Let’s review the Senate plan, the House Plan, and Trump’s Plan.
Competing Plans
- Trump: “Just Say NO.” NO means the Nuclear Option. Kill the Filibuster.
- Senate: Pass funding bills but promise a vote on Obamacare extensions.
- House: Wait. Refuse to even agree to have a vote on Obamacare extensions.
Plan Problems
- Trump: Senate Republicans will not go along. They rightfully fear what may happen the next time Democrats are in control.
- Senate. Why should Democrats accept a promise of a vote on Obamacare when they know the result? Besides, Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R., S.D.) is making a promise that is not his to make. House Speaker Mike Mike Johnson (R., La.) said he will not make any guarantees on holding even a vote.
- House: The House appears to be the immovable object.
The Democrat’s Alternative
The Democrat’s alternative plan is to restore Obamacare funding to 400 percent of the poverty level.
Democrats may be even more emboldened after Tuesday’s disastrous Republican results in elections in New York City, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, California, Georgia, and Texas.
Democrats Set to Block New GOP Proposal to End Shutdown
The Wall Street Journal reports Emboldened Democrats Set to Block New GOP Proposal to End Shutdown
Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R., S.D.) has set up a Friday vote that aims to fund most of the government through as long as January while simultaneously passing a trio of full-year bills funding military construction and veterans programs; the legislative branch; and the U.S. Agriculture Department. But the timing of that vote was still in doubt, with many shifting parts of the proposal still in play.
The package, if enacted, would reopen the government temporarily and provide pay for embattled federal workers, including air-traffic controllers, likely alleviating flight delays and cancellations driven by absenteeism. Because the measure funds the Agriculture Department for the full fiscal year, it would end worries over food-aid funding for millions of people.
Mish Comment: This would be a Republican victory, but why would Democrats accept it?
As Friday began, Democrats and Republicans were still at odds over the particulars of the legislation, pointing to a bumpy day ahead. Among other things, Senate Democrats are seeking to reverse the layoffs that the Trump administration initiated at the start of the shutdown as well as to undo the cuts to infrastructure projects targeted at blue states. They also want to void “pocket rescissions”—the maneuvers that White House budget chief Russ Vought used to claw back congressionally appropriated funds at the end of the last fiscal year.
Mish Comment: Democrats have upped the ante and now want more than just Obamacare.
On Friday morning, Trump renewed that pressure in a social-media post: “Just say NO (Nuclear Option!). TERMINATE THE FILIBUSTER!” Thune has opposed eliminating the filibuster and said such a proposal lacked enough Republican support anyway. But Trump’s repeated hammering on the issue could dent lawmakers’ resolve.
Mish Comment: NO! is going nowhere, for good reason.
Thune has promised to negotiate on the subsidies after the government reopens and has also offered a guaranteed vote, but not a guaranteed outcome. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R., La.) said this week that he wasn’t making any guarantees on holding even a vote.
Mish Comment: Thune is making promises that are not his to make. And even if the Senate would go along with them, Johnson has a different form of no!
Democrats say that the Trump administration is intentionally making the shutdown worse. A judge in Rhode Island ordered the Trump administration to pay food benefits for November after the administration said it didn’t have enough funding to cover the full amount. Sen. Patty Murray (D., Wash.), the top Democrat on the Senate Appropriations Committee, said in a social-media post that she had “never seen an American President so desperate to force children and seniors to go hungry.”
Mish Comment: The question is who will get the blame. Republicans and Democrats both think the other will get the blame. As anger, builds the Democrats appear to be winning the blame game.
The Improbable Math on Killing or Ending the Filibuster
It takes 60 votes to get around a filibuster but only 51 to kill the filibuster outright. Does that seem a bit odd?
Nonetheless, that’s where we are. But there are not 51 votes to kill the filibuster. Nor are there 60 votes to bypass the filibuster.
The Journal notes “Angus King of Maine, Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada and John Fetterman of Pennsylvania—have joined with Democrats in support of an interim spending bill. “
I believe the Journal means joined with Republicans.
With 53 Republicans on board, the addition of King, Masto, and Fetterman would give the Republicans 56 votes.
