Trump seems emboldened that he has not blown up the global economy yet.
Trump’s Letter to the EU
We have had years to discuss our Trading Relationship with The European Union, and we have concluded we must move away from these long-term, large, and persistent, Trade Deficits, engendered by your Tariff, and Non-Tariff, Policies, and Trade Barriers,” Trump wrote in the letter to the EU. “Our relationship has been, unfortunately, far from Reciprocal.
Starting on August I. 2025. we will charge The European Union a Tariff of only 30% on EL, products sent into the United States. separate from all Sectoral tariffs. Goods transshipped to evade a higher Tariff” ill be subject to that higher Tariff. Please understand that the 30% number is far less than what is needed to eliminate the Trade Deficit that we have with the EU. As you are aware there will be no tariff if The European union, or companies within the EU decide to build or manufacture product” in the United States and in fact we will do everything possible to get approvals quickly, professionally, and routinely. ln other words. in a matter of weeks.
The European Union will allow complete, open Market access to United States with no tariff being charged to us. If for any reason you try to raise your tariffs to retaliate, then whatever number you choose to raise them by, will be added to the 30 percent we charge.
The full letter to Ursula von der Leyden, president of the European Commission, is on Truth Social.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen posted on X that while Europe would continue working toward an agreement with the U.S. before the Aug. 1 deadline, they would also continue to “safeguard EU interests on the basis of proportionate countermeasures.”
Trump’s letter to Mexico President Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo is also on Truth Social.
Trump’s Letter to Mexico
Dear Madum President.
It isa Great honor for me to send you this letter in that it demonstrates the strength and commitment of our Trading Relationship. and the fact that the United States of America has agreed to continue working with Mexico. Despite our strong relationship, you will recall the United States imposed Tariffs on Mexico to deal with our Nation’s Fentanyl I crisis which is caused in part my Mexico’s failure to stop the Cartels who are are made up of the most despicable people who ever walked this earth, from pouring these drugs into our country.Mexico is helping me secure the border but what Mexico hos done is not enough Mexico still has not stopped the Cartels who are trying to turn all of North America into a Narco-Trafficking Playground. Obviously. I cannot let that happen!
Starting August 1 , 2025 we will charge Mexico a Tariff of 30% on Mexican products sent into the United States, separate from all Sectoral
Tariffs. . Goods transshipped to evade higher tariffs will be subject to that higher tariff. As you are aware there will be no tariff if The European union, or companies within the EU decide to build or manufacture product” in the United States and in fact we will do everything possible to get approvals quickly, professionally, and routinely. ln other words. in a matter of weeks.If for any reason you try to raise your tariffs to retaliate, then whatever number you choose to raise them by, will be added to the 30 percent we charge.
The Trade Deficit is a major threat to our Economy and, indeed, our National Security.
Trump is hell bent on blowing up global trade. And he wants everything made in the United States, oblivious to costs of doing so.
The US would become the world’s highest cost producer, exports would crash, and inflation soar.
The only sensible action is to wait Trump out.
Related Posts
July 9, 2025: Trump Slaps Brazil With a 50 Percent Tariff Over Treatment of Political Ally
The tariff Bizarro World gets more bizarre.
July 10, 2025: Canada Adds 70 Percent More Port Capacity to China to Escape Trump’s Tariffs
Credit Trump for pushing Canada closer to China.
July 11, 2025: U.S. Ports Plead with Trump to Delay Tariffs on Chinese Cranes
Proposed tariffs up to 100% on Chinese cranes could significantly raise port upgrade costs.
July 11, 2025: How Trump Made Copper Arbitrage and Tariff Front Running Great Again
The copper arbitrage trade is one for the record books but it is winding down.
Is Silver Next?
Gee I always thought trade imbalances were from buying more or less of another country’s goods than they do of yours. I guess wizard Trump has figured out truths nobody in human history ever saw before. No wonder his supporters rank him 1 and God 2.
a lot of variables go into what causes a trade imbalance
Every term in this discussion is a lie.
Reciprocal, who pays tariffs, what the tariffs are, the import/export numbers, the amount of the deficit, “unfair” tariffs, the getting ripped off, the moralistic tone, the playing the victim … not a single term can pass any scrutiny, it’s all made-up bulls¡t
I understand reshoring, but creating enemies gratuitously is not the path.
Reshoring requires long-term strategy, details, sober reassessment — none of that is happening.
If Trump is so concerned about the trade deficit, why not bring home the many thousands of troops occupying other countries like Germany, Japan, and Korea? There are 50,000 troops in Middle East bases surrounding Iran. (How would Trump like some reciprocity there, Iran having bases surrounding the US?) 700 US military bases strewn around the world creating a trade deficit, spewing out $ with zero return.
