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The Harsh Reality of Energy TINA Strikes the US and Europe

Natural gas chart courtesy of Trading Economics, annotations by Mish.

Some European Factories, Long Dependent on Cheap Russian Energy, Are Shutting Down

The Wall Street Journal reports Some European Factories, Long Dependent on Cheap Russian Energy, Are Shutting Down

For decades, European industry relied on Russia to supply low-cost oil and natural gas that kept the continent’s factories humming.

Now Europe’s industrial energy costs are soaring in the wake of Russia’s war on Ukraine, hobbling manufacturers’ ability to compete in the global marketplace. Factories are scrambling to find alternatives to Russian energy under threat that Moscow could abruptly turn off the gas spigot, bringing production to a halt.

Europe’s producers of chemicals, fertilizer, steel and other energy-intensive goods have come under pressure over the last eight months as tensions with Russia climbed ahead of the February invasion. Some producers are shutting down in the face of competition from factories in the U.S., the Middle East and other regions where energy costs are much lower than in Europe. Natural-gas prices are now nearly three times higher in Europe than in the U.S.

The Sanction Impact

Global map from Nations Online Project, annotations by Mish

De-Globalization: New Supply Chains Are Inefficient and Will Drive Up Inflation

On April 4, I wrote De-Globalization: New Supply Chains Are Inefficient and Will Drive Up Inflation

What I called “proposed” then is happening now. 

The EU does not want to use Russian oil or natural gas. 

So instead, the EU gets oil from Saudi Arabia and has turned to the US for liquid natural gas (LNG).

This economic madness is driving up the price of natural gas in the US as well.

LNG Explosion

The price of natural gas in the US has stabilized at a high level thanks to an explosion at a US LNG terminal. Instead of sending LNG overseas, it will be used here.

But that won’t last long. On June 10, NBC reported the Freeport liquefied natural gas terminal will be shut down for three weeks.

Then we will resume taking US NG, liquefying it, shipping it across the ocean to the EU, enabling the EU to wean itself off natural gas at a very high price.

In response, Russia is busy building pipelines to China. Both India and China are willing to take Russian energy. 

Texas Breaks Power Demand Record During June Heat Wave

Please note Texas Breaks Power Demand Record During June Heat Wave.

Power demand surpassed 75 gigawatts at around 5:15 p.m., surpassing the previous record of 74.8 gigawatts in August 2019. Still, the state’s capacity remained well above that, according to the Electric Reliability Council of Texas.

The massive demand was unusual for two reasons. First, it came in June, which tends to be slightly less hot than the state’s warmest late-summer months. It also came on the weekend, when electricity demand tends to be slightly lower as many office buildings are empty.

Energy Grid Operator Alerts About Possible Summer Blackouts

Also note Energy Grid Operator Alerts About Possible Summer Blackouts

Tuscon Electric warns Conserve power to avoid blackouts this summer

With summer temperatures in Tucson hitting triple digits, Tucson Electric Power Co. is again asking customers to conserve power between 3 and 7 p.m. to help curb peak demand and avoid blackouts.

Think things are bad under Biden? Get ready for the blackouts.

That headline is not at all surprising. But where it comes from certainly is. 

The Washington Post reports Think things are bad under Biden? Get ready for the blackouts.

First came the worst border crisis in U.S. history. Then came the worst inflation in four decades and record-high gas prices. Then came the baby formula shortage.

Next up? Blackouts.

That’s right, just when you thought things couldn’t get worse, add rolling blackouts to the rolling disasters President Biden has unleashed upon the country. The Post reported Thursday that the United States won’t have enough power to get through the summer heat wave, leaving us at risk of widespread power outages — particularly across the Midwest region, stretching from Minnesota to Louisiana, which has enjoyed stable electricity for decades.

Over Twenty Million Households Struggle to Pay Energy Bills, It Will Get Worse

Yesterday, I reported Over Twenty Million Households Struggle to Pay Energy Bills, It Will Get Worse

On June 9, I commented Why Are Energy Prices High? Blame President Biden

It’s not “all” Biden’s fault, but he pretending to have zero responsibility. Expect a huge summer of discontent and politicians are largely to blame.

The very best thing Biden could do right now is end the sanctions and work out a deal to get Ukrainian wheat to the global markets.

