Ohio Unemployment Rate Skyrockets
ZeroHedge Reports Ohio Unemployment Skyrockets By 600% After All Bars & Restaurants Shuttered
A new Marist poll this week for NPR/PBS News found 18% of US adults responding they’d already either been laid off or had significant reduction of hours due to the ripple effect of the pandemic.
For an indicator of just how high national unemployment may skyrocket, look no further than Ohio, which on Sunday night declared a ‘health emergency’ and shut down all bars and restaurants state-wide. Journalist Liz Skalka for The Toledo Blade reports that Ohio Senator Rob Portman (R) received “new data on Ohio’s unemployment claims today: 45,000 claims this week compared to 6,500 last week.”
The state-wide ordered shutdown of dining and drink establishments by Ohio Governor Mike DeWine on Sunday night impacted about 10% of the state’s workforce, some 500,000 people
Car Production Curbed
After a round of bickering over details, Detroit Automakers and UAW Agree to Curb Production.
The Detroit Three automakers and United Auto Workers agreed on Tuesday to curtail production at U.S. factories and limit the number of workers on the job at one time to prevent the spread of the coronavirus among roughly 150,000 factory employees. The union and the automakers agreed to “rotating partial shutdown of facilities, extensive deep cleaning of facility and between shifts, extended periods between shifts, and extensive plans to avoid member contact,” the union said in a statement.
The agreement came hours after UAW President Rory Gamble went public with his dissatisfaction with how General Motors Co, Ford Motor Co and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV had responded to his proposal on Sunday that the companies stop production in the face of the coronavirus threat.
Long Recovery for Airlines
Reuters reports U.S. airlines, saying it will take a ‘long time’ to recover, try to quickly reduce workforce.
U.S. airlines are seeking to quickly reduce their workforces through early retirement packages or unpaid leave of up to 12 months with medical benefits in an effort to cut costs as the rapid spread of the coronavirus keeps people from flying.
“Based on the decline in air travel, we need to quickly line up our staffing levels with the reduced flying schedule,” American said in a message to flight attendants seen by Reuters. The carrier said “it’s likely to take a long time for the airline industry to bounce back.”
American has more than 86,000 unionized mainline employees, including about 25,300 flight attendants and 13,800 pilots.
Under a deal offered to workers on Tuesday, flight attendants, mechanics and gate agents can opt for a period of six, nine or 12 months of unpaid leave while keeping medical benefits and travel privileges. They can also take early retirement with two years of medical benefits, but no pay.
More than 5,000 Delta flight attendants have taken a voluntary unpaid leave option starting in April after the company extended a deadline for requests, according to two Delta employees, who declined to be named because they are not authorized to speak to the media.
Delta has extended unpaid leave options through July, according to a memo seen by Reuters. It is also paying flight attendants’ medical premiums while on leave, but the cost will be deducted from their paychecks when they return to work, the employees said.
The take-up for April represents around 1/5 of Delta’s 25,000 flight attendants, but still means the company would have more employees than it needs to serve a drastically reduced April flying schedule.
Airlines for America – the trade group representing American, Delta, United, Southwest Airlines Co and others – is seeking a federal aid package, including $25 billion in grants and $25 billion in loans, they say is needed to survive an unprecedented downturn in demand.
States With Imposed Restaurant Shutdowns
The above table from Eater.Com.
That’s 15 states and growing including most of the largest states in the nation.
Restaurant Dining
Chart from Calculated Risk.
- The US was off 84% YoY as of yesterday.
- As of yesterday, San Francisco was off 100% YoY, Boston was off 100% YoY, and Seattle was off 100%.
- As of March 17th, 13 states and D.C. were off 100%, Soon it will be all states.
Mall of America Closes
Please note Mall of America Closes, Target, Best Buy to Reduce Hours.
Mall of America to Macy’s and Nordstrom saying they are shutting down for at least two weeks.
Best Buy said Tuesday it will reduce store hours to 10 a.m. to 6 p.m. And starting Monday, it will only allow 10 to 15 customers in stores at a time for at least two weeks, while also serving customers through curbside pickup. It also will have fewer employees staffing the store.
“Macy’s is a biggie — it’s an anchor in many malls,” said Saunders, adding that its closing will put pressure on other stores and shopping malls to close. “No one is going to want to go to a mall if only half of the stores are open.”
