Infantry and tanks are useless, but Russia keeps wasting men.
Sky Full of Killer Robots
The Wall Street Journal reports On Ukraine’s Front Line, a Sky Full of Killer Robots
That’s a free link. The Washington Post and New York Times each offer 10 free links a month. The WSJ is unlimited, but I try not to abuse it.
On the sun-drenched eastern front of this grueling war, Ukrainian drones are doing more and more jobs, from killing Russian troops to evacuating casualties to bringing dinner to foxholes.
Ukraine’s air and ground drones bring the men food, water and ammunition, said Lt. Col. Yehor Derevianko, a battalion commander in the brigade. “We even deliver burgers.”
Kostyantynivka, an industrial city once home to 67,000 people, is one of the main targets of Russia’s summer offensive. Moscow’s invasion forces are inching westward across the fertile Donetsk region, exploiting their greater numbers but losing hundreds of assault troops a day for small gains. Drones have overtaken artillery as the number-one cause of Russian fatalities, according to Ukraine’s military.
Dystopian fantasies
With the experienced 93rd Brigade holding firm in Kostyantynivka, the Russians are trying to outflank it via the countryside. Russian infantry must first cross miles of deadly open farmland. They try on foot or on motorbikes.
Most are picked off before they come near Ukrainian lines by first-person-view drones, known as FPVs—aircraft the size of dinner plates with four rotors, controlled through a live feed on a pilot’s goggles.
The surviving Russians try to regroup, then assault a Ukrainian trench or dugout. “We have to hit them one by one, before they gather,” said Derevianko.
The most recent armored attack here was around New Year’s, when 14 Russian armored vehicles tried to run the gantlet of drones. Only two got close. Then the defending infantry hit them with rocket-propelled grenades.
But Russia’s drones are also tormenting Kostyantynivka. Their fixed-wing Orlan and Zala reconnaissance drones survey the city continually. Russian FPVs connected to long fiber-optic cables, which make them immune to electronic jamming of the signal, hit anything they see, including civilians.
Army vehicles rumble about covered in grills, nets and other welded-on drone shields, looking like dystopian fantasies from a Mad Max movie.
Hiding the Tanks
Thirty miles to the southwest, the city of Pokrovsk is further down the road to destruction. It hasn’t fallen so far, but the damage is extensive. The Russian advance, like slow-moving lava, is consuming every town it touches with drones and heavy glide bombs.
In a drone war, tanks are useful only as mobile artillery pieces, said the company sergeant, who goes by the call sign Puma. Used in an assault, it wouldn’t even get near the fight, he said. “FPVs are just going to kill us.”
Serhiy Ignatukha, the unit’s leader, holds up one kind of answer to the Russians’ fiber-optic drones. It’s an FPV armed with four 12-bore shotgun barrels.
Recently, one such drone had a dogfight with a Russian FPV. Its shotguns missed, so it downed the enemy drone by ramming it and breaking its propellers, said a drone technician known by his call sign Udav.
The unit is also working with Ukrainian drone manufacturers on more sophisticated solutions, including FPV-borne lasers that can cut fiber-optic cables.
FPVs using artificial intelligence could become the next big thing, said Udav. He held up a drone with a tiny AI chipboard. Once a pilot has selected a moving target, the drone can complete the attack autonomously from up to 700 yards away, even if jamming blocks the signal.
Improved versions are coming out every few months. “This one is the sixth generation and it has had no failures,” Udav said.
“Previously, when you saw 15 Russian vehicles, it was scary. Now it’s fun,” he said. “Sadly it’s the same for the enemy’s drone units.”
A bomb maker with the unit used a 3-D printer to make drone-dropped mines. Costing $9 each to make, the mines stick in the ground, spray out several 26-foot-long tripwires with small anchors and wait for Russian infantry.
No More Lions
East of Kostyantynivka, men of the Alcatraz Battalion are fighting Russia’s infantry and trying to survive its drones. The unit, part of the 93rd Brigade, is made up of convicted criminals who have signed up to be assault troops. Honorable service gets a conditional release or pardon. The first missions last year went well, said men in the unit. But drones are exacting a growing toll.
Convicted thief Pavlo Shyptenko has survived four attacks by FPVs. He was rescuing a wounded comrade this spring when a quadcopter dropped a grenade on him. A tree branch broke the grenade’s fall, saving Shyptenko, but coin-sized bits of shrapnel still cut into his back and neck.
Full of adrenaline, he carried the wounded man to a car and only noticed a terrible pain when he sat down to drive, he said. Now he’s telling new recruits what to do if there’s a drone above them.
“Stay still and wait for the grenade drop. Then you have three to five seconds to run away,” he said, proudly wearing an Alcatraz unit T-shirt. If a suicide drone is trying to crash into you, wait and dive out of the way, he said.
It’s Now a War of Drones
Daredevil carries a scar over his right eye from when a Russian shot him in a basement gunfight early in the war. “We came out of that basement. They didn’t.”
