Let’s discuss some interesting Tweets on a variety of topics including mortgage rates, auto loan delinquencies, solar power, Binance, medical advances, and commercial real estate.
Consumer Credit
“Consumer credit (credit cards + other personal loans) as a share of disposable income are hovering near 9.5% which is just about as high as the series ever gets.”
Personal Interest Payments
Auto Delinquencies
SEC Lashes Out at Binance, Threatening to Seek a Contempt Order
Excellent News on the Medical Front
Things Government Has Made More Efficient
You have to admit that looting in San Francisco is far more efficient than at any time in history. And no one gets physically hurt as long as they stand back or cooperate with the looters.
Who says government never improves efficiency?
Solar Will Win, How Fast and What Cost?
Regarding the big win for solar power, please note Biden’s Solar Push Is Destroying the Desert and Releasing Stored Carbon
Also note Biden’s Green Energy Inflation Reduction Act Needs a Big Bailout Already
So precisely who is winning, by how much, and in what time frame?
Commercial Real Estate
No Winning Action
People want the Fed to declare victory over inflation because rent is a lagging variable. So is shelter.
But it was absurd policy that created the housing bubble because the Fed and economists in general consider housing prices a capital expense, not a consumer expense.
So what?
Inflation matters, not just consumer inflation. Consecutive bubbles proves as much.
Many people supported Krugman because rent is lagging.
That Tweet encapsulates the problem. We clearly have an asset bubble. Cutting rates because “rent is lagging” will fuel the asset bubble deepening the problem for the 35 percent of the unlucky ones who rent.
So let’s sat FY to the renters and pray to God rent does come down this time like it’s supposed to.
Will it?
I have no idea, nor does anyone else, because that is how much the Fed distorted everything, hoping to get more inflation and succeeding in spades.
Nearly every economist was wrong in predicting rents. The whole lot of them have been expecting for at least a year that rents would decline because the price of new leases was falling.
National Rent Price vs CPI Month-Over-Month
Let’s assume rents will fall and also the cheerleaders get their way and the Fed cuts.
What will that do to home prices?
Another Look at the Question: How Big is the US Housing Bubble?
For discussion, please see Another Look at the Question: How Big is the US Housing Bubble?
For at least 12 years, Case-Shiller, rent, average hourly earnings, and the CPI all rose together. Home prices then disconnected compared to everything else.
Then in 2012, rent disconnected from the CPI.
But hey, let’s ignore all that and bow down to the it’s lagging crowd. And let’s totally ignore home prices because they are a capital expense.
Besides, who gives a damn about the 35 percent who rent and especially those looking to buy their first home.
Meanwhile, sell your house (to who?) and do what? This is the mess the Fed made and Krugman can’t see.
CNN/BBC will not be telling you this:
“The COVID-19 vaccines did not save lives and appear to be lethal toxic agents.”
This is the strident position of a new paper by Denis Rancourt et al., analysing all-cause mortality (ACM) in 17 countries in the Southern Hemisphere and equatorial region.
The authors find a “definite causal link” between peaks in all-cause mortality and rapid vaccine rollouts across four continents and a broad range of vaccine products, inlcuding the mRNAs, Covaxin, Sinovac and Johnson & Johnson.
The paper, which is 180 pages long and is yet to be peer-reviewed,* attempts to quantify the fatal toxicity risk per injection, which appears to be “exceedingly large in the most elderly.”
https://news.rebekahbarnett.com.au/p/definite-causal-link-between-all
You always blame the Fed for the problems, but it is CONgress and other Govt Agencies that crushed supply chains and confidence with coronadoom policies and the relentless fraud & corruption.
It was the Neocons that started the Ukraine war and are pushing for WWIII, which is a big source of inflation.
It has been all of the gloBull Warming nutjobs selling a lie that is pushing energy prices higher, when the current warming cycle, that occurred after the last Little Ice Age, is ending and was lower than the two previous warming cycles, and occurred long before the discovery of oil and the invention of the internal combustion engine, which increased prosperity and reduced pollution.
