Search
All
Economics
Politics

Understanding the Nevada Senate Odds, Will Republicans or Democrats Win?

•

•

38 comments on Understanding the Nevada Senate Odds, Will Republicans or Democrats Win?

•

,

Image from New York Times

I put together some spreadsheets based on this data.

Nevada Senate County-by-County

Image from New York Times, yellow highlights by Mish

What This Boils Down To

  • Nevada will come down to how many net seats Masto can pick up in Carson City, Clark County (Las Vegas), and Douglas County.
  • Masto needs to pick up a net of 22,596 seats 

Synopsis of Counted and Uncounted Nevada Senate Votes

Mish spreadsheet based on New York Times data

Remaining Vote Synopsis 

  • At the current rate in critical counties, Masto will not come close to picking up enough seats. Masto will get a net of 2,641 votes but needs 22,596.
  • The key phrase though is “at the current rate”. 
  • Uncounted early votes are very likely to be for Masto, especially in Clark County.

Let’s assume Masto neutralizes but does not overcome Laxalt’s advantage in Carson City and Douglas County.

Q: What Percentage of Mail-In Votes will Masto need in Clark County?

Masto = 69,060

Laxalt =  46,463

Check 69,060 + 46,463 = 115,523

M – L = 69,060 – 46,463 = 22,597

Masto needs 69,060 out of 115,523 to pick up the requited number of seats. Adding a bit for Douglas and Carson City, Masto need a bit more.

Let’s assume Laxalt pads the area other than Clark County by about 2,000 votes 

Laxalt would need about 71,000 out of 115,523.

The percentage Masto needs out of Clark County is in the range of 59.5 to 61.5 percent.

Q: Is that doable?
A: Yes
Q: Likely?
A: I do not know

Early Voting

  • Democrats: 153,560
  • Republicans: 91,437
  • Non-partisans/third-party: 88,486

Those numbers are according to the Reno Gazette.

The non-partisans will determine this. 

Masto is currently getting about 51 percent. If that early vote is heavily Masto, then she will win.

What If?

As Nevada Goes, So Will Georgia

Any comments?

Addendum

I think New York Times percentage remaining, but not overall vote counts, are stale.

This is how NBC sees Nevada Results

Picking up 22,596 votes out of 90,686 is much more difficult than out of 115,523.

Update Not Looking Good For Laxalt

Both Sides Claiming Math is on Their Side

Laxalt View

I have not looked at the updated math and do not know how many more mail votes will trickle in. 

This post originated at MishTalk.Com

Please Subscribe!

Like these reports? I hope so, and if you do, please Subscribe to MishTalk Email Alerts.

Subscribers get an email alert of each post as they happen. Read the ones you like and you can unsubscribe at any time.

If you have subscribed and do not get email alerts, please check your spam folder.

Mish

Subscribe to MishTalk Email Alerts.

Subscribers get an email alert of each post as they happen. Read the ones you like and you can unsubscribe at any time.

This post originated on MishTalk.Com

Thanks for Tuning In!

Mish

Mike Shedlock

Recommended Articles

Comments to this post are now closed.