The sooner we realize “Energy TINA” the better.

This post originated at MishTalk.Com.

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77 Comments
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FromBrussels
FromBrussels
4 years ago
People with pure healthy common sense and vision , like Mish, shouldn t waste their time talking sense in the middle of the desert, they should be fn policy makers ! All we got now are a bunch of totally ignorant, worthless and utterly corrupt mfrs calling the shots while creating the worst financial calamity in human history ever !
Zardoz
Zardoz
4 years ago
Reply to  FromBrussels

Comrade Yoda! Report for duty to defend mother Russia! While you make toilet emails in Belgium, your comrades are dying for the greater glory of fatherland!

FromBrussels
FromBrussels
4 years ago
Reply to  Zardoz
better watch out you, Mish s gonna delete you again if you continue yapping bs….
MPO45
MPO45
4 years ago
While everyone is now talking about energy and piling in to energy stocks, I’m looking at bargain tech stocks. Picked up some more Cisco today. Likely will pick up more Apple too but after the Fed meeting or may just naked put my way into the stock. Energy stocks will still make money but we are getting too much saturation with everyone on CNBC and other outlets egging people on into energy.
“Be fearful when others are greedy, be greedy when others are fearful.” -Buffett.
PapaDave
PapaDave
4 years ago
Reply to  MPO45
I hadn’t noticed that it was becoming a popular trade yet. If it was, valuations would be closer to an 6-8 EV/CF ratio instead of 2-4. Lots of room to run.
I prefer to wait for that falling knife to stop dropping before getting into tech again. I was a month or two late to oil as well, but if its a 10 year run, I don’t mind. I will wait for the turnaround.
FromBrussels
FromBrussels
4 years ago
Reply to  MPO45
yeah sure…..however with a Dow Jones heading for 40K at one point we were not only ‘greedy’ we were fn INSANE ! Now BIG question remains whether we should be ‘fearful’ or ‘greedy’ with a Dow at 30K, 20K or even 10K ?
Tony Bennett
Tony Bennett
4 years ago
2yr and 10yr yields inverted.
2yr and 30yr yields inverted.
Textbook FUBAR.
Mish
Mish
4 years ago
I am on Coast-to-Coast AM tonight for 2 hours at Midnight Central to discuss inflation, recession, stocks, the economic outlook etc.
Should be every major market in the country.
Find a station if interested.
Christoball
Christoball
4 years ago
Reply to  Mish
Some 15-16 years ago???? I was camping on the western edge of the Great Basin, under the rain shadow of the Sierra Nevada Mountain range. The weather had turned a little so I retreated to my car to listen to some music. A hot wind blew in some mystery station, it was the bottom of the 8th and the Cleveland Indians were trailing. Switching to AM and running through the bizzar sounds between stations I finally found the station that carried Coast to Coast and there was Mish talking sense about so much that was going on in the Economy. It should be a good listen.
Carl_R
Carl_R
4 years ago
Reply to  Mish
Has Coast-to-Coast AM changed formats? I used to listen to it years ago, with Art Bell, to stay awake on long road trips. It was remarkably effective, as you never knew what might be said next. 😉
PapaDave
PapaDave
4 years ago
Correct Mish. Biden is not completely to blame.
Hmmm. How much “is” Biden to blame for the energy crisis. I will guess about 2%. The food crisis. How about 3%? After all, the buck stops at his desk.
As if anyone could figure it out exactly. But its my best guess.
How about Putin? How much is he to blame? I will give him 10% for energy and 20% for food.
How about Xi? 4% for each. Johnson? 1 % for each. Trudeau 0.2% each. Trump 3.1% and 2.5%. Zelensky 1.2345% and 5.4321%
La Nina. 2.1% and 3.3%.
The country of Australia 0.95% and 2.22%
Speculato 0.4% and -0.3%
From Brussels 5% and 3.14159%.
Did I miss anyone? I don’t think so. Problem solved.
Of course, I jest.
It is such a complex issue, with hundreds of variables, over many many years. But if I was to try to over simplify the food and energy issue:
I think the biggest culprit of all, is global warming, which we are all responsible for. It is drying up the rivers and the hydro electric dams in the US west. It is preventing the production of many crops now. It is causing scorching temperatures and increasing our energy use as we turn up the AC. It is why oil companies have stopped looking for more oil. And on and on.
RonJ
RonJ
4 years ago
Reply to  PapaDave
“La Nina. 2.1% and 3.3%.”
When i moved to California, it was in a severe drought. That was 1977. Lorne Greene was in local TV ads encouraging water conservation.
No one was talking Global Warming at the time.
California Globe: “The first 50% of California’s water flows out to the Pacific Ocean for fish and environmental purposes – something the Public Policy Institute of California verified in 2019: “Water in California is shared across three main sectors. Statewide, average water use is roughly 50% environmental, 40% agricultural, and 10% urban.”
Imagine that 50% wasn’t happening. California generally wouldn’t be having a water problem, even with the population growth since 1977.
California government wants to buy water rights and shut down some percentage of farming. Why? All they need to do is stop flushing 50% of the states water out to sea. Also, apparently, the voters passed a bond issue to build new storage, 8 years ago and nothing has been done since. Government is causing the problem.
PapaDave
PapaDave
4 years ago
Reply to  RonJ
“No one was talking Global Warming at the time.”
Actually, they were.
“In 1975, Broecker popularized the term global warming when he published a paper titled: “Climatic Change: Are we on the Brink of a Pronounced Global Warming?”; the phrase had previously appeared in a 1957 newspaper report about Roger Revelle’s research.”
RonJ
RonJ
4 years ago
Reply to  PapaDave
Today there are those who talk of a pronounced global cooling, due to natural cycles.
PapaDave
PapaDave
4 years ago
Reply to  RonJ

