Trump finally followed through with his threats against Russia in a major way, or did he?
“Fake News” Trump Allows Ukraine to Use Long-Range Missiles
The Wall Street Journal reports U.S. Lifts Key Restriction on Ukraine’s Use of European Long-Range Missiles
The Trump administration has lifted a key restriction on Ukraine’s use of some long-range missiles provided by Western allies, enabling Kyiv to step up attacks on targets inside Russia and increase pressure on the Kremlin, U.S. officials said Wednesday.
Ukraine used a British-supplied Storm Shadow cruise missile on Tuesday to strike a Russian plant in Bryansk that produced explosives and rocket fuel, the General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces announced on social media. It called the strike a “successful hit” that penetrated Russian air defenses.
The unannounced U.S. move to enable Kyiv to use the missile in Russia comes after authority for supporting such attacks was recently transferred from Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth at the Pentagon to the top U.S. general in Europe, Gen. Alexus Grynkewich, who also serves as NATO commander.
The shift coincided with a push in early October by President Trump to pressure the Kremlin into talks on ending the war, including the possibility that he would approve sending Kyiv U.S.-made Tomahawk missiles, which have a range of more than 1,000 miles. Trump has since backed off that proposal.
However U.S. officials said they expect Ukraine to conduct more cross-border attacks using the Storm Shadow, which is launched from Ukrainian aircraft and can travel more than 180 miles. The U.S. can restrict Ukraine’s use of Storm Shadow because the missiles use American targeting data.
The Pentagon didn’t respond to requests for comment. Ukraine’s General Staff didn’t immediately reply to a request for comment.
After this article was published, Trump posted on social media that “the U.S.A.’s approval of Ukraine being allowed to use long range missiles deep into Russia is FAKE NEWS! The U.S. has nothing to do with those missiles, wherever they may come from, or what Ukraine does with them!”
Ukraine’s renewed use of Storm Shadows isn’t a game changer on the battlefield. They have a far shorter range than U.S. Tomahawks, and have been used to strike targets in Russia before. But the missiles do enable Kyiv to expand its attacks inside Russia.
Ukraine is also carrying out attacks well inside Russia with domestically-produced drones and a small number of homegrown missiles. Many of the strikes have been directed against Russian oil refineries and energy infrastructure. The Wall Street Journal reported in September that Trump has approved sharing that targeting data, which notably includes oil refineries.
“As it has shown, Ukraine is incredibly capable itself of striking deep inside Russia at legitimate military targets that enable the Kremlin’s senseless war, which is straining its economy and has killed or injured more than a million Russians,” said Col. Martin O’Donnell, a NATO spokesman. “It does not need our permission.”
Trump last week expressed interest in holding a second summit with Putin in Budapest, Hungary, to discuss ending the war, but talks between the two governments quickly broke down. Trump on Tuesday said such a meeting would be a “waste of time.” NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte met with Trump at the White House on Wednesday.
U.S. Imposes Substantial New Sanctions on Russian Oil Giants
Also note U.S. Imposes Substantial New Sanctions on Russian Oil Giants
President Trump has announced substantial new sanctions on Russia’s two biggest oil companies as frustration in Washington grows over the war in Ukraine.
The new sanctions, which would be the first direct U.S. measures on Russia during the second Trump administration, target Lukoil and Rosneft as well as nearly three dozen of their subsidiaries. Oil is one of Russia’s largest sources of revenue.
The U.S. sanctions could bar foreign countries or companies from conducting business with the oil companies and cut them off from much of the international financial system.
Asked at the White House why the administration had decided to act against the companies at this stage, Trump said, “I just felt it was time. We waited a long time.” He posted the sanctions list on social media, calling on Moscow to agree to an “immediate cease-fire.”
The Treasury Department, in its sanctions notice released on Wednesday, also warned that “foreign financial institutions that conduct or facilitate significant transactions or provide any service involving Russia’s military-industrial base” also “run the risk of being sanctioned.”
Treasury added that transactions with the newly designated entities “may risk the imposition of secondary sanctions on participating foreign financial institutions.”
“A Chinese bank, a U.A.E. oil trader, an Indian refinery—if any of them transact with those Russian companies, they could be hit with U.S. sanctions,” said Fishman.