I wouldn’t call it a trade relationship – it’s a diplomatic relationship.
The host country provides a space for the US to put its base. In return, the US provides certain protections to the host country.
On the individual level, there may be trade – military people may spend their dollars in the host country – or they may not, living entirely on the base.
The 700 US foreign bases require massive spending of US$s abroad. That is the US taxpayer sending huge quantities of $s abroad (that they earned but do not get to spend domestically or at all)… At least with spending on imports, we get something for the spending.
The MIC masters instructing Trump will not allow that, we all know that’s a fact
I mean, if markets will play along, then why not? Yes the consequences to the real economy will not be good and may lead to a drop in EPS, but markets will think that just means rate cuts are coming. Bonds are selling off a bit but not to the degree that will force Trump to stop, and they too might rally on the expectations of rate cuts & recession as they keep doing occasionally (and why they have been a losing trade since 2020).
Tomorrow 7/14: Red SPX instead of red tomatoes. Leo Terrel will replace DC mayor Muriel Bowser
Congrats on the specific and correct red SPX call for today.
Oh, wait…
Mish,
Can you do a post regarding the following? Would be interested in your insights here:
https://seekingalpha.com/news/4466905-us-budget-balance-unexpectedly-flips-to-surplus-in-june
No tomatoes in Walmart.
None in Home Depot either. I guess we will all have to go without…
If watermelon is next ==> no Lycopene. 50% of Americans eat junk food everyday. They are hooked to the Mag10: McDonalds, Dunkin, Burger King, TACO, Wendy….who took over the world and dominate it since the sixties. There is no shred of fiber in junk food. Without fiber they can freeze it an ship it all over the world for quick cooking and quick consumption : salt, sugar, junk oil and carbs.
Well it looks like that’s a % that’s History for now. Kennedy is and has already made some food changes, and many are not waiting for the start date, and are doing so immediately. This is a Great thing! Between MAHA & MAGA we will be OK!
Sunchips have fiber.
just had some in my breakfast omelette. Avacado too.
As everyone knows we are incapable of growing tomatoes and must import them. Those that do manage to grown here are only grown by imported Mexicans. It is rumored that Europeans can grow tomatoes but only if they have imported Mexicans too.
Yesterday I bought in the farmers market : two Romaine, one Kale, peaches, cabbage, zucchini…Tomatoes will come soon. It’s a good year for farmers. It’s a cash business. Last year was a disaster. They sell a lot of sourdough bread for $9/$10 instead of cookies.
Much of our tomatoes in France come from Spain who are almost Mexican and accounts for why they can grow tomatoes. Some tomatoes are marked from the Netherlands but I really don’t believe it. French tomatoes are obviously grown by illegal Spanish workers since the French can’t grow tomatoes.
The Netherlands tomatoes would be hothouse.
They grow tomatoes in Iceland, too! They’re very small, but flavorful.
Some farmers markets are good some have the same produce as grocery stores. I see road side stands selling cherries the same brands as in Winco for triple the price. The good ones are growing and selling their own but it’s a very short season for growers. $9 bread is ridiculous if they pay $9 why not $15
I grow my own, and am looking at them right now. Many friends do so as well. We also have places in town to leave overstock for those that can’t or don’t grow there’s. Not as big a problem as one thinks, and I can’t grow a few months a year. Freezers work great!
The problem with burying one’s head in the sand is that your opinion never changes because nothing you see changes. These tomato deniers are self-fellating.
I agree, and many do bury out of denial. I choose eyes wide open, and treat each instance as it pertains to at that moment. Things change way too often to be stuck in any stance for long on a specific topic.
Tariffs are a perfect example of this IMO. Every day, and more than once on some days, things change. How can someone take a stance on something so fluid, and not defined as the end point.
Sometimes Judgements can wait, and must, to be properly placed Judgements. Our MSM has a Massive Issue with this, and no understanding yet, on how silly it makes them look. They are often left backtracking, or bastardizing their original thoughts as a result.
None at the Apple Store, either. May want to grow your own.
Daniele Lacalle, a libertarian, likes what Trump is doing. He likes what Mish hates. Add Israel, AIPAC, Rothschild and Soros to Tucker five millions hateful fans. They liked Masoud Pezeshkian more than Trump.
Just shows that the world “libertarian” can mean anything.
And the point is?
Read Mish and listen to Daniele Lacalle in English for more balance.
One obvious thing the EU should be doing is getting the Nord Stream II pipeline repaired and back in service. The US under trump has become far too unreliable of a trading partner and it is unwise to rely on the US for anything while trump is in office.