38 Comments
Newest
Oldest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
TheCaptain
TheCaptain
3 years ago
WRT H. Walker, it’s sane to call him hypocritical on abortion. But there you go again with TDS adding trump’s name into it again. This does not add to the validity of your argument. It simply shows that you are letting emotions get the better of you. Trump is just a guy who used to be president. I want to see DeSantis win in 2024. I would love to see him + a new young powerful conservative black woman as pres and veep. De Santis and Candace Owens in 2024 would be a GOP dream ticket IMO. Trump can root from the sidelines.
0
0
MarkraD
MarkraD
3 years ago
Reply to  TheCaptain
“This does not add to the validity of your argument.”
Trump’s negative affect on Republican candidates and the party as a whole IS the argument.
Independents are running from him… I sure the hell did, voted “D” solely to keep him from manipulating a GOP majority to overthrow a 2024 defeat.
I’d rather not see another beer belly revolt at the capital, it’s an international embarrassment.
.
0
0
honestcreditguy
honestcreditguy
3 years ago
Nevada and Arizona need new bodies, the embarrassment of voting blunders demands the sheep flockers of the left get removed….
They both go to Cons, as independent it was easy to pick red..
went and filled up, bought some groceries, looked at first page of news on crime, see a war created on coup democrats created in 14 and now ramped up….
easy
0
0
Corvinus
Corvinus
3 years ago
Why is it that early / mail-in voting seems to always be dominated by Dems? Is there any cogent explanation of why this might be so?
0
0
Carl_R
Carl_R
3 years ago
Reply to  Corvinus
The one obvious one is that Trump told his voters not to vote early. It’s also possible that there are other reasons. For example, it’s possible that handicapped voters tend to vote early, and also tend to vote Democrat, but I really don’t know.
0
0
ajc1970
ajc1970
3 years ago
Reply to  Corvinus
What Carl_R said… Trump’s strategic blunder, telling his supporters to wait to vote. Never wait. With large numbers, you’ll lose votes to death, natural disasters like a hurricane or snow storm on election day making it difficult to get to the polls, people getting busy or forgetting, etc
There was one exception to your observation in 2020 and it’s relevant to 2022. Arizona was the only state where the GOP vote increased after election-day counting in 2020… for whatever reason. If that trend holds in 2022, Lake will overtake Hobbs for the gubernatorial race and Masters suddenly gets close (not sure if close enough).
Normal trend applies in Nevada, so opposite results, where it could mean Laxalt losing.
Lake Tweeted this morning that there were 384,000 election-day drop-off ballots that haven’t been processed yet. That represents over 15% of the state’s votes.
0
0
8dots
8dots
3 years ago
The D knocked off Mark Levin : “our democracy at stake on Nov 8” and won. They will knock off Zeldin : “tough on crime” . Hochul will
become a tough bitch. The toughest sob will be CA Newsom, the grand dictator. He might be elected as our next president. In the next 30-40 years the D will rule this land.
0
0
RonJ
RonJ
3 years ago
Reply to  8dots
We are effectively back to the 1930’s. Hence all the talk of a Great Reset, what ever form it manages to take, as time moves forward.
The lockdown stimulus created a number of billionaires, while allegedly some 63% are living from paycheck to paycheck. That sort of thing affects people’s attitudes, as do skyrocketing power and fuel bills. The teeth are gnashing.
0
0
Ron Cataldi
Ron Cataldi
3 years ago
I think we should ask Nate Silver… he tends to be more accurate with this kind of thing.
0
0
KidHorn
KidHorn
3 years ago
Even if R controls the house, controlling the senate is important. The senate confirms a lot of appointments.
GA will be interesting. If you add the votes of the libertarian to Walker, Walker wins. I suspect there may be people who didn’t vote who will vote in the runoff if the election decides control of the senate.
0
0
whirlaway
whirlaway
3 years ago
Reply to  KidHorn
They essentially control the Senate via the DONORcrat members Manchin, Sinema (and you can now add Tester to that list since he is up for re-election in 2024).
