The Solution to the Airline Flight Cancellation Fiasco is Easy, Do Nothing

Southwest Cancels Another 4,800 Flights 

NPR reports Southwest Cancels Another 4,800 Flights as its Reduced Schedule Continues.

After canceling roughly 13,000 flights in the last few days, the airline is planning to remain on a reduced flying schedule for a few more days, its CEO said in a statement late Tuesday.

All domestic airlines have returned to pre-storm delay and cancellation levels after being knocked off-kilter late last week by a severe winter storm. Yet Southwest Airlines, plagued by staffing shortages and an outdated scheduling system, is still paralyzed.

Understanding the Meltdown

The Wall Street Journal explains How Southwest Airlines Melted Down.

When Southwest Airlines Co. reassigns crews after flight disruptions, it typically relies on a system called SkySolver. This Christmas, SkySolver not only didn’t solve much, it also helped create the worst industry meltdown in recent memory.

SkySolver was overwhelmed by the scale of the task of sorting out which pilots and flight attendants could work which flights, Southwest executives said. Crew schedulers instead had to comb through records by hand.

Some shared screenshots on social media that showed hold times of eight hours or more—which meant they could wait a full workday for instructions while flights were stuck for the lack of a crew. The airline was scrambling just to figure out where its crew members were located, union leaders said.

It canceled more than 13,000 flights since Thursday, stranded passengers and bags across the country, snarled Southwest’s crew members and drew fire from federal officials. 

Southwest’s pilots union for years complained that SkySolver often spits out fixes that don’t make much sense, sending crews on circuitous journeys around the country as passengers to meet flights, a practice known as “deadheading.”

By Monday, Southwest executives realized they needed a full reboot. In an effort to get pilots, flight attendants and planes into position, the airline took more draconian measures. It canceled close to two-thirds of its planned flights for multiple days, and locked up seat inventory on its website so customers couldn’t buy tickets for a flight that might ultimately be canceled.

Unlike many rival airlines, Southwest’s planes generally hop from one city to another, rather than orbiting a major hub. That approach lets Southwest maximize use of its planes and crew, but the daisy chain structure also makes its network more delicate—problems in one corner of the country can be difficult to contain, said Samuel Engel, senior vice president of aviation at consulting firm ICF International Inc.

From a Southwest Pilot

Unclaimed Baggage

Pete to the Rescue

Airline’s Fault

Climate Change to Blame?

You knew that would eventually come up, didn’t you?

More Idiocy

Where’s Elizabeth Warren?

I Found Her

The Problem

Obviously, SkySolver is a total disaster. Perhaps Southwest’s no hub model is a problem as well.

Then again, perhaps not having a hub is a feature except during extreme times. This storm was extreme. 

It’s a cliché, but call it the perfect storm if you like. 

What’s the Solution?

The solution is not more airlines. The solution is not more regulation. The solution has nothing to do with blocking mergers. 

The solution, believe it or not, is for government to do nothing at all

Congress should stay out of it. So should Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg. And so should President Biden. 

Amazing, Paul Krugman gets this correct in a seven-point Tweet Thread

Paul Krugman on Southwest

  • I’m doing some homework on the Southwest disaster — probably more tomorrow. And I hate to say this, but it doesn’t look like a simple morality play about greedy capitalists 1/
  • A lot of the issue was apparently that SW does point-to-point, not hub and spoke. This left planes and especially crews stranded far more than other airlines 2/
  • But p2p has advantages in normal conditions. In fact, other airlines have to some extent been moving back to the direct flight system over time 3/
  • Worth noting that before this happened, SW was ranked #1 in customer satisfaction (in basic economy — it doesn’t have business class) 4/
  • Now clearly SW had an inadequate scheduling system; there may be a story of corporate penny-pinching here. But hardly unique 5/
  • Mainly, though, a system that normally works pretty well ran into a, um, perfect storm. No doubt some bad actors; there must be some way to blame Musk or someone. But not a morality play 6/
  • Btw, clear family resemblance to the shipping container crisis of 2021-2. But more to come 7/

Free Market Dynamics

If consumers get mad enough they will stop using Southwest. Meanwhile, Southwest will surely upgrade SkySolver.

Perhaps Southwest rethinks its no hub model. 

Regardless, consumers will now be aware of the possibilities of such a disaster and will either be willing to gamble on them or switch.

The solution then, is do nothing. By that I mean no legislative response from Congress. Southwest will upgrade its system or it will lose customers. 

