Remember the Phase One trade deal between the US & China?
Let’s check in with the Peterson Institute for International Economics PIIE US-China Phase One Tracker to see how Trump’s trade deal is going.
Phase One Imports and Exports
The Tracker shows that as of March 2020, China’s purchases of all covered products were around 40-46% of their year-to-date targets.
Note the huge difference between what China says it is importing vs what the US says it is exporting.
Agriculture
- China Imports: $5.1 Billion
- US Exports: $3.1 Billion
Manufactured Goods
- China Imports: $14.6 Billion
- US Exports: $10.9 Billion
Energy
- China Imports: $0.1 Billion
- US Exports: $0.4 Billion
Uncovered
- China Imports: $7.7 Billion
- US Exports: $7.6 Billion
Two Sets of Numbers
- China says it imported $27.5 Billion.
- The US says it exported $22.0 Billion
Agreement Methodology
The agreement’s Chapter 6, Article 6.2.6 states “Official Chinese trade data and official US trade data shall be used to determine whether this Chapter has been implemented.” One implication is that there are two sets of monthly data to track (Chinese imports and US exports). A second is that there are two different annual, and hence monthly, targets, since the 2017 baseline level of Chinese imports differs from the 2017 baseline level of US exports.
The amazing Trump trade team negotiated those fine stipulations.
Bear in mind that the March numbers are before Covid-19 significantly hit the US, but had already hit China hard.
Trump Tariffs Disrupted Critical Coronavirus Supplies
In addition to the failure of Phase One, please note Tariffs Disrupted Medical Supplies Critical to US Coronavirus Fight.
The US-China trade war has forced US buyers to reduce purchases of medical supplies from China and seek alternative sources. US imports of Chinese medical products covered by the Trump administration’s 25 percent tariffs dropped by 16 percent in 2019 compared with two years earlier.
It feels so unfair on the rest of the world for Trump to have all this winning.
Can’t we spread it around a bit?
Mish
Maybe we need to increase the tariffs.
This is what winning looks like.
Maybe the trade figures have something to do with strong dollar, which was flying since the pandemic fallout. The second thing is that the US has very little to offer in terms of consumer goods and machinery, except maybe Boeing.
It’s a pandemic. Mish is a very smart man but sometimes he lets his emotions get in the way.
If the goal is to decouple from China and the globalist networks for whom they are the manufacturing hub and begin to restructure global supply chains, then things might be doing alright. In any case, have to wait until the corona thing is over and/or there is no follow-up asymmetric attack. Right now China is making war noises, mustering troops near Hong Kong (therefore also Taiwan), attacking in India, symbiotic ally Russia is sending jets near Libya. Conventional financial metrics are a bit hard to read in what is essentially a worldwide natural disaster type situation.
China added a clause in the deal that in case of a pandemic it will not be able to comply with it’s promises.
Surely Mish you were aware of that clause.
Are you saying the Chinese are not keeping their promises?
Tell me it is not so! lol
Shocking.
Reconciliation of import/export numbers in bilateral relationships are always a source discussion in bilateral relationships, because of the way one accounts for re-exportation of component manufactures and raw materials. Even CdnUS discussions and EU countries are impacted by such accounting.
#1 person seriously not surprised? Trump. Xi thought he could cheat. Wrong. Outcome: Trump gave Xi the rope to hang himself, and Xi cooperated enthusiastically. Expect large increases in tariffs on trade with China, timed with respect to the election, or perhaps soon.
One problem with Xi triggering a suicide belt is we are hugging him.
Another apologist for the Great Leader, Kim Il Trump. His cult members never get tired of singing his praises.
Increased tariffs hurt American consumers just at the time when they are hurting financially. Sounds like a really smart move. Despite what our beloved president says tariffs are paid by American consumers.
The China situation just got a lot worse (or better depending on your view) today with Pimpeo saying Hong Kong is no longer autonomous and so will trigger sanctions.
Tech billionaires are plotting sweeping, secret plans to boost Joe Biden
Inside the experiments, data wars, and partisan news sites that Silicon Valley thinks can help Biden catch up to Trump.
Alternate headline:
“Business Owners Plot to Oust Moron President in Bid to Save the Civilization that Enables Their Profits”
Civilization died with The Fed and income taxes. The former is simply incompatible with the two latter, period.
Even if a tiny smattering of “tech billionaires” are profitable, “profits” are hardly where their billions came from.
It really is sad, as many of those guys would be loaded regardless. It’s not as if many of them haven’t been involved in greatness.
But it truly is a testament to the utter destructiveness of financialized progressivism, that even guys the likes of Page and Brin, who as much as anyone revolutionized the world; will go to their grave having “made” far and away most of their money by way of nothing more useful than sitting there, as The Fed and government robbed innocent children into homelessness and starvation in order to obtain loot to hand the two of them.
Yes! What is the point of having the Illuminati if they don’t act?
When you imposed an unrealistically high bar to start with, did anybody really believe that miracle will actually happen? let alone the lockdowns.
By sheer luck Trump should hit more than none of his goals. Wall building, paying off the entire debt (LMAO), 4, 5, even 6% GDP growth, trade magic, 15 cases in a few days will be zero, etc. When you brag to the world about everything, you’re inviting accountability, but in this case Trump excuses himself from 100% of the responsibility, as do many of his followers. Sad!
“It is something you’re going to be hearing about before the end of the week. Very powerfully, I think,” Trump told reporters. He said the administration would be doing something “very interesting.”
“Very powerfully.”
“Very interesting.”
How will it compare to, “Big action”?
Can’t wait for this week to end.
Nothingburgers for dinner again! Yum!
Trade wars are never won. It is only a question of who loses the least. This is precisely the time that world leaders should be working together to get thru this economic downturn.
“US exports are less than half of purchases pledged by China”
…
It will worsen.
offshore yuan 7.18 to $US.
My front runner for Black Swan was China devaluation.
Will it be orderly? … or not?