Penalties on Russia’s ability to sell oil and energy resources are expected to significantly hit the country’s economy. “Russia’s war machine is going to take a severe hit,” said Kim Donavan, a former White House and Treasury official now with the Atlantic Council think tank. “They’re already having a hard time funding the government and military, so this will affect their ability to continue the war and could be a driving factor to pressure Putin to come to the negotiating table.”
Trump’s own sanctions strategy against Russia has run hot and cold. He has increased tariffs on countries that purchase Russian energy, like India, to squeeze Moscow’s war coffers and slapped sanctions on Serbia’s main oil supplier, which is majority owned by a Russian state energy company. But he had previously expressed doubts that increasing sanctions on Moscow, which is already under severe pressure from the U.S. and Western allies, would convince Putin to change course during months of prolonged negotiations.
“I don’t know if it’s going to affect Russia, because he wants to obviously probably keep the war going,” Trump said in July. “It may or may not affect them, but it could.”
As long as China and India keep buying Russian oil, the sanctions are useless.
When the first headline on missiles hit, I thought Trump was taking serious actions.
Instead, the Journal noted Trump called it all “fake news”.
Musical Tribute
Trump’s Wishy-Washy Threats
On October 21 I commented Trump’s Wishy-Washy Idle Threats Will Prolong the War in Ukraine
Enough already. Do something, or nothing. Just stop the bluffs.
When both sides understand you are a big transparent bluffer, what incentive is there for either side to make a change?
My Stance
My stance is the US created this mess by meddling. I do not like US actions that led to this mess, or the messes in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, or Vietnam.
But if you are not willing to send Tomahawks to Ukraine, there is no point in pretending that you are.
Russia just needs to be beat. In a way, it already has been, the demographics and brain drain will be unrecoverable, even if it suddenly decides not to be a mafiaocracy.
Trade talks with Canada ended now as well. Trump simply can’t get things done.
Canada, formerly our stalwart ally, is now drilling like crazy and finding lots of oil % gas to export to the Chinese. Expediting pipeline infrastructure to the coasts and permitting of shipping facilities.
They already have built pipelines from the Alberta O&G patch to the Kitimat River in BC, planned long before Trump came along.
“You can’t manage what you can’t measure.”
I’d like to know how the neo-cons think they can even know how much oil India and Chinese companies are buying from Russia, when they purchase it in Rupees, Yuan, and BTC.
Unless they’re going to infiltrate every pop-up shell company in China with spies, it’s impossible.
De-dollarization is a real problem for these neanderthals like Lindsey Graham. As is a huge land border. Modi skipped out on the ASEAN summit to avoid Taco … gee, I wonder why?
Has anyone studied the military and geopolitical issues more intelligently than: Prof. Mearsheimer, Col Davis and Col Macgregor?
They unanimously conclude all the king’s Tomahawks and all the king’s sanctions won’t amount to a hill of dung. The conflict ends with a Russian victory on the battlefield but with many of Moscow’s global security goals unfulfilled (and hopefully Zelensky’s head on a pike for exterminating 1 million + young Ukrainian men for nothing).
No presidents were ever as popular as Dumbya after 9-11 and the Iraq War II. Go figure.
Mish is as clueless as always about the NATO – Russia war in Ukraine.
I wonder how he feels nowadays about his long repeated prediction that this war will end with peace talks and a compromise that will leave “both parties” (which he of course misidentifies as Ukraine and Russia) unhappy…
And anyone else here does? It’s very clear nobody here has ever served with the military, nor do they understand the concepts at play strategically.
Some does, some doesn’t, and having served with the military does not seem to be a factor at all since you find plenty of those people (and I am one BTW) in BOTH camps.
Some of the most asinine and detached from reality commentary and opinions on this war come from Western top military people who on paper have lots of past and present military experience and knowledge…
Why was the U.S. in WWI?
Full disclosure: no, I wasn’t in it.
I can imagine if the war was ended, as Trump wishes and all of us here also wish, then things would quickly go back to some normalcy. If there is no active conflict then there is nothing for certain factions to feed on, aside from starting a new war.