It’s a different war today, he said. “The lions from 2022-2023, who were real warriors, no longer exist,” he said. Heavy losses have reduced the quality of soldiers on both sides. “The men now are not capable of the same feats. Now it’s a war of drones.”
The War Background
On February 24, 2022, I discussed The Real Background Story Behind Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine.
What Happened in Ukraine?
The mess today in Ukraine has its roots in the 2014 when democratically elected Ukrainian President Yanukovych was toppled in a US-backed coup.
Q: Why did the US want to get rid of Yanukovych?
A: Because he was against Ukraine joining NATO.
McCain dined with Svoboda Party leader Oleg Tyagnibok. The Svoboda Party is a group of neo-Nazis.
The citizens of Ukraine were used as pawns in yet another US mission that backfired.
Well who cares about Neo-Nazis as long as they want Ukraine in NATO.
And that’s the rest of the story US media will not discuss.
This no way absolves Putin, but US meddling backfires again, and again, and again.
No One Will Win This
Russia will keep some territory but Ukraine will not give in to Putin’s demand to demilitarize.
The war will end only when both sides are tired of the killing.
I do not know when that will be. The longer it lasts, the more lives will be uselessly lost.
Mish 2022 and Again in 2023: “It [a negotiated settlement] will happen after both sides have had enough of destruction and lives lost, likely accelerated by political events in the US.“
I thought this year. Now I am uncertain.
Wow, This site used to be centrist/ now it’ just DTS, Bad bad man… It’s all his fault.
Yesihhh
Thanks to Donald Trump ~ Russia WON!
Who does he work for? Not America!
Soon Russian oil and natural gas will be flowing into Europe again…
Europe will ignore our sanctions because we have no credibility any more given all of Trumps lies and broken treaties.
President Donald T. Pervert!
Official Numbers of the most recent rounds of swaps of corpses
.
UA :::::: RU
1000 ::: 19
1248 ::: 51
1200 :::: 0
1200 :::: 0
1200 :::: 0
1213 ::: 27
: 909 ::: 34
: 909 ::: 41
: 905 ::: 43
.
Doubtful. The war will end when UA runs out of men; it’s a process. The Russian army swells by tens of thousands each month, that of UA shrinks, completely reliant on gang-pressed conscripts found on the street, without training.
The war will end either with capitulation or complete destruction.
My guess is the side dragging recruits off the street loses. But then what kinds of weapons will they get where they can just sit back and blast Russia I dont know so that could come into play imo.
It’s a pro Ukraine Propaganda hit piece. Anyone that actually follows the numbers knows this. Try as they may, they just can’t make numbers work in Ukraines favor, except the false ones.
Wars have been and continue to be a proving ground to show how your country’s weapons are outdated or effective. WW1 was the war of battleships, and tanks started being used to overrun the trenches. WW2 was the war of aircraft carriers that showed battleships were outdated. Same for artillery, bombs, missiles, electronics, and more. The Ukraine War is proof that the age of big, armored vehicles is largely over except for maybe a new generation of super armored, drone-resistant armored vehicles (supposedly the Russians have some and one was not stopped by 60 drones but was knocked out by a mine). Every day, YouTube videos show how easy it is to destroy multi-million dollar tanks with a drone that costs less than a few thousand dollars. Whichever side produces the most drones and/or develops anti-drone technology has a strategic advantage. I read that China has developed a ‘mother drone’ that can release a swarm of drones at the same time. I’ve also read that someone is testing an anti-drone laser system. Being on offense, the Russians need to actively take ground and can’t just sit back and destroy things with their drones. So for whatever the real reason is that we (NATO) don’t like Russia, we get to fight them down to the last Ukrainian.
Ludendorff forces beat Trotsky. The Germans high command didn’t want to take Moscow like Napoleon. Germany and USSR signed Brest Litovsk. From Belarus and Ukraine to Vladivostok was long enough.
The US became Reagan’s Evil Empire….every accusation is a confession…and we are the baddies now. Proxy war against Russia cynically using Uks to do the dying, perpetrator of genocide in Gaza using Zionist proxy to attempt to dominate west Asia, all working up to prepare for the war mongering biggie against China. US is a dying military war mongering empire but stillquite dangerous on the way down.
No one believes the democracy and freedom fries BS any more. I think Trump kinda understood and was looking for a graceful exit but surrounded himself with neocon warpigs and we have the current chaos.
We are so screwed.
“Light of the World”: the people of the book are healing the ME with Bibi.
Who is always the last person to whisper in Trump’s ear before an important decision or appointment? Kushner. And that road leads where?
In that case we can elect Kushner president next time. By the way, who was signing Biden’s papers?
After Putin takes over Kharkov the war will be over. Putin controls the black sea from Mariupol to Kherson for three years.
During my childhood team R counted USSR an enemy.
For the last few decades team R has started counting Russia a friend.
