Unleaded Gas Headed to Another Record High, Biden to Address the Nation

Unleaded gas price courtesy of Nasdaq, annotations by Mish.

New Record Pump Price Coming

A record futures price portends a record price at the pump

Diesel is already there. 

AAA Gas Prices 

Gas price chart courtesy of the AAA.

EU Proposes Ban on Russian Oil 

In a speech to the European parliament, on May 5, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen sought solidarity on Russia.

“We now propose a ban on Russian oil. Let’s be clear: it will not be easy. But we simply have to work on it. We will make sure that we phase out Russian oil in an orderly fashion, to maximize pressure on Russia, while minimizing the impact on our own economies.”

CNN noted the Proposed Ban Ran Into Immediate Objections.

On May 5, the EU Proposed Ban on Russian Oil

“The proposal on behalf of Brussels is suggesting that it should be done by the end of next year,” Zoltan Kovacs, spokesperson for Prime Minister Viktor Orban, told CNN’s Eleni Giokos. “The shortest period, we’ve been clear on that, our oil companies have been clear on that, is three to five years.”

Hungary said it couldn’t back the proposal in its current form because it was worried about what it would mean for the country’s energy security. Nearly 60% of its imported oil came from Russia in 2021, according to the International Energy Agency.

“The very essence of decision-making in Europe is consensus,” Kovacs said. “We’ve been telling Brussels and all the European states, that on Hungary’s behalf, it simply cannot be done as they require.”

Slovakia — which got 92% of its oil imports from Russia last year — and the Czech Republic have also sought longer transition periods than those envisaged by the EU plan, Reuters reported.

Sanctions Fail Again

The price of gas jumped on the news. The whole notion of cutting off Russia simply will not work.

Nonetheless, ClimateWire offers this nonsensical headline E.U.’s Russian oil ban could reduce global emissions

So we are looking at the overall shrinking oil production capacity of Russia, which will likely lead to reduced emissions from the Russian oil and gas sector,” said Maria Pastukhova, a senior policy advisor for climate think tank E3G.

Yeah, right. 

Who the hell is funding this idiotic think tank?

Despite the nonsensical headline, the body of article points out the silliness of it all. 

Yesterday’s sanctions proposal also includes a measure that would prohibit insurance firms and E.U.-owned shipping companies from providing services linked to the transport of Russian oil to other destinations, The New York Times reported.

That could lead to more extensive disruptions of international oil flows than the embargo alone, since as much as 95 percent of the world’s tanker fleet is arranged through London-based insurance providers, according to Rystad Energy.

Without secondary sanctions on shipping, a full oil embargo could lead to a rerouting of oil cargoes to more distant markets. And that could lead to more emissions, as tankers burn more fuel on longer transport routes, said Alan Gelder, vice president of refining, chemicals and oil markets at Wood Mackenzie.

De-Globalization: New Supply Chains Are Inefficient and Will Drive Up Inflation

Global map from Nations Online Project, annotations by Mish

By the time Hungary agrees to cut off Russian oil, Russia will have working pipelines to China and perhaps India. 

The same thing is happening with natural gas proposals 

For discussion of energy rerouting, please see De-Globalization: New Supply Chains Are Inefficient and Will Drive Up Inflation.

Lose, Lose, Lose

  • It will take months longer for oil to get where its headed. 
  • The price of oil and natural gas rise
  • China gets new supply chains
  • Rerouting means more emissions
  • Europe’s need for oil does not change one bit

Biden to Address the Nation

In the “Gee, I can hardly wait” category Axios reports Biden targets GOP on inflation as prices skyrocket

President Biden is preparing a major speech Tuesday to address inflation, and will contrast his plans to lower costs for American families with those offered by congressional Republicans, an administration official told Axios.

At the White House on Tuesday, Biden will focus on GOP plans, like those from Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), which Democrats say will raise taxes on some 75 million Americans, and could sunset entitlement programs like Medicare and Medicaid.

I expect another push for Build Back Better and more free money to combat rising prices. 

Of course, it’s free money, sanctions, absurd interest rates, and QE by the Fed all the way through March of 2022 that fueled inflation. 

All the proposals by Biden to date will increase inflation. 