Mish I wonder if you are following what’s happening in Budapest with the massive, massive anti-Russia demonstrations? Looks a lot like Ukraine in 2014… I wonder if you watch it unfold now in real time, will you be less likely to blame it on some kind of weird conspiracy theory like you do with the democratic movement in Ukraine?
The populations of former Soviet satellites want away from Russia. There’s no need to gin up conspiracy theories as to why.
This is weird two YouTubes
1: Tens of Thousands March for Orban in Budapest | We Don’t Want to Die for Ukraine | 8 hours ago
2: Tens of Thousands Rally in Budapest Against Orban’s Government | 1 hour ago
Not weird – it was just two opposing political rallies in the lead up to elections next year. Interestingly the TISZA (opposition movement) is running on anti-corruption but not really anti-Russia.
To me that seems strange given Hungary’s history. However the leader of TISZA (who used to be in Orban’s govt) seems to be playing a line of not trying to provoke things in that area. Becoming explicitly anti-Putin is a difficult game to play in that part of Europe.
BTW – I highly recommend the Museum of Horrors in Budapest for anybody who wants to understand how the country has been manipulated over the last 100 years. Visting there – it seems bizarre that the population allowed Orban to become so dominant.
Any oil/gas/fertilizer/fuel that Russia does not sell raises the prices of energy, raising profit on the amounts they do sell.Since supply of fossil fuels is constrained in any meaningful time frame, any policy success will also mean prices rise globally, hitting the global and American economy, not just Russia.
Permission has nothing to do with it.
Any UA action is predicated on American ISR assets, and thus requires hands-on American agency. Or do you think NATO/UA can commandeer American ISR assets?
The technical mechanics, for those who inquire into the details, mean there is no such thing as Israeli or Ukrainian action without American hands-on agency.
All the rest is a cloud of spin, kabuki, and misinformation intended to create plausible deniability in the public mind.
I think we can conclude from the last days that Trump has limited powers at diplomacy, and that the underlying agenda is being laid bare. Despite Trump’s best intentions which all hoped would bring settlements; Orban has been left on uneven keel and Putin has a brand new understanding of an undermined statesman. Not good situation.
» Yes, but why does the US meddle?
» Why withdraw from weapons treaties?
» Why station missile launching sites on Russia’s borders?
Because official US doctrine (the Wolfowitz doctrine is the latest/current reiteration of this principle) states that the principle goal of US foreign policy is to prevent the rise of any country that could serve as a constraint on American unilateralism. This means Russia, China, Iran, Korea, and indeed any power that does not bend the knee, is an enemy to US sovereignty, or hegemony as thus conceived.
Until the US renounces this policy and its official aims to defeat and balkanize Russia, there really is very little to negotiate about except an effort to prevent nuclear apocalypse.
As it has shown, Ukraine is incredibly capable itself of striking deep inside Russia at legitimate military targets that enable the Kremlin’s senseless war, which is straining its economy and has killed or injured more than a million Russians,” said Col. Martin O’Donnell, a NATO spokesman.
It was senseless to provoke the war, which has caused a lot of death and destruction. It was senseless for Boris Johnson to put the kibosh on an early end to the war in 2022. Most of the death and destruction occurred after Johnson intervened to extend the war.
has killed or injured more than a million Russians,” said Col. Martin O’Donnell, a NATO spokesman.
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you got to be totally brain dead TO BELIEVE ANYTHING FROM nato/ukraine404/etc
(not you, but generic you)
during COVID 2 or 3 people died in my flat housing . 20 flats overall!
old folks. i knew personally.
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i yet to see-know anybody who died in Ukraine war for last 4 years in russia.
anybody relative, or just simple neighbour.
alx
I assume official numbers are propaganda, but there has been a lot of senseless death and destruction over the last nearly 4 years. It is also propaganda, that O’Donnell is playing innocent, when the war was provoked.
FROM ZH
Trump Hopes For ‘Deal On Everything’ In China Talks
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JESUS !!!! did you not put new 100pct tariffs on china just 2 days ago??
i rally think he has dementia !!!!!!! honestly !
Oil up hyuuuge today. Good thing it won’t be counted in tomorrow’s CPI release.
I’m half expecting them to report a CPI index lower than last month so as to minimize the SS COLA. A lower CPI would also bolster the case for more rate cuts. Can the BLS make it happen?