I don’t know how to put words around what I’d like to say,
The key points:
The easy things to want are the end of Putin and a new era of Russian personal freedom but history BC-to-2000AD does not point that way. I hope those 1980s missile engines are rusted out when TS hits TF over there.
It’s interesting… they went from being the abolishionists to supporting discrimination against any non-white, from being outraged by pedophelia to supporting it, from fiscal responsibility to a 4 trillion dollar deficit, and from being the enemy of Putin to being his simps.
The funny thing is they don’t realize any of that happened, even as they actively participate. I guess the stupidity implied by Hanlon’s Razor explains it.
The root was in 2014 when the Regime Change King ousted Yanukovych. He failed to oust Putin, Bibi and the Ayatollah. Obama’s clones are still trying to oust Bibi in court and with daily protests. After George Floyd and summer of love Obama ousted Trump. Trump #2 needs an “Iron Dome” or a “Trophy” from Obama’s ghosts.
Hopefully it’ll work better than Iron Dome. Maybe he can buy some S400’s.
The mess today in Ukraine has its roots in the 2014 when democratically elected Ukrainian President Yanukovych was toppled in a US-backed coup.
====
as usual Mish not knowing Russian /or Ukraine lang, never read a single page of russian history ( i would suggest at least 500 years ) suggests HIS VIEW how it started.
wrong!!!!!!!. sorry pal, you are off at least 80 years!
========
last time it started when Stalin decided to get western Ukraine again into USSR.!
after singing up Molotov – ribbentrop pact! it was before ww2.
you see, after 1917 western Ukraine become part of poland.
and now it become part of ussr again. bad decision by communists.
that could be reason!
===
or reason could be after final defeat of Poland at the end of 18th century, western Ukraine(or eastern Poland) was taken into russian empire!!
problem was Russian Сzars were kind of weak-kind ,so they even allowed teach Polish lang in russian schools in western Ukraine!
so, you can guess what youth was being taught back then!
and on on on!!!!
alx
One wonders how Lenin and Trotsky arrived on the scene and were able to fund the overthrow. Putin hinted at them in his Russian History lesson segment in his interview with Tucker.
So, from an expert, how does this end?
Ukraine did not FREE UP A SINGLE sq km of land Russians took after 2022.
overall Russia controls 20-25% of land, cut off Ukraine access to Azov sea, and basically controls Black sea access by bombing Ukraine ports
====
Russia controls biggest nuclear site. it is worth about $50 bil, and would take about 10*20 years to build.
Russia controls Ukraine skies, not a single civic plane flew in or out Ukraine since start of 2022!
=he fertile Donetsk region, exploiting their greater numbers but losing hundreds of =assault troops a day for small gains
=fertile Donetsk region,
——-
blah blah blah!!!
as usual western media propaganda for very bad educated readers.
=Ukraine wins, stupid Russia loses.=
=====
just to remind you, most of (over 50% ) of USA people dont know second (=foreign) language and-or never traveled outside own country.
and that is richest country in the would and country of immigrants!
==
so some facts
=1
Donetsk region is NOT KNOWN as being fertile !
it is industrial land, lost of coal and metal mining.
it has been this way since 19th century.
=2 dont see much NEW mass graves all over Russia. it is easy pick up by traveling, or from space . on other hand Ukraine is filled w/ new graves, just google
=3 never ever seen in Russia people picked up from streets , in Ukraine on other hand it is done daily, each city. again google .
=4 =ukraine wnining=
Ukraine did not FREE UP A SINGLE sq km of land Russians took after 2022.
overall Russia controls 20-25% of land, cut off Ukraine access to Azov sea, and basically controls Black sea access by bombing Ukraine ports
and on on…
alx
At what point does a country founded by immigrants stop being a nation of immigrants? All creation and evolution stories start at some location where the first one was-made-or-just-happened. Is anyone a native, or is USA about 400 million immigrants?
Just wait until Ukraine finally starts drafting its 18-25 yo men! What have they been waiting for over these past 3 years to do so???
They are accepting foreign volunteers, though, no wait.
They are waiting for them to ‘age into service’. It’s been 3 years now so anyone who was 23 at the start of war is now eligible.
Lowering the age carries a huge risk. You can send out all the draft notices you want to the youth of the nation but if they decide not to come (more and more likely given how so many are killed / wounded) then you look impotent and morale/confidence in the regime will plummet.
They need to leave some Ukrainian men alive or all the women will move to Europe and marry Syrians.
Maybe that’s been part of the plan all along.
When you are in the middle of an existential crisis, you throw the kitchen sink at the problem.
There is something weird going on that Ukraine drafts from the oldest first.
Major theme of the article was that war is for armed, flying robots now, not humans.
Geneva convention specified the largest bullets it was humane to shoot a human with. Will the next version have to specify the smallest? Philosophically what’s the difference between a teeny=tiny bullet and a virus?
You are dreaming ….
