Job openings have leveled off but the data is suspect.
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary (JOLTS) report from the BLS shows the labor market continues to weaken.
Job Openings
- The number and rate of job openings were little changed at 7.4 million and 4.4 percent, respectively, in June.
- The number of job openings decreased in accommodation and food services (-308,000), health care and social assistance (-244,000), and finance and insurance (-142,000).
- The number of job openings increased in retail trade (+190,000), information (+67,000), and state and local government education (+61,000).
Hires
- In June, the number and rate of hires were little changed at 5.2 million and 3.3 percent, respectively.
- The number of hires decreased in arts, entertainment, and recreation (-42,000).
Separations
Total separations include quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer. Other separations include separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm.
- The number and rate of total separations in June were little changed at 5.1 million and 3.2 percent, respectively. Total separations decreased in state and local government education (-39,000) and in federal government (-20,000).
- In June, the number of quits was little changed at 3.1 million. The rate of quits remained unchanged at 2.0 percent. The number of quits decreased in professional and business services (-114,000), state and local government education (-20,000), and federal government (-5,000)
May 2025 Revisions
- The number of job openings for May was revised down by 57,000 to 7.7 million, the number of hires was revised down by 38,000 to 5.5 million, and the number of total separations was revised down by 29,000 to 5.2 million.
- Within separations, the number of quits was revised down by 23,000 to 3.3 million, and the number of layoffs and discharges was revised up by 10,000 to 1.6 million.
Job Openings Per Unemployed Person
Job Openings vs Unemployment
Suspect Data
Job openings are very suspect. The survey response rates is about 34 percent
Response Rates and Survival Bias Issues
- First, firms that go out of business don’t respond. This is known as survival bias.
- Second, larger businesses are more likely to have someone who routinely answers such questions.
- Third, businesses of all sizes are deciding they have better things to do than answer BLS surveys.
- Fourth, businesses that are doing well are more likely to spend the time than businesses that are struggling or understaffed
The Unemployment Level is suspect too. Response rates are low, and given deportation concerns. who wants to answer the phone or respond to surveys?
The trends are likely somewhat accurate but the numbers are bogus.
Major BLS Errors
Every month, economists and the Fed rely on very poor BLS monthly data to make decisions despite major modeling errors, data collection errors, and survival bias issues by the BLS.
The lagging QCEW and BEDS quarterly reports highlight the flaws.
QCEW Report Shows Overstatement of Jobs by the BLS is Increasing
On June 16, I noted QCEW Report Shows Overstatement of Jobs by the BLS is Increasing
The discrepancy between QCEW and the BLS jobs report is rising.
The QCEW consists of 12.2 million establishments in the first quarter of 2024. The BLS nonfarm payroll report has a sample size of 629,000 individual worksites in 2024.
The nonfarm payroll response rate is 42.6 percent with the same issues as with JOLTS.
We find out more on Friday what the BLS says.
This labor market update paints a pretty shaky picture. Job openings may look steady on paper, but with such low survey response rates and survival bias, it’s hard to trust the numbers. When more people are unemployed than there are available jobs, the pressure grows not just on workers but also on policymakers who are basing decisions on flawed data. It’s a reminder of how unreliable the system can be when transparency and accuracy are lacking. Just like people carefully research the best germany clinics before making healthcare decisions, we should expect the same level of precision when it comes to economic reporting—otherwise, the wrong choices get made at the top.
https://bookclinics.com/germany
If Trump deports or jail 500K illegal immigrants it wouldn’t dent the pool of workers
available to small businesses. They will compete with poor blacks and Latinos. Latinos work for Latinos. Arabs work for Arabs. Owners, who want to retire, will sell to new immigrants. New immigrants open small businesses that employ workers and contractors. They don’t bs online. They improve “birth and death” charts. A few single male will attack indigenous women. Other are drunk pedos. GB forcefully sent young women to Australia bc they attacked the locals. During the voyage sailors raped them on the deck. Especially those from Cork.