The CPI index has gone down 5 times in the last 24 months, but how many are aware of that fact? Not many, because the press never reports the actual index readings, only the so-called “seasonally adjusted” doctored figures.
Trump says social security, medicare and medicaid will be gone….oops he said the quiet part out loud.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/social-security-medicare-are-going-to-be-gone-donald-trump-warns/ar-AA1OUOI0
“There’s nothing about death,” Trump said. “Theirs is death because they’re going to lose Medicaid, they’re going to lose Social Security, they’re going to lose Medicare, all of those things are going to be gone because the whole country would be bankrupt, and you’re not going to have any kind of medical insurance.”
The Roman Empire collapsed. All empires do. The UN is working on it’s own global power grab, as well as the WHO, with their One Health agenda.
More BS from 2 TACO Trump. Just to please EU and the NAZI friends.
How are Trump’s Russian Sanctions, especially on oil, working out for the Brit’s maritime and insurance related crown jewel businesses?
What these news headlines do is boost volatility in the Russian stock market. 5% up or down days are becoming the norm. A wild ride like the Dow in the 1970s.
Short of sinking oil tankers and creating a major oil slick, it really is a farce. Russia-Ukraine has become tit-for-tat, with Zelenskyy struggling to up the ante (because he really is delusional), Putin being fully aware that WW3 will not have winners, and the EU really are headless chickens.
Which leaves the world in dire need of a true statesman. So far, MIsh’s draw the line NOW is the only workable solution.
Meanwhile, the US should declare itself a neutral state and sell armaments to both sides to start paying down the $38Trillion national debt.
=europe after 19th round of sanctions STARTED PREPARING 20TH
YOU KNOW WHAT dog does laying on sofa,,, licking b…alls
so as eu /usa politicians..
Simplicius expounds on this. https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/eu-declares-war-on-its-own-members It’s not just Trump attempting to sanction Russian oil. It’s him doing so at the request of Rutte and almost simultaneously with two successful attacks on refineries within Romania and Hungary and one attempted attack on a refinery in Slovakia. Couple this with enunciated justifications of these attacks within NATO countries by Rutte and Sikorski. The Europeons are physically attacking their own non-compliant members. They are hellbent on preserving western hegemony even though they themselves are vassals of the U.S. As usual, Trump blows hot and cold, never admitting that the American not-so-deep state has ginning up this war for decades and plans to continue it after he’s gone.
The real war, and the only one that matters, has already happened and the west has lost. It’s called the demographic death spiral war. The EU, Russia and the US blowing themselves up will only make the end come much faster.
There is no way to fix this and the hegemony as it exists is destined to fail, only a matter of time, most predict 2030 to 2040.
But don’t fret, just as the Roman empire collapse, there are still “Romans” living in the area called Italy, They are known for pizzas and pasta. I assume America will be known for burgers and beer and the stadiums will become the new decaying coliseums.
The demographic cliff is bigger and steeper in east Asia. It matters what constraints one’s competitors or fellows are under, relatively. If there is less of all humans, what’s the problem? It is like a surfing contest with lousy waves: everybody has to compete in the same waves. I think fewer humans overall is the best possible thing that could happen. Ever heard of the Prisoners’ Dilemma? Or the Tragedy of the Commons? People like Trump’s absolutely haven’t. Those are the looming threats.
“what’s the problem?”
Extinction.
“The demographic cliff is bigger and steeper in east Asia.”
The demographic winter covers ALL of the feminist (and feminized) societies of today’s world.
As long as the root causes of it are not recognized and DRASTICALLY addressed, the problem will not be solved (and it is in fact NOT being solved even by those countries which are genuinely trying to do so, i.e. Russia, Hungary etc) and as things stand today no country is even remotely close to even remotely hint at what the root causes may be…
The problem will eventually “self correct” anyway, it’s called natural selection.
Oh! That makes sense. Trump doesn’t want to sell Ukraine Tomahawk cruise missiles because this isn’t our war to fight and doing so would deplete our stockpile of these missiles. And the UK, France & Germany who have more skin in the game all have comparable missiles. And Ukraine just used one supplied by the UK to offensively strike deep into Russia. Gee, that makes a lot of sense.