Don’t get me wrong, the Fed should also be run out of town before they unleash CBDC’s, but who is going to stop them?
Meanwhile gasoline rocketed up 10% and is still rising here in Los Angeles in the last couple weeks. That’s gotta be inflationary. This Ukraine mess was dumb for everyone but the politicians getting paid and the MIC. Democrats and the Neocons better be hoping for a mild winter.
“inflationary” is the wrong word – it’s policy driven price rises, not financially or market driven price rises… “political-price-rise-ificationary” is perhaps more accurate.
Sure, rising petrol prices push up costs downstream everywhere, but it’s scarcity…
Gas at Costco has gone up 90 cents/gal since July 25th!
I assume this trend will continue as more EV’s enter service, forcing gas stations to lean hard on their remaining customers to maintain their profit margins.
Why isn’t anyone writing about this?
“Personal interest payments have surpassed $500 billion. Let that sink in.”
The accompanying chart looks like a blow off top.
Paul Krugman tells me this is a GoldiLocks economy..everyone wins. People are spending money with little grugility, taking vacations, air travel up, seems little the Fed can do to stop people form spending their money. People do not financially act like inflation is a concern now or in the future. People’s paychecks went up this year, companies are forced to pay employees more and this is a good things for the economy. as these same people are spending this new hard earned money in the pproproiate sectors. It’s a win, all day. PPL making something out of nothing, their is no evidence of ab economic recession either.
So this all must be true.
The economy would be a lot better if there was no:
lockdowns
sanctions
netzero
debt increases for helicopter money, proxy wars, ecojihadis (see above).
…take those political/ideological policies away, and actually, the world economy is noticeably less bad, albeit still with significant demographic and debt challenges to resolve, but a lot of potential for real growth if there was neocolonialism in parts of Asia, Africa, and Latin America… allowing the primitive countries to run themselves (into the ground) is an extraordinary inefficiency that costs millions of people in those places opportunities, and also is a missed opportunity for those in developed countries to invest in growth with real returns. …but I doubt that’s in Krugman’s model of anything, and he probably sees no problem with financialisation, managmentitis and layers of parasitic rent-seeking bullshit jobs.
1) Two decades of oil glut, between 1980’s and 1990’s beat inflation, not Paul Volcker. In 2023 oil production is higher than in 2019, a new all time high.
2) USD rose from 71 in 2008 to 110 in 2023.
3) Bernanke Financial Service Regulatory Act of 2006 made it legal to short
selling people bank accounts. Consumers and companies cash in commercial
banks almost tripled between Aug 2008 and Aug 2023. NO PRINTING !
Yup, all that money has simply appeared from within Americans’ mattresses.
No Government required.
None at all.
The chart showing the ratio of consumer loans to disposable income indicates consumers really did not recover from the Great Financial Crisis after the housing bubble burst. There was a short, sharp improvement due to COVID, but consumers resumed borrowing. The ratio is now back to historic levels. There is a lot of pain. The upcoming recession may be the one that forces consumers to borrow more judiciously.
COVID my A$$. That short improvement was due to the Government pouring heaps and heaps of money into the American economy.
1) High tech is down, but weapons production is up. Ammunition export reached an
all time high. We import millions of black/blond people from Venezuela, Africa and
Ukraine. The native hosts are against them, but within one generation, or two, they
will be like us and we will be like them. They might be more conservative than we are,
believing in god, family and country.
2) Between 2008 and 2020 US gov paid negative interest rates on (10T + 30T)/2,
perhaps $1.5T/y for 13 years. In Q3 2023 interest rates are positive. Consumers and companies are flushed with money. USD isn’t falling.
3) Commercial banks lend less, but Bidenomic reboot the economy : road works all
over the place, new factories constructions from OH to AZ, multi families apt… Paul Krugman : it is deflationary.
Biden and the Inflation Reproduction Act will reboot American.
Unfortunately Americans soon won’t be able to afford new boots.
The FED, being “behind the curve” allows economic conditions to deteriorate to the point its corrective actions result in a hard landing.
