Gee, who could have predicted this? 
Judge Orders Government to Begin Refunding Tariffs
The Wall Street Journal reports Judge Orders Government to Begin Refunding More Than $130 Billion in Tariffs
A federal trade-court judge on Wednesday ordered the Trump administration to start refunding the more than $130 billion it collected in the global tariffs invalidated by the Supreme Court last month.
Following a hearing involving a filtration company’s fight for a refund, Judge Richard Eaton at the Manhattan-based Court of International Trade issued a written order directing the administration to begin the process of refunding importers. He set a hearing for Friday at which he asked for updates.
More than 2,000 lawsuits have been filed by companies—including big names such as Costco Wholesale, FedEx and Pandora Jewelry—seeking to recoup their money.
The judge’s order requires U.S. Customs and Border Protection to issue refunds by recalculating the initial duties importers paid, excluding the tariffs voided by the high court. Eaton also said the court’s chief judge indicated he will be in charge of settling the refund litigation.
Larry Friedman, a partner at Barnes, Richardson & Colburn, said this means the government has to issue a refund to everyone who paid the tariffs. “This is the order I hoped for, but never expected to see,” he said.
Judge Smacks Expected Administration Response
In court on Wednesday, a Justice Department lawyer asked for Eaton to pause his order while the government appeals, but the judge denied that request.
The judge said the repayment process should be straightforward and grew impatient when a Justice Department lawyer said the government hadn’t yet formalized its position on refunding the tariffs, which President Trump imposed by citing a decades-old law. “Your position is clear,” the judge said. “The Supreme Court told you what your position is.”
The Justice Department lawyer, Claudia Burke, said that any refund process would be time-consuming for the tariff collector, CBP. The government agency would have to manually go through millions of import entries, she added.
“We live in the age of computers,” Eaton said. “It must be possible for Customs Service to program its computers so it doesn’t need a manual review.”
Trump Sideswipes Supreme Court
“Wouldn’t you think they would have put one sentence in there, saying: ‘Keep the money,’ or ‘Don’t keep the money’, right?” Trump told reporters. “I guess it has to get litigated for the next two years.”
The litigation is nearly over already. Trump will appeal and quickly lose.
Who Got Things Wrong?
For many trade lawyers, Eaton’s order came as a surprise. They had been expecting judges who heard the initial cases challenging Trump’s tariffs to also lead the decision-making on refunds. One of the cases that ultimately went up to the Supreme Court was decided by a three-judge panel that Eaton, an appointee of former President Bill Clinton, wasn’t on.
The legal filings piling up at the trade court seeking refunds have largely looked very similar, but lawyers in the case that Eaton heard on Wednesday did something others didn’t: They asked for an emergency order to stop the government from finalizing the amounts importers paid on goods that were subject to the tariffs.
Kathleen Claussen, a law professor at Georgetown University, said it was remarkable that one case out of thousands has transformed the course of the refund litigation.
Who Got This Right Early On?
June 6, 2025: Reciprocal Tariffs Are Dead, but Trump Has 7 Other Options to Discuss
Trump Will Lose
One of my delusional readers said Trump would win this 9-0 in the Supreme Court.
There is almost no chance the Supreme Court will go along with such nonsense and it should be obvious why.
The three liberal judges will all be against Trump. I believe Chief Justice John Roberts and Justice Amy Coney Barrett are near-certain votes against Trump as well.
Justices John Roberts, Neil M. Gorsuch, Brett M. Kavanaugh, and Amy Coney Barrett have all ruled against Trump at times.
So start with 3 certain and pick 2 more.
August 27, 2025: Can Trump’s Tariff Revenues Help Pay for the Federal Budget Deficit?
Hypothetical Vote Count
The three liberal justices are certain to vote against Trump. That means we need two more.
Pair 1: Barrett and Roberts
Pair 2: Barrett and Gorsuch
Pair 3: Gorsuch and RobertsIf I am correct, I think Barrett is already on board. I can’t help but think Roberts will go with the majority, and perhaps decide.
If it’s pair 2, add Roberts for a 6-3 decision. The bigger the majority, the more cover for all of them.
Note that those picks were in advance of the Appeals Court decision.
January 1, 2026: Fearless Predictions, Ten Key Events to Expect in 2026
#1: Trump will Lose His Supreme Court Battle on Reciprocal Tariffs
Expect a 6-3 margin against Trump, possibly 7-2. I rate this a 75 percent chance.
Then If he loses, then there is about a 60 percent chance of at least some of the money will have to be refunded.
Trump will moan the SC is killing the best economy in history. He will also say that the ruling will have no impact at all. This is illogical of course, but seriously, expect both statements.