But I thought Trump & all of his yes-man minions are idiots? So had Biden taken the same approach, we would be spending tens of billions of dollars to replenish our munitions.
“My stance is the US created this mess by meddling.”
Remind us, what meddling did the US do to create this? That might be a correct statement to make, but I don’t remember anything near Iraq & Afghanistan.
BenW, you’re consistently posting comments not worth my 2 seconds to skim them. Remain this “informed” as long as you like. I’m placing you on the ignore list with other noise.
Yup, BenW is die hard MAGA no matter how he tries to downplay his ever groveling and defense of Trump but he does have a child-like view of the world which is cute and entertaining. Almost like watching kids running down to the Christmas tree hoping Santa brought him lots of presents.
Extra bonus points for “So had Biden….” whatabout-ism to deflect from Trump. Lol.
It’s funny how MAGA people still bring up Biden. Most of us Dems have moved on 🙂
When you can’t justify what Trump is doing, all you have left is “what about Biden/Obama/Clinton….”
The Clintons were the prototype in the 1990s. Using them as symbols became an industry.
Of course you don’t bring up Biden. He was the worst president in our history. Nobody comes close, so you have to either forget him or go crazy for trying to rationalize why you voted for him.
You Dems love to move in nothing to see when others point to the piles of dog poop you leave. Like Cancel Culture, like deplatforming, like debunking, like threatening to throw purebloods into concentration camps and like forcing the jabs on people. So we libertarians wil keep reminding everyone so you don’t get the opportunity to mess up again.
>> BenW is die hard MAGA
I get what you’re saying, using the term as you define it. And how it’s commonly used.
…
In principle, *I* am MAGA. Absolutely love our (unfortunately “increasingly trashed”) Bill of Rights, Constitutional framework, and those “activist” (not) justices of the 60’s and 70’s that set a high bar for human rights.
I see a difference between MAGA in principle versus practice. (IMO Massie is the only practitioner. Ron Paul but IMO not Rand.)
I have no more respect or time for people who have failed to educate themselves after 3 years of the SMO and 8 months of Project 2025 admin nonsense to ask even remotely intelligent questions.
…and this is one of the problems with a term like “MAGA” that means different things to different people. Broad or ambiguous labels exclusively benefit TPTB, which uses identity politics to continually re-divide and re-conquer the proles under an ever-changing set of ambiguous labels.
We’ll debate the labels for a couple years. Then they’ll introduce a new one and we’ll argue about that. Meanwhile, the oligarchs advance their agenda.
Again, I am very much forward to looking forward to your never posting any reply to me, but don’t worry, I’ll keep calling you out for your BS & living large for your commitment to “ignore me”, probably another lie.
Sorry, dude, but the US would NOT be spending ten’s of billions of dollars to replenish our stockpiles had Biden done what Trump is doing. That’s a FACT!
Biden was beyond a dumpster fire. And BTW, I criticize Trump quite regularly. In fact, I’m critical of him WAY more than you’re complimentary of him which is never.
Thank you. I’m very happy you’re ignoring me. You made my day.
Re ‘meddling,’ you might start with a US Department of State packed with Russia-phobians (eg Nuland). The hatred is beyond reason.
Then, add in the Military/Industrial complex and think tanks chock full of bias. Let’s not forget our half-wit politicians who are as delusional as Zelensky. .
Even the NY Times wrote that the CIA had at least 12 CIA stations in Eastern Ukraine.
The relationship between Russia and Ukraine has been bitter and fraught, with plenty of fatalities (recalling Stalin’s collectivization, etc., etc.) So too the relations with the other nations bordering on Russia/USSR — Baltic states, etc. The USSR murdered people on a Hitler scale to create their hegemony and utopia. So to chalk this up to some cooked-up conspiracy of US apparatchiks is at best, grotesque oversimplification and distortion. You are, I believe, implying Russia has a natural hegemony over Ukraine or some such. Depends who you ask!
Peelo, we’ve been duped about Stalin too. Much western “history” is based on secondary sources written by a “historians” with ties to western oligarchs and their agencies. Just by reading FOIA releases during my lifetime, I conclude we should disregard everything “bad” they reveal except when establishing a minimal level of their own evil.
