This Conference Board measure mirrors the University of Michigan sentiment reading.
Steep Confidence Decline
The Conference Board reports US Consumer Confidence Fell Sharply in November
- The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® declined by 6.8 points in November to 88.7 (1985=100) from 95.5 in October.
- The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—fell by 4.3 points to 126.9.
- The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—fell by 8.6 points to 63.2.
- The Expectations Index has tracked below 80 for ten consecutive months, the threshold under which the gauge signals recession ahead.
- Confidence fell among consumers of all political stripes, with the sharpest retreat among independent voters.
Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist Comments
“Consumer confidence tumbled in November to its lowest level since April after moving sideways for several months,” said Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board. “All five components of the overall index flagged or remained weak. The Present Situation Index dipped as consumers were less sanguine about current business and labor market conditions. The labor market differential—the share of consumers who say jobs are ‘plentiful’ minus the share saying ‘hard to get’—dipped again in November after a brief respite in October from its year-to-date decline. All three components of the Expectations Index deteriorated in November. Consumers were notably more pessimistic about business conditions six months from now. Mid-2026 expectations for labor market conditions remained decidedly negative, and expectations for increased household incomes shrunk dramatically, after six months of strongly positive readings.”
“Consumers’ write-in responses pertaining to factors affecting the economy continued to be led by references to prices and inflation, tariffs and trade, and politics, with increased mentions of the federal government shutdown. Mentions of the labor market eased somewhat but still stood out among all other frequent themes not already cited. The overall tone from November write-ins was slightly more negative than in October.”
Expectations Six Months Hence
- 15.9% of consumers expected business conditions to improve, down from 18.9% in October.
- 27.7% expected business conditions to worsen, up from 22.2%.
Trump Doubles Down
On November 9 NBC reported Trump doubles down on the economy despite a strong rebuke from voters
“We had the greatest economy in the history of our country,” Trump said of his first term in an interview with Norah O’Donnell for CBS’ “60 Minutes” a week ago. “But my second term is blowing it away.”
Two days later, voters blew away Republican candidates up and down the ballot in Virginia and New Jersey, results that reinforced NBC News polling showing that the vast majority of voters — about two-thirds — think the president hasn’t lived up to his promises to curb inflation and improve the economy. The common watchword for Democratic candidates who won on Tuesday — both progressives and centrists — was “affordability.”
“The reason I don’t want to talk about affordability is because everybody knows that it’s far less expensive under Trump than it was under ‘Sleepy Joe Biden,’ and the prices are way down,” he said of his predecessor in remarks to reporters last week.
Trump Sounds Like Biden
Trump says he does not want to talk about affordability because it’s great.
Excuse me, but if affordability was great, Trump would not shut up about it.
It’s pathetic, but Trump now sounds like Joe Biden.
Consumer Sentiment Drops Again, Current Conditions Hit New Record Low
The Conference Board survey is not to be confused with the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.
Independently, they say the same thing.
On November 10, I noted Consumer Sentiment Drops Again, Current Conditions Hit New Record Low
Current conditions did hit a new all-time record low of 52.3 vs 53.8 during the covid pandemic.
Expectations are now 49.0 vs the pandemic low of 47.3.
In response to the University of Michigan survey, I had this exchange with a reader.
Tom: “Still quoting the forces of evil as if they were reliable sources of information rather than Intel Blob propaganda, Bloomberg (Evil) NBC News (Evil)”
Mish: OK Tom
1: What conspiratorial BS source do you want me to quote?
2: What exactly did Bloomberg say you disagree with?OK have at it. Those with TDS and TWS attack sources rather than make objective comments.
Today, the Conference Board (paid subscription) echoes the University of Michigan survey, Bloomberg reports, NBC reports, and numerous polls including the latest Fox News poll.
But all of those surveys, reports, and polls are wrong to those proudly parroting the TWS view.
“We had the greatest economy in the history of our country,” Trump said of his first term in an interview with Norah O’Donnell for CBS’ “60 Minutes” a week ago. “But my second term is blowing it away.”
I don’t think so Mr. President. In good economies people eat well but people are not eating well, and your policies are terrible for our farmers, so they need a subsidy to survive. Maybe saying so does not make it so. Maybe ignoring problems does not make them go away. Your meddling in the detail of the economy is creating major distortions that could begin restoration if you backed off.