However, it appears Rick Scott announced a plan that will never fly and Biden will attack that plan.

McConnell clashes with Rick Scott over Republican agenda

Politico reports McConnell clashes with Rick Scott over Republican agenda.

While McConnell prefers to keep the heat on Democrats and make the election a referendum on President Joe Biden, some in the party — not just Scott — believe Republicans need a more affirmative agenda.

The schism played out on into Tuesday at a leadership press conference. Scott exited the event abruptly just before McConnell castigated two of his proposals.

“Let me tell you what will not be a part of our agenda: We will not have as part of our agenda a bill that raises taxes on half the American people and sunsets Social Security and Medicare after five years. That will not be part of the Republican Senate majority agenda,” McConnell said.

And McConnell made clear he’s planning to be fully in charge in 2023: “If we’re fortunate enough to have the majority next year, I’ll be the majority leader. I’ll decide, in consultation with my members, what to put on the floor.” He didn’t offer specifics of what his agenda would be beyond topics like inflation, border security, crime and energy.

Campaign Issue

Scott just handed the Democrats a campaign issue on a silver platter. 

Telling a Florida population he will sunset Social Security and Medicare is an enormous political mistake even if those policies are bankrupting the country.

Scott’s term ends in 2025 and I suspect he will not be reelected. Since he is 69 years old, perhaps he plans to retire and just doesn’t care. 

This post originated at MishTalk.Com.