Bernanke overcorrected, conducting the most contractionary monetary policy since the Great Depression. Powell, like Volcker, has let the economy burn itself out. I.e., Powell has been reactive, not proactive.
The correct approach to stagflation is to drain reserves, while cutting interest rates. The 1966 Interest Rate Adjustment Act is the antecedent and precedent. Interest is the price of credit. And lending by the nonbanks (back then the thrifts) is noninflationary (results in the turnover of existing money).
Waller, Williams, and Logan seem to agree. They “believe the Fed can keep unloading bonds even when officials cut interest rates at some future date.”
…but where are you going to “drain reserves” to? They can’t leave the reserve system, they can only be created and destroyed. They are about as much use as a bucket of farts.
Whilst I am no fan of Krugman (a Nobel Prize seems to more associated with incredibility than credibility these days, when you look at the bizarre list of recipients), and I agree that CPI is a garbage manipulated statistic, and rent is as much a consumer expense as any other bill or tax, when I see comments from Mish like:
“Krugman likes to exclude shelter(34.8%) , food (13.4%) , and energy (7.0%) from the CPI. That’s 55.2% exclusions. Why not exclude everything?”
and
“All caused by ignoring housing bubbles as inflation. My position and accurately so since 2006.”
I’m bemused whether (and if so why) Mish thinks there is such a thing as inflation?
The reduction in economic activity, and increase in prices around the world due to policy decisions like lockdown hysteria, sanctions hysteria, netzero hysteria, etc… is all deflationary. Interest rates rising is due to bonds and other securities being sold off to invest elsewhere where there is growth potential or put in cash to grab bargains as financial jenga towers tumble.
There is no actual real significant inflation, in terms of nominal prices rising as currencies are devalued, because there are fewer loans being issued, loaning currency units into existence.
Obviously, creating bank reserves is not actual money printing, because they can’t be used in the real economy, even by banks, to issue loans… loans are issued to make profit with higher rates, on actual economic growth, but that isn’t happening, as the CRE data suggests, never mind the Chinese economic implosion data, or global developed country demographic collapse data.
The global economy is facing a crisis of deflation and depression, and all the illegal immigration is an effort to shore up the collapse of numbers of consumers that are needed to keep the developed world’s economies afloat. Obviously it won’t work, because incomers adapt to and adopt the behaviours of the host economy, never mind the social and economic degradation and demand-driven price rises that result from mass immigration, especially when it is illegal, unwanted, and has no cultural and ethnic affinity with the host population.
I doubt Krugman understands what is and isn’t inflation either, and even a stopped clock can tell right time twice a day if it’s paid enough attention to, and in this case it’s possible for Krugman to be correct by accident, rather than on purpose, and for prices to still be rising, because the causes of nominal price rises at the moment and recently seem mainly (geo)political and ideological rather than economic or financial.
People ought to look at the eurodollar capital flows to see what is really happening in terms of global trade, not just the bond market, or all this “printer go brr” garbage.
re: “creating bank reserves is not actual money printing”
Reserve bank credit decreases the demand, and increases the supply, of loan funds. It suppresses interest rates. Asset price valuations are driven from the appraisal of loan collateral. It redirects the monetary transmission mechanism causing investors to re-price and re-distribute.
Paul Volcker was dumb as a rock. Paul Volcker was quoted in the WSJ in 1983 that the Fed: “as a matter of principle favors payment of interest on all reserve balances” … “on rounds of equity”. [sic]
Can you show an example of a loan being made because of bank reserves being issued?
The money that “issued” in loans is not “from” bank reserves, it’s credit, extended from nonexistence to existence. Bank reserves can’t be used.
Bank reserves are in a closed system, they never leave the bank reserve system, they aren’t used for anything in the world of loans. Bank reserves are not collateral for loans that banks make – they can’t be used to replenish defaulted loans or depleted deposits. They don’t do anything, except make central banks look like they do something. Central banks don’t create money at all, they don’t determine interest rates. They are very much the wizard of oz or a third nipple. If they were just ignored by markets (as they increasingly are), they would cease to exist. Show me a bank reserve, put it in my hand, used to buy something, or be collateral for debt… if you can do that, I have a bridge you might be interested in.