Senate Republican: ‘We can’t afford’ $2,000 tariff checksDAMN!!
https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/5620244-ron-johnson-tariff-checks/
Nothing to see here. The consumer confidence number was down because of the government shutdown. That is over.
Have you tried talking to people?
I agree that the “ShutDown” played a massive role in “Consumer Confidence Index” It also caused havoc in
“The Present Situation Index” as well as havoc in “The Expectations Index”
Basically the “Democrat Shutdown” who got rightfully blamed by the masses, caused “Temporary Havoc” within “The Country” Good Job… Not!!
There are 9 funding bills that need to be passed by the end of January. Or we get to do the shutdown dance all over again.
Contractors that had two year backlogs last year are now calling to see if I have any need for their services. Many major mid and high end home projects have been cancelled or completed. A nice home that would have been snapped up in a couple of days this summer has remained on the market for six weeks and just reduced the price by 50k today (we’ll see if there are any takers).
I have shifted into the make-work mode to support the local building community and all of the contractors and subs are getting nervous. One reduced his skilled labor rate from $100 per hour to $65 to show thanks for me starting something just when he needed it.
Anyone that does not see the slowdown has to be willfully blind. ICE has not raided our local migrants and they are ultra hungry for work. A contractor told me that 34 of them were at the local pick-up point this morning and last summer there were usually only a dozen or so. He is not using any migrants and focusing on keeping his best guys secure through the downturn (I think this is influenced by the farm crops fully harvested and those guys are now cut loose).
I’m watching for opportunities to grow exponentially over the next two years.
Thanks for the telling anecdotes.
I know, a survey of one. Not remotely statistically valid!
Just to be sure: I meant my comment sincerely. Indeed, that’s more than a “survey of one”. You’re aggregating.
Locally, (East Tennessee) there are lots of job ads for tow truck drivers. The repo business is booming.
According to the graph, we’re just a skooch above Dec 2007, when the GR got rolling. I know we’ve got problems like massive debt this time around, but two major differences are no housing crisis & AI spending out the wazoo. Well, as a bonus, we’ve solidified the “Don’t bet against the Fed” economic policy.
The housing crisis is just getting started. More properties have delisted, and we will see if there are asking price decreases after the first of the year.
New builds are giving away the farm and dropping their asking prices.
AI spending is done with debt. When do they max out the credit cards?
They seem to be “Vaporware Loans” for vaporware products…
All to suck investors in for the grandest fleecing of our time. When the AI bubble bursts?
Sure, sure
Prices dropping in an orderly manner isn’t the same as widespread foreclosures & Short selling.
Again, this will be very different than suffering through a GR 2.0 with the most important difference being smaller home price declines.
The coping is at the point where the best TWS can do is tell “well it works for me! I don’t need no stinkin poll!” Keeping in mind that half of Trump’s voters are getting kicked off of snap of course.
Your observation reminds me of that WSJ “poll” about optimism/pessimism. Maybe it’s to launch a new gaslighting meme: “If you’re complaining, it’s because you’re a pessimist and not because there is anything wrong.”
Most of oligarchy politics is about managing perceptions while shoveling cash to friends.
“We had the greatest economy in the history of our country,” Trump said of his first term in an interview with Norah O’Donnell for CBS’ “60 Minutes” a week ago. “But my second term is blowing it away.”
Hahahaha!
And the sad part is that Trump’s cult will believe him.
Trump was the first President since Hoover to leave office with fewer people working than when he entered office. His economy was a disaster. He continued the streak of recessions by every Republican President since 1920. And I expect him to do so again in his second term.
Incidentally, I see that the government deficit for October hit a new record high of $284 billion. Funny, since Trump says his tariffs will eliminate the deficit, pay off the debt, eliminate income taxes, and provide $2000 checks to all!
Lol! What a sh*t show!
Any thought that this term would be any different pretty much defines insanity…
“Insanity is doing the same thing and expecting the results to be different”.
> Trump…first Pres…since Hoover to leave…with fewer people working than when he entered office.
I hate Trump. But the COVID employment recovery waited until his “beautiful” jab was rolled out in 2021. You can’t hold that one item against him. Or…
If you believe the regime overreacted to the disease (with mortality nowhere near what was advertised), then his policy of lockdowns indeed destroyed employment unnecessarily…
I withdraw my amicus curiae.
