Ho Hum. House Republicans threaten to shut down the government. Ignore talks of default. 
Another Budget Comedy Show
Government funding expires on October 1. Some hard-line Republicans are yapping again, just like they did earlier this year and at least twice before.
The Wall Street Journal reports Hard-Line Conservatives Talk Tough, and Government Shutdown Looms. My comments are inline in braces[ ].
House dissidents say they’re serious this time.
[Mish: We can safely stop there, laugh, and be done with it. For extra grins, let’s proceed with the comedy show threats and demands with my inline comments].
After putting Kevin McCarthy through 15 ballots to win the House speakership, a group of hard-line Republicans has wrestled with how aggressively to respond to what they call his failure to keep the promises he made. The dissidents shut down the floor in June to protest a debt-ceiling deal with President Biden. In July, the faction blocked a floor vote on one of 12 annual spending bills, complaining that GOP leaders had relied on gimmicks to reach McCarthy’s commitment to cut spending to fiscal 2022 levels.
Now, with government funding expiring on Oct. 1, hard-line Republicans returning to work this week are signaling they are ready to use tougher tactics to extract concessions. The expected face-off could lead to a government shutdown this fall, or even potentially trigger a vote on keeping McCarthy as speaker.
“The power of the purse in the House of Representatives is the only power we have,” said Rep. Keith Self (R., Texas), another of the 20. “So I think momentum is building—courage is contagious.”
[Mish: Courage is contagious. Just like the last 4 times leading to total capitulation]
The disputes are many, but they center on cutting federal spending and stepping up border security, with opposition to Ukraine funding and complaints about Justice Department prosecutions of former President Donald Trump and others also in the mix.
“If a temporary shutdown is more concerning to you than our $2 trillion deficit and $33 trillion national debt, I’d politely suggest you’re part of the problem,” Rep. Ralph Norman (R., S.C.), another of the dissidents, said in a post.
“Nothing happens in this town without force,” Rep. Eli Crane (R., Texas), another of the 20 conservatives, wrote in a social-media post. “In this spending fight, we can & absolutely must force: A secure border; An end to the weaponization of the DOJ & FBI; An eradication of woke policies from our military; And let’s not forget ripping up the blank check to Ukraine.”
[Mish: Raise your hand if you think any of that is going to happen. All they will do is kick the can for another year or two then brag about a meaningless $2 billion budget deficit reduction that won’t even happen.]
With just weeks until a possible shutdown, McCarthy and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D., N.Y.) have agreed that Congress will need to pass a short-term funding bill, known as a continuing resolution, by the end of September to buy time for a full-year agreement.
[Mish: I had not even read that paragraph yet before I made my kick the can announcement. Nothing ever changes.]
The continuing resolution is also expected to be the vehicle for several Biden administration priorities. In August, President Biden asked Congress for an extra $40 billion for items the administration termed critical, including $24 billion in defense, energy and humanitarian funding for Kyiv. He also asked for almost $4 billion to deal with strains at the border, and $12 billion for the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s disaster relief fund. He later said an additional $4 billion in disaster-relief money would be needed.
[We can easily see where this is headed already. In return for a $24 billion increase in defense, the House will give extra funding for what Biden wants. Since Biden wants $40 billion, the compromise might be an extra $40 billion for defense.]
Both Schumer and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R., Ky.) have backed that extra spending.
[Mish, once again I had not even read that. I am commenting paragraph by paragraph. It would be a surprise if any party leader really really wanted to do anything, not that they would get it done if they tried.]
House Freedom Caucus Chairman Scott Perry (R., Pa.) said that while conservatives do want to advance their priorities, they aren’t aiming to shut down the government.
“That’s not the goal,” he said. “I would just encourage anybody—leadership and rank-and-file members—to plan on staying up all night to get it done. But the answer can’t be to surrender before the fight begins.”
[Mish: Of course not. The answer will be to surrender after starting the fight, just as always.]