Good job on finding a source that seems to be objective. Your “The Real Background Story Behind Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine” unfortunately is sourced from the Russian propaganda. Should you ask Ukrainians, they will tell you a completely different story about the 2014 events.
Mike, a recommendation: you should get thoroughly familiar with BOTH sides’ stories (Russian propaganda AND Ukrainians’ viewpoints) and only then can you start making sense between them because one of them makes sense, the other does not.
If 2014 was “a coup by the US” against the wishes of the Ukrainian people, you would not have the current war ongoing since 2022. Instead, the Ukrainians would have welcomed the Russian army as friends and brothers and would have submitted themselves to Russian overlording over them just like Russia planned it – in 3 days. Instead Ukrainians are fiercely fighting Russians already 3.5 years. So your whole logic about 2014 above DOES NOT MAKE ANY SENSE.
There are always two sides to every story and the truth is in the middle. Doesn’t help that the Russians were promised after the dissolution of the USSR that Nato would not expand eastward. Also not helpful the the AZOV nazi battalion was commiting genocide against ethnic Russians. Ukraine was complicit it WW2 in collaborating with the NAZI’s jewish genocide as well as brutally murdereing many of their eastern European countrymen. Ukaraine ranked as one of the most corrupt countries on earth right behind Russia. You reap what you sow.
“Doesn’t help that the Russians were promised after the dissolution of the USSR that Nato would not expand eastward.”
This is being repeated and repeated as if it was a fact. Can you point to a document??? WHEN did it start being repeated as a “fact”? 2006 or so? WHY then? Perhaps because back then Putin started to make his plans for a new empire and needed a reason?
BTW do you know that back in 1994 Russia, UK and the USA actually signed a pact with Ukraine giving security guarantees in return for giving up its nuclear weapons? Now that pact actually is on paper, a real document. Wonder why Russian propaganda does not want to remember that one but only keeps repeating the fiction about NATO’s supposed “promise”???
There are official documents from the US State Department citing the memos between Sec. of State, James Baker and Mikhail Gorbachev and Eduard Shevardnazde. After this dissolution of the USSR, it is specifically stated by Baker that ‘NATO will not expand 1 inch to the East”. You can look them up online. I think this occurred in 1991, but not sure.
Memos vs treaties
Big difference
Do a little research you lazy dolt…
Declassified documents show security assurances against NATO expansion to Soviet leaders from Baker, Bush, Genscher, Kohl, Gates, Mitterrand, Thatcher, Hurd, Major, and Woerner
https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/russia-programs/2017-12-12/nato-expansion-what-gorbachev-heard-western-leaders-early
If I told you that black is white while you keep insisting that black is black, where in the middle is the truth?
If someone told you that 2+2=36, where in the middle is that truth? What about someone telling you that a man can be a cat, where in the middle is that truth? Men can be cats 50%? 70? 25%?
If you seek the truth, you will find the truth. If you cannot be bothered to research and think for yourself, everything will always be muddy “in the middle” without any facts about the life around you. No colors, no math, no taste, nothing, not even any meaning for the miserly life.
And you have only one side, which is f’ed up bs. Your welcome.
“World War II officially lasted from September 1, 1939, to September 2, 1945.”
“The average age of a Ukrainian soldier is reportedly around 43 years old.”
I can’t believe Mish believes that crazy stuff over the will of an entire people (the ukranians.) just the simple courage and resolve that they fight with undermines the whole idiotic “us backed coup” narrative. This is the will of the ukranians and it’s insulting to make it into some kind of conspiracy theory.
Does this look like a “country” where the “Ukrainian people” can be said to have a unified opinion?
https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQy4Ijq4zCNo3G1l37ZmiNMGP8UumMhBM1T8Q&s
Can more than 2 people ever have a unified opinion? I think that’s why humans invented spectator sports – it’s easier to root for colorful fabric.
I like the idea of trying to understand both perspectives, but how come you called them “Russian propaganda AND Ukrainians’ viewpoints“? The language seems to have taken a side.
Good point! Actually there are at least 2 main Russian perspectives worth considering: 1) official propaganda that you get inside Russia and 2) opinions of Russians living outside Russia. For Ukrainians, the difference will not be the same between inside Ukraine and outside. Wonder why? There’s a reason Russian official viewpoint is called propaganda. Outside Russia people are not jailed for 15 years for going against the official narrative.
I’ve always assumed everybody inside and outside of every home country has opinions that fit their individual interests and experiences. What’s nice about this blog, and lets not forget its the comment section under some other persons thoughts on a war, is that lots of people come with lots of opinions. I think AI would have a hard time deciding what facts here are true – AI should hire a recent 20 y/o Columbia U liberal arts graduate to mark facts as true and false for it.
You are correct. Outside Russia people are only jailed for 2 to 5 years for going against the official narrative, like UK, France and Germany
So, what else is new?
In one of the largest demonstrations against the Ukrainian government since Russia invaded more than three years ago, WSJ reports that more than 2,000 people gathered near the president’s office, shouting “shame” and “veto the law,” after President Zelensky signed a law gutting the country’s anti-corruption agency.