And Southwest customers will now be aware of issues with its no hub model that usually works better except when it spectacularly doesn’t.

That said, Krugman gave himself away. 

And I hate to say this, but it doesn’t look like a simple morality play about greedy capitalists.

What a hoot. Krugman wanted to make a moral statement and blame greedy capitalists but couldn’t. 

This post originated on MishTalk.Com.

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Art Vandalay
Art Vandalay
2 years ago
Southwest does operate hubs, in fact a whole lot of them! Examples – Las Vegas, Phoenix, Dallas, Houston, Denver, Kansas City, Chicago, Baltimore, Atlanta.
They just don’t call them hubs.
Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
3 years ago
Obviously this was all Putin’s fault.
Or, maybe Trump’s.
Tony Bennett
Tony Bennett
3 years ago
“The solution then, is do nothing. By that I mean no legislative response from Congress. Southwest will upgrade its system or it will lose customers.”
Bankruptcy works fine for me. Let shareholders take the hit for incompetency.
Naturally, when Covid hit in 2020 … airlines started screaming for a bailout … CARES Act gave them $25 billion … of course, no rainy day fund to be had since industry spent $50 billion in prior decade on buybacks / dividends.
Casual_Observer2020
Casual_Observer2020
3 years ago
Everyone knows the airline rules themselves are a joke. No other country gets away with making people pay higher prices for poorer quality service. I thought Mish would know better and go after the airlines and their pensions as the culprit. That’s where a good chunk of the fare money now goes. Airlines are now getting away with selling tickets which are not only non-refundable and non-changeable. If your travel plans change, then you are simply out of the money and must buy another ticket. This is where I think the US government should step in and make sure that airlines can’t get away with selling the same seat multiple times. This would be the equivalent of selling another product or service multiple times even when it has NEVER been used.
Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
3 years ago
An airline ticket is merely a place to hang additional fees.
Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
3 years ago
Now that I think of it – my Congressman has been sold several times – and never really used.
Art Vandalay
Art Vandalay
2 years ago
U.S. Airlines largely eliminated their pension plans decades ago. Your point is well taken but most of the profits and bailout money has gone to executive compensation and stock buybacks.
Carl_R
Carl_R
3 years ago
Perfect post, Mish.
RonJ
RonJ
3 years ago
“If consumers get mad enough they will stop using Southwest. Meanwhile, Southwest will surely upgrade SkySolver.”
Chinese consumers finally got mad enough to mass protest Zero Covid lockdowns. Maybe Southwest could give it’s upgraded system a catchy name, like SkyNet. Always watching out for the passengers.
MPO45
MPO45
3 years ago
I disagree with ‘Do Nothing’ because what happened at southwest was a mere snapshot at the horrors to come over the next 8 years as the demographics come to bear. Let’s review causes and effects.
1. Huge demand for air travel because of the christmas holiday
2. Massive winter storm disrupts ability of workers to get to work
3. Chaos, pain and suffering
Now this is fundamentally a supply and demand issue. There was a whole lot of demand for air flights and little supply of workers to provide it. Doing nothing isn’t going to resolve this nor do airlines have the ability to necessarily fix this problem particularly when 10,000 boomers retire each day and there aren’t enough replacements coming in to back fill those retiring.
So what is going to happen moving forward? More and more demand for flights and fewer and fewer workers. How is the “free market” going to solve this? “Just pay the workers more” is the rallying cry for the solution to everything so let’s run the traps. Airline pilots, flight attendants, baggage handlers are now paid $200,000/year because the demand is there but the supply isn’t. What other industry are these workers poached from…healthcare? police and fire departments? oil & gas industry? Choose your poison and tell me what happens to *those* industries that are getting poached? “Just pay them more” well then you’re into an inflationary wage death spiral.
On almost every flight I get on these days the planes seem to be top heavy gray haired people so I assume it’s a whole lot of retired boomers traveling for fun placing demands on industries but of course not contributing to the labor force.
So I’m not sure how ‘do nothing’ will solve the upcoming labor shortage problem but at least we did get to see a snapshot of what’s coming soon to every city and state near you. At a bare minimum, some type of immigration reform is needed and that’s one thing I can name that can help.