I could not find Shadowstats but came across this 3mo old Reddit thread which accounts for many unmentioned factors.
https://www.reddit.com/r/Layoffs/comments/1jps4x1/us_unemployment_rate_numbers_are_at_25_according/
Shadowstats is genuine garbage
It’s almost as if the people not working aren’t qualified for the jobs posted.
Nah, has to be something else.
Fake jobs people have complained about them on other sites.
oh, you mean people applying for jobs they are not qualified for and then bitching about not getting hired?
that is happening…. a lot.
Canada is still welcoming and giving financial assistance to illigal immigrants. Trump is deporting Carny is welcoming themwhile unemployment is rising, healthcare is falling apart, Pensioners-Social assistance is getting a 1.o% raise WOOPiiii
One of my nephews and his wife are woke and wanted to go work in Canada to get away from Trump at the end of his first term. They both have PhDs one in science the other in Liberal arts and two small children. They are perfect for what Canada needs. Canada rejected them as not good enough candidates and they were bewildered. I guess Canada prefers other criteria than great education, same language, similar culture and young children.
I don’t believe they’re downvoting you. The establishment trolls are everywhere. This is all what ever faster computers (that’s all AI is, folks) get you.
With all the job losses to AI, one of the future’s hottest products is going to be big, burly AI security robots.
Robocop, remember?
Don’t count your chickens before they are hatched. Illegal immigrants don’t show up in the unemployment numbers. Furthermore, when illegal immigrants stop working, they are replaced by formerly unemployed legal workers. The faster the deportations ramp up, the wider the gap (job openings increase and unemployment decreases), at least in the short term, until employers realize there are less consumers.
When I was in grade school I was a legal farm worker. I made 35 cents a week plus room and board. Dump rake operator. A year later I graduated to Johnny Popper driver. Went to town on Saturday night. Spent 30 cents at the movies and put a nickel into my savings account. My Dad was one of the wealthier people in town. That will never happen now. Anyway, undocumented workers are counted in employment data.
The fear of Trump is growing ! Epstein “suicide”, Fordo, 100% additional tariffs, deportations…
I’ll believe that when I see a white boy last more than a day cutting broccoli.
Trump wants 3%. He might get it by imposing 100% additional tariffs on countries
which buys oil from Russia or Iran. He sent Bessent to deal with China to pacify the guppies.
The collective has been calling for the cliff to arrive now for at least 18 months. It hasn’t.
I agree that these indicators noted by Mish do tell a story that the labor market is VERY SLOWLY weakening.
But the cliff is going to take way longer than anyone expects to arrive, so long as federal spending largess continues unabated at the $2T+ level. Since COVID, we’ve entered into a transition period where nobody really knows how all this is going to play out & making predictions is nearly pointless.
State spending is often constrained by balanced budget amendments, so these budgets along with unemployment indicators, as they general do, will lead the way into determining how close to the cliff we are.
Local spending is a function of property taxes & sales tax collection. Both have as yet to take a meaningful dip to lurch the economy towards the cliff. With that said, I do believe 2025 may be the transition year for a lot of tax assessments to start dipping. I know for a fact this is happening in my area, after I received the assessment appeal data from my local tax assessor showing 80% of the homes sold in the last 12 months had reductions in fair market values. But this lower revenue will not show up until late next year when the 2026 checks start rolling in. 2025 fair market values are based on CY 2025 data which are still relatively high. What’s going to determine if 2026 is uber important to local budgets is what happens to housing prices throughout the rest of CY 2025. That’s a given.
And that, of course, will depend on the 10YT. Trump and what Powell does to Fed does to push down short-term rates. IMHO, we’ve definitely entered into the period of bond investor activism, whereby they’re going to demand higher yield than what Trump & Powell want.
Ultimately, what matters over the near-term is what steps do the Fed take to ensure bond auction tails don’t start to elongate.
You’re saying, all we have to do, is to print (fake) money and buy our own debt with it to continue to prosper.
Individuals who kite checks go to jail. Nations that destroy their currency’s credibility go to the dustbin of history.
You must work for the (((bankers))).
No. I’m not saying anything remotely close to that.