Which natural cycle is that? And who exactly are “those” who are “talking about it”? Details please. I am curious.

Webej
Webej
4 years ago
Reply to  PapaDave
People who predicted the low in sun spots would bring cooling, except the cycle is turning up at present.
These people consistently lose bets and predictions, and keep saying the climate is always changing, why in the last 1.5 billion years there have been hotter periods (when basically all life vanished and humans did not yet exist).
PapaDave
PapaDave
4 years ago
Reply to  Webej
Yeah. There are too many of those people. Common sense doesn’t register with them.
Jack
Jack
4 years ago
Reply to  PapaDave
PapaDave
PapaDave
4 years ago
Reply to  Jack
Not exactly. But those with a political narrative like to think so.
There are those who remain convinced the moon landing was a fake as well. There are lots of myths out there.
RonJ
RonJ
4 years ago
“The very best thing Biden could do right now is end the sanctions and
work out a deal to get Ukrainian wheat to the global markets.”
Supposedly, Bill Gates owns some 245,000 acres of farm land and allegedly owns more farm land than anyone else. What is he actually growing on that land? Seems nobody ever says.
Zardoz
Zardoz
4 years ago
Reply to  RonJ
Space weed for the Lizard People.
RonJ
RonJ
4 years ago
Reply to  Zardoz
Gates isn’t buying up farm land out of the goodness of his heart, any more than he is pushing vaccines for that reason.
Zardoz
Zardoz
4 years ago
Reply to  RonJ
OMG! Reports say He wants to microchip you so you will serve drinks to trump on Epstein’s pedo island!
RonJ
RonJ
4 years ago
Washington Post (dies in darkness): “Think things are bad under Biden? Get ready for the blackouts.”
Maybe they should call them greenouts. Power off, is green.
Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
4 years ago
Reply to  RonJ
So is Soylent Green.
vanderlyn
vanderlyn
4 years ago
stagflation is the name of the game. anyone who thought fed wasn’t gonna be jacking up rates to deal with this, was just fanciful wishful thinking.
PapaDave
PapaDave
4 years ago
Lost in all the political and economic furor in this comments section is the lack of realization that there is nothing anyone here can do about this situation. Complaining is a waste of time. However each individual here could try to figure out how to take advantage of it.
The energy issue was coming anyway; whether Russia invaded Ukraine or not. Demand was already set to exceed supply due primarily to many years of underinvestment by oil and gas companies worldwide. Ironically, this info was clearly presented on this very blog for the last two years. yet almost no one here picked up on it. And, incredibly, many still don’t get it! Instead they focus on who to blame to suit their political fantasies.
The food issue was also coming. I remember reading warnings about food shortages on this blog over the last year as well. Though I admit to not paying as much attention to it. My bad.
But I did pay attention to the energy issue. And it has made me a crap load of money.
And even if the Ukraine war ended tomorrow and Putin magically vanished, and Russia agreed to all western demands, and Biden passes away, and Trump, or some other Republican wins the next election, we would still be in the same pickle within a year’s time. And most people here would still be under invested in oil and looking for someone to blame.
Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
4 years ago
Reply to  PapaDave
“…yet almost no one here picked up on it.” How the hell do you know what almost everyone here has done. Not everyone is constantly shooting his mouth off about their oil and gas investments every single day. We are all very happy that you are doing well. That’s great. I hope it continues for you. For years and years. But, please give us a break. Or provide details about other successful investments that you are holding. You have begun to sound like a broken recording. Please get yourself together. You are obviously intelligent and well read and a strong asset to this site. Don’t blow it.
PapaDave
PapaDave
4 years ago
Reply to  Lisa_Hooker