I doubt they started lying only after I was born. That means they lied about everything before that too.
I have only so much time in this life to devote to studying history. But I believe Michael Parenti mightve written some “contradictory” material re Stalin or at least the USSR. You might start there. Or people like Parenti.
Serious personal investigation into this matter might take a year or more. Maybe start with an LLM but ask it to completely disregard conventional opinion and focus on extremely contradictory research. Then try to find those books online.
It’s tedious, thankless work. On a case by case basis, I do it to reclaim my individuality. To not “reason” within a context of lies. To not be an NPC.
Ukrainian Cossacks themselves appealed to the Russian tsar to become part of the Russian empire and to liberate them from Swedish oppression. The Tsar needed a lot of convincing, kicking of a 15 year war against the Polish-Lithuanian empire.
This is why the Global South is quickly moving to trade with their own currencies instead of the dollar.
Just the waffling becomes a reason to decouple, in itself.
This admin never planned to “end the war” and still doesn’t. The goal was and remains: shift the cost of their war against Russia to European serfs, so USA serfs can pay for their war against China. Hegseth told Europeans this months ago. It’s one of those occasional admin statements consistent with their actions.
At least there would be an ostensible reasoning involved, if true. I’m afraid there isn’t even that, as we pay poker with nukes.
Just dig a little deeper. Peel the onion a little more. You’re close! I think. All this is a progressive research problem. One day you start questioning one thing and stop there. Another day you read more and peel back a new layer of obfuscation. Events start along a lot more sense.
Start watching Brian Berletic The New Atlas on Odysee. See the “content” tab.
Once you see through the surface waves and into the patterns of currents (in water and air), then the waves no longer baffle you. At some point, what baffles you is that people even bother paying attention to the waves at all.
…and if you’re really smart, you stop being baffled by people being baffled with bullshit.
Unfortunately, I’m not smart enough to learn that. Here I am online after 20 years still trying to share and encourage experiences of discovery, with people who will either do it on their own or not, completely without regard to what I say. … Frankly, I’m an idiot. /s
It seems like the oil sanctions will just motivate President Putin to ramp up military action, or even contemplate destroying Kiev and putting an end to this war. Like the NATO commander said about it being a senseless war…… yes, it need not have happened at all if the Minsk agreements had been done in good faith and signed.
Or if Russia had not invaded a sovereign nation.
That deserves a herp derp.
yeah. RUSSIA OWNED THOSE LANDS for 400 years
. urkaine for 30 years
and ukraine started from getgo saying sh1it after 1991 about Russia/USSR/russians, etc
as in USA say.. FA =>> FO
ps
btw mor1on. ukraine was part of anti iraq coalition 2001, based on wmd lies
The Ukraine is not sovereign. It just pretends to be. It is a controlled proxy state.
It seems as if the US has no firm policy under either the Biden or Trump administration. We only wanted to ‘dip-our-toe-in-the water’ on this conflict. First we say no Abrams tanks, then we ship Abrams….then no F-16 fighters, then we ship planes, …then no cluster-bombs, then we ship cluster bombs,…then no depleted uranium projectiles…those are shipped, possibly UK items,.. then no ATACMS missiles, then we ship ATACMS. Now Tomohawk cruise missiles are in play.
What’s next? US boots on Ukrainian soil? Nuclear weapons for Zelensky? The suspense is killing me.
TPTB “tiptoe” to boil the frog slowly. Both you at home (because they want your continued support or lack of resistance) and Russia.
Follow Brian Berletic The New Atlas on Odysee to learn more. Don’t bother reading any NATO “journalism”.
Exactly. They will eventually send everything they’d previously said they wouldn’t.
I fear we’re just a false flag away from changing public support for more US involvement in Ukraine – boots on the ground being one option. Some believe Bucha was a staged massacre, but it’s hard to tell given the biased media and propaganda on both sides is thick enough to cut with a knife. If the US/NATO has no problem using Ukrainian soldiers as fodder for their proxy war against Russia, it’s easy to imagine a false flag that would be horrific enough to change hearts and minds.