I do not care about Trump’s covid response. I was merely responding to Trump’s blatant lie.
“We had the greatest economy in the history of our country,” Trump said of his first term in an interview with Norah O’Donnell for CBS’ “60 Minutes” a week ago. “But my second term is blowing it away.”
The data says otherwise.
Oh, I hear you…no argument on your overall point and most of whatever you say about trump.
I often try to consider multiple POV. A Trump defender will remind you of COVID, like I did. But, if they — like many R’s (but also some indie lefties like me) — believe it was a “plandemic” featuring unnecessary responses, then the Trump defender *should* decline to defend Trump’s 1st term job record. The decline in jobs wasn’t an unfortunate consequence of a disease but of Trump’s leadership in the scam on behalf of Big Pharma and the newly emerged bio-“security” industry.
Did you really expect something different? After electing a madman what should have been expected, two chickens in every pot or eating roadkill?
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2025/11/executive-order-provides-for-bailout-of-overextended-ai-companies.html
Four plus years of relentless inflation. Massive inflation in things consumers MUST buy. Even the privileged appreciated-value homeowners aren’t so happy with property taxes and insurance skyrocketing and, if they want to move, they would be hit with capital gains taxes, replace it with a higher priced home, have to accept a higher rate mortgage or any combination. Job growth slowing. Social media constantly stirring up angst for political divisiveness/gain. Why would the polls surprise anyone.
Sounds like the past ~10 years and counting.
Trumpflation economics.
Go to a pawn shop. That’ll tell you more about the economy than any poll.
Do you have any recent anecdotes to share?
(I’m nowhere near one and thus must ask you.)
Yes…a local pawn shop here in the Orlando area has a computer repair tech within the store. I needed to drop off a computer for repair yesterday. I talked to the owner. He said business is good (for his store). Many people bringing in jewelry, gold & silver, plus coins, tools, etc to raise cash. I think there is an inverse relationship between pawn shop activity versus the economy in general. If pawn shop transactions are up, the economy must be headed down. People need cash to pay bills. At least that’s my take.
A lot of people are probably selling old jewelry they don’t need or want along with coins because of the record breaking prices for gold. I remember the same thing happening in 1980 at the peak of gold and silver prices. People sold off their silverware sets, old coins etc.
Its when you are hocking stuff that isn’t at an all time price high that you know that person is in trouble financially.
The U.S. housing market is going to face a price correction “worse than 2008,” according to housing analyst Melody Wright, who expects home prices to drop in half as soon as next year.
https://www.newsweek.com/price-correction-worse-2008-housing-market-analyst-11103703?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1764067905
Wrong. This isn’t the GFC.
This is GREATER FINANCIAL CRISIS. Or maybe the Golden Financial Crisis
Refer back to the Mish article on the birth vs death rate
What’s with the downvotes over this?
I see a couple of terse replies that don’t say enough for me to understand why Melody is wrong or why posting the link is wrong.
Lotsa people don’t want to hear what they don’t want to hear.
Each of us has stakes on the table in this, however it turns out. My winning or losing doesn’t become more probable by my reactiveness expressed to various views here, my mocking tone, etc. That’s the beauty, or maybe the horror, of reality: it punches through all that, it sorts all that. Just add time.
No one is talking about sky rocketing foreclosures or auto repossessions. On the latter, it looks like there was massive fraud on loans and the alleged assets they were backed by, potentially creating another GFC of domino defaults.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JKsQz5Vg-Os
What else did you expect when clowns run government?
Large percentages of very small numbers, could be noise, probably not, but could be.
Trump’s openly expressed view was always more comfort with a hyped up, go-go, hot-running, gambler’s style of economy, finance and credit use. And when was that common? Gee, 1920s, 2000s.
Great news. House prices dropping 50% would benefit the country immensely.
I agree. My young friends with decent jobs could buy a home. The middle-aged who purchased during the last run-up should be ok due to low interest rates/mortgage payments.
Just have to see how it all shakes out. Mid next year will tell the story.
That would be pretty fast. My understanding is the housing market tends to move more slowly. What’s going to suddenly force all the folks stuck with 2% mortgages to sell en masse?