Here’s a final look at German polls that shows no coalition can logically work. 
The lead chart and text below is from Wikipedia Opinion polling for the 2025 German federal election
Electoral threshold of 5 Percent
In the runup to the 2025 snap election, four of the eight main parties represented in the Bundestag were at risk of failing to pass the 5% electoral threshold, thus placing the actual outcome in significant uncertainty. The Social Democratic Party (SPD) led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) led by challenger Friedrich Merz, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) led by challenger Alice Weidel, and the Alliance 90/The Greens led by candidate Robert Habeck are all expected to obtain a voting volume that is significantly higher than the qualifying 5% threshold.
Seats in the Bundestag are allocated to party lists that either pass the “five percent hurdle” of federally valid second votes, or win at least three constituencies. In the 2021 German federal election, this granted Die Linke (The Left) full proportional representation as it won three constituencies despite receiving 4.9% of second-ballot votes. In 2022, this three-constituency rule was abolished, but was reinstated by the Federal Constitutional Court.
Union means CDU/CSU. The most recent poll has CDU/CSU at 28 percent.
If parties crash out delegates are proportionally allocated to the remaining parties.
I commented on possible coalitions on February 14, in German Elections Feb 23 – Only One Coalition Makes Sense (But No One Wants It)
All of the other parties have ruled out working with AfD. But no other coalition makes any sense. Disaster looms.
CDU leader Friedrich Merz told party delegates that he would not enter into any form of cooperation with the far right, which he described as his party’s main adversary. The CDU, he said, could not work with a party that wants to leave NATO, the euro and the European Union.
What Coalitions Make Any Sense?
There is only one CDU/CSU + AfD.
Granted they differ on NATO, the euro, and the European Union but they agree on immigration, business policy, and getting rid of Green nonsense.
A CDU/CSU + Green coalition is mathematically possible if all the bubble parties crash out. That would make a majority mathematically possible but idiotic. The only things the coalition would totally agree on is the Euro.
A CDU/CSU + SPD “Grand” coalition is also mathematically possible if all the bubble parties crash out. But we have had three failed Grand coalitions already. The two party heads are fighting.
If Die Linke (far Left) and BSW (also far Left) survive, it would be hard to make any math work, especially if CDU/CSU gets under 30 percent.
What to Expect?
Since no coalition makes any sense but the one CDU/CSU rejects, expect months of bickering followed by the formation of a dysfunctional and unstable coalition.
The only other possibility is CDU leader Friedrich Merz breaks his pledge and forms a coalition with AfD. I rate that a 5 percent chance.
What About Trump?
Germany can expect a nightmare. This one is 100 percent.
Trump wants defense spending at 5 percent of GDP when Germany does not even spend 2 percent.
Germany has one of the worst infrastructures in the EU (internet, fiber lines, phones, and trains). And as discussed above, Germany is deindustrializing having over-relied on diesel and analog phones while avoiding AI and EVs.
Finally, Germany has a trade surplus with the US of $85 billion that Trump vows to flatten with tariffs.
Germany is in piss poor economic and political shape.
In essence, nothing has changed from February 14 other than support for Die Linke and AfD up slightly and CDU/CSU down slightly, assuming the polls are accurate.
Generally, German polls are at least in the ballpark.
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January 9, 2025: Trump Demands Defense Spending 5 Percent of Europe GDP, No Chance of That
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February 13, 2025: Trump Fails to Pull the Trigger on Reciprocal Tariffs, Will Study the Issue
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A: We have a trade deficit with Ireland of $87 billion. And we have a trade deficit with Germany of $85 billion. That is $172 billion of the $203 billion deficit with the EU.
Germany is in trouble even if CDU/CSU manages to scrape up another “Grand Coalition”
On February 16, I commented Vance Shocks Europe by Supporting AfD and Blasting EU’s Lack of Free Speech
Vice President J.D. Vance took off the gloves in Europe. Many European leaders are shocked. Good!
German political leaders accused Vance of interfering in their election. It will be interesting to see what, if any, impact that had.
The AfD will (like MAGA) will grossly outperform polling.
German media – Like the USA – is embarrassed by the need to return to basics.
But Deutschland is a mess and declining and it all started with that East German – Merkel.
Good thing von der Leyen is in Barbados today telling them that the EU is “there for them”.
NATO and the EU will likely not survive the decade as they are and as they aspire, if not at all. The German parties should rather focus on what will survive and its aspirations: the German nation.
The suspense is killing me.
Trump expected to take control of USPS, fire postal board, officials sayThe move threatens to upend trillions of dollars in e-commerce business and the 250-year-old Postal Service. Trump expected to take control of U.S. Postal Service, fire postal board – The Washington Post (archive.ph)
This post was about Germany
But … But … Nazis and stuff. We must become more Nazi than the Nazis in order to destroy the Nazis that we invented in our twisted imagination. Nazis, Nazis everywhere, and nary a goose step.
