With a very short statement the Fed remains on pause. 
FOMC Statement
FOMC Press Statement: The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a 9 – 3 vote:
The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate. The Committee is continuing its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system.
Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty that owes, in part, to the conflict in the Middle East. Productivity growth and capital investment are strong. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little.
Inflation remains elevated relative to the Committee’s 2 percent goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy. The Committee will deliver price stability.
Voting against the monetary policy action were Beth M. Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie K. Logan, who preferred to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at this meeting.
Unless we see some very good inflation data in the next 48 days the Fed is going to hike rates.
There is no August meeting.
The Fed meets next on September 16, 48 days from today.
I expect a hike unless there is a labor market collapse.
Earlier today I took a snapshot o expectations through March of 2027. Tomorrow, I will do a comparison to see what changed.
For discussion, please see The Market Expects Two Interest Rate Hikes this Year, Warsh May Change That
The Problem for Warsh
If the market continues to put upward pressure on rates but Warsh insists otherwise, it will take Quantitative Easing (QE) or other market manipulations to maintain the Fed’s target.
However, Warsh wants to eliminate forward guidance and shrink the Fed’s balance sheet. The latter will only be feasible if the market agrees with the Fed’s target.
And removing forward guidance eliminates one tool for Fed manipulation.
Live Broadcast of Press Conference
Here is the Live Broadcast of the Press Conference.
Alternatively watch on Youtube below.
A Bit Off Topic But On Topic
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Trump stated this 3:21 PM ET on July 29, 2026,
remarks from the White House captured live on Fox News,
Just as the markets were recovering from a down day
Just after the 2:00 FED
Trump can’t stop talking about himself
No Self Control a feeble person mentally
“”” Trump: “We’re gonna be hitting them very hard, because it’s our turn to hit them. They know it’s coming. They’re asking us not to do it, but.” “”””
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Trump truly cannot help himself. It is his arrogance age and narcissistic personality
He just cannot get himself out of the hole he created – and yet digs deeper
A Greek Tragedy where the individual is unable to grasp reality and continues to self-harm.
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Can’t wait for the patented Trump tantrum when rates get hiked right before elections. What’s the over/under on him making more than a dozen “truths” about it?
Should have increased rates!
But every bump in interest rates costs the US bigly because of our high debt, so warsh is between the rock and the hard place.
Rate hike in September? — right before the midterms….??? BWHAHAHA 😂😂😂
Inflation raging in things NOT measured by CPI:
Food, energy, stocks, bonds, health/life/auto insurance, real estate, rent, medical services, education, interest on finance charges, cash transfers, income and payroll taxes, property taxes, utility taxes, I’m sure that I’m leaving things out.
But hey! You can buy a 64″ wide screen for < $500… WooHoo!!
The Fed lowering rates while this is going on, would be a blatant sign of panic by the Fed and equities markets would fall so far so fast, it would activate a market wide circuit breaker shut down for who knows how long. The Fed painted itself into a corner that it will never get out of in 2008. It kept interest rates way too low for way too long. Now it can’t take the Heroin away from the addict without causing life threatening withdrawal symptoms. Historically speaking, current rates are below all time averages. The Fed is f*cked, best thing to do right now is nothing.
IMO, rates stay where they are until mid 2027, depending on how the “war” is going and how bad Trump throws a baby in diapers tantrum.
Mr. Warsh is a classic “political” creature. No changes there. In the meantime, price inflation marches on diminishing your purchasing power ( USD) and lowering the standard of living.Those with litlle or no hard assets suffer most. Even those with some stock market assets ( 401k’s, etc), proverbially “widows and orphans” will be very sorry when that too ends in tears. For heaven’s sake. Raise rates.
This is going to be a perfect setup to raise rates right before the election. Trump, the whining baby, will scream its rigged and he is the sole person responsible for creating the conditions for a rate hike and right before the election.
Do worry, Trump, Walrus and the GOP will find a way to make things even worse.™
We’re broke. They’re committed to inflation. They’re scrapping the country for parts.
Yep…broke. Math is a wonderful thing. You can’t BS the numbers. And Trump wants a $1.5T defense budget for the next year. Things are just dandy. Party on like it’s 1933!
I don’t see why we would expect any rate hikes at all. Why would Trump bash old Fed Chair for not lowering enough and the appoint his buddy’s son in law who comes in and raises rates? I understand and agree they SHOULD raise rates. But I just don’t see the logic for it to actually happen. I think they will twist whatever data to fit their desired action.
Based on political input I agree with your post, but not for the economic good of our country. Raising rates would be a deterrent to more spending and borrowing by congress, and they will not act without prodding. Mish detailed in a very recent post that all the increased debt has had negative efficacy on GDP over the past several years and borrowing more and spending more will only exacerbate the problem. I believe Einstein is credited for stating to the effect doing the same thing over and over again expecting different results is the definition of insanity.
Reducing the balance sheet would be a better alternative than a hike. It can be managed more methodically, and would also reduce the level of distortion that the Fed is currently causing. Even with the 10-year rate rising slightly this year, the actual 10-2 rate has been heading back toward an inversion, so it would seem as if there is still room to hold the federal funds rate where it is.
I doubt Warsh really wants to eliminate forward guidance (jaw-boning). He just wants to do it on his own terms. He doesn’t want to be boxed in by a formalized expectation that he has to state something specific. But I suspect he’ll do just as much jaw-boning to manipulate the market as his predecessors. This gives him the flexibility to choose any narrative he sees fit.
Warsh’s tough on rates talk means nothing…he isn’t going to hike anything.
The Fed doesn’t want to piss off Trump !
I remain a Warsh skeptic. Many media reports have described Warsh as a monetary hawk. That’s a category error. Warsh is a political animal. He calls for tight money and opposes any attempt to boost the economy when Democrats hold the White House. Like all Trumpers, he has been all for lower interest rates since November 2024. I suppose we will see.
His voice makes him sound like RFK Jrs nephew or sumtin