Trump Got What He Wanted in Texas Senate Primary, But So Did Democrats

Trump is gloating now over Ken Paxton. But he’s gloating over a loss.

Either Trump or the Democrats are wrong, and it’s not the Democrats.

The Gift of Overreach

Michael Sellers explains Paxton Win in Texas Gives Dems the Gift of Trumpian Overreach; Can They Take Advantage of It?

There are moments in politics when a party’s internal logic begins to collide with electoral reality. Texas may now be one of those moments — and if that’s true, then the Dems just got a much needed boose from Trumpian overreach.

Donald Trump got what he wanted. John Cornyn, a four-term Republican senator, longtime institutional player, former GOP whip, and generally reliable conservative vote, has been pushed aside in favor of Ken Paxton, the scandal-scarred Texas attorney general whose greatest political asset is not broad statewide appeal but total identification with the Trump wing of the Republican Party. He’s as MAGA as MAGA gets.

Paxton’s victory may prove to be a major MAGA win in the short term and a major MAGA problem in the long term.

The seat Cornyn held was supposed to be safe. It was safe enough that Senate Republicans could reasonably expect to spend their money elsewhere. Now, because Trump insisted on enforcing loyalty even against a dependable Republican incumbent, Texas has become much more expensive, much more volatile, and potentially far more consequential.

The Dem Candidate is a Strong One

James Talarico is not the kind of Democrat Republicans would most like to run against. He is young, articulate, fluent in the language of faith and public service, and capable of presenting himself as a mainstream Texas alternative rather than a nationalized caricature of the Democratic Party. He may not yet be a household name nationally, but that may be part of the opportunity. He has room to introduce himself to Texas voters on his own terms.

Against Cornyn, that would have been difficult. Cornyn was a conventional conservative incumbent with deep roots, long experience, and broad familiarity across the state. He may not have inspired much passion, but he did not need to. His political strength was not charisma. It was durability.

Paxton is different. He is flamboyant, outspoken, and brings years of legal, ethical, and political baggage into a statewide race. He was impeached by the Republican-controlled Texas House, acquitted by the Texas Senate, previously faced securities-fraud charges that were eventually dismissed, and remains a polarizing figure even within the Republican Party. He is not merely a conservative nominee. He is a Trump-era test case: a candidate whose liabilities are treated by the base almost as proof of authenticity.

That may work in a Republican primary. It is much less clear that it works in a statewide general election.

The Risk of MAGAfication

Trump’s politics of retribution have been brutally effective inside the Republican Party.

He can punish dissent. He can elevate loyalists. He can turn a primary into a referendum on submission and fealty. Republican politicians understand this, which is why so many of them behave less like independent officeholders than like nervous courtiers waiting to see where the king points.

But a Senate race is not a closed Republican primary, nor is it race in a gerrmandered house district. It is statewide. It includes the full range of segments — suburban voters, independents, ticket-splitters, exhausted conservatives, and people who may not love Democrats but also do not want every institution in American life turned into another Trump loyalty test.

That was one of the lessons of 2022. Trump-backed candidates won primaries and then turned winnable races into losses or near-misses. Herschel Walker in Georgia. Blake Masters in Arizona. Adam Laxalt in Nevada. The pattern was not identical in every state, but the larger problem was clear: Trump would push for “hard MAGA” candidates; get them nominated; but general-election voters did not share the MAGA fervor.

The question now is whether Paxton becomes another example of that pattern — or whether Texas remains Republican enough to absorb even a deeply flawed nominee.

Texas Does Not Have to Flip to Matter

If Texas becomes genuinely competitive, Republicans have a problem even if Paxton ultimately wins. Money spent defending a seat that should have been safe is money not spent elsewhere. Time spent managing Paxton’s liabilities is time not spent prosecuting the case against Democratic incumbents. National Republican strategists do not want to be forced to pour resources into Texas when there are competitive races in states like Maine, Ohio, Iowa, North Carolina, Alaska, and Georgia.

But it’s clear now, that’s exactly what they will have to do. It’s game on in Texas and national MAGA attention and national MAGA resources will have to be directed there in ways that were not likely before this happened.

