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Those 16 to 19 Years Old Have Returned to Work, Other Age Groups Haven’t

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51 comments on Those 16 to 19 Years Old Have Returned to Work, Other Age Groups Haven’t

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Labor Force Participation data from the BLS, chart by Mish

Definitions

  • The participation rate is the percentage of the population that is either working or actively looking for work. The labor force participation rate is calculated as: (Labor Force ÷ Civilian Noninstitutional Population) x 100.
  • The Civilian Noninstitutional Population is defined as persons 16 years of age and older residing in the 50 states and the District of Columbia, who are not inmates of institutions (e.g., penal and mental facilities, homes for the aged), and who are not on active duty in the Armed Forces.

Labor Market Mystery: Where Are the Older Gen Z Workers?

The Wall Street Journal asks Labor Market Mystery: Where Are the Older Gen Z Workers?

The exodus from the labor force in the pandemic’s early months has mostly reversed, but one group remains oddly absent: people in their early 20s.

For people over age 15, the labor-force participation rate—the share of people employed or actively seeking a job—dropped from an average of 63.1% in 2019 to 61.7% in 2021, and recovered to 62.2% in October. But for people ages 20 to 24, participation that averaged 72.1% in 2019 stood at just 70.8% in October. 

That equals a shortfall of about half a million workers in their early 20s when comparing the current size of that workforce with 2019 levels.

In the past, a decline in labor-force participation among younger people has usually coincided with an increase in their school enrollment, generally reflecting higher relative demand for educated or highly skilled workers, especially in a weak labor market, economists said. That’s what happened during the 2007-09 recession—but it hasn’t been the case this time around.

About 1.5 million fewer students were enrolled in college this fall compared with before the pandemic, according to the National Student Clearinghouse, an educational nonprofit. College enrollment had been declining for a decade in part because of concerns about student debt and the rise of alternative credentials.

Labor Market Reflections

That’s a free link is you wish to explore more.

Grad school is up. but overall college enrollment is down.

In response to the WSJ article I created the lead chart. Participation is down in all but age group 16-19.

Please recall my take on the October jobs report: Lost in the Strong Jobs Meme, Full Time Employment is Down 572,000 Since May

Payrolls vs Employment Since March 2022

  • Nonfarm Payrolls: +2,452,000
  • Employment Level: +150,000
  • Full Time Employment: -490,000

Also note Huge Layoffs Including Thousands at Amazon and FedEx in Peak Shipping Season

Not to worry, Biden says there is no recession and the economy is strong.

This post originated at MishTalk.Com

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51 Comments
Newest
Oldest Most Voted
klausmkl
klausmkl
3 years ago
This is nothing yet. Wait until things get reality bad.
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JackWebb
JackWebb
3 years ago
Speaking of blaming everything on Putin, the Russky-Uke situation has everyone looking at reality. They should have done it a year ago, but hubris reigns supreme. Until now, when the obvious becomes obvious: The Ukes won’t last through the winter, and cannot beat the Russkys. Gee, who could have known? Answer: Anyone with brains and integrity. I give Milley NO credit. This is what he should have said in February. To say it now is better than nothing, but only barely.
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Pontius
Pontius
3 years ago

Generous Covid policies for unemployment, waiving rent/prohibiting evictions, worthless degrees for the entitled and bank of mom and dad.