I admit to being a broken record. Just like all the broken records here who complain endlessly about who to blame for “everything”. I am just as tired of their never ending blame game as you are of my oil commentary. When they stop the blame game, I will stop the oil commentary. Fair enough?
Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
4 years ago
Reply to  PapaDave
Nope, cause “they” will never, ever stop the blame game. You know it too. Fortunately your broken record is true and not spewing BS. Just lighten up a bit. Thanks in advance.
PapaDave
PapaDave
4 years ago
Reply to  Lisa_Hooker
Ok.
Thanks mom.
Webej
Webej
4 years ago
There is no solution to the Ukrainian wheat so long as Ukraine does not remove the mines and sunken barges blocking the ports.
It must also lower the Marsec security levels for cargo ships to be able to enter and exit the ports.
None of that will happen any time soon. unless the Ukrainian state collapses.
Webej
Webej
4 years ago
scrambling to find alternatives to Russian energy under threat that Moscow could abruptly turn off the gas spigot, bringing production to a halt.
Very disingenuous. Europe is the one who has turned off the spigot and sanctioned Russia.
Russia has only stopped deliveries to non-paying customers; it has threatened no one with the spigot and continues to meet all contracts.
You cannot expect Russia to accept Euro’s as payment, since that is putting money into a wallet that is not theirs.
As for Tucson and the south west … the lack of water has lead to draw downs in hydro-electric generation, so it is no surprise that capacity is less than it traditionally has been. Among other factors.
Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
4 years ago
Reply to  Webej
Soon to be a painful choice between heatwave A/C and drinking water.
Cocoa
Cocoa
4 years ago
Oil is a global market-so if the US takes out supply and also sanctions Russia that harms EVERYONE. Biden is too stupid to understand this. Trump also thought domestic production would help the US only-but its a GLOBAL MARKET and the USD is the clearing currency for all commodities so way to go JOE! USD index is 104.8!!!!!
How can you have a debt deflationary crash, a high senior currency and high CPI all at the same time. We are TOAST
FlashLumiere
FlashLumiere
4 years ago
The best thing Biden could do is admit he was part of a team that stole the 2020 election and report to jail.
Mish
Mish
4 years ago
Reply to  FlashLumiere
Good Lord
You have TDS
Trump Lost
Zardoz
Zardoz
4 years ago
Reply to  FlashLumiere
Been a while since someone rated a Golden Kookie… but you’re the latest winner! Congrats!
Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
4 years ago
Reply to  FlashLumiere
For the last time (hopefully).
The 2020 election was not stolen.
The 2020 election was bought and paid for.
Just like the other elections.
The United States has the best Government that money can buy.
SleemoG
SleemoG
4 years ago
Reply to  FlashLumiere
“Barr Says Trump Was ‘Detached From Reality’ on 2020 Election Claims” — NYTimes front page headline, 6/13/22
There’s a simple word for “detached from reality.” That word is “insane.”
Anyone who disagrees with Bill Barr’s statement above is similarly “detached from reality.”
I know the US does not support mental health, but please go get some help before an AR-15 falls into your lap.
Eighthman
Eighthman
4 years ago
There’s a great post by Lyn Alden comparing the debt/GDP levels of US states vs nations in the EU. They are utterly screwed. There are EU apologists already saying the EU will win over Russia eventually – because of renewables. However, if they want to go all electric, they have a long way to go beyond building windmills. They must lower the price of electricity or face ruin.
Webej
Webej
4 years ago
Reply to  Eighthman
The ratio of EU nations and US states makes no sense … you should be comparing sovereign debt.
US debt/revenue ratios are way worse than EU ratios, even Greece.
National debt is not serviced by GDP but by revenue.
Eighthman
Eighthman
4 years ago
Reply to  Webej
It makes perfect sense in her context. The Euro is stucturally flawed in a way that the dollar is not. This is why the Euro will fall apart long before the dollar does, even with huge national debts