There are ALWAYS just enough “rotating villain” DONORcrat Senators to make the Senate right-wing, no matter what the R vs D score is. Heck, even with 60 Senators, all that the DONORcrats could pass in 2010 was a right-wing health insurance scheme!
0
0
ajc1970
ajc1970
3 years ago
Reply to  KidHorn
so many new factors in the runoff
Kemp not up ticket to boost Walker, Abrams not up ticket to drag down Warnock
Balance of the Senate will almost certainly depend on it
Walker/WaPo abortion series was timed to perfectly disrupt a Nov 8 election, not a Dec 6 election
If Biden’s gimmicks and his “house of cards” are set to collapse after elections, well, we’re there, Georgians will have more info on that this election (EIDL repayments start, student loan forgiveness happening or not, gas prices about to spike, etc)
0
0
dguillor
dguillor
3 years ago
Reply to  KidHorn
I went to the Libertarian candidates website and was surprised to see that he talks more like a Democrat than a Republican, including immigration reform because we need immigrants and drug policy reform. Usually Libertarian votes would go to Walker, but this time not so much.
0
0
Carl_R
Carl_R
3 years ago
Reply to  dguillor
Libertarians agree with Democrats on social issues, and agree with Republicans on fiscal issues. I really don’t know why anyone would assume that Libertarians will all break the same way. Some will consider social issues more important, and vote Democrat. Some will consider Fiscal issues to be more important, and vote Republican. Still others will be repulsed by both, and not vote at all.
0
0
Mish
Mish
3 years ago
Of the 35 undeclared House seats 17 are solid Republican and 4 are leaning Republican.
That is way more than enough.
0
0
whirlaway
whirlaway
3 years ago
Reply to  Mish
0
0
Nonplused
Nonplused
3 years ago
Masto is printing the required ballots on a Cannon SuperTank printer as we speak….
0
0
paddy
paddy
3 years ago
it is 10:00 PM the night after election day,
dems ‘finally’ gaining seats faster than gop! 33 house seats are undecided, and 4 senate seats, who are printing ballots!
if they can’t get the decision 3 hours after the polls close they are corrupt and feeding the extremists!
0
0
Zardoz
Zardoz
3 years ago
Reply to  paddy
Toot toot! Kook alert!
0
0
michiganmoon
michiganmoon
3 years ago
I am not 100% sold on the Republicans winning the house.
Lots of razor thin races and lots of ballots working their way in through the postal system, likely majority Democrat.
Based on what I see on RCP, the GOP has 210 seats and is in the lead with 10 seats still uncalled. All of these narrow, some razor thin. With Dems winning mail in ballots, this could go south quick.
0
0
paddy
paddy
3 years ago
Reply to  michiganmoon
audit every ballot not counted on election night!
0
0
lil_neezy
lil_neezy
3 years ago
Reply to  paddy
Yes anything not counted by 11:59P 11/8 should be audited!! I mean, no way dems cheated prior to that time, right guys? And they surely cheated after!!1!
0
0
MarkraD
MarkraD
3 years ago
Wow, new batch of votes in, Masto just picked up over 9K of 13K votes, she’s now gone from a deficit of 2.7% to 2.1%.
There are well over 100K votes left, apparently this isn’t toast just yet.
0
0
Mish
Mish
3 years ago
Reply to  MarkraD
Masto not picking up votes fast enough I do not think.
But tell me what site you are watching.
Need a link
Thanks
0
0
MarkraD
MarkraD
3 years ago
Reply to  Mish
AP seems to be the slowest
0
0
vanderlyn
vanderlyn
3 years ago
no estimate for the “insurance” ballots the NV union bosses have to cast, if they need them. GA is not the same story, and walker is dead meat there without Kemp. the next month will see a billion pesos dropped on his head. already seeing rumours of his old gay lovers coming forward. the senate is a long long term game. fetterman will be in senate for 20 or 30 years. so will warnock. off topic, but i agree with larry summers, the kooks taking over R house don’t play well. if they don’t get their way they will default in coming years and do everything to destroy economy and spook markets etc…………to wreck biden. MTG and jim jordan and scores of those nihilist nuts. buckle up. today’s markets were just a preview. imho. i have “feared” this for months now. i care about politics and it does matter. but one must try and profit off these crazy phucks who control our money supply, the entire 7th fleet, etc…………..
0
0
prumbly
prumbly
3 years ago
