Mideast tensions are on the rise again.
CENTCOM confirmed overnight clashes with Iranian forces near the Strait of Hormuz, describing U.S. operations as defensive responses to unprovoked Iranian attacks. The statement provided limited details on the sequence of events or casualties.
Iranian sources offer a different – and more detailed – account of what happened. According to that account, the exchange unfolded in several rounds over roughly 24 hours.
It reportedly began when U.S. forces attacked two IRGC naval boats, killing four Iranian military personnel. Iran responded with anti-ship missiles targeting U.S. vessels. Iranian air defense systems then shot down at least one – some reports say three – U.S. drones operating in the area.
The U.S. subsequently struck Iranian anti-ship missile launch sites and air defense systems. Iran responded again, firing multiple anti-ship missiles at U.S. vessels in the Arabian Sea.
Independent verification of these claims – including the casualty figures and the extent of damage on both sides – remains limited. The competing narratives follow the familiar pattern in which each side frames its actions as a response to the other’s aggression.
The more significant point is that the exchange has now moved through multiple rounds of attack and counter-attack within a single 24-hour period. That pattern is harder to contain than a single incident. It also raises the question of how this cycle interacts with the indirect negotiations currently underway…
CENTCOM Statement
“U.S. Central Command continues to defend our forces while using restraint during the ongoing ceasefire,” said Col. Tim Hawkins, spokesman for the command.
Hello Robin Brooks
Nuclear Dust
Top NYT Headlines
No Winning Options
Better Things to Do
Please Don’t Hang Up
In case you missed it, please note As Talks Bog Down, Trump Cites Great Progress that Iran Denies
Talks hang on the same issues, nuclear stockpiles, sanctions, and mistrust.
No Winning Options
As I have commented for months, Trump has no winning options. Iran can wait Trump out.
In the initial week of the war, I made an assessment that Iran’s overriding goal was to inflict as much pain on Trump and the US as it could.
That the US could inflict more military pain on Iran was never in doubt. But winning (if it is possible at all) would still require boots on the ground.
Iran knows Trump does not have that resolve.
Notably, the longer this has gone on, the more demands Iran has made. Trump had a deal on the table from Iran that did involve giving up uranium. Trump turned that down.
Trump demanded surrender.
Now it’s Trump who is fittingly on the verge of surrender.
For discussion, please consider Trump Announces an Iran Deal that Appears to Be a Complete Capitulation
Here we go again, another deal announcement and another denial by Iran. But …
My follow-up was Trump Waves the White Flag of Surrender to Iran. What Can Go Wrong?
The leaked terms of the deal amount to a Trump surrender. Netanyahu is unhappy.
Today we see more warmonger interference by Senators Ted Cruz, Lindsey Graham, and Senator Roger Wicker.
Amusingly, Wicker warned that the emerging deal “would not be worth the paper it is written on”.
That is exactly how Iran feels about any deal with the world’s biggest liar, Trump. Iran would be stupid to give up its enriched uranium, so it won’t.
Tomorrow is Taco Tuesday.
Doesn’t he know it’s 4-day week?
Couldn’t wait until Wednesday so we can get out inside trading set up?
Given the current news situation, oil markets and treasury yields don’t make much sense. Heck Japan market reaching all time highs. Whole thing is fishy as world runs out of oil.
Could time to buy back calls though if low oil holds.
The market sees right through this. December oil futures are trading at ~$85/bbl.
Well things are heating up, been monitoring the pizza index for past couple of hours.
https://www.pizzint.watch/
Gotta be ready for market open tomorrow, could be some good profitgasms this week. July Brent up $2 in past couple of hours.
And, tonight, Netanyahu ordered the Israeli military to intensify the attacks in Lebanon
Truly, “peace in our time”
Interesting that Iran is now targeting US assets only and no longer targeting GCC assets
If Iran sent 8000 cheap “dummy” drones at ships every day, the USA would quickly run out of ammunition. China makes drones that have flight performance like a viable threat for less than $500 a pop. The things only have to fly about 20 miles at high speed and “look real”. They don’t have to be able to fly back. This is a losing proposition for the USA. Trump is a moron.
The US has laser cannons.
I don’t believe they have any deployed, still deep in testing
Former Naval Aviator here. You have no idea what you are talking about.
They’re on the other side of the planet! Defensive my ass. I guess Trump is going to see how much violence he can do to placate the Zionists without pushing Iran to light up the surrounding countries.