When I don my evil thinking cap, I think about feeding the grinder with one or more eastern countries (Poland, Moldova, Balkan or Baltic countries) and expressly without Article 5. Or, with “luck of McCain-Nuland”, open a new front anywhere in the Caucuses or Central Asia. For me, it makes sense for the new admin to pretend to distance itself from it.
While the ruling class of bankers and lawyers and warlords grind Europe and USA serfs into the dirt, China leads the world in innovation.
https://herecomeschina.substack.com/p/chinas-week-october-23
One of many examples of contrasts:
https://kdwalmsley.substack.com/p/nyc-subway-repairs-68-billion-california
It’s worked so well before let’s keep trying. Surely with Trump’s name on it it will work this time.
China won’t cooperate with the U.S. since they’re the next obvious target of America.
Exactly. This is why they have been buying gold and selling off U.S. debt for months. Why own debt of the country that would use that money against you? China is not actively supporting Russia, but it also has said that it’s not in their interest to see Russia fail. If Russia fails, China knows they and the other anti-NATO countries will be next.
watch avg. price of gas in Russia, and $/ruble currency rate for signs of stress. do not see much for now.
easy to google
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ruble went form 110 per $ to 80 per $ in 2025 .
despite oil going down whole year!
=As long as China and India keep buying Russian oil, the sanctions are useless.=
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wrong!!!!
sorry Mish, obv as most economists YOU HAVE NO CLUE ABOUT russian economy .
there is prevailing thinking that Russia is some kind of banana republic ( = oil, gas , etc) and if somehow West cut off exports Russia would collapse.. and give up!
well it is furthest from reality!
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=1 Russia live in ruble zone, so Russian central bank control money aggregates m1 m2 etc, and 99% of all transactions in Russia are made in rubles, not $$ or euro.
=2 Russia has lowest debt among g20 , around , 20*25% of gdp.
=3 Russia has been running positive TRADE balance for last 20 years (= yes its is novelty for USA), it fluctuates from $ 100 to 200 bil per year, it is 3rd biggest in world,after china and Germany. and it is positive, even w./ china in 2025
=4 Russia is 4th biggest economy in world, and most industrialized after china!
Russia has critical knowledge in such heavy industries like:
air/space military / civilian planes building,
rocket science / building
nuclear energy building,
overall military building,
ice breakers building,
road trains complex running / building,
software making (= yandex, kaspersky, telegram, VK),
etc etc etc
yes Russia does not build computers, and-or phones! closest friend Сhina does. or Russia cant build decent consumer cars. yes, it is true!
=5 most of Russia ppl lived in 90x. it is called Russian great depression.! google it
so if someone thinks Russians just bend over: READ SOME HIST BOOKS.
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and last MOST OBV.
less Russia EXPORTs OIL MORE OIL WILL BE LEFT for internal affairs. it is called 101 economics.
alx
PS
just watch avg. price of gas in Russia, and $/ruble currency rate for signs of stress. do not see much for now.
Funny, I thought Mish was mostly being /sarc
Russia invading Ukraine is like the US invading Canada. Strength is constrained, because if released, there would be no point in occupying the Ukraine.
The major point, though, is Ukraine is rapidly depleting its workforce, weakening it for the foreseeable future.
Right. You don’t want to trash the place you’re trying to acquire.
It’s not about acquiring UA — it’s about keeping US-NATO off their doorstep.
True, but in the process Russia acquires territory. If largely intact, it benefits Russia. If rubble, it is nothing but headaches.
Politicians always to the same thing again that did not work the first time . . . It won’t work this time either but TRUMP has to be seen as doing something since he is trying to extract the U.S. out off this mess without the U.S. losing Face . . . This way he can blame it on NATO but pocket some of the Dumb European Countries Money for buying U.S. made arms . . . Not a Bad Idea !
Oil prices have been dropping which could hurt Russian finances. The futures are up by a couple bucks this morning. Russia can thank Trump.
dip in oil balanced by currency rate. oil is down, $/ruble is up
russia dooes not live in $ based zone. read above
How is the U.S. fracking business going?
Endless “free” financing, paid for by devaluation.
Data Centers’ power consumption favors fracking in US : News
Mish, oil demand has been dropping. Hence, on my charts, I have been shorting WTI (CL) with every bounce back up into short Measured Moves. I am making a living doing it since the 90’s.