Debt to GDP Alarm Bells Ring, Neither Party Will Solve This
Everything you need to know about the deficit is right here: Debt to GDP Alarm Bells Ring, Neither Party Will Solve This
US Debt held by the public is soaring out of sight. It’s even worse than it looks for reasons I explain. ….
No One Will Fix This
Compromise is always more spending for this in return for more spending on that.
And both parties want to spend more on the military.
“Neither party will fix the deficits. Neither party will do anything about mounting debt. No one will do anything about anything because the political system is totally broken.” Mish
Please see the above link for a series of charts on the debt, deficit, Medicare, and demographics.
Meanwhile, rest assured another budget showdown humiliation is coming. Republicans will surrender after starting a budget fight, like always. It’s more humiliating that way.
Well the dems voted no on all nominated republicans allowing McCarthy to finally get voted in. I wonder where we would be if a few dems voted yes on one of the moderate congress men. Would have marginalized the far right on all of this.
The republicans are funny. Supposed to be the party of business smart people. But the first thing they want to do is cut funding to the irs and national parks. About the only two sources of income the gov has.
More like the party of graft.
The public should be onto the game by now. Wash, rinse, repeat. Neither party is going to fix the problem. At what point in Rome, did the bread and circuses end? The routine has played over and over again, ad infinitum, down through the centuries.
“You will own nothing and be happy.” How many times down through history, has wealth been confiscated, during a Kondratieff Winter?
2022 Non-Defense Discretionary Outlays: $910B That is what the party claiming to be GOP wants to cut from.
2022 Defense Outlays: $751B
2022 Non-Discretionary: $4.1T
See a problem there?
Debt-to-GDP ratios are obviously contrived metrics. Unprecedented large deficits “absorb” a disproportionately large share of N-gdp (as gov’t spending is a component / factor of gDp).
To appraise the effect of the federal budget deficit on interest rates, it is necessary to compare the deficit, not to the debt to a GDP-ratio (a contrived figure), but to the volume of current net private savings made available to the credit markets.
The 2022 deficit, $1.4T ($475B interest expense) is absorbing c. 25 percent of net private savings ($5,726T).
I guess those numbers are wrong. Seasonally adjusted annual rates indicate a yearly total. That would mean that the deficit absorbed 100 percent of net private savings?
It will stop when the printer breaks. When it breaks? Nobody knows. Could be 5, 10 20 years from now but it will break. The era of couping countries and printing money is ending. If you are 50 or above enjoy the ride. Everyone below that mark is screwed really bad but that is for them to figure out and they will figure it out.
Take care of it all just pass deficit reduction asshole tax!
They have to spend more just to keep up with inflation. They can’t stop now. They could spend more carefully, but that is never put on the table. Wonder why?
They had better cut spending …. but, they do not DARE consider cutting handouts that supply me with freebies. 🙂
100% CORRECT. HANDS OFF MY FREE SHIT. I DO IN REALITY HAVE A GREAT DEAL. UNCLE SAM HAS BEEN A NET GIFT TO ME FOR DECADES.
Crime is up since “defund the police”, during a summer of love, when BLM
troskied the white house. New immigrants don’t commit much crime. The privileged natives rob/ destroy wealth .
When you have a coalition of 20 people in a 435 member legislative body you don’t get to dictate to the other 415 members. That’s why “the squad” never gets anything either. Minor concessions is really all you can get.
20 people is just enough to put on a little circus.
best circus ever is ‘turets without regrets”. only the kewl kids have seen it. pearl clutching stuff. lots of full frontal nudity too.
Reality and the school of hard knocks will fix it. This is what Democracies produce. Any politician who tells the truth has no chance to get elected. People want their free lunch.
Gingrich shut Clinton gov down in 1995.
“Neither party will fix the deficits. Neither party will do anything about mounting debt. No one will do anything about anything because the political system is totally broken.” Mish
– While I agree with you that “Neither Party” will fix the deficits, I do think that one party is more inline with the “Citizens Values” overall, than the other party. I base this on what I see from “Both Parties” over the past 4 years. I will vote for the one that I think is more aligned with my values.