Yes, there is hope that the people are starting to rise up against the autocracy. You will notice, however, that there are no men of fighting age in the protest crowds and for good reason.
Europe is being attacked both from the East and from the South by actors using unconventional warfare. Russia is keeping in the game thanks to China’s and North Korea’s help and it is not unreasonable to expect one day soon to see hundreds of thousands of troops from Asia fighting on Europe’s borders. Yet even with this prospect facing them, there are large parts of the population in Europe that see climate change as the number one problem. That perception is changing but maybe too slowly. Fortunately Europe has been getting a few hard kicks in the butt recently and has started taking their defense seriously.
For drones the key to their future in warfare will be AI and the country that dominates in AI and manufacturing them will win. There is no grey area. It’s a binary choice.
How much help can North Korea offer?
This war is probably a massive economic boon for North Korea the same way the Vietnam War was a bonanza for South Korea. Keep in mind that South Korea was poorer than North Korea until the Vietnamese shattered the will of the Americans and the USA had to hire South Korean mercenaries to fight its ground war in South Vietnam. The Russians aren’t getting North Korean manpower and armaments for free.
In that case, who’s helping who? And who designed/built/sold those NK armaments?
It’s mutually beneficial. Russia gets manpower and armaments while North Korea gets paid. Again, it’s very similar to the arrangement between the USA & South Korea during the Vietnam War, except Russia isn’t relying on North Korean ground troops anywhere near as heavily as the Americans relied on the South Koreans. The USA always starts wars its soldiers can’t finish, so the Americans totally threw in the towel and relied on everyone else to fight its war, whereas the Russians have been a lot tougher up to this point.
The drones & missiles have largely been developed domestically and they’re built in local armaments factories with local workers. A lot of the technology is heavily based on foreign designs thanks to clandestine tech transfers, reverse engineering, and cooperation with other countries like Russia, Iran, China, etc. Israel had also sold a lot of American weapons information to China which has almost certainly been passed on to North Korea. Some American and South Korean drones and other weapons systems have been captured by Iran, Afghanistan, and North Korea as well as in Ukraine and Russia for reverse engineering.
North Korea’s recon drones are modeled after the American MQM-107 Streaker and the RQ-2 Pioneer. Loitering munitions in their parades resemble Iranian Shahed drones. North Korea’s combat UAVs were based on the American MQ-9 Reaper. North Korea’s MLRS systems appear similar to the Russian Tornado-G and the Chinese AR2 systems.
North Korea’s short-range missiles KN-02 and KN-23 are similar to the Russian Iskander and the KN-24 is similar to the American ATACMS.
The weapons trade is mutually beneficial for Russia and North Korea as Russia is extremely well-supplied (unlike Ukraine) while the Russia’s demand for weapons is obviously beneficial for North Korea’s economy. This increases North Korean demand for Russian energy at a time when they’re under sanctions.
I saw a video of a drone killing a lone soldier and it really shook me up how senseless and sad it was.
Grown men dressing up in war costumes killing each other for the benefit of the elite who don’t have to worry about their lives being lost.
It’s always about money (oil, natural gas, etc.) and it’s such a waste of human life.
No, it’s not (only) about money. Putin is the world’s richest man already, now he needs to build his legacy, which he sees as rebuilding the Russian empire. Not just the USSR but the former empire including Finland, Poland, etc.
Check under your bed, I’m sure there is a communist hiding there. He wants to join the one in your head. Jeez you ‘d fit in perfectly in Mcarthy’s America!!
It’s human nature on display. Things haven’t changed since recorded history.
If the future means -both- sides are robots, what is the war?
Good show, keep posting on Ukraine! Look at the fascinating geopolitical and economic implications: BRICS vs NATO, a major economy kicked off SWIFT and thriving–Russia’s GDP growth blasts past stagnant Germany and pathetic Britain despite 30,000 (count ’em) sanctions. Why is Russia (according to NATO’s Rutte) able to 4x outproduce the entire West, USA included, in shells, drones, tanks, missiles?
Prediction: Russia keeps the 4 obalsts (Donesk, Luhansk, Zaporozhye, Kherson) and forces Kiev to demilitarize. Zelensky will set up a goofy government in exile wherever he’s stashed the billions stolen from the US taxpayer.
I have discussed BRICS ad nauseum.
And Trump keeps flip-flopping on Ukraine so it’s news.
But it’s a free country still, [mostly] so believe what you want.
Stick to your neck of the desert in Utah. The oceans are too big for you.
More war fatigue…
A March 2025 pol by CBOS center, just 50% of Poles are in favour of accepting Ukrainian refugees. Two years ago the figure was over 80%
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/
I saw an interview with a Polish guy. His exact words were-“the Ukrainians are worse than the Russians”. And nobody likes the Russians.
Means testing. Who gets to decide whether someone is a Ukrainian refugee?