The EU needs to react to the trump/US threats to Europe seriously. Ending the EU’s dependence on US gas is of critical importance.
So trump has driven Canada, Brazil, Mexico etc into increased trade with China and Europe with increased trade with Russia.
3D chess my ass! Trump can’t play checkers against a ten year old and win…
<
I take it that you are for peace in Ukraine and renewed commerce with Russia. If so you and Trump are on the same page making you at least a partial Trump supporter.
The Nordstream II pipeline provided Russia a lever to control Germany, which in turn can control Europe. Relying on a belligerent country for energy supplies was a national (in this case continental) threat.
How has Russia acted belligerently towards Europe in the past 30 years?
You’re joking right? Invading Ukraine is obvious. Shooting down MH17 was clear too. And now we have a shadow war where pipelines are cut by Russian ships, hacks that are done from Russia and much more.
Europe? Vlad never struck me as a wanna-be slumlord.
several assassinations and attempts across Europe, arson attacks etc, Jesus man where do you get your news????
Instead, they chose to rely on a country that treats them like a bitch??!!
What the hell?!
– One obvious thing the EU should be doing is getting the Nord Stream II pipeline repaired and back in service. > Excellent idea, and then it can get blown up again, and they will be set back 10 more years. Good plan…
– The US under trump has become far too unreliable of a trading partner and it is unwise to rely on the US for anything while trump is in office. > Yes, asking for “Fair Trade” seems a bridge too far for the EU. Wait until they start trading with China/Russia, and watch them cry, cry, and cry some more. China/Russia could care less about the EU, and will destroy them if given the opportunity, so yeah go ahead and give it to them… it worked out so good last time!
– The EU needs to react to the trump/US threats to Europe seriously. Ending the EU’s dependence on US gas is of critical importance. > The EU has got to come to grips with the fact that the U.S. will no longer overpay, and under deliver. We care greatly about your Country, but not on the backs of U.S. Citizens, any longer. Play or Pay dearly are your choices, or side with your opposition, and get crushed. It’s laughable that “Fair Trade” is an issue for the EU, and some still wonder why they are so screwed up…
– So trump has driven Canada, Brazil, Mexico etc into increased trade with China and Europe with increased trade with Russia. > Not in the least… They have asked for “Fair Trade” and that’s it! Let them all trade with one another, and see how they do together. I bet they pay double in no time, and go backwards even faster. China is in big trouble right now, and trade is the issue. They lose it, they lose a lot, and can’t get it back from others.
– 3D chess my ass! Trump can’t play checkers against a ten year old and win… > Trump is well into His Game and winning handily. The MSM and Bought and paid for Shills in various forms, will never say so, but it’s true. They will all fall in line, after their bluster backfires, and they already know that’s going to happen. They are trying to squeeze the best deal for there Countries, but Trump is giving them The U.S. Deal, and they best take it IMO.
IMO ????
Well buddy opinion are like a**holes, everyone one has one and your wrong.
That’s your opinion, and you have every right to it. Hey, can you let me know a few things please, when they happen of course.
1. Tariffs are proven to be a bad thing, and with “Facts”.
2. Russia and Ukraine sign a Peace Deal, and Trump is highly involved, and instrumental in it.
3. China capitulates and signs Trumps Tariff Proposal, or Trump will decide it for them.
4. We reach $5 Trillion in offshore NEW $$$ flowing into the Country.
5. Democrat Leadership (REAL & RINO’s Too), start to Capitulate, and forget gaining back control of their Party. Ousting select Old Dems from Power, and getting what they thought, was the New Party Leaders in charge, but working for them.
ETC…
Poor Donalds delusional dementia is getting worse by the day. He is lashing out at every country in the world save Israel. The diagnosis of trump being a malignant narcissist sounds more plausible with his every utterance.
Margins for our corporations took a 20% hit during trumps last nightmare term and now it appears it will be worse.
The saving grace is that Mish has us well informed that these tariffs will be declared illegal and unenforceable.
Thank goodness for the checks and balances built into our government when we have a president that can not control his impulses.
Welcome to trump shitshow number two!
>
No they didn’t. Corporate sales and margins increased under Trump’s first term. By 2020 US firms recorded their highest profits and profit margins compared to the GDP ever while unemployment dropped to 3.5%.
Yes, and if Corporate America really jumped on board with America First, some of the current all time high profit margins could be redirected towards investing in US production.
Because in the grand scheme of things, corporate profits are kind of like a tax. Consumers pay extra above what’s really needed. Sometimes by gargantuan margins.
Take stock buybacks, for example. Wouldn’t there be a more useful economic growth for these hundreds of billions of dollars?