I also wonder why the airline industry gets a free pass on failing to provide the service people pay for with little or no penalty. In europe, if you are delayed by a few hours you are entitled to get 600 euros from the airline for the screw up. I’d like to see that in place here.
TexasTim65
TexasTim65
3 years ago
Reply to  MPO45
So what’s your solution? More government control to the point where it’s like Russia was in the 1970s when they told you want job you were going to work at?
If there is more demand and fewer workers/flights then prices rise. As prices rise, more people get priced out and demand falls. This even gives the added benefit of less crowded airports and security lines. Basic economics which you know as well as I do.
Immigration reform is long way away. Unabated illegals with no discernible skills is definitely not what’s needed because that puts even more pressure on the limited amount of services we have. The US needs to crack down on illegals while simultaneously enticing (poaching) highly skilled people from other countries. It’s done that with Canada for decades and it just now needs to do more of it with Europe/Asia.
MPO45
MPO45
2 years ago
Reply to  TexasTim65
So what’s your solution?
To move somewhere else where I can get the goods and services at the prices I’d like to pay.
RonJ
RonJ
3 years ago
“You knew that would eventually come up, didn’t you?”
We are getting some rain in Los Angeles this week. According to the forecast, if it wasn’t for the tradition of not holding the Rose Parade on Sunday, January 1, it would be raining on our parade day.
Southwest flies out of Burbank. Air traffic usually turns off to the west, but on occasion they fly by almost overhead. I hadn’t really paid attention the reduction in flights out of the airport. First flight of the morning just took off at 7:06, as i type this. No idea what airline. 7:08, flight number 2. Well, someone is flying out of the airport this morning.
Avery
Avery
3 years ago
Southwest should hire Sam Brinton as CEO.
8dots
8dots
3 years ago
Xmas break, other holidays, still working hard online.
8dots
8dots
3 years ago
Never fly/ drive during the holidays
Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
3 years ago
Reply to  8dots
Charter a private flight, or limo.
8dots
8dots
3 years ago
AirTag showed how bad they all are well before Alberta clipper. The airlines wouldn’t release your luggage and wouldn’t let u pick it up,
even if AirTag show where the luggage is. Fly with a private jet, or without a luggage.
Foreign airlines are also infected with the same problems. US gov picked up Southwest to show how they really care. If Southwest go
bk first, US gov will rescue the airlines again.
Doug78
Doug78
3 years ago
Well this looks like a job for ChatGPT! I would be curious to see what it would come up with.
prumbly
prumbly
3 years ago
You know you’ve made it as a blogger when you get your first stalker
Doug78
Doug78
3 years ago
Reply to  prumbly
Mouse
Mouse
3 years ago
Considering the precision and efficiency of the USPS and Amtrak is there anyone better than federal bureaucrats to micro-manage and back seat drive airlines? How about a random selection of kindergartners?
Some of the stuff we blame on the airlines (in addition to the stuff the airlines actually do mess up):
— the TSA sex predators supposedly looking for terrorists
— the air traffic controllers
— the luggage belts at almost all US airports
— rules governing when pilots must retire, even though the idiot with his finger on the nuclear launch button is much much older
— rules governing when pilots must retire, even though the idiots running Congress are much much older
— rules requiring the airline to ask if you packed your own bag
— rules that allow zero leg room, but somehow the plane would empty in five minutes in an emergency (believe it or not)
— rules that require the flight attendant to explain how a seatbelt works before every flight
— if the plane crashes and you somehow survive, you are expected to try to squeeze through narrow openings above the wings and then swim away to safety using your seat cushion. Many passengers on the plane cannot fit through the narrow exit or fit in a single seat. Everyone behind the fat person is going to burn in the plane. The elderly and disabled will miraculously get themselves through the narrow opening, and then walk themselves across the wing
Airports are run (operated) by local government agencies. Every airport in the USA is designed to make connecting flights difficult. Many airports are under “temporary” construction for the last 50 years. The overpriced snacks and books are licensed by those local agencies.
The people running the airlines leave a lot to be desired, but it could be worse. Government bureaucrats could be running the whole thing
Esclaro
Esclaro
3 years ago

