Yield Curve to Scale
The yield curve chart above is easy to read and understand. The curve from 1 year through 7 years is inverted with the long end of the curve.
The curve has been inverted in places for over a year. This is a recession signal and I believe the economy went into recession in May.
The Fed is merrily hiking away and is likely to keep doing so until it breaks something big time. The Fed will hike 75 basis points tomorrow and the market thinks another 75 basis points is coming in November.
If so, it is doubtful the markets will like it much.
Housing Starts Unexpectedly Soar In August as Housing Permits Crash
Earlier today I noted Housing Starts Unexpectedly Soar In August as Housing Permits Crash
The bond market reaction was as if the report was residential construction report was strong. It wasn't. The GDPNow model reacted the way I thought it would.
For discussion, please see GDPNow Forecast for 2022 Q3 Barely Positive Following Housing Starts Report.
This post originated at MishTalk.Com
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