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56 Comments
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JRM
JRM
3 years ago
There is also a pipeline being built from Russia to Pakistan!!!!
josh
josh
3 years ago
Elections have consequences.
prumbly
prumbly
3 years ago
Get out the popcorn! It’s going to be fun watching German industry collapse without any energy or feedstock. All for political posturing.
Meanwhile the US seems determined to push Russia into a nuclear war, for some inexplicable reason.
Has COVID affected people’s brains?
Casual_Observer2020
Casual_Observer2020
3 years ago
Disinflation has begun. Let’s see if they actually make it to the pump.
Doug78
Doug78
3 years ago
A most terrible sickness.
AWC
AWC
3 years ago
It all must be destroyed in order to “Build it Back Better.” And considering it all runs on gas and oil, both are “target one” to achieve the new “Utopian” ESG government corporate partnership.
Elections? The ends justifying the means, election outcomes can now be manipulated by political/media wizards, kinda like the monetary wizards tweak things there at the Treasury, the Fed and Wall Street.
Play along if y’all like, just understand there’s a tithe that must be paid, right off the top, to “The Big Guys.”
Christoball
Christoball
3 years ago
I wonder if Marie-Antoinette actually said “Let them eat Crepes”
People might start driving less and eating more crepes. Why make an extra trip when you could buy a steak for the same price.
AWC
AWC
3 years ago
Reply to  Christoball
It likely takes more “calories” of oil to create that steak, and place it on your plate, than the food calories contained in the steak,,,,but yeah, the world population is going to go on an energy diet, the likes of which will shock their socks off.
Christoball
Christoball
3 years ago
Reply to  AWC
Gasoline has 120,000 btu’s. There are 252 colories per British Thermal unit. An 8 ounce steak has approximately 500 British Thermal Units. So a gallon of gasoline has the caloric equivalent of 120 pounds of steak. It is not a bad thing that what you say is true. At least it is more efficient than cracking open and eating a bag of sunflower seeds.
Dutoit
Dutoit
3 years ago
Reply to  Christoball
No, “brioche”, not “Crepes”
RonJ
RonJ
3 years ago
“Telling a Florida population he will sunset Social Security and Medicare
is an enormous political mistake even if those policies are bankrupting
the country.”
Thus nothing will get fixed, except by the force of math. Both politicians and the public are afraid to deal with reality.
Remdesivir and ventilators helped alleviate some of the pressure, though.
Doug78
Doug78
3 years ago
The Russian Central Bank expects the economy to shrink by over 8% and for inflation to accelerate to 23% this year so they see the sanctions as having a big effect. Last year before the war they expected growth of over 3%. For a comparison the Great Recession of 2007-2008 saw US GDP drop by 4.3%. The Russian Central Bank expects double that at least. The RCB’s estimates could be on the low end. Some are predicting an 11% drop. But why believe me. This is the official projection from Russia’s central bank from April 29th where they specifically talk about the sanctions hitting the Russian economy hard this year.
Jackula
Jackula
3 years ago
Reply to  Doug78
I don’t know if the numbers in the west are gonna be a whole lot better
Doug78
Doug78
3 years ago
Reply to  Jackula
They probably won’t be pretty but nowhere near Russia’s. Even with a complete cut-off of Russian gas Germany projects that it would throw Germany into a recession that lowers GDP by 1.5% tops. The ECB is more worried about inflation than a general recession since the rebound from covid is still causing the economy to run hot. Oil prices are still under its highs in 2007 if you measure in constant dollars. Then oil topped out at $146 in todays dollars.
prumbly
prumbly
3 years ago
Reply to  Doug78
Yeah, a complete shutdown of German industry would only lower German GDP 1.5% tops….
Face it – unless the EU gets real about their complete reliance on Russian energy they’re about to enter a world of hurt. It will take them 5-10 years to develop alternative supplies of energy, if they even can. They are basically finished unless they back off their idiotic policies. I’ve never seen politicians declare war on their own countries before.
Doug78
Doug78
3 years ago
Reply to  prumbly
Hardly a complete shutdown. Russia supplies 30% of Germany’s gas which means 70% come from elsewhere. For oil Russia now provides only 15% which means that 85% come from elsewhere too and Both oil and gas imports origins are being diversified outside of Russia. There would be a slowdown and not a shutdown. That misconception by Russian decision-makers certainly led to their disastrous decision to invade Ukraine. They thought they had much more leverage than they actually had. They already have alternate suppliers set up and are now increasing their ability to import using LNG terminals. Germany expects to have two floating and one fixed built within a year and which would replace Russian piped gas almost completely. It is not 5 to 10 years to diversify sources but more like one and a half years.
prumbly
prumbly
3 years ago
Reply to  Doug78
You have to face it that Putin has thoroughly out-maneuvered the EU and the US once again. I don’t like the guy but he is in a different league to our leaders. Russia’s currency has already fully recovered from its drop when the war started, and Russia is raking in cash from energy sales at very high prices. They’re going to be just fine, even with 20% of the world sanctioning them (yes, it’s only 20%). It’s a country that has pretty much everything they need domestically so trade sanctions are ineffective. We need trade with them more than they need us.
The war with Ukraine is pretty much over. Russia has largely achieved its goals and will consolidate its control over Dombass. New borders in Eatern Ukraine that now put the Russian people of Eastern Ukraine in Russia, where they apparently want to be. No doubt Ukraine will keep trying to regain territory with their shiny new US weaponry and in return they will get pounded by the Russians. That may go on a long time and a lot of people will die unnecessarily, but the main event is essentially over.
Reptilicus
Reptilicus
3 years ago

Buying products made with Russian energy in countries such as China defeats the purpose of the ban. Until the EU and other countries supporting action against Russia close this loophole, they’re just blowing smoke for the sake of political theater.

Zardoz
Zardoz
3 years ago
Reply to  Reptilicus
It takes a hunk out. Doesn’t need to be perfect to be effective… time will tell if it is or not.
PapaDave
PapaDave
3 years ago
Reply to  Reptilicus
The biggest effect of sanctions will be on Russian production over time. The Russians have been relying on US and European companies for their Exploration and Production prowess. That is now lost to them and they don’t have the ability to continue at scale without that expertise. They are also being starved of the necessary equipment and repair parts that are needed on a continuous basis to keep production up. Add it all up and Russian production is going to falter over the next few years.
Its not only about refusing to buy Russian oil.
prumbly
prumbly
3 years ago
Reply to  PapaDave
50% of Russia’s drilling equipment is sourced from….. Russia. 30% from China. I don’t think they will have any lasting problems at all.
Christoball
Christoball
3 years ago
Reply to  PapaDave
If they can put a dog in space they can find a way to get oil out of the ground. They have had many Sputnik Moments.
Eighthman
Eighthman
3 years ago
Russia is saying that their oil production has bounced back from last month.
Taiwan news is reporting that the US State Dept. has dropped official language saying that they and China are one nation and that the US opposes independence. So, war in the next couple years?
Republicans want to cancel Social Security? Both parties will sacrifice the American people to finance more war. I don’t see them talking about cutting defense. Without hyperbole, the US is plunging into madness.
Zardoz
Zardoz
3 years ago
Reply to  Eighthman

We are largely the descendants of people that were too crazy to be tolerated in Europe, so this isn’t surprising.I bet there is a gene for kookiness that we share.