Expecting AFD to make a stronger showing then polls are allowing.
Should that occur it will force coalition government to form with it.
German economy has not delivered for German people and they will move beyond all the hype.
Who believes in polls in any case. How many times are they proved to be nothing but propaganda hit pieces designed to sway people.
Why Germany’s Confidence Is Shattered and Its Economy Is Kaputhttps://archive.is/77Ny8
The Weimer Republic all over again. This time will Germany invade Poland and Russia or go back to invading France? Or possibly Germany breaks apart into mini-kingdoms which are easily overrun by the French, the Swedes, and the English leading to Germany reuniting again and invading the others in their turn? Never a dull moment in Europe.
Your parallels are skin deep. How about Charles Martel driving the Islamic hordes behind the Pyrenees?
Might as well drive the Spanish hordes back over the mountains. There are several French politicians that also have Spanish nationality and they are the most Left of the Left.
Poland will take over eastern Germany.
Lots of historic and genetic overlap there.
More likely that Germany will leave NATO and start importing low cost Russian natural gas. Its factories cannot make money with electricity rates that are comparable to Pacific Gas and Electric’s rates in the Northern California. I don’t think any German politicians want to risk the country going into a period of massive unemployment comparable to the early 1930’s.
I guess you found the explanation why the German stock market is booming right now.
The one thing that is clear is that no democratic political party in Germany can do a coalition with the AfD Neo-Nazis. The other thing that is clear is that Germany is the only G7 country that has its fiscal house in order, and it’s therefore the only G7 country that can afford to spend massively on infrastructure and defense. I guess these are the reasons why the DAX has been outperforming the S&P over the last few months by a significant margin. As they say in soccer, never underestimate the Germans.
Interesting that the Brownshirts, who were Hitler’s street muscle, were led by Ernst Rohm, a notorious homosexual. As were most of the leadership. Sounds more like today’s Democrats quite honestly. Or the Christian Democrats, who are really neither. Censor, cowe, demonize the opposition, rule by fear. Keep the peasants in their places.
You have no clue about history.
I think that a lot of Germans in Germany would not agree with you.
Exactly why our next President went to the EU to scold them for their delusions. This may be there last chance to move forward, or be left behind (no pun intended).
If German voters can decide who will run the country, Russia will decide for them.
OFF TOPIC: Excellent article from John Carney who really knows his stuff. Trade with China is not a fair playing field & will never be without a massive shift in US economic policy as it relates to China. Now, we need to get Europe on board.
Breitbart Business Digest: How China’s Predatory Mercantilism Created America’s Trade Deficit
What nonsense. Here is a quote from the article:
Oh the horror, a country that keeps inflation low, their people employed and and invests in itself. Policies which have grown China to the largest economy.
Seems the problem isn’t how China does things but how the U.S. is doing them.
If you’ve ever played the game Monopoly, you run around the square buying up what you can and hope people land on your property and pay you rent. The more houses and hotels you have on your property the more you rent you get paid. Arguing that you don’t have enough property or buildings on them then demanding the rules change is absurd.
No one forces anyone from the U.S. to buy stuff from China, they do it because it’s cheaper and that’s a net benefit to most Americans.
Correct.
I read the article too. The company I worked for in the late 1990’s was contemplating sending its manufacturing to China, but concluded the design could be copied. In retrospect, it was an extremely wise decision.
Another small company, founded by a US Olympic double gold medalist, sent manufacturing of kayaks and paddles to China. His designs were copied. When trying to remove his equipment from the factory, it was seized. He files a lawsuit in Chinese court and somehow won. but legal fees were $1M. In the long run, he was better off building the kayaks and paddles in the US.
My last manager set up production in China. From his MBA coursework, the class was told point blank that Chinese factories work 9 to 5 for their customers, and then 5 PM to 9 AM copying things for themselves. Furthermore, the cultural expectation in China is to deceive customers and business partners.
The thing is “copying” exists everywhere. Steve Jobs was mad at Google when they “copied” his iphone design. Jobs was mad at Microsoft when they “copied” the point and click windowing.
Why do all razor blades now have 4 or 5 blades when they all started out with 1? Why do all motorcycles look alike?
Right now Facebook has been accused of literally “copying” tens of thousands of books to build their LLM model. DeepSeek has been accused of copying ChatGPT which essentially copied material off the net.
So please stop with the endless hypebole about copying.
There is more to running a business than copying something, there is efficiency, marketing, distribution, human capital, etc. It’s all sour grapes from losers that can’t compete.
A Waste of Time . . . with 8 political parties it makes no difference who gets elected . . . Coalitions are a Farce . . . Germany like France in Ungovernable . . . On its present course Germany as Europe’s industrial locomotive conitnues to die . . .
The Jamaica model rocks—CDU/CSU’s stability, FDP’s market sense, and Greens’ climate push make it the smartest fix for Germany’s mess.