Sorry! 56 can kill a filibuster outright, but it’s not enough to end one. Moreover, Republican Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky has voted against the spending bill. That means that a total of eight Democrats would be needed to join with Republicans to reach 60.
Votes Against Killing the Filibuster
- 47 Democrats/Independents
- Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R., S.D.)
- Sen. Thom Tillis (R., N.C.)
- Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R., Alaska)
- Sen. James Lankford (R., Okla.)
- Sen. John Cornyn (R., Texas)
That’s a minimum of 52 and I am confident we can add Rand Paul to the list.
I discussed Trump’s “NO!” idea in Trump Tells Senate Republicans to Kill the Filibuster
Trump’s plan is a nonstarter. Thune’s Senate plan is a nonstarter. Johnson’s House plan is a nonstarter.
Meanwhile there are 47 hypocrite Democrat senators who wanted to end the Filibuster when Biden was in the White House but don’t want to now.
Conclusion
All plans have major flaws. It’s not about persuading one or two votes which Trump might be able to do.
Something has to give, but it’s not clear what that something is.
Historically, the compromise is more of this for more of that. I expect a rise in deficit spending will result from this impasse.
How Bad an Evening Did Republicans Have in Yesterday’s Elections?
In case you missed it, please see How Bad an Evening Did Republicans Have in Yesterday’s Elections?
That’s what has angered Trump and emboldened Democrats.
Silly Stawman: Show me where in the US Constitution it says one needs 60 votes in the Senate to pass a spending bill.
Mish
Q: Who said the Constitution says that?
A: Nobody!
Silly Strawman #1:
Until Trump vetoes a spending bill he cannot be held responsible for the government being shutdown.
Mish: Sorry: You do not get to decide who is to blame. Voters do and the Nov 4 elections show where they think the problem is.
Silly Strawman #3 and the absurd Statement of the Day: Trump agreed not to kill the filibuster. … So much of the main stream media is spin and opinion without verification
Mish: What an amazing hoot!
5 hours ago: Just say NO (Nuclear Option!). TERMINATE THE FILIBUSTER!
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/115508709196254115
So much bullshit here is easily refuted.
Republicans control the supreme court, house of representatives, senate and executive branch but Mike Johnson has the gall to say republicans don’t control government. That’s hillbilly thinking for you and there’s no need to wonder why the economy is spiraling into an economic disaster.
Thankfully, the voters are coming to their senses and voting these clowns out. Midterms coming right up then presidential elections.
The problem with that line of thinking is that 2021-2024 was a giant s show and that’s what we’ll toggle back to. Can i get your exit strategy political leadershp crew in here because I know what i saw the 4 years prior ain’t what I want to flip back towards either. Why does anyone think the Biden/Harris/Pelosi/Schumer/woke/dei/illegal-immigration/green-new-deal/”inflation reduction act” crew will be different than last time. Can’t we get a dang choice here, why must it be either a rock or a hard place?
“why must it be either a rock or a hard place?”
Because you’re not thinking beyond two dimensions. You are stuck in a binary mindset where it’s dems or repubs. I don’t have any answer for you, if you think things are bad now, you have no idea what’s coming in 5 years and 10 after that. If you are 70+ then just ride the upcoming hell till the reaper comes by and takes you home to peaceful pastures.
The answer for me is to simply leave the paradigm altogether which means leaving the United States. If you’re not willing to do that then you’re stuck with your binary world.
Funny, I thought you’d already left. Silly moi. I hear Australia now has a lottery with a $10k ticket. No guarantee you’ll get in.
Australia is nice and I love to visit but it’s a tax hell. No way I would ever become a tax resident there unless the tax laws change. Same for New Zealand.
So go already! Damn! How can we forget you if you won’t go away?
Just because I’m going away doesn’t mean I won’t be posting comments here JoJo. I could never leave your pithy comments behind and I want to know how you like those new Mamdani apples in the Big Apple.
Remember, first New York then the nation.
You’re going somewhere where they have internet? We’re all waiting breathlessly for your reveal of the place you are going to that is so much better than the USA. With that info, we can compare apples to apples.
