoma City, OK. 

In Detroit, Tulsa, and Memphis, renters made $5,901, $5,515 and $3,007, respectively, more than the income needed to cover their first home mortgage expenses.

In Oklahoma City, renters made $140 above the amount required.

The starter home’s new and simplified definition is “the most affordable home in town.” However, this simplified definition does nothing to simplify matters for first-time buyers. The change in definition can’t mask the painful reality: Even starter homes — which should represent the epitome of affordability — are increasingly becoming anything but.

Can You Work From Anywhere?

If you really want a home in a good neighborhood, perhaps to start a family, you may need to think outside California. 

If you are one of those who can work from anywhere, then you might also have a skilled job that pays more than the average renter.

This will open up your horizons a bit more than the above four cities. 

Existing Home Sales Decline 8th Consecutive Month, Down 1.5% Says NAR

Meanwhile, please note Existing Home Sales Decline 8th Consecutive Month, Down 1.5% Says NAR

Mortgage rates are around 7 percent. Few can afford them.

This post originated at MishTalk.Com.

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StukiMoi
StukiMoi
1 year ago
When the sole and only purpose of all and every “government” and “law,” is to keep the nggas indentured, bent over and toiling for the benefit of connected backmarkers too incompetent to create a ham sandwich on their own; is it really all that surprising that what may be a step out of indentured servitude, is being made increasingly unavailable?
Reality is that that far and away most of those who are current “home owners” in San Francisco (perhaps including someone I know, depending on one’s perspective…), can’t create anything particularly useful. Never could. Hence totalitarian government preventing more competent people from competing with them in anything resembling a free market, would quickly ease all and any privilege their currently protected-from-competition status affords them. All they have, is bans on competitors’ entry; and a central bank force feeding wealth other people had to work for to them.
PreCambrian
PreCambrian
1 year ago
The United States (and the rest of the world) would be much better off if housing prices collapsed 50%, mortgage rates were 10%, interest on a T-bill was 7%, and housing prices increased at maybe 2%. If we had sound monetary policy this might be possible. The reason that the above scenario would be good is that young people could actually save for a home without the home price appreciating faster than they can save. With our current monetary policy interest rates are low and housing prices increase faster than either interest on savings or wages. Eventually there will either be a big crash in home prices or a big crash in the dollar.
Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
1 year ago
Reply to  PreCambrian
Unfortunately there will also be a big crash in young people that can’t afford to make more.
vanderlyn
vanderlyn
1 year ago
good analysis. the post ww2 decades were the aberration, not the norm. in the 40s to 70s, the village idiot could drop out of HS and buy a house in his early 20s………being a knucklehead for the rest of his life. that was a unique time in world history. we are back to normal in this empire, that might seem depressing for middlebrows used to the tales of recent past. but alas it is not.
xbizo
xbizo
1 year ago
They’re not building them like they used to…. Mandated fees, architectural reviews, engineering, inspections, insulation, special windows, automatic bathroom fans, sprinkler systems, solar, materials restrictions, disposal restrictions, insurance, work rules, etc… The fixed costs layered on by government are a big entry barrier.
Now add inflated labor and materials costs. You can’t build cheap housing anymore.
But the only days when value is important is the day you buy and the day you sell (or die).
paperboy
paperboy
1 year ago
Reply to  xbizo
value is always important. It is PRICE that only matters when you buy or sell. That is why I am not worried if the neighbors rundown place down the street reduces the “market” price of my home and the taxes I get charged based on that lower “market” price. The value to me doesn’t change one bit
Naphtali
Naphtali
1 year ago
When I was young, ( Rather a very long time ago. ) a house was actually a home, not an investment vehicle. It is interesting how it has become, for many, the means to make some significant money. Unfortunately, the unintended societal consequence is now smacking us in the face.
If only we humans could accurately predict the entailment of our choices….
vanderlyn
vanderlyn
1 year ago
Reply to  Naphtali