US airlines are the worst in the world. Few Americans leave the US so they have no idea how much better foreign airlines (especially Asian airlines) are than US airlines. The solution is to open US airspace and allow foreign carriers to compete with US carriers on domestic routes. Yes, all US airlines will go bankrupt. Good riddance!

Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
3 years ago
Reply to  Esclaro
Sure.
I have been so very impressed by Central American airlines.
Mish
Mish
3 years ago
I beat the WSJ to this one
Pete Buttigieg, Air Traffic Controller
Congress is also doing what it does best: Shoot the wounded. Senate Commerce Chair Maria Cantwell announced a probe, while Sen. Elizabeth Warren is using the mess to complain as usual.
Free WSJ Link
Billy
Billy
3 years ago
The government looks for any excuse to get involved. At what point is it no longer capitalism?
Zardoz
Zardoz
3 years ago
Reply to  Billy
At the point the corporations control the government… a long time ago,
RonJ
RonJ
3 years ago
Reply to  Zardoz
Fauci is a marketing agent for Moderna.
“Safe and effective” is his marketing slogan.
LM2022
LM2022
3 years ago
I stopped flying Southwest 20 years ago when they routed me from Oakland to Las Vegas to El Paso to Dallas to San Antonio (my final destination). The planes are disgusting, they squeeze you on like cattle and you don’t actually save any money on a ticket.
Art Vandalay
Art Vandalay
2 years ago
Reply to  LM2022
I agree that Southwest is no longer cheaper than other major airlines except in limited markets when they’re having a sale. But when it comes to squeezing people into the plane, Southwest has better leg room than everyone else except certain JetBlue aircraft. Try flying on an American Airlines 737 with the Oasis interior if you want to experience the ultimate sardine can experience.
Mish
Mish
3 years ago
Free Market Dynamics

“The solution then, is do nothing. By that I mean no legislative response from Congress. Southwest will upgrade its system or it will lose customers.”

In Support:
Webej
Webej
3 years ago
It is amazing to me that somebody like Mish with a background in development ops would come out and say: Do Nothing.
Obviously the software needs to be replace/overhauled …
By the way, where I live the whole national rail system has ground to a halt a number of times the past decade, leaving millions stranded.
In most cases, it was the central computer that had some glitch … we need to think in a different way about these systems if we are going to be so vulnerable to them … there’s got to be more resiliency in the solutions. And that’s true outside of logistics as well. It may be sub-optimal to have a systems landscape with redundant and resilient structure (which creates extra work and may be less than real-time in all situations). But one of the impressive things in nature is the riot of redundancy and resiliency.
Felix_Mish
Felix_Mish
3 years ago
Reply to  Webej
To be fair, I took Mish’s “Do nothing” to mean short term – crisis-long. And aimed, not at SWA, but rather at the peanut gallery.
The report of SWA people crying is heartening. In my book, SWA is one of those rare organizations you don’t have to count your fingers after you shake their hand. Costco also comes to mind. SWA people should cry when they could not adjust on the fly and create a “system” that would at least keep most of their planes in the air.
Mish
Mish
3 years ago
Reply to  Webej
Did you read my post?
Free Market Dynamics

“The solution then, is do nothing. By that I mean no legislative response from Congress. Southwest will upgrade its system or it will lose customers.”