Naphtali
Naphtali
3 years ago
Reply to  Zardoz
Interesting hypothesis. Perhaps you’ve successfully identified the long-term village idiot effect.
PapaDave
PapaDave
3 years ago
Reply to  Eighthman
killben
killben
3 years ago
The EU Parliament members probably do not know English. They should look up the below idiom.
cut off one’s nose to spite one’s face..
Jokers. Luckily for EU they have Hungary, Czech, Slovakia who seem to know what the above idiom means and refuse to be a part of such silliness.
TexasTim65
TexasTim65
3 years ago
The best thing the Republicans can do is say nothing until midterms and just let the economy speak for itself. That alone will get them back in control of both houses in November.
Of course there is really nothing substantial to be done or Democrats would be doing it (drilling and keystone pipeline help marginally at home but they aren’t the answer world wide). So that means after retaking both houses it will be the Republicans on the hook for what happens in the next 2 years. And on it goes.
KidHorn
KidHorn
3 years ago
Reply to  TexasTim65
They can blame Biden. He’ll veto whatever they pass and they won’t control enough to override a veto.
Zardoz
Zardoz
3 years ago
Reply to  TexasTim65
The abortion thing is gonna clobber them, and they’ll be bleating about voter fraud even louder.
It’ll be another couple years of the democrats doing nothing useful.
KidHorn
KidHorn
3 years ago
Reply to  Zardoz
Why? The anti-abortion crowd is just as big as pro abortion and they’re zealous too.
Zardoz
Zardoz
3 years ago
Reply to  KidHorn

Abortion will bring I the young people that never bother to vote, just like trump did.

I’m not surprised the republicans are freaking out about the draft leaking. It was meant to be dropped after the election. Such are the wages of secret machinations and plots…
RonJ
RonJ
3 years ago
Reply to  Zardoz
June is before the election.
TexasTim65
TexasTim65
3 years ago
Reply to  Zardoz
I’ll be curious to see if there is higher voter turnout than normal and whether voters say they are voting specifically for abortion related reasons. My guess is that it doesn’t matter much at all only because places that were solidly Blue are going to remain that way and vice versa with Red areas.
While I am personally pro-choice, I applaud the supreme court decision to put it back in the hands of individual states where it belongs (the less the Federal government has control over the better).
On the other hand, raging inflation and high gas affects ALL voters…
Karlmarx
Karlmarx
3 years ago
Mish – i think your numbers may be low. Diesel is approaching $7 in Pennsylvania. Then again, PA has the highest diesel taxes in the country, but its almost as high in NJ and NY. When do trucking companies decide to just stop moving cargo?
TexasTim65
TexasTim65
3 years ago
Reply to  Karlmarx
The will always keep moving if someone pays. They will simply increase prices and see who pays. Lower value items or items with tiny margins will stop shipping first.
Karlmarx
Karlmarx
3 years ago
Reply to  TexasTim65
True. Bye bye free shipping on the $3.00 thingamajig from Amazon prime
AWC
AWC
3 years ago
Reply to  Karlmarx
Shipping was never free to begin with. It was just added to the price.
Zardoz
Zardoz
3 years ago
Reply to  AWC
They might just do that. Making people consider shipping costs adds friction to purchasing.
KidHorn
KidHorn
3 years ago
Reply to  Karlmarx
I would guess many have contracts signed months or years ago they have to abide by.
Mish
Mish
3 years ago
Reply to  Karlmarx
Prices vary state to state – the AAA prices always seem low in high states
Zardoz
Zardoz
3 years ago

If you can’t afford the gas, don’t make that trip. A simple, market based solution.