Jamaica coalition would be the most stable and I believe FDP can get to 5 pct mark. CDU fdp and green would be working great for Germany and there is no way any would work with Afd
Goodbye Europe. They are not at Trump’s table –> they are on the menu.
Right now, the people sitting at the table for dinner, are the Uninvited. As the cost to feed, cloth, educate, and care for them medically and mentally for many, after what they have gone through, it’s not viable for these countries to do so any longer.
Things will need to, and must change, or these Countries will be absorbed by others. They are so fractured as a Country, it makes them a very easy target for destruction. Once that occurs (EX. look at France and the UK) the end game is near.
In France they will either elect real Leadership or the Country will go down slow, and methodically to its demise. What it looks like after that, is anybody’s guess. I think it will be saved by a massive change in direction, but if not, it was nice knowing you EU, now get back to being “Solo Countries” as intended, before some so called leaders, were milking all the other Countries, and doing fine until recently.
The UK is a nightmare right now, and they are a question mark, as they are nearing full blown authoritarian style of Government there. They may be the next Germany type example, but with far less Money, Influence, and Power. They will stop the BS when it becomes obvious to them, as it has to everyone else, it just ain’t going to work! Stop it now!!!
AfD has potential to surprise with over 20% of the vote. Scholz support for Muslim immigration and ham handed oppression of criticism has near ten percent of polled voters claiming undecided rather than support for AfD. Others may lie to the pollsters.
“…polls that shows no coalition can logically work.”
I am amazed how confused are Americans about European political system.
Dude… in Europe this situation NORMAL, two party domination is exception.
In general:
If new parliament can not form new coalition and then new government, current government stays in power until new election. That means (former) opposition have strong motivation to form SOME sort of coalition.
Some European countries have more political… fun than others:
Since the end of World War II in 1945, Italy has had 69 governments, at an average of one every 1.11 years.
I believe I know more about this than you think
France and Germany are not the Netherlands
Both are in serious trouble
Great – you keep the current coalition – LOL – How function is that? How stable is that?
What agreement will there be on anything without AfD? Whether there is a new coalition or not?
Ursua von der Leyen is backtracking on climate with blank pages. Literally.
Germany is deindustrializing partly due to green nonsense and partly due to EU nannycrats
The EU is a literal shitshow of functionality, unable to do a damn thing including taking 14 years or whatever just to get a simple trade agreement with Canada
Now, what have I got wrong
All other parties without AfD can agree about adhering to certain political process norms and rule of law. That is big thing for Germans because of… some ‘interesting’ political events in German past.
EU ‘federal’ institutions have limited powers largely by design. Many Europeans think EU is already too centralized.
Wow ‘rule of law’ is a code phrase for the current political and bureaucrat establishment dominance nowadays. You know when they try people for calling a politician an idiot on the internet, that’s more like a ‘rule of a totalitarian regime’
In the end, the law is and always has been an institutionalized form of violence. Less messy than wars, internecine violence, fratricide etc.
So you are asserting the outcome can succeed at perpetuating the status quo. And Mish is asserting the status quo is dysfunctional. Seems to me you are both right.
Correct!
I think younger Germans are less concerned than their parents or grandparents are about the Third Reich and more concerned about finding a job that pays enough for them to afford their own apartment. Many older Germans especially those who work in factories are more concerned about losing their jobs or taking pay cuts when the cost of living is rising so rapidly. German electricity prices rose rapidly after the country lost its access to cheap Russian natural gas. US meddling in the affairs of Ukraine is having effects beyond Ukraine’s borders.
The food in Italy is better than France. We won’t mention Germany and in Holland its always a shmoke and a pancake. Otherwise, spot on.
Germany has not had a majority government since before the Weimar constitution was adopted in 1919. If you have a Firestick or Roku streaming device, you can access the DW streaming channel for free. It has a number of videos related to the election including interviews with average Germans.
Vance probably did interfere, but if anything it will help the current party in power. Just look at Ukraine, basically all the talk by Trump has made Zelensky more popular as people rally behind him.
“ Zelensky more popular as people rally behind him.”
Well best of luck with that. lol
Assuming you are correct, did it help CDU/CSU or Die Linke?
The latter was no help to the main parties.
Yes, Trumps attacks on Zelensky have helped his standing (and polling) among the people in Ukraine. And, thanks to Trump, Trudeau’s liberal party in Canada have recovered in recent polling as well. Plus, Claudia Sheinbaum in Mexico is more popular now than when she took office.
The old “she may be a heifer but she’s MY heifer” belief
Instead of blaming Ukraine for its war with Russia, Trump should have started with American neocons such as the now retired Victoria Nuland, who held important posts in the State Department during the Obama and Biden years..
Exactly. Ukraine was but a pawn in the hands of the West. They didn’t start the war in 2014. US/NATO did that. They wanted to try to end the war in April 2022, a month after Russia’s SMO started. But US/NATO stopped the peace talks.