That’sexactly what you’re suggesting here: “Ultimately, what matters over the near-term is what steps do the Fed take to ensure bond auction tails don’t start to elongate.”
The only way to do the above is to print money and buy bonds. (Or blackmail and force the whole planet to buy our bonds?)
First and foremost, I’m not advocating that the Fed buys bonds. I’m simply pointing out that this is the likely course they may take outside of a recession. I’m with Mish. I’d be fine if the Fed is either eliminated or severely limited in their yield control. I want them to stop paying interest on reserves. I don’t think they should be allowed to buy bonds beyond 5 years. And even then they should have a statutorilal limit.
And they are talking about cutting back or eliminating the SLR which is going to allow banks to buy bonds with reserves. Okay, while this isn’t the Fed balance sheet, it would be “reserves” which are part of the system, so it’s basically stealth QE.
I have to agree. Without the massive borrowing that has gone on since 2008, I think this would have been called a depression by now. Government debt was about $10 trillion in 2008. Now $37T and going up by $2T per year. Where would the economy be without that extra $27T of money? The big question is: How long can they do this?
The Bull Market for Economists Is Over. It’s an Ominous Sign for the Economy.
https://archive.is/Qmfft#selection-523.0-523.77
Any reduction un government employees is excellent news.
Everybody bitches about BLS data but nobody ever offers a credible alternative system.
On the contrary, a lot of people have suggested incorporating IRS payroll tax withholding data, which would be far more accurate than “surveys”, at least for non-black-market employment.
The GDP report is good on the headline number and employment not so bad according to ADP, suggesting the most recent data will probably not persuade the Fed to cut rates. That will upset Trump, too bad. Trump wants the Fed to cut rates by 3%, that’s what he says but a better rendition is he want to distort market price discovery making the federal deficit easier to service. That is a noble goal but exactly the wrong way to achieve it. Lower rates by 3% and real estate prices will rise so housing affordability will suffer as will many other credit sensitive sectors of the economy. Trying to fix economic problems via distorting free market price discovery always create bigger and more offsetting problems.
I am not saying the current fed funds rate is correct as I do not know the correct rate nor does anyone else. My hunch is it’s much closer to correct currently than it would be if the fed acted on Trump’s desires.
And how much of that do you truly believe to be true?
I did not say any of the government reporting had veracity, only that those reports would not support the fed cutting rates.
Making the fed debt “easy to service” is why we have a federal debt to begin with.
You do realize that Trump and Powell are doing a good-cop / bad-cop routine, and that any public statements are purely theater? Watch what they actually do, not what they blab about.
The Federal Reserve will continue to hold interest rates steady while slowly tightening via QT.
The Federal Government will continue to overspend as much as it can get away with.
“I am not saying the current fed funds rate is correct as I do not know the correct rate nor does anyone else.”
When you look at interest rates through the lens of:
Booming stock market
Solid GDP
Solid monthly job reports
Solid consumer spending
Solid national housing market that’s in a sales recession mainly because of the refi lock-in effect from 2020-2022 that still last month pushed then median existing home value to an all-time high, despite near normal mortgage rates
And the mother of all indicators: annual budget deficits which effects interest expense
One can easily make the case that the FFR is not restrictive enough. At most, the Fed should have only lowered the FFR by 25 BP last Sept, due to 1-2 not so great jobs reports last summer.
And let’s be VERY CLEAR. The only reason the Fed dropped the FFR by 100 BP was to pre-emptively ensure annual interest expense would start to dip for a brief period of time until the money printing machine picked back up. Well, the debt ceiling has been raised to $5T. So, the Fed will do everything they can to push down interest rates as this $7-9T in treasuries mature over the next 12-18 months, and we lurch towards $40T in debt over that same period.
If they don’t, then we move a step closer to financial Armagedón, because we know Congress isn’t going to cut spending and raise taxes.
Hey now but don’t the official UE numbers NOT include those who have been longterm unemployed
Plus the unederemplyed are not referred to.
I thought Daily job cuts had UE at minimum 25& for a few years now.
But the DJC count does not include the underemployed.