TexasTim65
TexasTim65
3 years ago
Reply to  Zardoz
This is obviously what is going to happen on an increasing level as gas rises.
It will lead to increased social unrest among the poor as they can no longer afford to drive any kind of distance to their lower paying jobs. That will lead to larger unemployment as they have to quit or are fired because they can’t afford to get to the job (the alternative is increased pay which makes whatever business they are in less competitive). In other words its a vicious cycle driven by US consumers owning very large fuel inefficient vehicles and living long distances from jobs (bedroom communities) or to take little Johnny to school/sports etc.
No one will be a winner from this because ultimately the costs will be shifted to the middle class or what’s left of them.
Karlmarx
Karlmarx
3 years ago
Reply to  TexasTim65
This is one reason why there are so many jobs chasing fewer and fewer people. Since housing costs have risen dramatically in areas with high job creation, workers are being forced to live further and further away from jobs. Service jobs paying even $20 an hour become unattractive when it costs $20 to drive to and from work.
Karlmarx
Karlmarx
3 years ago
Reply to  Karlmarx
oh yeah – also these same wealthy communities where the jobs are and the working class are not pretty much ensure that public transit is poor. Think places like Vail or Park City or Naples
TexasTim65
TexasTim65
3 years ago
Reply to  Karlmarx
I hate to say it but public transit is mostly a waste of time. It works in very few places (ie densely populated areas like the east coast or around LA, San Fran etc) and even there is always a money loser (need to be propped up by taxes).
TexasTim65
TexasTim65
3 years ago
Reply to  Karlmarx
Correct. You can see this playing out in Florida which is a service based economy. I know people who drive an hour each way (60+ miles) to work because they could afford to buy a house or Condo there and not here in the West Palm area. I find it crazy they are driving to a $15 job from that distance and soon they aren’t going to be able to do that.
At that point many stores/restaurants in my area and to the south are going to be really hurting for workers.
Karlmarx
Karlmarx
3 years ago
Reply to  TexasTim65
Agreed – same thing here on the West coast of FLA. I dont think any fast food places are open inside anymore. Cant hire enough people
Zardoz
Zardoz
3 years ago
Reply to  Karlmarx
Are fast food places a net benefit to society? Might end up being cheaper than the aggregate medical costs of fast food to just pay those people fast food wages to stay home.
They can join the existing population of people for which there is no use.
If people really want that junk, they’ll pay more for it, and business will continue.
TexasTim65
TexasTim65
3 years ago
Reply to  Zardoz
What’s really happening here around me is that tiny mom and pop places are thriving because they aren’t big corporations and thus not beholden to paying $15 hr wages. Lots of food trucks and taco stands and tiny take out places stepping up to fill in the void that the fast food places are increasingly noncompetitive in.
Zardoz
Zardoz
3 years ago
Reply to  TexasTim65
Might end up working out ok, if remote workers move out of those areas so people that need to be at their jobs can live nearby… but it’s gonna take a while. If we were the kind of people that was inclined to help each other out, the transition would be a lot easier. We’re not though.
In any case, oil is finite. We have to cross this bridge in the not too distant future anyway.
KidHorn
KidHorn
3 years ago
Reply to  Zardoz
If you can’t afford the food, don’t eat.
As if people always have a choice.
Zardoz
Zardoz
3 years ago
Reply to  KidHorn

Sounds like you’re talking about slavery… work or die. You gone Marxist on us?

TexasTim65
TexasTim65
3 years ago
Reply to  KidHorn
It doesn’t work like that. No one starves willingly.
So they either shoplift or simply break into homes to steal (if they don’t get free welfare cash). There aren’t facilities to jail them all or personnel to keep them locked up (plus it’s cheaper if they steal vs spending 50-100K to jail them anyway). Eventually there is a violent confrontation in which someone is seriously hurt or dies.
TheCaptain
TheCaptain
3 years ago
Reply to  KidHorn
Or better still, if they cannot afford bread, let them eat cake.
KidHorn
KidHorn
3 years ago
Republican leadership is terrible to non existent. McConnel and Graham seem very weak to me. They talk tough, but then cave. Hopefully some of the younger party members can take over.

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