by Mish

Trump has soared in the latest polls in California, New York, Connecticut, Maryland, and Pennsylvania. In no recent polls of upcoming state primaries did Trump lose ground.

State by state, lets take a look.

California

In  the latest poll by YouGov, Trumps margin soared to 18 percentage points over Cruz, up from 7-8 percentage point in the two preceding polls.

This was barely enough to tip the state to Trump’s category from Cruz in Silver’s Secret Sauce methodology, but in Polls only things are looking might good for Trump.

Nate Silver’s Polls Only California Forecast

Image placeholder title

Nate Silver’s Secret Sauce Forecast

Image placeholder title

On April 15 Silver’s personal projection was that Cruz had a 60% chance of willing California.

I thought that was preposterous and it was.

An enormous discrepancy between Silver’s secret sauce projection and his polls only forecast still remains, but at least Silver now projects Trump will win California.

New York

Image placeholder title

Each of the three most recent polls has Trump with a 50%+ majority of the vote. This matters because he needs a 50% margin to sweep the the 14 state delegates.  Trump will also sweep any districts in which he gets 50% or more.

In the latest poll, Cruz and Kasich are neck and neck. I gave Trump 86 of 95. The final breakdown may look something like this: 86 Trump, 5 Cruz, 4 Kasich.

We will find out on Tuesday.

Connecticut

Emerson college conducted the first Connecticut  poll since November. Here are the results.

RECOMMENDED ARTICLES

Image placeholder title

I predicted Trump would win 19 of 28 Connecticut delegates. If Trump can top 50%, he could conceivably get all 28.

There’s another interesting twist. At the district level, one needs 20% to pick up delegates. It is possible Kasich wins a handful of delegates with Cruz winning zero.

Pennsylvania

Image placeholder title

Trumped picked up ground in Pennsylvania from the second most recent poll.

Pennsylvania is a curious state that awards only 17 of its 71 delegates to the winner. The other 54 are unbound.

Cruz’s organization is highly unlikely to pick up all of those. In fact, slightly more than half of Pennsylvania’s unbound delegates said they’d support the candidate who wins the popular vote statewide or in their districts, according to a surveyconducted by the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review.

Things look far better for Trump in Pennsylvania than most believe.

Maryland

Image placeholder title

Donald Trump surged a whopping 14 percentage points compared to the second most recent poll.

I had already awarded all 32 Maryland delegates, so there is nothing more for him to pick up.

Every Poll Breaking Hard in Favor of Trump

For whatever reason, every recent poll is breaking very hard in Trump’s favor.

Perhaps some of Trump’s recent comments on abortion have worn off. Perhaps it is something obscure that Cruz did or said.

Cruz’s inane comments on sex toys could even have played a part, or might still.

It doesn’t matter that much why. But every recent poll, including California, Pennsylvania,  and Maryland breaking Trump’s way is a sign this is not just the Northeast.

If these totals hold and Indiana follows suit, the nomination goes to trump barring a rules change at the convention.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

Bloomberg Soars to 15% in Latest Quinnipiac Poll

A Quinnipiac University poll has Bernie Sanders in the lead, Joe Biden in second place and Michael Bloomberg in third.

Don't Watch the Latest Polls, Instead Watch the Trends

Here's the 6 most recent Tory poll results: 40, 36, 34, 36, 41, 36. Is there a trend? Yes, you have to dig to find it.

Tories Take Crushing Lead in Latest Polls

The latest polls show increasing leads for the Tories. The trends by pollster are increasingly favorable as well.

Still More Tightening in French Polls

A week ago, French polls had tightened to the point where any combination of candidates could make it to the final round.

Merkel’s CDU/CSU Party Loses Lead in Two of Three Latest Polls: Coalition Math

On February 3, polls showed German chancellor Angela Merkel is less popular than her opponent Martin Schulz. (See Merkel an Election Shoo-In? Nope, Think Again)

AfD Tied or Ahead of SPD in Latest Two Polls

AfD has surpassed or tied SPD in the latest Germany polls. Support for the CDU/CSU union is also trending lower.

UK Election: Resurgence of Tory Support in Final Polls

Survation posted a pair of back-to-back polls on June 2-3 that had the lead for Theresa May’s Tories (conservatives), down to 1% over Jeremy Corbyn’ Labour Party.

Brexit: About That Online/Phone Discrepancy (It Vanished); Surprising Poll After Cox Murder

Graphs below show Brexit poll results since June 10. There were 10 polls in all, five online and 5 phone.

Brexit Party Soars in European Parliament Polls, 9 Points Ahead of Labour

Nigel Farage's newly formed Brexit Party is in first place in European Parliament polls, pulling well ahead of Labour.