by Mish
In the four recessions between 1970 and 1982 unemployment was a coincident indicator, starting to rise with the recession and pretty much peaking as the economy was just starting to recover. In no instances was unemployment a leading indicator.
The above chart thanks to Bart at NowAndFutures.
Conclusion
Those expecting some sort of huge advance warning in unemployment stats in advance of the next recession are unlikely to find it.
Mike Shedlock / Mish/