Honestly–yes you ‘might’ be right, but it doesn’t matter with public opinion NOT supporting you. And the reason, the democrats control the mass media. I keep using the terms ‘brain washing’ and ‘mind control,’ but that is what it is.
SO…. Until the Republicans get effective leadership, it is more of the same.
Dems own the media? 100% owned by RW billionaires I know gopers are “not smart” but stop showing off
You have chosen to believe the most well documented liar in history
100% econ publications said the US econ, though not what we liked, was the best in in the world. That, you won’t believe because it is fact based. You should be ashamed
If this is true then the GOP is idiots for not eliminating the filibuster. For as it stands, the Democrats are blocking the Republicans from governing and then blaming the Republicans!
Two downvotes from Trump chumps!
The midterms are a LONG WAY away (and then it is two months after that time until Congress changes to the next session), especially for the likes of oh so poor air traffic controllers who make excellent salaries but yet I hear politicians stating that some can’t make it to work because, they can’t afford to put gas in their cars. [lol]
So LONG AWAY that Steve Bannon is worried about ending up in prison for the crimes they’ve already committed.
https://www.commondreams.org/news/bannon-tells-gop-seize-the-institutions-of-government-now-or-we-re-going-to-prison-after-2028
Why panic if there’s nothing to worry about?
Bannon is full of crap, as a general statement.
Mish,
If the GOP is going to be blamed for the shutdown then it is absolutely idiotic for them not to eliminate the filibuster on spending bills. The filibuster has been removed for judges, so why not eliminate it for spending?
It is self-destructive of the GOP to allow the minority party to shutdown government and then have the GOP blamed for it. Trump is right that the GOP needs to not commit suicide on some old fashioned tradition that is not even followed today, except for allowing the minority party to play mischief.
So, the people in NY voted for mamdani because of Trump? Lol, that’s hilarious.
The filibuster has been around a long time but the problem now is that a senator can declare a filibuster without having to do the work of speaking for hours on end. Make it hard to do and then you won’t have this sort of nonsense. Trump was elected to govern not the Democrats so end this type of filibuster so he can govern.
works both ways=
i propose that the d’s agree to end it for a year ….then revisit it in 2026.
there
Behind all of the nonsense talk is the fact that the Republicans do not want to have to vote on the release of the Epstein files. They will have to do this once the government is back to work… Conspiring to conceal evidence or tamper with it is a crime. Trump will sign their pardons in advance?
What government shutdown?
True. After more than moth of government closure, if you aren’t on the government’s food welfare handout program or flying then nothing much has changed.
Maybe the government should stay closed until 2026?
Instead of reopening the government with a “more of this for more of that” deal, it could be both sides want a government shutdown and are finding ways to blame the other side.
What do fiscal hawks have to gain from a shutdown? Appropriations for non essential programs will expire and won’t get funded, forcing states to take over those welfare and social engineering programs. Well, if states are running social programs, then there is no need for the federal government to run and fund them.
Progressives want voters to suffer so they can promise utopia, but give total government run healthcare / welfare paid by those who create jobs.
NYC will be a litmus test.
Oh good grief. There are no fiscal hawks. None. Not one.
The House’s insistence of not negotiating at at all is beyond stupid.
Now it looks like the Dems have lowered their demand from a 10-year extension of the enhanced ACA tax credits to a 1-year extension. Honestly, I think this is a worse deal for the Reps. There are a lot of ACA enrollees in many red districts. A 10-year extension would have gotten this topic off their backs for a long time – with the excuse of “the Dems made me do it!”. In the grand scheme of things, $35bil a year is not that much money. Now they’ll have to deal with this topic again before the mid-terms next year.
$35 billion a year is hogwash, more CBO Washington DC math that never plays out.
Here’s the reality for 2025 alone per Perplexity:
If you can’t afford health insurance, then go without. Such is life. Plan better in the future.
Those without insurance end up in the ER and have increasingly expensive care – all on the State taxpayers’ dime.
You might advocate turning them away to bleed out in the parking lot if they have no insurance.