He may have gotten the nominee he wanted. But he may also have transformed Texas from a Republican asset into a Republican burden.

Trump Picked a Fight With His Own Senate

There is also an internal Republican cost that should not be overlooked.

Cornyn was not a Never Trumper. He was not Liz Cheney. He was not a Republican dissident whose political identity was built around opposing Trump. He opposed Trump’s second impeachment and was, by most measures, a dependable Republican senator.

His offense was more subtle: he was not sufficiently early, sufficiently enthusiastic, or sufficiently submissive.

That is a dangerous message to send to sitting Republican senators whose votes Trump still needs.

Cornyn was well liked in the Senate. He had institutional knowledge. He understood procedure. He had served in leadership. He knew how to count votes, negotiate deals, hold Republicans together, and move legislation through a chamber where personal relationships still matter.

Replacing that kind of figure with Paxton may satisfy Trump’s appetite for vengeance. It does not necessarily help Trump govern.

A president can intimidate his party, but intimidation has costs. Senators may obey in public while resenting in private. They may fear Trump’s base, but they also understand when one of their own has been sacrificed for reasons that have less to do with conservative principle than personal loyalty.

That resentment may not be visible immediately. It may not produce open rebellion. But in a closely divided Senate, where every vote matters and every procedural decision can become a fight, it is not nothing.

Trump won the primary battle. He may have made the governing war harder.

In Texas, Trump may have crossed a line that matters. He took a safe Republican incumbent and helped replace him with a volatile MAGA loyalist. He gave Democrats a stronger contrast. He complicated the Republican Senate map. He strained relations with Senate Republicans. And he may have made control of the Senate more attainable for Democrats than it looked before.

That is not a Democratic victory. But it is Trumpian overreach with consequences.

And in a Senate map where every seat matters, that may be enough to make Texas one of the most important races in the country.

Deleted Ad

Somehow I think that will resurface in November, by the Democrats.

The Correct Response

“If Ken Paxton is worried about freaks, he should stop giving Epstein-style sweetheart deals to pedophiles. This is the guy who just released Adam Hoffman from jail, an admitted child rapist, after one of Ken Paxton’s wealthy lawyer friends got involved in the case.”

Trump and Democrats Get Paxton in Texas, the Senate Nominee They All Wanted

The Wall Street Journal reports Trump and Democrats Get Paxton in Texas, the Senate Nominee They All Wanted

Ken Paxton’s trouncing of incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in the Republican runoff represents Trump’s latest triumph in maintaining his grip on his MAGA base after he similarly ousted rivals in Indiana, Louisiana and Kentucky. But to the delight of Democrats, the president’s decision to make an 11th-hour endorsement of Paxton could put the Senate seat in play for James Talarico after decades of Democratic futility in the Lone Star State.

In his endorsement, Trump called Paxton a “true MAGA Warrior” and called Cornyn a “good man” but said he was “not supportive of me when times were tough.” He also said Cornyn was “very late in backing” his 2024 presidential bid.

What Trump Lost in Texas

WSJ author Kimberley Strassel explains What Trump Lost in Texas

What Trump won: Honestly, nothing. Paxton’s a showman, and did a bang-up job of smearing Cornyn as a “RINO.” But it’s a bogus line. Cornyn has one of the more conservative voting records in the Senate, and has been a solid backer of Trump policies. Should Paxton win in November, he’ll make no material difference to the success or failure of the Trump agenda. What ideas he brings (let’s sue more corporations!) won’t fly with most of his GOP colleagues, so he’ll also make little intellectual difference. He won’t match Cornyn when it comes to fundraising; the Texas senator has drummed up more than $400 million over his career for colleagues. Texas also gains nothing. Far from it. Paxton would arrive as a freshman, with far less clout on or off committees to snag priorities for his state than has the five-term and much admired Cornyn.