July 11th in Poland is the annual “National Day of Remembrance of the Victims of the Genocide of the Citizens of the Polish Republic Committed by Ukrainian Nationalists”. I understand they are neighbors and there is a very long history of multiple ethnicities inhabiting this area, but to see Poland swallow it all and become a strong supporter of NATO/Ukraine in the war against Russia has been truly astonishing.
Ukraine a free country? That made my day.
What kind of “free country” puts preteen girls, their own citizens, on government kill lists and publishes their home addresses?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D7eEgb8WHLY
American Gonzalo Lira was on the same kill list and was arrested, tortured, and killed for making YouTube videos where he discussed the war. Churches have been shut down, priests arrested. Non-regime mouthpiece media have been shut down, journalists arrested. Opposition parties have been shut down, politicians arrested or convicted in absentia.
I believe Russia may have no choice but to subjugate all of Ukraine-unless USA/NATO can somehow convince Russia to agree to some form of ceasefire which falls short of Putin not accomplishing all of his often stated objectives. Putin wants peace and a security agreement with Europe that will end this conflict. He does not care about Europe-he is looking east and to BRICS. Europe seems to be cultural and national suicide, especially with their disastrous open borders immigration policy. NATO, having failed in their goals of defeating Russia (and the BRICS) wants a temporary agreement, which all of us, especially Putin, know they have no intention of honoring. Remember the Minsk Accords and Istanbul. Putin knows that another sham agreement will simply allow USA/NATO the opportunity to live to fight another day, regroup, rearm, continue to weaken Russia and BRICS, and that avoiding a compete victory over Ukraine, the Globalists will come back next year, 5 years, maybe 10 years to achieve their goal of subjugating Russia, and likely breaking it up into 5-7 countries so that puppet states will allow them to exploit Russia’s resources. This seems to have been the plan ever since the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1989-1991. They were probably close to doing so under Yeltsin and the reign of terror of the Oligarchs–but then came Putin.
I know the incessant Ukraine/NATO propaganda is irresistible, but the respected sources I follow on X assert that the KIA ratio of Russians to Ukrainians is actually more than 1:10 for the entire war. 1 Russian per 10 Ukrainians! The Russians have superior drone tech. Maybe no one knows for sure, but remember Vietnam? Body counts are invented by the military/media complex to feel good for the anxious fans.
X has as much truth as Truth Social!
I remember how NPR newsreaders used to joyfully recount the 2nd Iraq war US casualty count on my morning commute. The march toward 1000 dead young humans was a great source of satisfaction to their political selves. How does the experience of a bystander change if war becomes a drone battle?
Back when we had a benevolent government, the topic of AI drone killers that are deployed by autonomously eavesdropping government would have been only found in1984 type fictional material.
With a malignant narcissistic pedophile president that has promised to be “Dictator on Day One” in charge of those drones? I think all of us have to think twice about what we say…
OOPS! I have trodden in a bucket!
<
We had a benevolent government? Which one?
One side wants a cease fire. The other side doesn’t. Guess which side is winning?
neither as explained
You didn’t explain anything. You just delivered what WJS&co had publish 😉
The longer there is a war, more land Ukraine will lose. Maybe in the end it will not exist anymore,BCS it will be taken by neighboring countries.
The body exchanges demonstrate that for every Russian KIA there are more than 50 Ukrainians.
That’s partly because Ukraine doesn’t want to acknowledge their dead, lest they be obliged to pay death benefits to the kin. Even so, the Ukrainian:Russian deaths are at least 10:1, though you’ll never read that in WaPo – which is a bunch of CIA horseshit.
Old guys running CIA would have been raised during an era of USA=good, USSR=bad. New CIA recruits will be from a different generation, where USA=budget cuts, USSR=gone. It must create social issues in the office. Do CIA agents go to an office?
No one gets hired at State or the CIA if they don’t stick to the “Russia bad” narrative. Same with CNN, NYT and the Bezos Post. Amazon Web Services not only has a major contract with the CIA, they do cloud storage for multiple federal agencies and earn billions every year doing that. Anyone who thinks WaPo is anything but state-sponsored, intelligence community-curated propaganda is ignorant and naive. Independent thought is prohibited in DC.
Not many of them type running around. What happens when the last oldster retires?
The war will end when the US taxpayer is no longer forced to pay for it. One thought the “peace candidate” Trump understood this when he said he would end the war on day 1. Alas, the CIA has had a conversation with Trump (perhaps with a gun to his head).
There is no reason to believe anything in the Mockingbird media with regard to this war.
Believe the battlefield.
What advances are Russia making? At what expense?
This is a war of attrition not a war of big arrow land grabs. Land advances are a secondary goal and they can take as long as it takes. The goal is to kill the Ukrainian army. Which they are doing. At least a million and a half ukrainian dead. a quarter to a half million russians.
Ukraine will lose. It is simple military math.