1) Consumers and companies have $17.3T in commercial banks ==> up $10.5T
from $6.8T in Jan 2008, a tripled concerto in thirteen years.
2) The flow to MM dented banks deposits a little : instead of $11T commercial banks have “only” $10.5T newly created money by the Fed. MM funds invest in gov bonds.
3) Inflation leaped from 0.1% in May 2020 to 9,1% in 2022, down to 3% in 2023.
The newly created money deposited in commercial banks almost stayed the
same. The banks are strong.
re: ” The flow to MM dented banks deposits a little”
No, the NBFIs are not in competition with the DFIs. They are the DFI’s customers.
Please tell us where inflation is 3%.
I would like to move there, it has become too expensive here.
My violin for the large corporate owners holding the pile of **** that is CRE is ever so small. After all the nonsense that has transpired since March 2020, I have no sympathy for them. They watched idly as all those small businesses shuttered, never to come back.
I enjoy watching these CRE owners desperately try to get workers to come “back into the office”, only for it to go nowhere.
WFH is here to stay. Actions have consequences, now enjoy your **** sandwich in those corrupt, big cities.
If the bank holding my $500,000 mortgage would try to sell it they would only get $350,000 for it. Maybe I could buy it from them for $400,000?
Yep as far as interest rates and debt (i.e., bonds, mortgages).
Generally for every 1% increase in interest rates, there is a 1% decrease in price of a bond for every year of the bond duration. So a 5 year bond would decrease 5% if interest rates increase by 1%.
Look at Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF and it dropped about 26% from recent peak.
And there is a general rule that a 1% increase in the 30 year mortgage rate equates to a 10% drop in housing price based on mortgage affordability standards.
From what I read recently, if the 30 year mortgage rate gets down to 5.5% then housing market sales should start to show improvement. It looks like peak prices were set around 4% rate in early 2020.
Is that only true of the American housing market though?
Your bank already has sold it to Fannie Mae who packaged it with other loans and sold that package to investors. If you go to your bank to buy back the loan you will get a blank stare.
some countries do let you purchase your own mortgage on secondary market.
Some countries have free and open markets for mortgage notes.
The difference between the balance of the principal and amount paid to the bank for the mortgage could trigger a cap gain tax. If the mortgage were purchased and you paid yourself back, you would have to pay taxes on the interest. Even though that interest would be tax deductible, there is still a little bit of money going to the government. The strategy to avoid taxes altogether is to buy the mortgage and then refinance with yourself at 0%.
“Inverse vaccine” shows potential to treat multiple sclerosis and other autoimmune diseases https://pme.uchicago.edu/news/inverse-vaccine-shows-potential-treat-multiple-sclerosis-and-other-autoimmune-diseases
I am reminded of the axiom about things that are too good to be true.
Meanwhile I’ve got 4 good friends with ruined hearts from the so-called Safe and Effective Covid Vaccines:
1. Semi pro hockey player 34 yrs old – within hours of shot 1 he could barely walk. He has myocarditis and will never be the same again
2. 42 year old I-banker mate. Super fit – ran competitively. Shot one felt horrible – to keep his job he took shot 2. Was blind for 12 hours after – and as he puts it he laid down in bed that night and thought he was going to die. He was diagnosed with severe myocarditis by the top cardiologist in the UK Aseem Malhotra and the prognosis is that he is unlikely to live beyond 5 years.
3. Fitness instructor at my gym – early 30’s. Extremely fit. A week after shot 2 she had a stroke mid spin class and was carted away by ambulance. She is no longer able to work.
4. Fitness instructor at my gym – late 20’s – again extremely fit. Had a seizure while leading a body pump class. This occurred within a few weeks of shot 2. She has returned to work
This is a bloodbath (and only a fraction of all injuries get reported here)
1,592,259 Reports Through September 08, 2023
https://openvaers.com/covid-data
And then there is Ed Dowd Blackrock portfolio manager who has demonstrated that the vax injury disabilities are through the roof… this has caused epic issues with the labour market
Thanks but no thanks for the new vaccine
And btw – for those with type 2 diabetes instead of shooting up with more dodgy concoctions – why not try stuffing your fat faces with processed foods washed down with super-sized cokes
Toot toot!