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Pontius
Pontius
3 years ago
Reply to  Pontius
*forbearance of student loan payments.
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emmanuelozon
emmanuelozon
3 years ago
They’re not hiding; they’re dead!
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StukiMoi
StukiMoi
3 years ago
When “they” do it; it’s “baaaad” childlabor….. Says the Dear Leader idiot in charge of Idiotopia. And then all the designated drone idiots, cheer and feel good about about how their Dear Leader is Goooood. Like the Tooth Fairy. Not baaaaaad, like the scary Putin Dear Leader.
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Captain Ahab
Captain Ahab
3 years ago
The USA has an education crisis, evidenced in declining test scores, drop-out rates, unpaid student loans, etc.
The Democrat solution is to buy votes by canceling loan debt, enable gender flipping, and entrust the nation’s future to the teachers’ unions.
The Republican solution remains to be seen.
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StukiMoi
StukiMoi
3 years ago
Reply to  Captain Ahab
“The USA has an education crisis”
Duh! #Dumbage.
When everyone “in charge” (of pother people’s children’s education, of course) is an imbecile Fed welfare recipient: How the heck could education possibly NOT be in realistic crisis.
Dumb people dream of a world where children are Pippi Thunberg. Not literate beings; who will then invariably and immediately recognise that absolutely everything the dimwits hold dear; is nothing but childish, imbecile nonsense.
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Felix_Mish
Felix_Mish
3 years ago
Something to keep in mind is that “jobs” have changed to being more of the “inside job, no heavy lifting” kind. New job types are even good for you – what with exercising your mind and all.
Others have noted that “rich” people in the modern world work longer hours than the working poor. That’s inverted from how things have historically been.
PapaDave has a point about the sketchiness of measurements.
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Jack
Jack
3 years ago
Reply to  Felix_Mish
Others have noted that “rich” people in the modern world work longer hours than the working poor. That’s inverted from how things have historically been.
Not sure if latter is true.
The nouveau rich and professionals have always worked hard to get ahead.
Old money has often not needed to work as hard.
Blue collar class have often either put in their hours or worked harder to earn more and try advance to be shift supervisor or foreman.
Poor people have often not worked at all.
Not sure if things today are different from the past.
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StukiMoi
StukiMoi
3 years ago
Reply to  Jack
“Others have noted that “rich” people in the modern world work longer hours than the working poor.”
Hey man, since live in an arbitrary idiotopia: We’ll just “deem” that sitting around babbling nonsense in a boardroom or courtroom; or parading around peddling platitudes about some trashy shack in a cheesy “neighborhood” to some moron who just collected a welfare check from The Fed, or picking random numbers; All done from a “boutique” resort on Zoom of course; is “work.” And has anything whatsoever in common with building a road or dam or hamburger, or performing a triple bypass, or even siging a song. Then us member of The Brotherhood of Infinite Fed Enabled Retardation, can “work hard” too. After all, anything more complimecated, would be way beyond our nonexistant abilities.
Almost 50 years after “Mythical Man Month”, the undiluted cesspool of nothing but abject retards which The Fed has handed control of The West to, still sit there mindlessly cackling about childbrained “work hours” and other such “measures.” Utterly oblivious to how completely, 100% full stop, idiotic it all is. It’s insulting having to share planet with garbage that stupid.
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Sunriver
Sunriver
3 years ago
My daughters (age 24 and 27) have worked throughout the pandemic and amazingly have been able to live away from myself.
The situation/issue is, the Dave R. prescribed method of ‘hustling’ work, as it was pre-WWII, is the new normal and many people in their 20’s would rather stay with their parents than address that reality.
Anyone that wants to work can find work. My daughters have had to work in jobs that are not career oriented but sustenance oriented. College graduates working at a coffee shop/McDonalds is very common. Younger people via necessity will need to ‘lower’ their expectations in many cases. May not sound like the America most of us grew up with, but hey working 60 – 70 hours per week, with no spouse to help, is going to be very common.
The boomer days of working at the same company/government for decades with a pension and matching 401k is over. Heck, it took amazing amounts of debt for the boomers to achieve the amazing lifestyle they achieved.
Hand to mouth is the future for a super majority of America. Oddly, the next generations may be more minimalist and multi-generation under one roof. Is there anything wrong with that? No, except for the debt the generations in front of them burdened them with.
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TexasTim65
TexasTim65