killben
killben
4 years ago
“The very best thing Biden could do right now is end the sanctions and work out a deal to get Ukrainian wheat to the global markets.”
When Kissinger suggested this everyone bit his head off.
TexasTim65
TexasTim65
4 years ago
Reply to  killben
People don’t like to face unpleasant realities.
TexasTim65
TexasTim65
4 years ago
Well stated.
The war in Ukraine is like getting a poisonous snake bite on your toe. Instead of amputating immediately (letting Ukraine fend for itself) and surviving minus a toe, the West has tried to stop the poison and the resulting infection. Unfortunately (or rather more predictably), it didn’t happen and now we are at the stage where the leg is swollen and turning black (blackouts, food shortage, raging inflation). Soon the leg will have to go too if the West isn’t careful.
Zardoz
Zardoz
4 years ago
Reply to  TexasTim65
Russia won’t stop with Ukraine. They’ll absorb it, and then claim the NATO countries that border it are a threat, and invade those. Rinse and repeat.
A country that possesses thousands of nuclear weapons they can detonate anywhere in the world within 30 minutes is under absolutely zero threat of successful invasion.
This is a voluntary war of conquest, looting, and rape. Nothing more. It will only stop if we stop them.
TexasTim65
TexasTim65
4 years ago
Reply to  Zardoz
The problem with that logic is that Russia doesn’t have the manpower to occupy Europe. It’s entire population is ~150 million. If half of those are men (75) and those men are roughly divided equally amount the ages 1-75 it makes 1 million men per age year and if fighting soldiers are ages ~18-40 that’s 22 million viable soldiers if 100% of men in those ages are in the army (not feasible obviously).
22 million soldiers are not enough to occupy all of Europe given there is close to 500 million people in Europe and Russia wouldn’t get close to 22 million soldiers.
Zardoz
Zardoz
4 years ago
Reply to  TexasTim65
They’re abducting thousands of children from Ukraine. They’ll brainwash them and use them to occupy the next country.
TexasTim65
TexasTim65
4 years ago
Reply to  Zardoz
That’s fine. Means the next invasion is decades away. By then Putin will be dead and for that matter, I might be as well.
Zardoz
Zardoz
4 years ago
Reply to  TexasTim65
You probably won’t live to see it. Do you have kids? Grandkids?
What would the world look like if Hitler had been allowed to run loose? Would we revere our ancestors for taking the nihilistic way out?
That’s a lot of questions, but I’d be interested in knowing your thoughts in that direction.
TexasTim65
TexasTim65
4 years ago
Reply to  Zardoz
My problem with doing what we are doing is what outcome are you (or the West) prepared to accept?
If Putin is actually defeated (Russia sent packing from the Ukraine entirely) then he won’t survive politically. He also won’t be allowed to gracefully step down and retire on some Caribbean island. Instead there will be a violent coup that will depose him and his cronies. The problem is that may lead to a worse leader than Putin or possibly plunge Russia into a civil war (much like what the US accomplished in Iraq, Libya, Syria etc) that could break the country into parts. Are you (the West) really wanting to see a bunch of Russian Warlords in control of over 5000 nukes, Smallpox and other biological horrors knowing it’s only a matter of time until they either use them or sell them to other countries who will use them?
My problem is the West has no plan in place beyond ‘stop Russia’ without thinking what that may entail. It’s the old ‘win the battle but lose the war’ problem if Russia ends in civil war or gets worse leader than Putin or nukes get onto the black market. History won’t judge that kindly at all much in the same manner that Iraq is now looked upon as an unmitigated disaster.
There are really no good outcomes here. The West must allow Putin a path to declaring victory even if it means Ukraine gets split into parts unless it knows for certain there will be a newer kinder leader taking over.
Zardoz
Zardoz
4 years ago
Reply to  TexasTim65
Even that path grants us 10 years at best. Putin is getting old. I don’t think letting Russia gain industrial capacity and manpower through conquest in the interim will lead to a good outcome.