Trump will pursue other avenues of doing the same things with mixed success (using the word success in terms of what Trump wants, not what’s good for the country).
#2: Trump will Lose His Supreme Court Battle on Birthright Citizenship
Expect a 7-2 vote against Trump. 9-0 would not be a surprise.
I rate this a 90 percent chance.
#3: Trump will lose his Supreme Court battle over the right to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook.
Expect a 6-3 vote against Trump. I rate this a 80 percent chance.
One down, two to go on Supreme Court Trump calls. Click above link for the rest of my 2026 calls.
I discuss the unemployment rate, AI, health care, the midterm elections, and more.
February 20, 2026: Supreme Court Strikes Trump’s Reciprocal Tariffs In 6-3 Vote (I Told You So)
Forgive me for bragging, but I got every justice correct.
Beautifully Written Gorsuch Concurrence
For those who think it important for the Nation to impose more tariffs, I understand that today’s decision will be disappointing. All I can offer them is that most major decisions affecting the rights and responsibilities of the American people (including the duty to pay taxes and tariffs) are funneled through the legislative process for a reason. Yes, legislating can be hard and take time. And, yes, it can be tempting to bypass Congress when some pressing problem arises. But the deliberative nature of the legislative process was the whole point of its design. Through that process, the Nation can tap the combined wisdom of the people’s elected representatives, not just that of one faction or man. There, deliberation tempers impulse, and compromise hammers disagreements into workable solutions. And because laws must earn such broad support to survive the legislative process, they tend to endure, allowing ordinary people to plan their lives in ways they cannot when the rules shift from day to day. In all, the legislative process helps ensure each of us has a stake in the laws that govern us and in the Nation’s future. For some today, the weight of those virtues is apparent. For others, it may not seem so obvious. But if history is any guide, the tables will turn and the day will come when those disappointed by today’s result will appreciate the legislative process for the bulwark of liberty it is.
February 20, 2026: Big Tariff Refunds Are Coming. How Much and How Soon?
The Supreme Court did not discuss refunds. They will be up to the Trade Court. Messy?
Expect refunds. That was also my prediction. Most didn’t, even those who expected the courts to smack this.
It Doesn’t Have to Be Messy
Following Oral Arguments, I commented … ” I appreciate the logic of Gorsuch who stated that a refund is the traditional remedy for unlawfully imposed fees.“
But why should it be messy?
Simple Process
- The Administration know IEEPA tariff money collected.
- The Administration knows who it collected money from.
- The Administration refunds the money it collected.
I truly fail to understand how this can be messy, unless the administration purposely tries to make it messy.
But why should it be messy?
“We live in the age of computers,” Eaton said. “It must be possible for Customs Service to program its computers so it doesn’t need a manual review.”
Bingo.
Well, Trump is refusing to return illegal taxes he collected from loyal MAGA voters. How does MAGA feel about that? Maybe MAGA voters should refuse the refunds?
So shouldn’t the Public get the refunds because all we heard was how these tariffs were just passed on to us we would be paying the Tariffs! And would drive inflation higher!
Bullshit again!
No problem! It’s only the people’s money. Put it on the tab.
The problem is it isn’t OUR money…. A lot is just a 38 trillion credit card!
Presidents cannot impose sweeping tariffs because such tariffs are illegal taxes. Even a Supreme Court full of Trump appointees has come to this conclusion. If Trump blocks or sabotages the refunds, there would be a very strong case for impeaching him.
It may be a form of Tax but if I don’t buy the goods then I am not taxed! I would rather have a choice!
LOL! The treasonous criminals in this administration do not appear to be bound by any laws or the constitution. Not only are they going to triple the debt, but they are going to STEAL as many real assets from America and the world as they can.
Will the refunds reopen closed companies and rehired laid off employees? Will those former owners and former employees ever vote Republican again?
Most will vote for Republicans again. About 40% of the country has decided to join a cult. Terrible for our country but it is better to accept reality and act accordingly.
No to the other two questions.
Crazy talk! Unless you agree there are two Cults…. Demons and Repugnants
Mish was right. I was wrong.
Well you’ve been wrong about a whole lotta things….
So true.
Lol Sentient the walking contrary indicator
Zag when I zig.
I’ll still enjoy your posts.
Trump needs to immediately create a one time tax of 130 billion on importers so the money nets out to 0.
After all the end consumers really paid that duty not the importers. Yet they stand to make fat profits at tax payer expense.
Hence a one time 130 billion tax on importers revenue should net things out to 0.
Here we go. Taxation is controlled by Congress not executive branch. This whole debacle was done incorrectly from start (no congress authorization) and now you want to do same, to again stable genius putting another tax (again unlawful).