Beep beep. Can’t handle the truth, Zardoz? The Covid shots have been dangerous to a substantial number of people. Nothing other than the Covid shot, logically explains the sudden jump in all cause mortality in the fall of 2021. For 2 years the CDC hid the fact that their death safety signal triggered within a month of first injections. The FDA is hiding autopsy data on dead Covaxxed people. Obviously, there is something wrong with the shots, when the FDA won’t let the public see the data.
Fast Eddy, great post! They can keep their death shots, at this point, anyone believing anything government says is a fool, or has the IQ of their shoe size. Everyone knows the truth about the jabs but it gets zero attention from the bought and paid for media.
I expected a wave of people telling me that they know many who were very much affected physically by covid and only a couple responded. I put it down to that no one reads what I write which is very logical. Nevertheless it is remarkable that the only people sharing horror stories on both sides limit themselves to certain medias that are followed by many. In those followed by few then we see nothing. Mish, this means that your site is under the radar of whoever makes it their business to either support covid vaccines or are violently opposed. I think it’s a good thing because it is real.
Since we are using anecdotal evidence I would like to take a bit of a pool. Myself the vaccine had no bad effect whatsoever except a sore arm. My wife only felt a bit bad for a day. My parents who are 100 years old never felt a thing. No one in my immediate family had a bad reaction. Some of my friends had bad reactions but nothing more than enough to take a few days off. None had heart problems as far as I have heard and none have dropped dead. Several have caught covid but none were hospitalized. Maybe I am lucky in that neither covid nor the vaccines seemed to have been hurt my family or friends. Nevertheless from media, news and the internet I keep hearing horror stories and get the impression that if you don’t take the vaccine you will die and if you do you will die so I was wondering if people here have had something that resembles my experience or the experience of Fast Eddy.
No vaccine here.
No sore arm
No feeling bad
No few days off
But a boat load of worry for those who were forced to take a life threatening vaccine that did nothing but make the problem worse.
Notice how all the Vaxxed folks are getting covid and other illnesses over and over and over?
That’s because the vaccines wreck your immune system
Vaccination with vaccines that fail to stop transmission affects the evolutionary dynamics of pandemics. If you vaccinate someone three times with a particular variant of a virus, you can expect that a variant will eventually evolve, that figures out how to abuse original antigenic sin to its own advantage.
To explain once more, original antigenic sin is the phenomenon where the sort of antibody response deployed against a virus depends on the first exposure to said virus. If a new version of the virus then infects you, the antibody response you produce will be a derivative of the first response you made. This can be a less effective response, than if you had never been exposed to that virus before.
And that brings us to the XBB.1* family of variants, which are about 90% of all cases detected around the world these days. Thanks to a new study, we now know how this family of variants managed to take over the world: They have figured out how to abuse our immune system’s original antigenic sin mechanism to a maximal extent.
A number of animals were vaccinated, others were not, then the scientists infected them with different Omicron variants and checked whether the animals would still deploy a proper antibody response against those variants. And here you have the picture that shows you what they found:
On the left we see B.1.1. We see that both vaccinated and unvaccinated animals develop a proper antibody response after infection. Second from left we see BA.2. Unvaccinated animals develop a stronger antibody response than the vaccinated, but the difference is not very large. For BQ.1.1 the difference is bigger, that’s where we see a problem emerge: A number of the vaccinated animals just don’t produce any measurable neutralizing antibodies at all.
And then we arrive at the ugly part. They infected the animals with XBB.1. The unvaccinated animals deploy a normal antibody response against XBB.1 as a response. But the vaccinated ones don’t. Their antibody response is non-detectable in the majority of the animals. We also see that in the unvaccinated animals, the response against XBB.1 also works against XBB.1.5, suggesting protection from rapid reinfection in a real world scenario. In the vaccinated animals, the response against XBB.1.5 is also non-detectable.
