by Mish

Trump has soared in the latest polls in California, New York, Connecticut, Maryland, and Pennsylvania. In no recent polls of upcoming state primaries did Trump lose ground.

State by state, lets take a look.


In  the latest poll by YouGov, Trumps margin soared to 18 percentage points over Cruz, up from 7-8 percentage point in the two preceding polls.

This was barely enough to tip the state to Trump’s category from Cruz in Silver’s Secret Sauce methodology, but in Polls only things are looking might good for Trump.

Nate Silver’s Polls Only California Forecast

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Nate Silver’s Secret Sauce Forecast

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On April 15 Silver’s personal projection was that Cruz had a 60% chance of willing California.

I thought that was preposterous and it was.

An enormous discrepancy between Silver’s secret sauce projection and his polls only forecast still remains, but at least Silver now projects Trump will win California.

New York

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Each of the three most recent polls has Trump with a 50%+ majority of the vote. This matters because he needs a 50% margin to sweep the the 14 state delegates.  Trump will also sweep any districts in which he gets 50% or more.

In the latest poll, Cruz and Kasich are neck and neck. I gave Trump 86 of 95. The final breakdown may look something like this: 86 Trump, 5 Cruz, 4 Kasich.

We will find out on Tuesday.


Emerson college conducted the first Connecticut  poll since November. Here are the results.


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I predicted Trump would win 19 of 28 Connecticut delegates. If Trump can top 50%, he could conceivably get all 28.

There’s another interesting twist. At the district level, one needs 20% to pick up delegates. It is possible Kasich wins a handful of delegates with Cruz winning zero.


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Trumped picked up ground in Pennsylvania from the second most recent poll.

Pennsylvania is a curious state that awards only 17 of its 71 delegates to the winner. The other 54 are unbound.

Cruz’s organization is highly unlikely to pick up all of those. In fact, slightly more than half of Pennsylvania’s unbound delegates said they’d support the candidate who wins the popular vote statewide or in their districts, according to a surveyconducted by the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review.

Things look far better for Trump in Pennsylvania than most believe.


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Donald Trump surged a whopping 14 percentage points compared to the second most recent poll.

I had already awarded all 32 Maryland delegates, so there is nothing more for him to pick up.

Every Poll Breaking Hard in Favor of Trump

For whatever reason, every recent poll is breaking very hard in Trump’s favor.

Perhaps some of Trump’s recent comments on abortion have worn off. Perhaps it is something obscure that Cruz did or said.

Cruz’s inane comments on sex toys could even have played a part, or might still.

It doesn’t matter that much why. But every recent poll, including California, Pennsylvania,  and Maryland breaking Trump’s way is a sign this is not just the Northeast.

If these totals hold and Indiana follows suit, the nomination goes to trump barring a rules change at the convention.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

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