– We shall see about mounting debt, but the verdict is still out until the budget is dealt with. I can’t stand Mitch OR Kevin, but Kevin still has a chance to be True to His Words. Mitch is frozen in place as usual…
– I like to think of the “Political System” as in dire need of redirection, back to its roots. Whatever party seeks that route has my vote and Tens of Millions of others IMHO!!!
we need function to block nit wits. and chronological old to new comments. i come here to make dough, learn, and have laughs. but some folks really too dense. and pearl clutching doom porn types………crime rates down massively in past 30 years in most us cities and rural counties……. and folks frightened of own shadows.
Feel free to go somewhere else.
Trust, us, you won’t be missed.
ha ha ha. if you come here for friends that is just so precious. bless your heart, sweetie.
They’re just men of delicate constitution… the slightest pain or inconvenience is magnified by their pusillanimity. Scroll on, and take their posts as a reminder of what oxygen deprivation can do to the brain.
ha ha ha. sound advice. thanks.
There are few fiscal hawks. It is all a show. I am old now and I have been watching this show for over 50 years. They will “fight real hard for us”, but in the end they “just didn’t have numbers.” “Just wait until next election. We need you to get out there and fight harder for us.” Last time we had this battle, MTG gave in and our Colorado “friend”
stayed home and never even voted.
I no longer trust any of them. I have been a slow learner, but I am praying that some of you will catch on to the game quicker than I.
One only needs to look at all the funding Mitch had gotten for Kentucky to understand how the game is played. A fiscal conservative – only when it makes political sense.
mitch the bitch is freezing up like a dying twat
at least you admit it. one must be very naive to believe the pro wrestling style fakery past teen age years. i mean special needs abilities. it blows me away grown ass men do. D v R, with colored panties cheerleaders.
Maybe the fiscal hawks can tie funding to the delivery of unredacted emails between Hunter and Joe.
the last fiscal hawk was quiet cal, calvin coolidge.
Bill Clinton balanced the budget, eliminated 250k government jobs and reformed welfare. It can be done.
he did a bamboozle with Rubin. shortened duration on Tbills to make it look good.
“Another Budget Comedy Show”
One can always hope these 20 hold together and shut things down in some meaningful way.
I’m sure it’s mostly wishful thinking, but maybe this time will be materially different. Given the border crises, Biden’s profuse spending, and rampant crime in dem cities, there’s a lot at stake.
Toot, Toot!
There, Zardoz, I went ahead and save you some time.
I’m tearing up… my first self-identifying kook. Keep the kookwhistle with you always.
Yep! Right-wing, nut job (aka kook). That’s me. And I’m proud of it.
Keep giving me the toot, toot’s and I’ll do the same. Woohoo! Your boy, Biden, sucks BTW, just in case you’ve still got your head stuck in the sand.
ha ha. lots of them.
The Debt/GDP analog is NDX 2000/2024 :
A 30Y decay between 1945 and 1973, a humps and an explosion to 181%.
NDX was in a 2Y trading range between 2014 and 2016, before breaching the 2000 peak.
The Debt/GDP goes straight up from 2023 to 2053, without backing up, before/after breaching the 107% ratio. When the tsunamis fade destruction will follow.
Debt as % of GDP has two verticals up in 2008 and in 2020, thereafter the chart
extrapolates to 181%. From Q4 2023, or so, this chart might have a deep correction.
Perhaps more than one correction until 2050, deeper recessions than in 2008/09.
Debt/GDP might rise in stepping stones, but well below 181%. The R aren’t joking…
No need for technical analysis. All you need is this one chart that covers over a hundred years of when to buy and sell. 2023 to 2026 are going to be very good.
https://ritholtz.com/2010/08/58265/
You’re welcome.
thanks papa d. one of my favs is the dow/gold ratio long term chart.
the GOP stopped believing in any sort of fiscal discipline with IKE. nixon and raygun were grifters. raygun tripled the debt. i was 20 and figured out he was a con man before he took oath of office. the average amerikan middlebrow is a whiner. but they love free lunches. so grifters like biden back to forever give them the free lunch. just dine and dash and have the kids pay it. weed stocks to the moon. jump on board.