If he goes down now, Russia’s remaining military capacity is spent on infighting, and they don’t gain industrial capacity to replace it. Ukraine and the other bordering nations gain time to arm themselves to deter invasion.
TexasTim65
TexasTim65
4 years ago
Reply to  Zardoz
Ukraine has next to no meaningful industrial capacity. It’s entire GDP is only 150 billion dollars. What it does have is lots of wheat (farming) and some other natural resources plus coastline in the Black Sea (not really that useful since Turkey controls the straits) so I suppose Russia could corner the Wheat market if it takes the entire country (not an easy task, especially keeping it subjugated which I don’t think it can do).
I’m personally not willing to risk nukes getting into the wild or even being used by Putin in some last ditch crazy effort if it ever came to that. I’d much rather sacrifice part of Ukraine which costs me (and my kids and their future kids) nothing personally .
Webej
Webej
4 years ago
Reply to  TexasTim65
The DonBas was heavily industrialized, used to make a lot of tanks there. Steel, coal, lots of oil in the Black Sea.
The only danger for nuclear weapons is in a larger conflict between Russia & NATO, in which the US will be forced to use tactical nukes after horrendous losses on the battle field. China and Russia have a far more restrictive doctrine on nuke use. In Russia four parties have to agree: Putin does not possess the keys by himself, the key is distributed.
Only the US has escalate-to-descalate and pre-emptive first strike doctrines.
The only whacko’s proposing nuclear strikes are US Senators and the former Polish defense minister.
Zardoz
Zardoz
4 years ago
Reply to  TexasTim65
A fair point, but that doesn’t address their motive for invading in the first place. The stated motive is preposterous.
As for the manpower to occupy more territory, they seem to be taking the long view by forcibly adopting Ukrainian children. 210,000, last I saw.
They will subjugate Ukraine, then use it as a stick to beat Poland and Lithuania with.
Webej
Webej
4 years ago
Reply to  Zardoz
Your kidnapped children is a bizarre propaganda meme. Millions of Ukrainians (ethnic Russians) had fled the DonBas war (with their children) before the current phase of the war in Feb. Many are still fleeing towards Russia with their children. The DonBas is ethnic Russian, and many of the people in the liberated areas have stated on video’s how much they hate the Ukraine and the war criminals who seized their towns and cities, and have been using civilians as human shields … even today they are keeping 800 civilians hostage in the AZOT factory in Sevierodonetsk.
The Ukrainians have destroyed the remaining bridges over the river so that the contingent on the other side cannot retreat.
SyTuck
SyTuck
4 years ago
Reply to  Zardoz
You’re under a VERY BIG assumption that Russia will have any war capability left after this. They are fighting tooth and nail, and may even be losing, over an area about the size of Connecticut.
Conquering the former USSR states? Out of the question. Once (and very possibly If) Putin claims the Donbass area he’ll entrench and start negotiating a cease fire.
The argument that Putin would steam roll over Eastern Europe died February 23
Zardoz
Zardoz
4 years ago
Reply to  SyTuck
… if that’s what happened, it happened because NATO backed Ukraine.
JRM
JRM
4 years ago
Reply to  SyTuck
Next stop is Odessa!!
If Russia is loosing the “WAR” why is NATO stating Moldova and Poland are next???
SyTuck
SyTuck
4 years ago
Reply to  JRM
Politics. Not reality.
Webej
Webej
4 years ago
Reply to  SyTuck
Doubtful. The goals have been unequivocally stated, so all the speculation is unnecessary.
  • They want NATO to return to its 1989 borders, as promised.
  • No American or NATO troops in Eastern Europe.
  • No missile installations in Eastern Europe (as is currently the case in Romania and Poland).
For centuries Russia has been invaded from the West, always via the Ukraine, Russians have vowed in the aftermath of WW2 (27 million dead, 80% of the boys born in 1923) that the next war will not be fought on their territory.