Some retailers who were already struggling might not be able to survive the temporary closures, analysts said.
Colorado Has 1600% Jump in Unemployment Claims
Newsweek reports Colorado’s Unprecedented 1600% Surge in Unemployment Applications Crashes Server.
Unprecedented Wave of Claims
Unemployment servers also crashed in Ohio and New York.
Factor in casinos, airlines, the UAW, Boeing, countless retail stores etc., and the unemployment rate may easily top 15% in the next report.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Loss of 281,000 jobs this week.
That is the tip of the proverbial iceberg.
Yes Quatloo, that represents activity at unemployment offices as of 2 weeks ago, remember there is a two week waiting period. You are not counted as a new claim till that two weeks is up. The number they are quoting would not even cover the increase in laid off people in the airline industry alone in the last week. American has slashed capacity by 75% and United by more than 50%. Have not heard about Delta or Southwest yet. I would be willing to bet even this county of 225,000 people had at least 20,000 layoffs in the last week. There are so many places closed and understaffed it is crazy. My best guess is they will report over 500k next Thursday and as many as 4 million the following Thursday.
Just like the virus.
The biggest mall owner in the U.S., Simon Property Group, announced it will be closing all of its malls and outlet centers in the country, effective at 7 p.m. until March 29.
Unless a vaccine becomes available within a week or so, I do see a depression. Things have already become ugly here in NYC.
Holy Cow!
Oil down 19%.
“teens” Watch On.
Dow below 19k. Still not a fair value; in 2009, it was 14K before the crash. All that has changes since was persistent pumping. When rates couldn’t deflate this bubble despite best economy ever, here comes a virus with a common sense ™.
Two antivirals appear to make a difference:
Wish I had some visibility into what continues to defy Chinese efforts in getting their daily death rate down faster such as: Are returning travelers driving new cases? Are daily deaths now coming from older folks who self-treated and ignored it at home until too late? Etc., Etc.
I expect we’ll see much better news, and soon, on treatment options. It’s not like every biolab on the planet suddenly went stupid when cable news discovered the pandemic, months too late.
Sold by the brand name Plaquenil, made by Sanofi.
Normally used for Malaria, Lupus, Rheumatoid arthritis. There is no recommended dosage for Covid-19. I believe, prescription is required.
Once Trump left denial phase and into “doing something” phase, could he have been slow all this time to make things as bad as possible, only to come to the rescue once the inevitable peak and recovery starts, just in time for the election? The very mad stable genius at work?
This president and his team completely f-up here. He’s not a genius.
It was obvious in Jan this was a world wide threat and they should have been on it, better safe than sorry. I recognized the threat and I’m an uneducated tradesperson.
They should have started preparing logistics and the public at least 4 weeks ago. Every shopping cart handle has the potential to infect 100’s of people downstream, some will die. Thats what were dealing with here and it’s been crystal clear even to a dummy like me for close to 2 months.
I’m sympathetic to his situation having half the people under him looking for any way to undermine him or hold him back but this is a complete failure on their part.
My mother and sister, among many others, will likely die alone in a quarantine room or tent because this president and administration absolutely failed.
It didn’t have to be this bad. Trump is not a genius.
Oregon has not ordered non essential business to close, but many are anyway. My favorite hang out for pizza and beer is closed for a month with only their take out still working. At least 200 people out of work. And it will migrate to a more permanent situation in a month’s time if the situation is not under control by then. I know the owner, he was my next door neighbor for a while, he has made millions from the business, he can afford to shut down for as long as it takes, and when he does reopen even next year it will still be the #1 pizza restaurant in the region, he will go right back to making money by the truckload. But as much as he wants his people working he can’t justify the risk to their and patron health. The employees are just going to have to be the state’s responsibility till this is contained. And had Trump done the right things back in early February that he now claims he did but the liberal media is slandering him, we would have a major recession rather than a looming depression with millions out of work.
I will also add, I was shopping online for audio visual equipment for the new house and item after item was OUT OF STOCK. It is hard to decide on a new TV and home theater system when you don’t know what the comapatibilities of the new PS5 will be when it comes out, but it too has been delayed so I can’t shop in earnest till I know what those specs will be, but a good home theater sound system should not be dependent upon the TV or game unit, still Yamaha, Pioneer and others (except the higher end Bose) were all temporarily out of stock, meaning the factories they or their components are made in China are closed.
