Biggest Rise in Initial Claims Since March
The 137,000 jump was the largest since the 3.56 million surge on March 28.
Initial claims have risen three of the last four weeks. They bottomed at 711,000 on November 7.
Continued Unemployment Claims
Continued claims rose to 5,757,000 from 5,527,000, an increase of 30,000.
That is the first increase since August 29.
Continued claims, like Initial claims, are seasonally adjusted.
Continued claims are understated. People fall off the roles as benefits expire. Millions have now expired benefits.
Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Claims (PEUC)
PEUC claims lag continued claims by a week, They are not seasonally adjusted.
PEUC benefits kick in after people have exhausted regular state benefits.
PEUC claims had risen every week since August, until now. They declined only because people expired their state benefits.
Despite the lags and the seasonal adjustment mix, you can get a better feel for the true state of affairs by adding PEU claims to continued claims.
Due to expiring even adding the two together understates the problem by millions.
PUA Claims
PUA claims cover part-time workers and self-employed. They are not seasonally adjusted.
This program is rife with fraud, double-counting, and reporting errors.
All Continued Claims in 2020
All continued claims is the total of everything above except initial claims.
Since it contains PUA claims this number is also rife with fraud, double-counting, and reporting errors.
Expiring Benefits
The PEUC and PUA programs expire completely on December 26.
Expect Congress to have a package by then, but the details are subject to negotiation.
Democrats and Republicans have been bickering over this since September.
For discussion, please see Desire to Reach a Deal and Doing It are Two Different Things.
More Than 500,000 Restaurants are in Freefall
Note that More Than 500,000 Restaurants are in Freefall
And in California, Gov. Gavin Newsom passed a three-week stay-at-home order (including shutting down outdoor dining) for parts of the state.
We have not yet seen the impact of that measure nor similar measures in other states.
Mish
Compared to what country? The isolated island of Japan? What is your country doing by contrast?
Whoocoodanode?!!!
As I understand it sunlight destroys the virus in one to two minutes, yet people wear masks in the Target parking lot. The Great Outdoors is not the place to get the virus unless someone coughs all over your face. You really can’t get the virus from touching stuff, like your steering wheel, but people wear masks in their cars. Sitting in a plane for two hours with non-smokers can give you the virus because you can’t smell it like a cigarette in row 121. I spent 5 months home schooling a 6 year-old, but Colorado’s Governor is not so stupid now to close schools again, even though he and his partner have Covid-19.
And yet California shuts down outdoor dining and playgrounds. Just silly. Silly, silly, silly…
You can get the virus from touching stuff. Most assuredly you can. Touching little bits of RNA with a protein coat, specifically. Try not to touch those.
I know a lot of teachers and I talk to one very regularly, since she is my kid. My take is that elementary age kids are pretty easy to keep on protocol…..Middle schoolers less so. Studies from the UK identified middle school as a common source of spread.
High schoolers here appear to the the worst group..and it is extracurricular activities that seem to be associated with super-spreader events.
Right now in-school learning is mandated but not a requirement here. I think that’s reasonable from an epidemiological standpoint…..but it makes teacher’s lives hell.
More especially if the teachers are in some at-risk group….like being a diabetic, or old.
I’m glad we don’t have to deal with kids at home….we dodged that bullet by having already aged out. My sympathies are with parents trying to work and keep their kids on track.
What happens going forward will be dictated by the virus, unless we’re lucky. There comes a time if things get bad enough, that there will be political will for more shutdowns. Even in places like Texas, where the governor is dead set against it. I hope we don’t have to come to that. It isn’t what I want.
Since the Lockdowns/Quarantine rules are again being Enforced.
Hi Mish – Wasn’t this expected.
It just has to get worse and worse…….no way around that.