As for Ukraine, it must become neutral and be demilitarized & denazified.
What remains a huge problem is the 25 million Russians outside of Russia’s borders, most in Kazakhstan & Ukraine.
Russia will never watch passively if their lives are threatened (of course: no nation would).
SyTuck
SyTuck
4 years ago
Reply to  Webej
If that is the case than Russia has categorically lost. He’s already lost a significant chuck of his army. Trying to take Ukraine will only result in the loss of the remainder. Have a look at the war assessment. For what was once a “super power” the losses are embarrassing.
Putin will change his tune once he has Donbas and can claim he “Protected Russians from Nazis”. Then he’ll shut things down before he embarrasses himself any more.
Webej
Webej
4 years ago
Reply to  SyTuck
Russia is not trying to win territory, it is in the first place trying to destroy Europe’s/NATO’s biggest army.
It is dismantling that army piece by piece, methodically & thoroughly.
SyTuck
SyTuck
4 years ago
Reply to  Webej
At the cost of 3X the losses to his own army.
prumbly
prumbly
4 years ago
Reply to  Zardoz
Pure nonsense. Russia invaded Ukraine with around 130,000 men – no where near enough to take and occupy a country of 30 million that has an army of 250,000 plus reserves. This is, and always was, a border dispute over the largely Russian Donbas area.
Webej
Webej
4 years ago
Reply to  prumbly
About 260,000 plus territorial battalions, total about 400,000
With conscription they’re now trying to get up to 1,000,000
Ukraine had the largest army in Europe, much of it NATO trained, even larger than Turkey.
There were 100-150K stationed near the LAC in DonBas, which was why the Russians had 100,000 men maneuvering in the same region, fearing an all -out blitzkrieg on the DonBas (and more genocide, which is freely talked about on Ukr TV shows). Putin has been under immense political pressure within Russia to do something. When Ukr increased shelling of Donetsk by 40× on Feb 16, Putin had little choice: they started a civilian evacuation, realized that Ukr was on the verge of a blitzkrieg (later confirmed by documentation), recognized the LDNR republics, signed a mutual defense pact, moved peace-keepers into Donetsk, and offered Ukraine a ceasefire and discussion of the future borders of the LDNR.
On Feb. 23 Ukr could have stopped its shelling of Donetsk and sat down to talk.
Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
4 years ago
Reply to  Zardoz
I keep telling you. Once Putin has Ukraine his plan is to sweep across Europe, through Spain and into Portugal to capture Lisbon. He badly needs a warm water Atlantic port.
Maximus_Minimus
Maximus_Minimus
4 years ago
Reply to  Lisa_Hooker
Wanted to write something sarcastic, but then considering the sad situation, one sarcasm is enough.
BTW: Water in the Atlantic is hardly warm.
Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
4 years ago
Well, warm is relative. Lisbon is very nice.
Have you visited any of Russia’s Baltic ports?
On the Pacific side Vladivostok is pretty chilly too.
Webej
Webej
4 years ago
Reply to  Zardoz
There is nobody to stop them.
They could easily have been stopped by agreeing to a security treaty.
The Russians are not so much fighting Ukraine as NATO/USA
Naphtali
Naphtali
4 years ago
Reply to  TexasTim65
Unfortunately, a tourniquet has been mistakenly applied to the neck.
killben
killben
4 years ago
“Sanctions and trying to isolate Russia” – UK, EU and US – have waylaid the Fed’s plans of printing forever.
We should stand up and salute them as they burn themselves up.
Even Putin would not have envisaged he would receive so much help. He probably did not recognise the egoistic and stupid clowns he was dealing with.
davidyjack
davidyjack
4 years ago
Reply to  killben
Stand up for Democracy!
davidyjack
davidyjack
4 years ago
Reply to  davidyjack
West needs to support Ukraine.
indc
indc
4 years ago
Reply to  davidyjack
two of your comments are oxymoron. There was no democracy in UKraine.
JRM
JRM
4 years ago
Reply to  davidyjack
Ukraine is now a “DICTATORSHIP”!!!!
Watch for a military coup on Ukraine!!!

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