I’m sure someone will show up with a few sacks of mail-in ballots just at the right moment. That’s what our ‘democracy’ has become.
0
0
vanderlyn
vanderlyn
3 years ago
Reply to  prumbly
has become? read some proper history of our elections over past few centuries. Robert Caro’s books on LBJ and robert moses will thrill ya…………austin TX was a town with whore houses, saloons, steak houses……..where all the state senators could “enjoy freebies” at the dime of “the interests”. ranchers voting all their workers votes……….much more. boss tweed in nyc.
0
0
MarkraD
MarkraD
3 years ago
With 80% in at a 3% deficit, Masto needs to score 65% of what’s left.
0
0
ajc1970
ajc1970
3 years ago
Walker/Warnock may not impact the balance these next 2 years, but it’s a factor for 2025-2026 and again 2027-2028
There’s gonna be a billion bucks spent on that runoff whether or not it tilts the Senate for 2023-2024, speculating that it may tilt the Senate during the 4 years 2025-2028
Re: Laxalt/CM in Nevada, the local prognosticator (Jon Ralston) thinks it boils down to how many ballots are left to count in Clark County. He put together a spreadsheet similar to yours. His take is if there are fewer than 100,000, she has no shot. 100K+ and she’s in the game. Clark County “estimates” there may be more than 100K.
0
0
vanderlyn
vanderlyn
3 years ago
Reply to  ajc1970
100% correct on GA senate. in deep south the winner will be there for 50 years. i lived in SC when strom thurmond was 100, and brain dead, and wheeled out to gavel in his chairmanship for the bacon
0
0
Ron Cataldi
Ron Cataldi
3 years ago
Reply to  vanderlyn
This will be the 4th election for Warnock in 2 years… I think times have changed since when you lived in SC
0
0
RonJ
RonJ
3 years ago
Reply to  vanderlyn
McCain practically died in his Senate chair. Feinstein from California has been there since 1992. I don’t think it matters what state a politician is from, as far as planning to stay till they die in office.
0
0
Bohm-Bawerk
Bohm-Bawerk
3 years ago
Given how valuable one senate seat has been lately, I have a feeling both parties will fight for that Georgia seat ad nauseam.
In general Trump is the same thing Hilary was to their parties: highly loved by the zealots but distasteful to the independents. The Republicans will continue to feel pain until they figure this out. I can’t say I care too much since the Republican party completed their sell out in 2008.
My other thought about the lack of a red wave is although there are storm clouds brewing in the economic world it hasn’t quite hit home yet to the middle class.
0
0
vanderlyn
vanderlyn
3 years ago
Reply to  Bohm-Bawerk
the middle class in the plague years was trained quite nicely. locked up. trillions of free money from trump and biden……….directly to their accounts. money supply up 120% in 2 years. the middle brows are brain dead and addicted to the teat of the gov. like domesticated farm animals to a farmers wife.
0
0
Naphtali
Naphtali
3 years ago
Reply to  Bohm-Bawerk
The Republicans are at the mercy of one man’s narcissism. They will ultimately realize this and adjust accordingly. They have a much stronger stable of potential candidates than the Democrats if they act to dump the orange one. Trump’s hinted announcement of his 2024 candidacy on the 15th was an excellent motivator for the blues on Tuesday. It is clear that he is a hindrance to any Republican governmental ascendancy.
0
0
Zardoz
Zardoz
3 years ago
Reply to  Naphtali
They’ve chosen the evangelicals for a base, and if it ain’t at least as narcissistic as a tv preacher, they won’t follow it.
0
0
TexasTim65
TexasTim65
3 years ago
Reply to  Bohm-Bawerk
Given Ryan Reynolds hilarious comment about buying the Ottawa Senators hockey team on Jimmy Fallon it would seem it’s not quite as valuable as one might think:
“I am trying to (buy the Senators), it’s very expensive, so I need a
partner with really deep pockets,” Reynolds said. “It’s called a
consortium, when you form a group to buy an entity, and it’s such a
fancy way of saying, ‘I need a sugar mommy or a sugar daddy,’ and if
that doesn’t happen, I’ll buy a U.S. senator, which everyone can
afford.”
0
0

Decorate Your Walls with Mish Fine Art Images

Click each image to view details or purchase in the store.

Stay Informed

Subscribe to MishTalk

You will receive all messages from this feed and they will be delivered by email.