3 years ago
Reply to  Sunriver
Staying at one company for decades has been over long before now. As a member of Gen-X I don’t know a single person within 10 years of my age who stayed at one company for decades and the only ones getting pensions are government union workers.
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Jack
Jack
3 years ago
Reply to  TexasTim65
I know lots of GenX in same company 15-20+ years.
Effective workers are not let go during downturns, and will only leave on their own volition if company does not challenge, treat or compensate them commensurately.
Less effective employees often are not let go during downturns either and will stick around as often too lazy to look for another job.
Having said that I know quite a few that job hop.
Also lots of companies offer DC pensions. DB pensions more reserved for government workers.
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Captain Ahab
Captain Ahab
3 years ago
Reply to  Sunriver
About 15 years ago, I gave a lecture to an auditorium of college students, making the point that they would have a lower standard of living than their parents. After the anger died down, I explained why–mostly the result of globalization and competition–you are only worth as much as the value you add. I went on to say having a degree was not enough–the degree was the lowest common denominator. They needed to stand apart from their peers/be noticed favorably. That was the focus of the lecture. We listed attributes for success and how to develop them. After the lecture, they told me this was the first time anyone had ever talked to them about life after school.
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JackWebb
JackWebb
3 years ago
Reply to  Captain Ahab
I have to push back a bit. You might have been more effective, or at least a bit less dispiriting, if you’d phrased it differently and said that there are fewer cushions now, and therefore students need to give deeper and more serious thought to what they are studying and how they spend their time. Then give two or three (no more) useful ideas along those lines. This should be done in high school, IMO.
I recall a high school assembly where some guy who had been successful told us everything would work out. Gee, thanks so much, I thought. Now tell me how. Well, telling a roomful of college kids that everything will not work out is equally messed up. I am a bit vehement here because I still vividly recall my high school and college years in the industrial Midwest, where deindustrialization was gathering steam. Those were highly uncertain times. All I did was worry. I have never been more pessimistic than I was in 1978 and 1979. I didn’t know what would happen to me.
If you find yourself in front of another crowd of young people, try to remember my comment. Look, don’t be stupid and complacent, and don’t tell them to “follow your dream.” But don’t be some arrogant jerk and crush them. Much harder, and infinitely more valuable to both the audience and yourself, is finding a way to show those kids the practical, useful essentials of how to make it in a world with less margin for error. Yes, by all means, tell them about the narrowing margin for error. But give them something to hang onto.
But please don’t stomp on kids who are already worrying; speak not to the kid who yammers this and this, but talk to the kids who are silent and scared. No shortage of them. I was one, and I know. This is America. Don’t preach defeatism.
Class dismissed.
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MPO45
MPO45
3 years ago
I know of quite a few young American people that have moved overseas: Spain, Netherlands, Mexico, Colombia, Thailand, Singapore. Even my favorite YouTube real estate investor, Coach Carson, moved to Spain although he isn’t in his 20’s. There was an article out yesterday that Paris now has the largest stock exchange now that London has dropped due to various fiasco.
The world is rapidly changing again and there will be losers and winners, smart people will move to the places with the best opportunities.
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shamrock
shamrock
3 years ago
My niece graduated college in 2020, looked for a job, nobody hiring. Went to law school instead, will probably enter workforce in 2023. Could be a lot of grad students in that situation.
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TexasTim65
TexasTim65
3 years ago
Reply to  shamrock
I guess you didn’t read the embedded quote in Mish’s article:
“About 1.5 million fewer students were enrolled in college this fall
compared with before the pandemic, according to the National Student
Clearinghouse, an educational nonprofit”
They missing numbers aren’t in college.
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Captain Ahab
Captain Ahab
3 years ago
Reply to  TexasTim65
Look in the Meta Universe.
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Jack
Jack
3 years ago
Reply to  Captain Ahab
I have heard that the meta-verse is void of people.
Also heard something about the avatars not having legs.
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shamrock
shamrock
3 years ago
Reply to  TexasTim65
I guess you didn’t read the part where graduate school enrollment is up.
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Rbm
Rbm
3 years ago