Let’s take another example: Apple TV. How many billions has Apple spent launching a streaming service that’s clearly not their core business? Imagine what things would be like if Apple used that money instead to invest in microelectronics fabrication, copper mining & smelting or even building rare earth metal magnets?
And something tells me Apple TV is NOT a profitable venture, whereas those three vastly more productive uses of capital would be by miles & miles.
That’s the ticket!
The rule change that occurred under Reagan that permitted stock buybacks created a feedback loop that is hard to break. It made stock options possible and that made a very rich and creative startup industry but at the same time it encouraged these same companies to use their profits to buyback stocks to keep the prices of those stocks up and not into capital investments and above all not into dividends. There is good and bad and I am not sure whether it would be good to forbid stock buybacks in general. Before the rule was changed, companies had a habit into rolling extra profits into ventures they knew nothing about nor knew how to run. They called it diworsification as a play on the word “diversification”. These ventures often turned into financial disasters.
The problem with stock buybacks is they are not a productive use of capital. Nothing is ever going to change that. At a minimum, they should be scaled back to a very modest percent of income.
And the big difference between then & now is that we have this giant manufacturing entity that we’ve outsourced way too much national security related strategic goods to. And I’m not just talking about China. Globalism comes to mind.
What it all comes down to is a big fat change in National Will. It’s about the right policies & messaging. It’s about explaining to the American people how you intend to get from Point A to B. What the costs / sacrifices are going to be. What the benefits today & down the road will be.
I’ll finish up with a very controversial person, MTG. There are lots of reasons to be uncertain or even critical about her. But I tell you what. Ever since she’s become the DOGE Committee Chair, she is on fire. She gets what America First means. She’s laser focused on being a Trump ally but also sifting through the BS & saying, “Hell no, America comes first, no matter what.”
It’s that kind of change in mindset that’s sorely needed in Congress.
You beat me to it! Trumps first term was an amazing term as President. It’s partly why he Handily won again! No Wars, massive Prosperity and Happiness all around. Since his first term, it’s been a disaster for Politicians as they have floundered horribly, I so welcome Him back over the Puppet/Pen Master!!!
The Dems have made such a hard turn left towards Socialism that it’s metastasized into cancer:
Millions of anarchist Antifa.
Millions of illegals who won’t assimilate into American culture.
Millions of brainwashed white kids who have college debt & are underemployed or worse.
Tens of thousands of illegals foreign nations from countries like China & Iran who are lying in wait for orders to do harm to America.
The moderate Dems are being gobbled up by a “sanctioned” foreign invasion that’s attacking us from the inside.
Lol! Let’s look at GDP numbers for recent presidents over their terms with Trumps first term.
Clinton: 34.8%
Obama: 16.6%
W. Bush: 15.6%
Biden: 11.7%
H W Bush: 9.2%
Trump: 4%
Or how about jobs created?
Clinton: 20.9%
Biden: 12%
Obama: 8.6%
H W Bush: 2.5%%
W Bush: 1%
Trump: minus 2.7%
I have to laugh when I hear Trump’s cult members say how good the economy was during his first term.
Big buying opportunity on 7/31
Hey Trump, tariff this –
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/98213031_jpg_92%281%29a.jpg?itok=fMd_20XV
What sat ye, Schumer, Durbin, Schiff, Nadler, Raskin, Goldman, … ?
Like Tucker has reminded us, who thinks Biden’s DOJ goons would have sat on anything really damning about Trump in his relationship with Epstein?
They wouldn’t have. It’s called a Nothingburger for a reason.
It boggles the mind to think of all of the wealthy / influential people that could have the exact same cash of zero context photos released and then many, many more who really did the bad stuff.
And in other news:
The Israeli Ministry of Defense has officially suspended the supply of Chinese electric vehicles from BYD to IDF officers due to concerns over data collection via embedded communication systems and sensors. The ban came after numerous warnings from cybersecurity experts, who emphasized that Chinese vehicles could be used as tools for espionage.
So let’s hurry the hell up & get as many of these BYD CCP Trojan Horses that everyone seems to want driving around the USA sending our data to Xi.
Because one thing is for sure. The Orange Haired guy doesn’t know what the hell he’s doing by playing hardball with China.
He’s Lunatic Fringe & will soon make the global economy collapse onto itself, and when this happens, it won’t, they assure us, have a damn thing to do with the Fed’s policies, our massive debt load, or dysfunctional political system.
It will all the Orange Haired Guy’s fault, because that’s what Karen Bass says. She’s got the goods on him; he hates illegals who are more American than anyone born here in the US to legal native-born US parents and have more Constitutional rights than you and me per the liberal US DOJ Court System.