If you have no products to sell then places like Best Buy have no need of employees to sell them for the duration, and even the products they do have in stock are not exactly flying off the shelves as people stay home in droves.
One bright side, yesterday gasoline FINALLY showed some response to the crashed price of oil/gas. Costco gas dropped 30 cents with premium at $2.899 and regular at $2.549. Funny how it goes up so fast they MUST have the spot price ticker for RBOB running somewhere, but on the way down it can take weeks to start dropping. I just checked, spot is 67.7 cents per gallon as I type, down almost a full buck from just two weeks ago, and the markup on motor fuel is still historic even with the 30 cent drop here yesterday. Since we are in a declared emergency I should think gouging laws would be in effect.
Bars and restaurants now serving only to go.
atm oil down > 13%. Ouch!
Deflationary.
TB, if it were permanent it would be deflationary, but lower prices in motor fuels is ALWAYS very temporary and bounces back with a vengence once SA stops flooding the markets to punish quota scofflaws. In the meanwhile the lower prices tend to be stimulative and inflationary as a result. People always feel like the lower gas prices allow them to spend more on other stuff so they do, and that gets more dollars chasing the same goods. This time though I think the demand side of the fuels market is in worse shape than the supply side and SA and other suppliers may find it a lot harder to regain that $50 per bbl minimum they want. At least as long as there is economic dislocation resulting from the pandemic they are going to be stuck with lower prices. And the dislocation will last at least three months after a viable treatment/vaccine is made public. So, this time around it might well be a powerful force for deflation. They sure are taking their time about dropping prices though.
Nothing is permanent … including deflation.
Saudi Arabia got the ball rolling with production gains / price cuts. But virus will WIPE OUT demand. Once the dust clears … and many producers crushed / out of business … prices will rise. But jobs / wages need to see rebound first.
EXACTLY TB, even CNBC has a front page story that basically syas oil price wars are here to stay even as prices crash, and the reasons are that oil is on it’s way out long before the planet has been pumped dry, suppliers are going to have to fight to sell oil from now on. The electric movement has just started and it will reach a point where demand for oil drops faster than price elasticity can keep people addicted to internal combustion. Poor benighted Venzuela with the largest proven reserves on the planet will still be sitting on all that oil a century from now.
Retail sales.
Lost in the noise yesterday was retail sales for February reported.
consensus … +0.2%
range of “experts” … -0.1% to +0.3%
actual … -0.5%
March will be FUGLY … and then some.
Looks like it may be even worse than the dire predictions:
There’s a lot of criticism by a lot of people going in every direction. The government should do this, the White House should do that, governors should have been done this or that. This is not a once-in-a-lifetime event but a once-in-a-century event. There is no way to prepare for something like this. Hence New York’s and now Colorado’s labor department websites have crashed — they weren’t designed for overwhelming numbers to access them.
This is not to say that leadership can’t improve their methods, especially in those states (and countries) that have been mainly watching from the sidelines.
Shut ‘er down!
It isn’t just governments either MiTurn; corporate switchboards and call centers are just not prepared either. I have tried to call United about my ticket from Tampa to Oregon early next month and every single time I have called no matter the hour the hold time was MORE THAN TWO HOURS. How much more? Who knows they don’t say, entirely possible the call centers are just closed and the computer generated message defaults to more than 2 hours. One thing is pretty certain, a lot of people will just hang up as I have done every time. And if the ticket is not refundable they either have to use it or lose it. The airline did send out an email saying through March 31 they will void the fee for changing dates, but cancellation apprears to be another thing altogether.
Herkie, you just explained why the hospitals are getting overwhelmed.
The March jobs report will be a bloodbath when it comes out. I’m convinced they will either delay the report indefinitely or announce a huge modification in how it is produced. Maybe Trump will just send home the labor department people who produce the report, saying they are non-essential workers.
“I’m convinced they will either delay the report indefinitely or announce a huge modification in how it is produced.”
…
They’ll delay. They have done this before with government shut downs. Distinct possibility.
You’re probably right. They’ll count those who aren’t working but were as employed..just not working ..receiving financial help from the government..because they don’t have jobs to go too.. but they’re not unemployed !