i know a kid whos taking his college courses on line 3 states away. Hes living at home. I would think that relieves a lot of finical pressure not requiring a job. If enough kids are still zoom college i would imagine there is less needs for work in college towns. Etc.

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Captain Ahab
Captain Ahab
3 years ago
Reply to  Rbm
Beware of ‘online’. ‘On line’ is the way of the future (see MIT’s websites). However, U of Phoenix has one of the highest rates of student loan default–for good reason.
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Rbm
Rbm
3 years ago
Reply to  Captain Ahab
Agreed he goes boise state or one of those big schools. Guess whatever hes taking was not offered in person. would be guessing as to why.
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JackWebb
JackWebb
3 years ago
Reply to  Rbm
Three words: Western Governors University. It’s real and accredited.
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PapaDave
PapaDave
3 years ago
This just shows that the traditional methods of measuring are not keeping up with the changes in today’s jobs market. Lots of workers in the gig economy, self employed, short term contracts, online entrepreneurs, working online for companies headquartered outside the US, etc slipping through the measurement cracks. Which makes things look weaker than they actually are.
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Captain Ahab
Captain Ahab
3 years ago
Reply to  PapaDave
At the same time, the work environment you describe also applies to third world countries. In fact, the ideal work environment for a 21st century post-industrial country might be something quite different. One thing is certain–that ‘environment’ will not emerge given labor-union lover, Biden–he’s stuck in the 1950s.
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TheEconomist
TheEconomist
3 years ago
In the “olden days” there was one woman for every man. The men wanted their own place to entertain the women, so we all got jobs.
Now, 80% of women chase the top 20% of men via Tinder or Hinge. Those 20% of men are very handsome and so they need do nothing at all to attract women. The remaining 80% of men have no chance on a dating site, and if they dare to so much as glance at a woman in real life, they’ll be accused of rape and tried and convicted.
So for 80% of men, there’s no point in working past a subsistence level. Those who are successful can find a woman in her mid 30s who will marry them for their money and then use the family courts to strip them of their earnings and hard work, so there’s little point in doing that. This is the society we have allowed to happen, and is the one Iran is fighting to prevent.
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HippyDippy
HippyDippy
3 years ago
Reply to  TheEconomist
This sounds like it is the norm, but is it? True, Wall Street infamously started advising its male members to ensure they were never in a room with a woman alone, and this has also affected the mentor programs as well; but that only put a glass ceiling for women in finance. Which was already in place. There are a lot of men who are not able to find women, and there are more of them now than before, but that has always been the case. I don’t remember the historical numbers, but I believe that very few men have contributed to the gene pool historically. Women, on the other hand, have always had a high rate of participation in the reproductive cycle. Go figure. But Tindr and Hinge (whatever that one is) are hardly the only ways of meeting someone. I would argue they are one of the worst ways, as who goes to Tindr to find their one and only?, but that’s just my personal opinion.
I live in a very rural area, but those apps still get a lot of use around here. Yet, even though I don’t look like a male cover model, I have plenty of opportunities. More than I want. Why? Probably because I didn’t grow up socially isolated through social media and so I can actually go up to a woman and talk to her. Most of those men who can’t find a woman are socially immature and haven’t done the work internally to make themselves attractive. Hence, the female bashing. Not that the feminist movement isn’t a toxic cultural soup designed to destroy the family unit, it’s just that not all women have bought into it.
Yes, those are factors, but I think a lot of these people have dropped out of looking for work and are creating it instead. You see this during every debacle the FED and corporations create. After the dot com bust, I met many people who left programming to start up their own ventures. I see the same here. Small businesses, barely large enough to call a side hustle are being nurtured everywhere. Many of them are probably not checking in with the state to see if they can open their doors either, so they won’t be on any books. It’s the same old, same old. When all those smart people voters claim we need to have in charge or else things will fall apart mess things up, then people start creating their own economy.
I know this doesn’t account for all of it anymore than your explanation does, but why would anyone work for these corporations anymore? The internet is filled with channels whose sole purpose is as an outlet for employees who want to do a good job and cultivate long term customers, but the never ending quest for higher earnings every quarter by public corporations is doing more to drive away workers than anything else. Retail has always been a rough business, but it’s pretty much intolerable nowadays.
We have a lot of changes occurring in our society now. All this technology has not only revolutionized how we work, but how we connect with each other. We also have so much access to information now that college is pretty much dead as it stands now. There is no ROI on a degree anymore. It’s far too costly for what you get out of it today. Not that I’m complaining about mine. I have a graduate degree in History, and despite what the idiots who have never been to college claim, it has served me quite well. But I got mine in 1997, just as the higher institutions began to commit suicide with their PC and feminazi campaigns. Not to mention trying to make history sound better by using the scientific method. Who, what, when, where, and how are the questions needed, and history is far too complex for the scientific method, but I digress. The point is, for better or worse, all these transformations are coming home to roost. But don’t worry, our benevolent overlords are here to ensure the transition to nirvana goes well.
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Captain Ahab
Captain Ahab
3 years ago
Reply to  HippyDippy
There is a huge difference among degrees. A graduate professional degree from one of the co-operative education colleges (work-school) will likely get several job offers, often with higher starting salaries. A graduate in 19th-C English Literature from Podunk U will serve coffee, assuming they can’t become a social influencer based on their Meta profile.
Other factors:
1) Students have little information about careers and pathways to success.