And don’t be surprised when they trot out 51 current & former intelligence officers to explain to you that the Orange Hair Guy’s trade policies are part of a Chinese collusion attempt to declare martial law and join forces with Xi as America’s last president.
Mish used to talk about an oversaturated market of nail salons, so the orange, purple and green hair clientele just naturally follows.
Methinks that mayhaps, perchance, poor Ben’s TDS II is not compatible with his horsey medicine.
Perhaps trump has done a little too much Ivermectin as well?
>
“What is ivermectin?
Ivermectin is an anti-parasite medication used to treat parasitic diseases, including parasitic worms, hookworm, whipworm, and external parasites. Ivermectin tablets (Stromectol) are FDA-approved to treat strongyloidiasis of the intestinal tract and onchocerciasis (river blindness). Ivermectin cream (Soolantra) is FDA-approved to treat rosacea, and ivermectin lotion (Sklice) is a treatment for head lice.
Ivermectin tablets have also been used off-label for scabies and other parasites.
Ivermectin works by paralyzing muscles in parasites, causing them to die. Ivermectin mechanism of action in parasites is by binding to glutamate-gated chloride channels (GluCl), causing paralysis. It does not affect mammals as it is unable to enter the mammal’s central nervous system, where the GluCl channels are located. Ivermectin tablets are also thought to help the human immune response to being able to overcome immature worms and kill them. It is thought that ivermectin tablets may suppress the ability of the parasite to secrete proteins that help it to evade the host’s natural immune defence mechanism.”
It works very well against all parasites including Left-wing mind parasites. You should try it.
Make sure you pay Mish his $0.05 for using his trademarked stupid term, Frosty.
That was a very weak attempt at poking fun at me.
Do better, Avery2, much better in fact.
You forgot to add that he is responsible for the fall of all civilization on Earth.
Very good point.
The US Treasury had a $27 billion budget surplus in June. This was a surprise, as economists had predicted a deficit. The surplus was driven in part by increased tariff revenue and decreased government spending.
C’mon, try to spin less government spending and increased tax revenue as inflationary. —- You know you want to, but the people just ain’t buying it.
Once again I will point out how great it is that these reveals happen on weekends. It can be difficult to find “news” after 5pm Friday, especially outside of campaign season! \s
Will it ever get ridiculous enough that the Senate will resume control of foreign trade? Even if enough followed the leader and rubber-stampped these actions at least there would be a veneer of legitimacy.
TACO announcement on July 30:
Trump abuses tariff.
Too cheap.
Nobody take it seriously.
Its like daily routine.
Trump is reordering world trade, and every country will be in the new order but the US. If the US is not trading with the world, then the world does not need to buy our debt. No Problem, the Fed will buy it with printed money accelerating the fiscal death spiral we are currently in as we are borrowing to pay interest on our debt now.
And yet, out in reality, Port of Los Angeles trade data show no significant slowdown in trade volumes. In fact overall trade is up in 25 vs 24.
Strange that it doesn’t follow the Tim Walz talking points we often see here.
LA port traffic drop when tariff front running ends
You have to give Trump credit. Through his schizophrenic TACO behavior he has trained market participants to ignore his economic policy madness.
No doubt the NASDAQ will be up 2-3% on Monday.
Look at 1929 and you’ll see a similar pattern. It’s a complete tulipmania fueled by TACO, despite the fact that TACO is only the tip of the iceberg. Colossal overvaluation from years and years of American protectionism already set this nation up for a colossal fall to earth when the free market prevails. People and hedges want to be the last one to make out, so they’ll keep buying until it suddenly snaps. Just like last time.
TACO (Tariffs As Competitive Offense)
AH! The old dual meaning, keeps everyone happy and guessing which one you mean.
I like it!
Someone else came up with it but I liked it and decided to use it too.
The other part from him is BURRITO (Brutal Unilateral Retaliation Repricing International Trade Orders)
Trump should put heavy tariffs on the illegal drugs smuggled in to the U.S.
He did!
I’m not sure that Trump understands that we get a fair amount of food from Mexico, half our fruit and 65% vegetables imported. Canada is no big loss, they can just keep selling out to Asia like the U.S. did anyway. Mexico, I hear they are buying Chinese cars now. Latin America is increasing trade with China. U.S. manufacturing moved a lot to Mexico, GE has 17 plants, GM has 4 complexes, Ford loves Mexico, Deere & Mercury Marine as well. This can’t be just a fentanyl thing, the drug is going to flow another way, it’s way to easy to smuggle in. For instance Temu ships in 1 million packages a day into the U.S., I heard that’s the new route. I studied cartel/narco, they don’t really try to hide as much as fly under the radar, I think many are untouchable because they know the right people, and that the U.S. is a narco country already and will remain so. Part of this is the need to export dollars, which helps keep dollar strong. Just my personal take, the lawyers, doctors, politicians, and businessmen are going to get their blow one way or another.