The WSJ is a CIA controlled part of the CIA aligned Murdoch “news” organization. In other words pretty much all BS
Supporting Ukraine is akin to murder. The longer it drags on the more Ukrainians die, and some Russians
Do you think the CIA controls WSJ?
Do you think the CIA does not control WSJ’s competitors?
I sorta picture that organization snuggling into comfy office chairs hoping the boss retires soon and retirement benefits stay good.
CIA Director Wm Casey said that anyone of any importance is US media was owned by the CIA. Mockingbird media perfectly describes Murdoch’s mouthpieces.
That could be true but depends on the words “importance” and “media”. Casey would have limited understanding of most social media and the way the market has scurried into niches. eg MSNBC was not established until 2005, 23 years AFTER Casey died and most people count it as part of “legacy media”, i.e. old stuff for retired golfers. While the CIA possibly controls many centralized sources, weird little niche online communities pop up everywhere. Is CIA behind “Gir;’s Gotta Eat?”. I hope not.
Fair points, Kevin. But no one is really allowed to report on the Ukrainian War directly who isn’t controlled by Zelensky/CIA. Fringe media try to report truth, but can’t do a lot from a distance. Zelensky would arrest them if they got close.
And the legacy media–which still commands the center of the field, determining the Overton window and the topic of conversation–is very much Mockingbird media and filter out anything CIA or drug companies don’t want talked about.
I thinks that’s why so few people under 60 years old watch news on tv anymore. True Ukraine gets not much air time, but if the top 5 biggest tv news shows all gave 100 percent to it tomorrow, the rest of the country would have to wait until grandma facebooked it from Florida.
Russia didn’t advance against Napoleon or Hitler for months, but eventually its armies pursued them all the way to Paris and Berlin. They fight wars distantly from the US: they actually win wars, unlike the US for the last 80 years.
Afganistan
Mish, you sound so American. Impatient. You look at it like an American, expecting Russia to do it the American way – a big air campaign, a big fireworks show, a lot of territory seemingly changing hands. Maybe even a “Mission Accomplished” banner. And then, somehow, out of nowhere those gains dissipate, America slinks away and everything returns to the status quo ante. We lost in Vietnam. We lost in Iraq. We spent 20 years, trillions of dollars and thousands of American lives to replace the Taliban with the Taliban. Russia is doing it their way. Slow and steady wins the race. Even Obama knew that Ukraine was existential for Russia and that they had escalation dominance. Russia is building 1,000 drones a day – and growing. America was backing Chechen rebels. They lost.
We didn’t lose in Iraq. We spectacularly won the 1st war in 92. We also won the 2nd one in 2003. We also conquered Afghanistan quite easily too.
The only failures are in regarding Nation building afterwards but that’s something entirely different than military victories.
Incidentally, Russia has also failed in nation building. Exhibit A is the collapse of the Warsaw pact nations (Russia controlled via puppet governments – sound familiar to the US in Iraq/Afghanistan) after the fall of the Berlin wall.
Getting a bunch of Talibs to shave their beards for a while isn’t winning. The point is that Russia doesn’t want the kind of “winning” in Ukraine that would quickly have everything go back to how it had been.
Other than the eastern lands (which are native Russian people) all the rest will go right back to where it was the minute Russia leaves which they will eventually do (even if it’s 20 years later like the US did in Afghanistan)
“Russia, as a distinct country, doesn’t have a single definitive “became a country” date… the modern Russian Federation is largely a result of the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991. ”
I could not find a good place to say “Russia has been around since”, but how long do you think their long game is? Are there old Russians drinking coffee in a Starbutnik’s saying “Yoo just vait until my great great great great great great great great great great great grandson Peter rooles da vol vorld!”. I have not talked to someone with the correct accent for 20 years, sorry, I don’t know how it goes, but you get the idea.
When your blog brings out the obvious Russian posts it’s super creepy Mish, I would be uncomfortable having my name attached to it
“Russian posts”. lol. I see that the NYT/WaPo-indoctrinated folks have made an appearance.
I did thumbs up, because I feel that way too – commenting seems bad for job security.
I also thought about thumbs down, because that’s what makes it “worth it”. Life seems sometimes all about finding where it’s okay to have opinions.
What advances are the Ukrainians making? At what expense? Losing the massive lithium mine at Shevchenko was a big deal since the Ukrainians are fighting and dying for Coporate America.
Nobody is making meaningful advances.
What are the data sets you are using?
Russians are engaged in an economy of force (dosing the forces engaged, losing as few troops as possible) attrition battle. That means, when the other side runs out, you win. Spectacular big arrow campaigns are just a way of reversing your win/loss ratios.
The Ukrainians are engaged in a stand-your-ground at any cost battle, with episodic PR campaigns.
Saw the same thing with Obama,
Maybe a new president doesn’t get to choose.
Maybe there are important criteria they didn’t know about.
Zelensky will attempt to hold out as long as possible, hoping that some incident will draw NATO/USA into a full blown conflict with Russia. That is his only hope.