Lol! I like your style TT! Good to have a sense of humour.
nixon followed lbj. Debt/GDP decayed between 1945 and 1973 when the
swamp kicked nixon buTT.
you have been HAD laura engels. go back to the little house on the prairie
Regan tripled the debt, signed the largest tax increase in American history and signed the largest amnesty for illegals bill. He was a fraud as a conservative but he knew how to manipulate the rubes. Ron was a political genius and accomplished salesman.
yes he was. a lifelong actor and pitch man for military industrial complex, GE……….many nitwits still have NOT caught on. which in itself, makes me LOL
When Obama was sworn in on January 20, 2009, our national debt stood at $10,626,877,000,000.
In a little under 14 years 8 months, as of September 7, 2023, our national debt stands at $32,935,650,000.
The last three presidents have seen $22,308,773,000,000 added to our national debt.
Collectively, it’s more than tripled under the last three administrations.
That is absolutely absurd and there is no end in sight.
At some point, there will be no proverbial road to kick the can down and everything will go to you know what.
If you look 14 years prior to that (1995) it was 4.8 so it doubled in that time frame.
If you look 14 years prior to that (1981) it was 1 trillion so it quadrupled in that time frame.
The point is, it’s been rapidly increasing for a LONG time now.
This political theater has been going on my entire life. I learned long ago to ignore it.
Better to focus on your health, family, friends and wealth.
Mish has a great blog. He brings up important things for people to be aware of and some pretty good analysis to boot.
Yet many of the comments here are often from people who just want to keep playing politics or spread moronic conspiracy garbage.
I contend that the country would be better off if we stopped being a nation of whiners and once again became a nation of hard workers and problem solvers.
But, as usual, there is nothing I can do about that. So I continue to focus on working hard to improve my own personal situation. Which is what I look to keep getting from this blog. Info that I can use to improve my situation.
Our best days sadly are in the rearview mirror.
“…moronic conspiracy garbage.”
Musk said that most of the conspiracy theories about Twitter turned out to be true. It took a conspiracy to blow up the Nordstream pipe. The CDC/FDA have withheld certain information on the Covid shots, which required a conspiracy. The public was fed official false narratives. Truth was was falsely called misinformation. RFK Jr. has been smeared as a misinformation spreader, but people should do some actual research of their own, instead of trusting propaganda from the CDC. The McDowell triplets all exhibited signs of autism within 24 hours of a vaccination. The first, after 2 hours.
My solution (although it won’t happen either) is to restore taxes to what they were before the Bush Tax Cuts in 2001 and then cut spending to achieve a balanced budget based upon the revised revenue. There will be howls of protest from both sides (too high for taxes and too low for spending) but to me it is about the right amount of taxation (still lower than most other “advanced” countries) with enough safety net. Perhaps then people and politicians will attempt to make government more efficient.
You are right, the uniparty talks a lot and does nothing. Both parties are bought and paid for by special interests. The CIA/FBI and the other intelligence agencies have so much dirt on these people that they dare not cross them and try to destroy their radical left agenda. Until the citizens of this country wise up and shutdown this country until sanity is restored, things will only get worse. I have no confidence at all that we have enough people left in this country to make this happen. Best guess is that we continue to circle the drain until the country collapses. I assume that is what the elite have in mind so that they can complete their totalitatian takeover.
Come on!! It is not just the radical left wingnuts…It is also the radical right wingnuts…Both extremes continue with their BS, manipulating, brainwashing and stealing from the ones who need it the most. Bill is time to send Trump to jail…
if you are over 16 and still caught up in the pro wrestling D v R performance, you have been HAD, at best, or a complete idiot most likely. i do love the audience participation in our surround sound idiocracy film.
What happened presumed innocent until found guilty?
Margie and The Brow will put on a heckuva show though.
Your comedy is sad but true. I hope I’m not the only one who looked at the debt to GDP and shook my head.