Canada does not have a big pipeline to its West Coast.
Canada Adds 70 Percent More Port Capacity to China to Escape Trump’s Tariffs
https://mishtalk.com/economics/canada-adds-70-percent-more-port-capacity-to-china-to-escape-trumps-tariffs/
They have recently put an LNG terminal in service in BC and China has contracted the next 20 years of LNG cargoes to be shipped there. It was long speculated that the gas would go to California. Trump fixed that!
In other petroleum news, Oil and Gas directed drilling rigs have fallen for ten weeks in a row. Now we have 46 fewer rigs drilling in the US than last year at this time.
Canada on the other hand has double digit weekly % increases in rigs drilling for natural gas and oil.
Canada is reviewing completing the oil pipeline that was mothballed because the people of Vancouver were worried about spills. Not any more! It is up for accelerated review and permitting.
A 70% increase in container receiving/shipping is being planned as China prepares to take up the slack in Canada’s production capacity.
Trump turns allies into enemies every day it seems.
<
The gas is not contracted to go only to China. It will go to multiple Asian countries such as Japan, South Korea, and India. California was never intended as a destination since California said it will go all renewables.
I guess that depends on what you mean by “big”.
The Trans Mountain pipeline (TMX) expansion has a nameplate capacity of approximately 890,000 barrels per day (Mb/d). This expansion, completed in May 2024, nearly tripled the pipeline’s capacity from its previous level of around 300 Mb/d. Trans Mountain is also exploring further expansion projects that could add between 200,000 and 300,000 barrels per day.
And Frosty is correct. LNG Canada just started shipping in the last few weeks. Initially, the facility will export LNG from two processing units (trains) with a total capacity of 14 million tonnes per annum.
Also, in the works:
🇨🇦 Canada’s pipeline landscape is heating up again with a couple of major developments on the horizon:
1. Aspen Point Program – Enbridge
– **Type**: Natural gas pipeline expansion
– **Location**: Northern British Columbia
– **Status**: Approved by the Canada Energy Regulator in December 2024
– **Construction Start**: Q2 2025
– **In-Service Target**: Late 2026
– **Capacity**: Adds up to **535 million cubic feet/day**
– **Details**:
– 18 km of new pipeline segments
– Electric-driven compressors and power lines
– Supports regional demand and potential LNG exports
🛢️ 2. Proposed Oil Pipeline to the West Coast
– **Type**: Crude oil pipeline (proposal stage)
– **Route**: From Alberta to northern British Columbia (likely Prince Rupert)
– **Capacity**: Up to **1 million barrels/day**
– **Status**: Not yet formally proposed, but **“highly likely
– **Purpose**:
– Expand export capacity beyond the US
– Support Canada’s push to become an energy superpower
– May be tied to a **C$16.5 billion carbon capture initiative** for Alberta
These projects reflect a renewed push for energy infrastructure, especially under Canada’s new fast-track legislation for “projects of national interest.”
NatGas is OK but exporting oil there will run into the Oil Tanker Moratorium Act. It might change by the time they are built but it is a big roadblock for now.
Yep. Several more LNG projects on the BC coast are moving along. Though it will take a few years to complete them.
The OTM Act is easily reversed by Canada’s government. The Conservatives promised to eliminate it if elected and the current govt will probably do the same as they promote the buildout of new pipelines.
The OTMA only impacted one proposed oil pipeline. And it was backed by indigenous groups in Canada.
One thing that Trump has achieved is to spur our trading partners (like Canada) to focus their future on trade with the rest of the world, and to reduce reliance on trade with the US.
Trump may eventually be successful in reducing our trade deficit. The rest of the world can benefit from trading tariff-free with each other as they reduce trade with the US.
It is expected to come online in 2035 if everything goes well which it probably won’t.
Yes. So many trade related topics recently mentioned here will take a decade (or more) to complete. The same goes for increasing US production of copper, aluminum, steel, electricity, cranes, ships, autos, iPhones, Barbies, shoes, and thousands of other things.
The question, as always, is how to incentivize an increase in US production of thousands of products we currently import.
Trump and his supporters here want tariffs on everything. Let’s produce everything in the US.
I am not a big supporter of blanket tariffs on everything; in particular on basic raw materials like steel, copper, aluminum, rare earths, oil, potash, lumber etc that are needed to produce thousands of finished items.