In other words, the XBB.1* family is the family that figured out our collective hole in our shield against viruses, the nasty little place on the spectrum where our antibody response can’t block Spike because we’re just constantly deploying slightly mutated antibodies derived from our original response to the Wuhan spike protein. The evolution towards XBB.1*, is the evolution towards maximal use of the original antigenic sin humanity imposed upon itself.
https://www.rintrah.nl/xbb-1-the-variant-family-that-has-learned-how-to-use-vaccine-imprinting-to-its-own-advantage/
CDC Now Refusing New COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports in Its V-Safe Program
By David Gortler
August 24, 2023
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) V-safe website quietly stopped collecting adverse event reports with no reason or explanation. The V-safe website simply states: “Thank you for your participation. Data collection for COVID-19 vaccines concluded on June 30, 2023.” If you go there today, V-safe directs users to the FDA’s VAERS website for adverse event reporting, even though officials continually derided VAERS as “passive” and “unverified.”
VAERS and V-safe are mutually exclusive safety collection databases operated by the FDA and CDC, respectively. VAERS is an older way of collecting safety data where one can fill out a form online, or manually, or by calling a toll-free number, whereas V-safe is a device “app” which requires online registration. Both VAERS and V-safe collect personal information, lot numbers, dates and associated information, but V-safe was an active collection system geared towards a younger app-using demographic.
…
https://brownstone.org/articles/cdc-refusing-new-covid-vaccine-adverse-event-reports/
That’s what you do when something is neither Safe .. nor Effective…
Oh and you blame all the vaccine injuries on Covid hahaha…
It would be funny except that the mob believes it – and they eagerly await the latest shot of Rat Juice … because they believe (drum roll) it’s safe… and effective
Covid may have permanently damaged people’s immunity
Covid infections are putting people at higher risk of diabetes, strokes, heart disease and other long-term illnesses – but experts warn it may be decades before the full impact is known.
Meanwhile, could Covid-19 also be blamed for the increased frequency and severity of colds and flu? Has it damaged our ability to fight off infections?
“People are turning up at long Covid clinics and saying: ‘No one told me that my fourth or fifth infection could cause this’.
https://www.1news.co.nz/2023/09/13/covid-may-have-permanently-damaged-peoples-immunity/
“Maybe I am lucky in that neither covid nor the vaccines seemed to have been hurt my family or friends.”
I’m equally lucky here. I caught covid before the vax was available and had a one degree fever and a mild cough for a week.
The unvaxed daughter caught the dreaded delta variant and had a one degree fever and a mild cough for a week.
Vaccinated friends caught delta and were miserable for a week and dragging around for two more, but fully recovered after a month.
The credibility of the medical profession is at an all time low with meat least.
Also at an all-time low is the ability of people to drive. Accident rates are way up. People are speculating that the brain fog effects of long Covid are responsible, but how do you prove that? Or disprove it?
Most people have brain fog occasionally. Some people have it all the time for various reasons. most often not due to covid. Sometimes it is a hangover.
Appears to be a lot of it in this comment section.
I like how people make up excuses for their brain fog… I suppose it’s better than accepting that you have damaged yourself with a dodgy shot that was rolled out in literally months and not tested properly.
Have a look at this — it was the first thing I found when I heard about Operation Warp Speed
https://www.wired.com/2003/05/feds-race-to-make-sars-vaccine/
Long Covid is a new name for an old syndrome
By Steven Phillips and Michelle A. Williams
Sept. 14, 2023
Long Covid goes by many names. Today, it is no longer a new public health enigma, but the outlook for sufferers is no better than when the condition was first recognized in early 2020. Although its prevalence has recently decreased to 6% of the U.S. adult population, there has been no significant progress in understanding its causes, prevention, or treatment. Long Covid still looms as the national health disaster many predicted. Everyone — patients, support groups, clinicians, researchers, and health care systems — is frustrated by lack of meaningful progress in research and patient care.