a house for dwelling is just consumption. like food and clothing. when one becomes a r/e investor for profits, the houses become your factory/farm, and the tenants your customers……..
Snarla Hazard
Snarla Hazard
1 year ago
It’s like they say location location. If one wants to live in one these sh*ithole cities then no there isn’t. I know you don’t like Illinois Mish but I live in Southern IL and work for a University and will be purchasing a nice 2000sf home for 125k. Taxes be damned this place is a paradise compared to Backwater Portland OR where I came from. I one wants live in a cracker box that cost 600k with junkies poopin in your front yard, then move to Portland.
MarkraD
MarkraD
1 year ago
At a glance, Fred housing inventories and real home prices tell us we’re repeating the ’08 scenario, until you glance at real wages relative to ’07 as well as job openings and unemployment.
Then minus the sub-prime loan/CDO problem of ’08.
There’s no question housing/real estate are going to slump, this slump is by Fed design, it’s intentional and we all know this.
According to the Fed’s dual mandate, we only have one problem right now, inflation, Employment’s far from a problem with 10mil job openings in the last JOLTS causing a problem with wage inflation.
I may be giving the Fed too much credit here (Insert “Kill the FED” euphemism here), but it seems like they know to look at the most immediately affected sectors to help forecast the effectiveness of current rates.
This is my inner contrarian talking, when everyone’s onboard the same thesis, herd mentality, I look for cracks, ’08 taught me that lesson.
vanderlyn
vanderlyn
1 year ago
Reply to  MarkraD
bingo. today’s situation is more akin to post ww2 inflationary period of 1947 to 1949. jobs plentiful and pent up printing press money being spent after covid(insert ww2) lock down. this ain’t the 70s. prices could fall in r/e 50% and still be overvalued………for most.
Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
1 year ago
They should not expect to purchase a home until he has made partner and she has a three-book contract.
Or they sell some Bitcoin and buy with cash.
MarkraD
MarkraD
1 year ago
Reply to  Lisa_Hooker
Bitcoins are bright and shiny, don’t discount that valuable metric.
vanderlyn
vanderlyn
1 year ago
Reply to  Lisa_Hooker
ha ha ha.
Business Man
Business Man
1 year ago
There are plenty of starter homes in Chicago, with some available for $1.
But there may be some expenses that go with that rock bottom price. Personal bodyguards, kevlar, bulletproof glass windows in the car, an armory and…property taxes.
Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
1 year ago
Reply to  Business Man
You forgot the decontamination equipment and hazmat suits.
MPO45
MPO45
1 year ago
During every rally I have accumulated more puts. I have puts on Lennar, DR horton, Beazer, KB, and XHB to name a few all for January 2024 expiry. I have visited the website of all these home builders and they all have ‘one time incentives’ to clear out huge inventory which I suspect will turn into ‘many time incentives’ over the next 6 to 12 months. The incentives are often 30 to 50k or more, that should do wonders for balance sheets and cash flow statements.
JPOW won’t let me down next week 😉
I will live or die by these puts but you only live once.
KidHorn
KidHorn
1 year ago
Where I live there are lots of affordable starter homes. 2-3 BD 2 BA condos or townhomes built in the 80s with below average school systems for under $400k. Immigrants are fine with these, but for those who grew up in the US, it’s beneath them.
vanderlyn
vanderlyn
1 year ago
Reply to  KidHorn
the native born amerikan middlebrow is a brat. for the past 75 years and getting worse. this is obvious. glad my village of brooklyn has 65% immigrant working population………..such better outlook on life.
HippyDippy
HippyDippy
1 year ago
Back in the 40s they didn’t call them starter homes. It was just their home for life. Today, everyone thinks their home purchase is an investment.
Maximus_Minimus
Maximus_Minimus
1 year ago
Reply to  HippyDippy
The banking mafia ran out of ideas how to make money. Then the idea came to push home as investment, and arrange for relevant legislature. Voila, here we are.
HippyDippy
HippyDippy
1 year ago
People who refuse to think for themselves get exactly what they deserve. We never learn. This need people have to follow others so they won’t have to be responsible for their own lives is the greatest cause of suffering that I know. If you give up your own power to submit to another, you toss your fate to the winds. And look at those they submit to. S&M ain’t got nothing on a statist slave.
Wallpainter
Wallpainter
1 year ago
Oops, wrong article, sorry
MarkraD
MarkraD
1 year ago
Watch DIY TV, A few 2×4’s, some plywood and – voila!

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