It would be better to eliminate all tariffs on all raw material imports to lower the costs of production for American businesses who produce finished goods.
Do we want our auto industry to be competitive? Then lower the cost of all their inputs by eliminating tariffs on everything they import.
Do we want to build a lot of new natural gas generation facilities in the US to generate more electricity cheapy and efficiently? Then eliminate tariffs on the raw materials they must import.
Do we want to improve our electrical grid? Then don’t put tariffs on the copper, steel and aluminum we need to import to improve our grid.
Implementing tariffs on all these inputs to boost their domestic production a decade from now only hampers the thousands of US businesses that produce finished goods.
We had such a good thing going with countries like Canada. We imported their raw materials and sold them finished goods. Now we are putting tariffs on all their raw materials which will make our finished goods too expensive for them to keep buying. And we are pushing them to increase trade with the rest of the world. Lose-lose.
The idea behind trade is win-win. And we are moving in the opposite direction.
Without raw materials you have no finished products so excessive dependence on other counties for them leads you disaster sooner or later. All this is because the national security risk had become just too important to ignore anymore.
Yes. Which is why you establish good relations with your closest trading partners in order to guarantee supply.
But if you are truly concerned about supply in the long term you can buy excess supply and build up strategic reserves of the raw material (such as the SPR) while incentivizing the expansion of domestic production of that material over the next decade or two. Assuming we can produce enough of that material to meet our needs.
Of course, there are some raw materials we simply don’t have in any meaningful amount, like potash, bauxite, and heavy oil in the US.
If there is just one country that we need to have good trade relations with it is Canada. They can provide us with almost all the raw materials we need. Mexico is a close second.
A strong North American trade alliance is in our national best interest, from both a security and competitive point of view.
You make a good argument for a strong NA trade alliance. Nice post.
I’ll agree with you that Trump is going overboard with CA, but I also agree they should be doing more to stop the flow of fentanyl into the US. Like the UK, SK, JP, AU, CA is an important trading partner, and Trump needs to pull back on them for sure.
I would have split the world into four groups:
China
MX
CA + EU
Everyone else.
I would have started out with a 15% tariff for China & MX and then bumped monthly 2%. The rest of the world would start at 10% with 1% bumps, and I wouldn’t have let the tariffs on CA & EU climb as high as some of the other countries with very substantial tariffs on US exports.
And to reiterate, all of the carrots like tax incentives etc that you’ve mentioned previously should be deployed to bring investment to the US.
But MX is a very different animal IMHO. They are an enormously corrupt country who’s ties to the CCP via fentanyl are only growing. So MX was already drifting closer into the China’s orbit. Out of all the countries Trump has started a trade way with, I think MX will be the hardest to bring them back into a strong trade alliance. And I say that in large part of what’s going on internally here in the US. With all of this division, it makes it easier for MX to cut ties which isn’t going happen anyway. In addition, it’s absolutely not in our interest to let MX continue to take advantage of the US in terms of illegal immigration & drugs. It’s just not and represents the largest threat the US faces at the present time, IMHO. Internal forces tearing us apart are much greater than China, Russia or Iran at the present time.
If the goal is to isolate China or be less dependent on China Trump’s actions are counterproductive.
USMCA was a great deal for the US, especially with Canada. The way to make it better is shut down Mexico’s passthrough from China.
The EU needed some improvements. But hardly the disaster Trump thinks.
It is idiotic to believe sneakers, underwear, etc. need to be made in the US. To attempt that will make the US the high-cost producer of everything.
Counterproductive – HOW?
BONUS – What’s the better approach?
I have read you state that the US needs to produce more strategic goods. We both agree on that.
Apparently, you must think that sneakers & underwear are strategic. I don’t, and I never said anything remotely close to them are.
I have ONLY stated strategic goods, which I suggest include:
ANYTHING REM related
Pharmaceuticals
Electronics
SSBs
Power grid equipment from large to small
ANYTHING nuclear power related
There’s more, of course. Note solar panels & wind power modules are not on the list. Both of these are bridge electricity producers.
The future is nuclear with SMRs leading the way to fusion which both supporting a future hydrogen-based economy many decades from now. The simple reason hydrogen wins eventually is because everyone has water at their house. You don’t need 800 volts to split water. Advances in electrolysis or new methods for splitting water are happening all the time. Hydrogen is the most abundant element, and more efficient fuel cell designs will continue to arrive.
We’re 30 years behind the curve on nuclear and Trump needs to usher in a moonshot. SMRs can’t come online fast enough, and their initial high cost MUST be driven down. The imperative to achieve this goal has nearly zero comparison outside of defense related technology gains.
Fentanyl is just a very lame excuse.