2) So long as the money keeps pouring in, universities have no motivation to offer degrees with value in the real world.
3) Do you hire the degree, or the person? The degree merely qualifies. The person does the job, which is why the co-op programs outperform..
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JackWebb
JackWebb
3 years ago
Reply to  Captain Ahab
When I was in high school and college (1970s), it was just as confusing.
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Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
3 years ago
Reply to  HippyDippy
History is just Yesterday’s future.
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HippyDippy
HippyDippy
3 years ago
Reply to  Lisa_Hooker
And a bleak one for the near future. Though once the slave mentality has been done away with, we’ll need to buy some serious shades!
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shamrock
shamrock
3 years ago
Reply to  TheEconomist
Lol, that’s some serious pessimism, it’s always been that way.
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Avery
Avery
3 years ago
Reply to  TheEconomist
The coveted demographic is the Affluent White Female Urban Liberal, usually found in Blue suburban cul-de-sacs drinking wine in their Range Rovers. I hope Abbott sends the buses that way as a match-making service.
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Mary
Mary
3 years ago
I talk to a lot of newly minted adults in my business. Many are in the gig economy and haven’t yet learned they will be receiving 1099s this coming January 31. Even after that it will take many a while to figure out that, yes, you do have to file taxes. I expect a strong downturn of the gig economy in 2024 and a return to job hunting.
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MikeAyala
MikeAyala
3 years ago
I wonder how many of the missing have unpayable student loans? Might there be any connection or contributing factors involving student debt and the missing? Possibly fentanyl too.
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KidHorn
KidHorn
3 years ago
Reply to  MikeAyala
Not having to pay back a student loan is another reason to not have to work.
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KidHorn
KidHorn
3 years ago
My son recently graduated from college with a computer engineering degree. He could have landed a good job, but he and some of his friends are making levels for online games. I think they get commissions whenever someone buys something on one of their levels. He’s counted as unemployed, but he’s working hard at it. Works every day. I don’t blame him. He’s doing something he likes. Not sure how much he’s making though. He says some have made millions doing it.
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klausmkl
klausmkl
3 years ago
You can not blame the kids, crap jobs for bean wages coupled with massive inflation. Then we have the baby boomer generation that feels they have earned the right to do nothing and sit there. They constantly complain about any indescretion. Where I live they complain about the gardners making noise at 7am. they want it moved to 8am.
I get up at 3am and let them know 7am the music starts.
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Captain Ahab
Captain Ahab
3 years ago
Reply to  klausmkl
This boomer has earned the right to retire many times over, yet still does a lot. I’m not atypical.
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Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
3 years ago
Reply to  klausmkl
Hey, Klausmkl! Get the hell off my lawn!
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Jack
Jack
3 years ago
Reply to  klausmkl
Everyone thinks they are special.
Things have not changed much throughout history.
There have always been crap jobs that pay nothing.
We are all lucky as things are much better now than in most of history.
Most people can afford food, clothes and shelter.
And old people have always complained about 7am noise.
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Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
3 years ago
Reply to  Jack
And very soon now everyone will have a trophy!
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TexasTim65
TexasTim65
3 years ago
The age 20-24 females are probably on Only Fans or a sugar daddy site like Seeking Arrangement.
The age 20-24 males are probably trading crypto / stocks using stimmy money or living in parents basement.
I briefly looked at the article and chuckled when I read about ‘quiet quitting’ and ‘work your wage’. My dad always told me “The only person who is going to pay you what you think your worth is yourself by owning your own business / contracting etc”
People at that age who are doing that are life’s losers with little to no ambition and won’t be getting ahead in the long run. When I was young when just called those people ‘lazy and entitled’ and virtually none of them amounted to anything.
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Matt3
Matt3
3 years ago
Reply to  TexasTim65
I sure agree with that. My youngest son decided to become an auto mechanic. He started 3 years ago as the lowest paid hourly employee at the dealership. I suggested that he arrive 10 minutes early everyday and just do everything asked and then ask for more to do. In about 18 months, he was the highest paid hourly. Now progressing as a technician and towards a master mechanic.
Employers will invest in people that show desire.
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TexasTim65
TexasTim65
3 years ago
Reply to  Matt3
Yes they will.
More importantly, your son is investing in himself and one day he’ll be able to open his own shop if he so desires.
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Captain Ahab
Captain Ahab
3 years ago
Reply to  Matt3
Motivation is 90% of success.
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JackWebb
JackWebb
3 years ago
Reply to  Captain Ahab
Even in my snottiest, dumbest days — and I had my share, believe me — of youth, the following words never once even occurred to me, let alone passed my lips: “It’s not my job.” I was the other way around; if there was a job to do, I wanted to do it. This served me well.
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JackWebb
JackWebb
3 years ago
Reply to  Matt3
Very smart kid. If he has time, he should go to night school and study to learn how to be an electrician. Pay is better, and even if he never uses it he’ll do well to have some other craft skill. He should strike while the iron’s hot, because once he hits about age 35 it’s unlikely that he’ll be able to learn whole new subjects. He won’t have the same amount of time or mental energy. The future will belong to skilled tradesmen. I hope he finds a woman who gets that, and who genuinely likes men. I hope he genuinely likes women.
And tell him to avoid debt at all costs, especially credit card debt, and to remember that every dollar spent now costs a lot more dollars later. Anyway, he’s in the trades. Good for him! He’s one of what I call the hammer swingers. Lots of ’em in the countryside, and I treat ’em very well whenever I get the chance.
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