Webej
Webej
3 years ago
Reply to  Mish
Just cranking you up, I should have inserted a smiley
killben
killben
3 years ago
“Amazing, Paul Krugman gets this correct” – Well said. That a Nobel Laureate like him and Bernanke can get anything right is surprising.
“The solution then, is do nothing” – Again the right thing to do.Let SW do its job.
But then these clowns will find an urge to act and make it worse.
Sunriver
Sunriver
3 years ago
I normally fly Alaska. Doesnt make me smart, it makes me never to want to fly on Holidays given the potential for cancelations. Any airline.
Thousands of gift certificates will be given out by Southwest to ‘make it right’. All will be forgotten within a year. Next Christmas another huge storm will come and we’ll see if Southwest learned anything.
Isn’t Southwest deemed the non-union, pretzel only, cheap, first come first seat served airline? If so, people will forget everything that happened this Holiday season.
Art Vandalay
Art Vandalay
2 years ago
Reply to  Sunriver
Contrary to popular belief, Southwest Airlines has an almost entirely union workforce.
Mouse
Mouse
3 years ago
I don’t think the “big” airlines (United, Delta, American) bother to report when they cancel flights — its a constant thing for them. When they aren’t beating up a customer (see Delta last week abusing a guy in a wheelchair, or the infamous United beating a customer and dragging him down the aisle). Southwest has a good reputation during “normal” times, so this screw up is glaring. When American/United/Delta does something like this, its just their modus operandi.
Weird that Mish cited Krugman. Krugman wrote some labor vs management stuff back in late 60s / early 70s. The socialist government of Sweden gave him a prize. In the 50 years since, Krugman just writes nasty vitrolic crap about how much he hates republicans. Every republican is a nazi. He got fired from Princeton (even if they put a nice spin on it, he got fired) because he wasn’t teaching any courses but was fraudulently listed as “faculty”. He was writing nasty essays for the NY Times, and not teaching, but drawing a professor salary. Now he doesn’t teach at CUNY (City University of NY) and continues to write nasty essays in the NY Times. Everyone who disagrees with him is a nazi, and all republicans are nazis. For someone who is supposedly educated and has an advanced degree, its just stupid.
Do any right wing Americans read Krugman’s hate speech? Do most “center” people read his hate speech?
Even if Krugman wrote something nice about Trump or Rand Paul or whomever… after 50 years of hate speech, it would fall flat.
Don’t call half your team “deplorables” or nazis… and if you do, don’t expect them to work with you. Expect them to think you are stupid.
Krugman is stupid. Doesn’t matter how many PhDs or socialist awards he gets. He and Biden have both failed basic 1st grade playground skills.
If you tell the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia he is a monster and you plan to get him deposed… don’t think you can fist bump him and get him to pump extra oil for you. Don’t insult people and then ask for a favor — this is a lesson most people figure out in elementary school.
Doug78
Doug78
3 years ago
Reply to  Mouse
Is it fair to say that you don’t like Krugman?
vanderlyn
vanderlyn
3 years ago
of course mish is correct on keeping .GOV out of it. SW air is a dump of an airline. flew it 2 or 3 times, and found it hideous. call me a snob, but i miss the days when only well to do people flew. the airlines gave the people what they wanted. the subway experience. travelling on the BMT line in NYC is more pleasant than steerage class on a US domestic flight.
Six000mileyear
Six000mileyear
3 years ago
Obviously airlines have not stress-tested their flight scheduling/tracking software. This is a great opportunity for someone with new ideas to solve a major problem.
MikeC711
MikeC711
3 years ago
It is rare when I agree w/Mr. Krugman, but this is one of those times. A free market will sort this out. SW will have folks clogging their phone lines for weeks looking for them to “Make it right” per the expert in everything … PeteB. I’m going to sit back and wait and see if I can catch a cheap April flight from RDU to Denver out of the deal.
Karlmarx
Karlmarx
3 years ago
Amazing how so many people who have never worked a daughter on their life poco butta Biden etc all have opinions about the few remaining companies and people that do keep the country afloat. I’m shrugging
Felix_Mish
Felix_Mish
3 years ago
Reply to  Karlmarx
worked a daughter on their life
Word “prediction” channeling a sinister Eastern European accent and reading your mind!
Zardoz
Zardoz
3 years ago
Reply to  Felix_Mish
He lookink for Moose and Squirrel!
Felix_Mish
Felix_Mish
3 years ago
Dump on that poor sap, Krugman, all you want, but you gotta admit he has a sense of humor:
there must be some way to blame Musk or someone
If that isn’t self-deprecating humor, what is it?
Mouse
Mouse
3 years ago
Reply to  Felix_Mish
its a vile man who spent the last 50 years saying that everyone who has a different opinion is a nazi.
Its a man who collected a professor salary for years, while not teaching any classes, and writing nasty vitrol in the NY Times.
Felix_Mish
Felix_Mish
3 years ago
Reply to  Mouse
Tell us what you really think. 🙂
Like, he’s really a bot whose push-down stack of enemy-names happened at the moment to be topped by [ “M”, “u”, “s”, k” ], and that pops at least one entry from its enemy-name stack per posting.
Mouse
Mouse
3 years ago
Reply to  Felix_Mish
If we secretly replaced the “real” Krugman with a chatbot that just writes something nasty about the latest republican in the news, and finished by calling said republican a nazi… could anyone tell whether this was the real krugman or the chatbot set to emulate him?
Long before Hillary labeled half the country “deplorables”, long before the political class in NYC/SF decided the space between them was “flyover country”, Krugman was labeling anyone and everyone who disagreed with him a nazi or worse.
Avery
Avery
3 years ago
They can all go bankrupt for all I care. I’d never miss them.
bobcalderone
bobcalderone
3 years ago
Reply to  Avery
But tens of millions of Americans WOULD miss them. Our economy requires a thriving air travel network! But Biden should do something useful and get an open skies agreement with the Europeans, so we can get more competition.

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