First, less than 1% of US fentanyl imports come from Canada.
Second, why are we relying on Canada to protect OUR border. That’s OUR job. If something is crossing our border illegally, its up to us to stop it. Are we so inept, that we need someone else to protect our border? How embarrassing is that?
Canada has indeed stepped up border security to try to appease Trump. I suspect that a bonus for Canada is that they will catch more guns and drugs that are attempting to cross from the US to Canada.
“First, less than 1% of US fentanyl imports come from Canada.”
Source pls.
Actually, less than 0.1%.
https://www.canada.ca/en/privy-council/services/canada-fentanyl-czar/key-data.html
And as I keep repeating. It isn’t Canada’s job to protect our border. It’s our job.
Honestly, I am surprised it’s that little. And, I’ve never said it’s their job to alone to “protect” the border.
But there are 2 sides to the border, and if a lot of illegals were illegally crossing into CA from US, then I’d imagine Carney would have a lot to say to Trump about it.
Again, we can both agree that Trump needs to back off CA some, and your post above about a strong NA trading alliance rings very true.
As I said, Canada has beefed up their border security over the last decade; primarily to stop the illegal drugs and guns (or people) that were entering Canada from the US. I have never heard Canada complaining to the US that they need the US to better protect Canada’s border. They just went ahead and did it themselves. Imagine that. How grown up of them not to blame others.
They were so successful in stopping illegal drug imports, that organized crime had to start up illegal labs in Canada to maintain their supply of drugs. So their drug problem didn’t disappear by stopping illegal imports. It just shifted where the drugs were being produced.
Which is what will happen in the US if Trump ever managed to prevent drugs from coming in. Organized crime in the US will simply set up labs and make it themselves.
Blaming others for our problems is childish. Even worse is expecting others to solve our problems. They’re our problems. We shouldn’t blame others for them or expect others to fix them for us.
I look at my life the same way. I don’t blame anyone for my personal situation and I sure as hell don’t expect others to improve my life for me. That’s up to me.
When did America become a nation of lazy ass crybabies? It’s f*cking embarrassing.
– Now we are putting tariffs on all their raw materials which will make our finished goods too expensive for them to keep buying.
> Seems to me that everyone needs to take a hit here, to entirely redo the way our economies work with others. To make it more fair/even if you will, then profits must be more equalized too. Perhaps a pay adjustment here or there, or use more non-tied in and more competitive Suppliers. Put out Bids for Everything that you can, and go for the mid or slightly less, to get your cost lower, but for the same cost or close to it, with new people you don’t know, and want and don’t expect the business, ETC…
– And we are pushing them to increase trade with the rest of the world.
> Not at all, but they are choosing Not to have fair trade, so they are looking to do so with others. They will make a very big mistake in doing so, and find out that fair trade with the U.S. is much better than any alternative for them.
These letters are an intellectual embarrassment. External deficits are, by definition, the difference between a country’s savings and investments. The US is running an overall trade deficit because it has more investments than available savings. Foreign savers, including EU savers, are willing to invest their savings in the US to allow the US to have higher investments. But then the letters say foreigners need to stop financing US investments. The letters are on a level of economic illiteracy that leaves you stunned.
Trump himself does not give a shit. For him it is not about the economy, but about wielding power.
The economic illiteracy are from his supporters.
He also has this fantasy that he has been trying to sell to MAGA, that we can completely eliminate the federal income tax and replace it with tariff revenue. Like in 1900, before we even had paved roads.
Not to mention that tariffs are a highly regressive tax.
The letter to Mexico sounds like it was written by a drunk (who also can’t spell).
Have you read the letter? Which parts sound like it was written by a drunk and where are the spelling errors?
And they all act like TDS II is a real thing just because Mish made it up.
50% import tariffs on Brazil to protect Bolsonaro.
Revoking O’Donnels citizenship
30% import tariffs on Canada, EU and Mexico
More to come in order to keep people distracted form the Epstein fiasco.
I don’t altogether “get” the fiasco, from what I gather the guy was simply a very rich sex fiend, and men kill themselves a lot in America, the average for the world is about 2X male to female, but here in the states it is more like 4X male to female.
Do you think Trump will be desperate enough to torpedo the economy through tariffs held to completion to make thr Epstein story go away?
Starting to sound like it
TACO can’t go one day without stirring the pot on this contentious and divisive topic. While Reagan was known as a uniter, TACO works 24/7 to be a divider.
I was there and Reagan was NOT a Uniter
I’m tired of these baby tariffs. I want HUGE Tariffs, C’mon TACO 500% or Nothing.
Will the S & P 500 drop to 666 again?
no