ER will ONLY treat the immediate problem. Stem the bleeding if you will. Then you are sent to seek follow-up/continuing care elsewhere. Too many people don’t understand this, seemingly including yourself.
You all thought it would be a TACO.
I don’t know how Republicans can think about this past Tuesday and imagine there is anything about this shutdown that is going to help their cause. There is no win for them here no matter what they do.
The win is to eliminate the filibuster on legislation to fund the government.
Reality is that the only thing that prevented the Democrats from eliminating the filibuster when they had the majority were two moderate Democratic senators who have since retired. Rest assured the Dems will change the filibuster once the need arises.
You give American voters too much credit. Republicans are superb messengers. They will tailor the message so that the majority of center voters will lean towards Republicans.
I don’t think it’s going to fly this time, frankly. We’ll see.
Veteran Day, Thanksgiving Day, Xmas Day: who is running out of time until Dec 31
Obamacare terminal day: the reps or the dems ?
TPTB cycle voters through:
(A) “gridlock”
This condition is ideal for TPTB. The majority and minority parties can betray both their bases by saying they had to make horrible concessions in order to pass some other important legislation. Voter donations continue, for a while.
But if the gridlock lasts too long, voters stop accepting the excuses and start contemplating voting for 3rd parties or independents. Voters lose faith in the system, including the political system and their media cheerleaders.
Ergo, occasionally TPTB must mix things up, by toggling us into…
(B) “one-party rule”
This condition obviously only begins with some kind of lopsided victory across multiple jurisdictions at multiple levels, because the prior status quo was exhausting and exasperating.
At the outset, voters feel tremendous relief. It’s cathartic. But that quickly changes, because the victorious party still serves only TPTB. That’s just as it had done while it was in the minority, but now it’s really obvious. So, they lose their one-party rule almost as quickly as they won it.
Back to gridlock.
Since voters have short memories or perhaps little experience because they’re young, they soon forget they’ve “seen this move before”. So TPTB can just keep bringing new faces in and use the same old tricks.
Otto Von Bismarck used emergency rule several times to suppress Antifa, BLM, Bernie’s and AOC’s socialists org and publications. He used it to bypass Chuck’s parliamentary opposition. And against the kulturcamp of Mamdani.
You’re time-traveling now, Michael.
You get an “up” arrow for originality!
In case it isn’t clear why the USA cannot afford ObamaCare, here are healthcare costs for the retired generation:
Average Health Care Costs by Age
70-74 $10,000 – $15,000
75-79 $15,000 – $20,000
80-84 $20,000 – $30,000
85-89 $30,000 – $50,000
90+ $50,000 – $75,000
The young in every society always take care of the elders. What’s your point?
But hey! I’m okay with warming up the Soylent Green tanks for anyone, young or old, who is obese, in poor health or who can’t survive w/o drugs, if that is what you are alluding to.
in biden/obama society , the private sector aging republican voter pays for everythng
Medicare is not ObamaCare.
About 1 in 5 US small businesses rely on ACA – about 3.3 million entities. Most small businesses work on small margins that have been stressed by tariffs. And most agree 2026 is already going to be recessionary.
Today the Senate Dems have presented a proposal to extend ACA credits for a single year. It is expensive, about 150-160 billion for 2026.
If passed by simple majority in the senate and house, which is possible, it could still be vetoed.
But that veto would be the tell, the president creating severe conditions to invoke the insurrection act ….
My old business partner, a Trump voter, is a self-employed small business owner and relies on Obamacare for his family (wife and two kids.) Christmas will be looking pretty lean over at his place this year. Most of the white-pickup-truck-and-a-ladder contractor types around here are in the same boat, and should be realizing it right about now. I suspect more than a few will wish they hadn’t blown all that PPP money they stole back in 2021.
If everyone went up and down their own ladders the world would become a better place, or at least less crowded.
Only three competing bullshit plans. None with a real solution. All typical of politicians NOT solving the problem they caused in the first place.
Democrats proposed a one-year extension of ACA To End Shutdown . Of course it was not accepted by Republicans.