Red to Blue?: Paxton has an ethical baggage train so long you’d need two locomotives to pull it downhill. That baggage includes a 2023 impeachment (by a GOP-led Texas House) on bribery and corruption charges, a pretrial agreement over securities fraud charges, and his recent and ugly divorce—in which his wife alleges adultery). Democratic nominee James Talarico (a seminarian) will be working with pure gold, while the Democratic Party will plow monumental resources into the race. Paxton also went full-nuke against Cornyn, leaving a bitter taste in the mouths of the many Texas Republicans who stuck with the incumbent. The new GOP nominee will not easily heal that rift. And that’s in a year where the GOP’s best hope of blunting Democratic momentum is enthusiasm and turnout.

Dollars: Trump and GOP colleagues have amassed a nearly $1 billion midterm war chest, and good thing, too, as Paxton is going to cost them a small fortune. The GOP has outraised its opponents so far, but with enthusiasm on the left hitting new highs, Democratic donors will pour on the cash when crunch time hits. It wouldn’t have taken much to make Cornyn, the incumbent, bulletproof. The Paxton Prop-Up Fund will, by contrast, need to be huge, and will come at the expense of Republicans who could use the money far more and stretch it further. Texas is an expensive campaign state. The GOP Senate primary alone cost an astonishing $130 million.

From now until November: Those are the unknowns. What is known is that Trump’s decision to throw over the well-liked Cornyn (whom nearly every Senate Republican endorsed) infuriated GOP members at a new level. Especially as it comes on top of Trump’s unappreciated endorsement of Julia Letlow, who beat Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy in a recent primary. The list of senators who have a grudge against Trump—and who no longer have any reason to care what he thinks—is growing: North Carolina’s Thom Tillis, Kentucky’s Mitch McConnell, Iowa’s Joni Ernst and both Cassidy and Cornyn. That’s already enough to block any GOP legislation. Meanwhile, Utah Sen. John Curtis is also reported to be investigating the possibility of a gubernatorial run, and could also retire. Add in moderates like Alaska’s Lisa Murkowski or Maine’s Susan Collins, and iconoclasts like Kentucky’s Rand Paul. The Senate last week put aside its attempt to pass final funding for immigration enforcement because Majority Leader John Thune had no hope of getting a majority of Senate Republicans to support the president’s “anti-weaponization” slush fund amid a coming Democratic onslaught. The president’s ballroom funding is probably also toast. Is Trump likely to get through any new nominee for the open position of attorney general or director of national intelligence? Don’t bank on it. Republicans and the White House had hoped for a third reconciliation bill to push through some final Trump priorities, but don’t bank on that either.

Trump got a new guy in Texas. In trade, he might have lost effective control of the Senate for the rest of this year. Or, if it’s a bad enough GOP Election Day, for the rest of his term. Yeehaw.

Governing the War

Trump did make governing the war harder. And if my Senate projection is correct, make that impossible.

My base case is Democrats win the Senate. They don’t even need Texas to do so.

Kalshi 2026 Senate Prediction Market Prices

Four Things

1. The betting markets
2. Consumer sentiment
3. Inflation
4. Polls

The Kalshi Senate odds keep wavering between 50 and 51 seats to Republicans.

But I was at 51 when Kalshi was at 49. Since then, the betting markets have come around to my view. That view is Republicans lose Maine, North Carolina, Alaska, and Ohio.

I was at Alaska and Ohio before Kalshi.

Q: Why?
A: I expect Republicans will lose every race considered a tossup.

To me, Maine and North Carolina were always given Republican losses.

The consensus view, still, is Maine and North Carolina are tossups. The Kalshi view is 65 percent and 85 percent respectively.

Please be serious is my take on the consensus view, especially North Carolina.

It’s not a given that Democrats win the Senate. That’s my base case, but with only a 52-60 percent probability, for now.

However, even a loss of two seats, and that is the bare minimum I would expect, would make governing difficult, a loss of three, very difficult. Trump could not afford a single Republican dissent if Republicans lose three seats.

At four, my base case (but without strong conviction), Republican governing is impossible.

Congratulations to Trump

Meanwhile, congratulations to Trump.

He can gloat now. But let’s see who is gloating in November.

Oh wait. In November, Trump will be able to gloat about getting rid of Thom Tillis in North Carolina, and Sue Collins in Maine.

The cost will be at least two Senate seats making governing somewhere between difficult and impossible.