Well, we are now weeks into the situation and UNemployment numbers are reported weekly. Of course there is also a two week waiting period before applicants start getting compensation so we should start to see the numbers in the weekly reports jump any day now. It will be likely a month before we see true blood in the streets carnage though as most mandatory closures just started within the last few days. I can see Nevada’s going to 25% EASILY as the governor just ordered all non essential businesses closed for at least a month, all casinos, Las Vegas has at least 30% of it’s population working in hospitality and entertainment, and it will not be just those employees affected as the ancillary unemployment with those firms that service the hospitality and entertainment industry go home for the duration. That city has probably more dining room space per resident than any two states combined, with 43 million visitors per year arriving at LV International, subtract a month of arrivals, at least, their economy is going to hit a steel reinforced concrete wall doing 100 mph. There will be no survivors there. The more marginally attached members of the workforce (and there are a LOT of those in Vegas believe me) will just leave. That will affect rents and home prices, it is going to get really ugly in Nevada. Statewide gaming revenue just topped $12 billion as reported in January for last year. That means with a 30 day closure and no gaming the state budget is going to take at LEAST a billion dollar hit on the income side and who knows how much on the outflow side as unemployment and social costs absolutely skyrocket. The whole state is built on non essential services.
They tore down my favorite mall, which was one of the larger ones, the only retailer left standing was Macy’s the rest was destroyed. Then they built an outdoor mall here in kansas where we have freezing winters i’ve gone there a few times in winter and you get attacked by the employees because they haven’t seen anyone all day. Now they were talking about rebuilding the indoor mall that they closed down but that was before all this recent crap. Who are the idiots that make these choices?
and I just want to kiss you all! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hO4BhXaMpxs
My sister and bro-in-law closed their long established eatery in Oregon; they had to let everyone go except for two cooks. They’re left with trying to make the business profitable using only takeout.
Note: “takeout” is a foreign word to me. In the Pacific Northwest (and elsewhere) it’s called “to-go.”
Agree, “to go” is most common everywhere in America. In the UK it is “take away”.
Quatloo, I like “take away” better than “takeout.” The latter is what snipers do to their targets.
In Oregon also, my favorite pizza place just closed for the next month laying off over 200 people. They have a take away restaurant as well, that is still functioning, but sob, no place to go have a pint of the best beers on the planet.
Mish – I started following you after the 2008 fiasco. You always had some of the best information offered up. Then things rocked along so nice for a while and your writings were good, sometimes viewed with a hint of politics but not much and I followed you out of habit and gave lots of your articles a cursory glance and moved about my day.
But..when the going gets tough, you shine. You kick it up a notch. You are ‘go to’ reading for anyone looking for direction and a possible path out of this mess. No political slant, just good rock solid information based on data sprinkled with common sense. Until this most recent crisis passes, you are the go to read whenever anything drifts from your fingertips. Dammit…its just good work. Keep it up.
That is why even a lifelong democrat like me reads Mish, real economics is not as bound to politics as most people think it is. When he comments on politics and politicians it is because they do have a bearing on economics, and Mike has a LOT of common sense. I actually started following Mish from another source before the GFC, a lot simpler world then.
Same here, lean left but Mish is my go to source. I cross check everything I read against what he is saying.
My forecast is 40% by the time all is said and done in a few months. I would not rule out a declaration of war against someone this summer just to blame someone for all this.
Can’t the BLS just consider these workers as “discouraged” by a pandemic? All we need to do is remove many of them from the official workforce to keep unemployment to an aesthetically pleasing single digit figure. Maybe a new hedonic adjustment is in order?
The BLS has long subscribed to Stalin’s idea of no person, no problem. They’ve gotten away with it so far, so they may as well shift into another gear and get chopping!
Indeed. Just change a few formulas and definitions. 99% of the population wouldn’t care to do any research into what’s going on.
I’m sure they will do something like this, talk about ‘temporary’ unemployment as opposed to leading with a huge double-digit unemployment number.
Maybe they will just place an asterisk next to the number.
If the crooks wanted to support the economy, they could have extended the
unemployment benefits, instead of bailing out the buyback queens, and sugar coat it by giving the unwashed a 1k cheque.
The way things are headed 25% seems more likely.
You’re touting the ‘realistic’ number that won’t be reported.
In the Great Depression, the number of people employed fell by 25%. I think this is worse because customers can’t go out and shop because it is a health risk, and personal finances heading into this pandemic were worse than in the late 1920’s.