SO, plan # 4
Pass the one-year ACA extension and get a one-year CR.
Then, immediately put healthcare reform at the top of the current agenda. Trump kicks it off with ‘Bankruptcy 101.’ The UGLY side of $38 trillion debt. Either the gov’t deals with it NOW, or your US dollar won’t be worth a peso. Churchill and Reagan could carry it off. Trump–maybe if he stopped talking about himself.
IN other words, call it a CRISIS caused by Democrats/Republicans past and present. Admit that the Dept of Gov’t Efficiency was on the right track, but done incorrectly.
Follow up with a media blitz to reveal illegals abusing the ACA system. And personalize it. Add in citizens abusing food stamps, and welfare generally. Expose the crap. Ridicule democrats and republicans both for all the waste and abuse in healthcare. Admittedly, Trump probably can’t do it, so use AI.
Then, with public opinion fuming, go to every other gov’t program. The SBA for example. Military procurement. Etc. Target every budget over $100m, to start.
Set up House/Senate committees to review all the DOGE cuts, AND WRITE the Legislation needed to implement–all by April 1, 2026.
Grow some nuts. Neuter the gov’t beast.
Democrats need to start expanding their list of demands. Before the Republicans start waving their white flags.
What happened to their Confederate flags?
The problem for Democrats is that they are dealing with an untrustworthy actor. With Trump you can’t rely on trust and reciprocity as is the case for normal counterparts. Whatever the Democrats get in the end, they will have to to try to limit the room for deception and manipulation afterwards. Put differently, this shutdown could drag on for quite some time.
Nothing like a totally closed mind. Both parties have a trust problem, and a reckless spending problem….
It’s against federal regs for federal workers to call in sick and work another job. It’s considered fraud and subject to termination and possible jail time.
Yeah, let’s see how that works with ATC, and see the entire airline industry and travel go belly up…
Paper pushers and admin people are one thing. ATC – a whole other animal.
Melvin carefully stipulates firing only those who work another job, but I bet a majority of “law and order” Americans would support firing any ATC who dares to call out sick during the shutdown.
The ones who show up are not only rewarded with no pay, but they are forced to work 10-12 hour days 6 days a week in a job that is already stressful and has high turnover.
Syracuse airport is supposed to have 28 full-time air traffic controllers. Right now, they only have 16 on staff and eight trainees, who are not allowed to work unsupervised.
Financial advisers routinely suggest at least 6 months of expenses in an emergency fund. Maybe the federal employees should receive financial counseling as a job requirement?
Any idea how much those TSA luggage screeners make? Shame on them for not having an emergency fund when their housing expenses take up 50% of their low pay? I guess you don’t call yourself rich for nothing since you’re completely out of touch.
Good job for the airlines CEOs to do.
Why not go to your nearest airport and lecture all the federal airport workers – including the controllers – how they should have prepared better financially and how they need to “suck it up” and show up and do their jobs? See how well that goes when you tell it to them in person instead of anonymously saying it in a chatroom.
Individual responsibility is dead.
I wouldn’t dare! The sooner the passenger airline industry collapses…collapses again… collapses again and again…the better.
Far less pollution with only private jets in the air.
The downvoters can go the airport with Melvin. He could use some backup as the reaction of the workers could be violent.
Jailtime is possible for anyone anyway, with ICE being allowed to put anyone in jail without proof. And termination is what trump is after anyway, so it seems there is not much to lose right?
Mish. Thank you. Well written and concise article. And now I understand the situation better. Great job. Be well.
Who comes here to downvote appreciate comments like this?
Show me where in the US Constitution it says one needs 60 votes in the Senate to pass a spending bill.
Trump shutdown the econ during covid. He might shut it down again in 2026.
Until Trump vetos a spending bill he cannot be held responsible for the government being shutdown. This current idiocy is all on Congress. Sure, the GOP listens to Trump but each GOP congressional member will be elected or defeated based on their name on the ballot, and not Trump’s.
So you think he’s even dumber than I do. Wow.
The Count was last seen on Sesame Street.