I mean this admin keeps digging themselves into bigger and bigger hole. So doing another stupid thing will not surprise me. I am sure majority of America just hoping for November to arrive finally.
It’s shocking how many people believe Trump can do anything he wants.
He’s been taking a string of “L”s this year.
Wait until November. There will be a long line of Republicans who will join him in the “L” column.
Wasn’t Republican position that there was no effect of tariffs on the prices and hence on consumers?
Good news! That’s just a small portion of the apparent trillions of dollars Trump brought in with the tariffs
The end-user, the consumer, who actually paid the tariff won’t see dime one. Nice windfall for everyone else up the chain. There is only one defense against this insane injustice — keep your purchases to the absolute minimum. Fuck it all, so done with this.
Some companies, including Amazon, itemized the tariffs. I wonder if that means that the consumer will be reimbursed. I know, just thinking rhetorically out loud …
as reminder
USA gov runs $2.6 trln 1 year deficit, as start of march 2026
good luck!
This money will be paid out of funds remaining after the $2000 rebate checks are sent out, right?
LOL. That got spent the last five days in the Persian Gulf.
Actually, the admin wants $2000 from every citizen now as additional funding request to congress for Iran war (aka combat operations). Just came out and it seems to have bipartisan support in the House.
No worries though, it will just be added to the huge debt tab.
Is there such a thing as “unjust enrichment” in the US. In some jurisdictions this a concept where if someone receives funds not attributable to a loss, they are considered to have been unjustly enriched and would only be entitled to the amount they actually lost.
In this case the companies would not be entitled to refunds to the extent they passed the costs on to the consumer. That amount would very difficult to calculate in most cases.
It would be a messy but fair result.
The rest of the refunds would then go to the consumer. I would envision $1,700 cheques to every American.
unfortunately, in this case it is likely too theoretical to work on a practical basis.
Any attempt to unscramble this egg is messy. What about someone who bought an American product to avoid the tariff? What was their “loss”? I agree that this is a windfall for corporations. Best thing would have been for the goobermint to just keep the money.
No, the best thing would have been to ask Congress to pass (after deliberations and CBO analysis) a tax increase labelled ‘tariffs’.
Then the legality would not be an issue.
I’m sure our True Patriot MAGA brethren are planning their assault on the Supreme Court as we type. Searches for “what city does the Spreme Cort be in?” trending.
Trump is doing to importers what he did to contractors that worked for him. Don’t pay and drag it out in the courts. Trump has been a big abuser of the legal system since the day he was born.
Beautiful photos!
Thanks
Consumers ultimately paid for the tariff through increased price for the goods. So, consumers should get the refund, not the company that collected & then passed the tariff to the Treasury.
I couldn’t agree more strongly.
Those companies should not be skimming billions in profits from this. Instead we the people will be paying billions to give fat bonus profits to importers who lost nothing.
Nice deflection for Trump.
“Fat bonus profits for importers”? They had extra illegal expenses imposed onto them for the privilege of doing business in the USA. By one man alone, who could have gone to the in-his-pocket Republican Congress to legally pass this tax increase. But he refused.
And now you’re chastising the businesses for asking for their illegal taxes back. My god, what has happened to the Republican party in this country?
That would be fair – which is why it won’t happen.
Sounds like you believe Trump’s lie that foreign countries pay the tariff. They do not.
US companies pay the tariff to Customs based on the tariff rate applied on what they imported, and they will simply be refunded what they paid.
Companies do NOT “collect and then pass the tariff to the Treasury”. The tariff comes out of the companies pocket, not some foreign country.
Consumers will not receive anything from Customs, because they did not pay the tariff directly to Customs. Customs has no record of what consumers bought.
Time Out: Hey Mish! I love the photography!
Kudos for calling it Mish. Trump is making a huge mess of 2026 and I suspect he’s just getting started. Billions for tariffs and billions for wars, alienating allies, who’s going to lend us money to pay for it all?
You are from all the profits you are making.
People seem excited about the tariffs being refunded but that means you, me and anyone else who has money is going to be paying for that in order to fatten up the profits of some importers who didn’t lose anything.
Trump’s Iran war is going to destroy Japan and South Korea’s economies along with every other Asian nation but Japan was the country buying US Treasuries. They aren’t going to have money to buy those anymore when their economy craters.
I have ways of minimizing my taxes, it’ll be the schmucks that pick up the tab.
where is my 500 dollar doge ck and my 1500 tariff refund ck???
Trump will blame the Supreme Court
We’ll have to plunder it from Venezuela and now Iran.