Ukraine will continue to wage a guerrilla war as long as it takes, just as terrorists do in the ME, the Taliban did in Afghanistan, etc. etc.
Russia will give up and lose in the end, putting their tail between their legs and withdrawing, just as they did in Afghanistan.
Afghanistan isn’t Russia. Eastern Ukraine is Russia. They speak Russian. They belong to the Russian Orthodox Church. A few fleeting 20th century map anomalies don’t change that. Russia will nuke DC before it withdraws from the oblasts it has added. CIA-sponsored guerrillas didn’t win in Chechnya and they won’t in Ukraine.
I think a major theme of the original post was nobody will win.
Depends how you define win, and whether you have to pick from only those two candidates, Russia or Ukraine.
Marc Edward Davis of Dream Connections is the real winner of the war. If his mail order bride agency had a lot of Ukrainian beauties to choose from before the war, imagine how massive his inventory will be now that there are hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian widows, countless girlfriends who lost their boyfriends, women who prefer a man with all four limbs, etc. Of course, that’s largely offset by the number of Ukrainian women that have already permanently moved to Poland, Russia, Western Europe, East Asia, North America, and already found true love there.
The real winner of the Russia-Ukraine war is China.
“but Russia keeps wasting men.”
“Russia will keep some territory but Ukraine will not give in to Putin’s demand to demilitarize.”
OMG. Stick to the economic posts, and leave the Ukraine War reporting to people like Simplicius (on Substack) who know what they are talking about.
Quoting the NYT or WaPo is quoting the CIA and the MI6. That is, disinformation from the side losing this war.
Not surprised as putin has never showed that he places much value on a human life, except his own.
I think you meant to say Zelenskyy.
Putin is a former artillery soldier, whereas Zelensky repeatedly dodged his nation’s mandatory military service. Zelensky wasn’t even brave enough to serve in the armed forces during peacetime, yet he has not qualms about getting his citizens gangpressed off the streets and sent to front line combat.
In following this war, I have come to doubt the effectiveness of Americans owning some 250 million guns in a future war against the Government, if it ever comes to that. Drones are so effective that even the highly technically advance Russian army is having serious problems, although from what I have been following, the Russians have gained a fairly significant advantage in the past year in the drone war with Ukraine. A few years from now military drones will be so effective and deadly that there will be absolutely no way the citizens of this or any country will be able to defend themselves against a technologically advanced government. It’s just a matter of production numbers and time. Reminds me of the Terminator movies, although the technology today is so advanced, in a war against the machines, humanity (or at least government disfavored humanity) will likely have no chance. maybe a future John Connor type leader can figure out a solution. After all, man is still smarter and more creative than AI driven machines–Right?
Sadly not ~ and all they need to kill you is your email address or cellphone number to track you down in your sleep.
… and for the smart device to be on a network that plays ball.
“he highly technically advance Russian army”
List of countries by GDP (nominal)
10 Brazil
11 Russia
12.Spain
No slight to Brazil and Spain but…
Wearing each other down. It won’t be long until drone swarms come. For AI drones to really, really work they need companions who handle different tasks, with different specialty like guarding the payloads, playing decoy, thus they need to be able to autonomously communicate with one another. They can become unstoppable. Really, we just need small swarms that can go in on a rather large payload, be dispersed and go for Putin themselves. I’m really surprised we are not seeing assassin drones as of yet. And, or something like the hunter seekers we saw in early Dune films.
Drones are so cheap that Russia can send 500-1000 in one day. The American arms manufacturers aren’t interested in selling a lot of stuff cheap. They’d rather sell a few things that are so expensive even the U.S. can’t load up on them. Like Patriot missiles at $4 million each. Western for-profit weapons companies will never build at scale compared to Russia and China. They can’t even decide whether to build a factory because a new congress might reverse the plans of a prior congress. By the time they design it, get it permitted, built and staffed ten years will have gone by.
Until the batteries run out.
That was the biggest technical theme hole for the Matrix movies – humans are s%*$y batteries. If the surface world was already a war-torn s*^$* hole, strip mine everything and build the filthiest efficient power plants.
Won’t be long before the things are autonomous to avoid jamming. Fiber optic cable isn’t going to cut it long term.
Imagine a Chinese sub full of them surfacing near a port and releasing thousands of the things to kill whatever they see fit. They could even carry tactical nukes.
Fuel or electricity.
Spot on Mish. Been to Ukraine a number of times and it’s amazing how many Americans don’t get it.
Take “Toria” Nuland and the Fat Bastard Kagan clan with you the next time you head over. Leave them behind.
You went to one of the provinces where Poroshenko said the children would be going to schools and kindergartens, not one of the provinces where Poroshenko boasted that the child citizens of his nation would be having to cower in basements.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RpZusD92rrg
It was so satisfying to see a video of that same child-abusing chump in a bomb shelter a couple of years ago.