Show me where in the US Constitution it says one needs 60 votes in the Senate to pass a spending bill.
Q: Who said the Constitution says that?
A: Nobody!
Congresscritters are getting paid right now while soldiers and air traffic controllers are not. Even their staffs are not getting paid. Wonder how long they will continue to fund their staffs out of their own pockets?
It all comes down to Trump’s influence in the negotiations.
On a scale of 1-100, how stubborn is Trump?
That’s why I think it will end with a filibuster.
Trump agreed not to kill the filibuster. It was noted that this is an action that is not typical to reverse course based on Thune, Johnson and others. So much of the main stream media is spin and opinion without verification
Trump posted Twice on Truth Social imploring Republicans to kill the Filibuster!
So what the hell are you talking about?
5 hours ago: Just say NO (Nuclear Option!). TERMINATE THE FILIBUSTER!
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/115508709196254115
So much bullshit here is easily refuted.
Obamacare will be dead after Dec 31. The rest is bs.
The American people have a plan which Mish left out of his list, it’s to vote out republicans.
Chuck is Biden/McCain inverse. Killing Obamacare is more important than shutting down the gov for half a year, or more. SPX will drop. Hungry people will protest in the streets. Trump will declare an emergency rule to stop the bloodshed. He will blame the dems. No filibuster. Trump doesn’t need the dems, the reps and the SC.
So you are saying he is a Dictator?
You might be getting out in front of your skis there .
And you apparently voted in someone that wished death on children. Not to mention a socialist mayor for NY City. Socialism? How innovative.
Oh gee Democrats are going to be in control, really? That is something to celebrate?
Democrats are a very big part of why this country is floundering and now threatening to kill people and their children under the guise of what new democratic party policies?
Sure, Trumps an asshole too many times over but thanks to the far left that ruined the democrat party we are now on the way to being a 3rd world country.
So no, I will not celebrate the democratic party winning anything until they clean up their act
Such bitter anger dripping from every word in your comment. Sad. You must be new here, I didn’t vote for anyone, the writing’s been on the wall for a very long time as you point out. I already have plans to take care of myself and my own, it’s called an exit strategy.
Got one?
Good luck….
I’ll be here trying to make America better by supporting those around me. I’m not going anywhere
I’m angry? Yeah. I am angry that politicians get to say shit like that and not he held accountable.
That’s right!
Are you really as stupid as you sound?
The long answer is – yes. I scroll past all of Michael’s comments…
I don’t know… I see this as Project 2025’s goal to kill the ACA, country be damned…
Do Trump supporters sound any other way?
That remark is stupid too.
I think English is his second language.
I’ll tell you, it’s the economy and American people that will sacrificed. I read somewhere today that air traffic controllers are now required to work 6 days a week without pay. Do you know what forcing someone to work without pay is called? Slavery.
That’s Trump’s America for you.
Or Schumers America for you. The Dems prefer funding illegals to passing a clean bill and getting American air traffic controllers paid.
It doesn’t really matter though as within 5 years your countries economy will collapse under debt and there won’t be any government funded healthcare.
“The Dems prefer funding illegals…”
What illegals? I read comments here frequently that Trump has “secured” the border and there are no more illegals flowing in, in fact millions (or billions) are being deported daily so why is this still an argument here?
Didn’t Trump deport 2 million people so far or more and with a secure border preventing people from coming in then WHY THE F*$K are health care costs and insurance costs not going down? Explain it to me like I’m a five year old child and if you can’t then your argument is just a bigoted attack on immigrants that has little or nothing to do with healthcare issues.
They are going up because of Biden’s inflation.
Ah right. The inflation that is not driven at all by tariffs.
Baby alert! We have another baby in the comment section using their Biden pacifier to sooth themselves.
Are you the king or queen of the name callers?
Are you saying they will never be paid?
Why don’t you tell us when they’ll get paid.
I will tell you. They will get paid for all the work that they are doing when they agree to stop the shutdown. They will get 100% plus any overtime.
When you are dealing with a bunch of life long, self-centered bureaucrats living off of the public dole, combined with a demented, deranged and narcist president, what more could one expect?