On the research side, the U.S. government rapidly anticipated and tried to blunt the force of this national calamity by investing in basic and clinical research. Hopes were raised in December 2020 when Congress provided $1.15 billion over four years to the NIH to launch its long Covid research initiative called RECOVER. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention additionally initiated its Innovative Support for Patients with Covid-19 Infections Registry (INSPIRE). Veterans Affairs also deployed the nation’s largest health care system in support of LC research.
Now, more than two years down this ambitious path, and with published results emerging, outraged experts and patient advocates say that there is “little to show for it.” The critique is that mostly observational studies have characterized risk factors, demographics, and attributes of the clinical syndrome, but little has emerged that directly contributes to prevention or patient care.
…
https://www.statnews.com/2023/09/14/long-covid-me-cfs-myalgic-encephalomyelitis-chronic-fatigue/
The thing is …
They claim long covid is caused by the spike protein in the covid virus.
But hang on … the Covid vaccine causes the body to make epic volumes of that same spike — indefinitely.
Hmmmm… logic is a bitch ain’t it!
It’s not quite as dangerous as playing Russian Roulette…
I agree.
I had 2 shots mostly due to perverse pressure in the great white north. So did most of the family/friends that I know trust enough to discuss (many had 3 I guess, maybe a few had 4). Not going to another shot until there is a full and proper test of the things. I am not anti-vax but what happened was pretty much ridiculous. They can fire me at this point, but I will not do another medical intervention without actual real evidence it benefits my health and not their benefactors/pocketbooks.
Got Covid at least once, maybe twice along the way – the one thing the “health authorities” have never explained in any adequate detail is how getting and recovering from Covid (aka natural immunity) is not at least as good as an artificial vaccination that is intended to mimic infection. Have not seen a good explanation of why the “health authorities” do not inform on things like vitamin D, Zinc and Vitamin C – they are are all low cost, no risk and help mitigate bad outcomes (they are not miracles cures, just lower risk in a meaningful way). On a true cost benefit basis they make sense for a lot/most people. Not to mention the hit jobs on drugs like IVM (regardless of whether you think they work for Covid or not, the response was ridiculous – disparage a noble prize winning and cheap medicine just because you think it does not work for Covid? Why bother? it is clearly not risky – worst case it is false hope and low cost. Doing this may have done more damage to credibility than they are willing to admit.
Boosted People More Likely Than Unvaccinated to Be Infected: Study
COVID Vaccines
Sep 8 2023
People who received a new COVID-19 vaccine booster were more likely to contract COVID-19 than people who received no COVID-19 vaccine doses, according to a new study of prisons in California.
Researchers analyzed data from 33 state prisons from January to July 2023 to try to assess the effectiveness of the bivalent shots, which were introduced in the fall of 2022.
Among 96,201 inmates with data on COVID-19 testing and vaccination, researchers identified 2,835 cases.
They found that 1,187 of the cases were among people who had received a bivalent vaccine, versus just 568 cases among the unvaccinated.
…
https://www.theepochtimes.com/health/boosted-people-more-likely-than-unvaccinated-to-be-infected-study-5487833
You are just extremely unlucky with your friends. That’s the only conclusion or that you’re spewing BS.
The difference between the old mortgage and the new one is going to push wages up too. The new job has to pay enough more to offset the increase in the house payment plus whatever raise they were dangling as an inducement.
… or they could just have them work remote.
love the look of CRE pricing. gonna wreck some banks and others….. gonna be some nice cap rates in future, so i’m psyched…….on residential homes, people will be forced, perhaps slowly but no doubt we will see sales forced due to death, divorce, relocation, downsizing, upsizing………..and other personal reasons. good analysis, thanks mish.
What will happen to agencies that are contracted to buy homes from major corporations and government employees that are relocated to their new position out of state or country?
In 2013 an agency bought a government employee’s home 20% below what the employee paid. Sold the home 3 years later 20% below what they paid the federal employee for it.
I gather the percentages of losses is going to be much worse due high prices that were paid in the last 3 years and the no demand due to interest rates. Cash buyers were major buyers last 3 years.
What if the lagging indicators keep lagging?